Mini Guide - Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2023

Paul Ferguson plus guest authors

Welcome PAUL FERGUSON

Welcome to the 24th edition of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, which is – once again – brought to you in association with Fitzdares.

WE head into this year’s spring festivals on the back of somewhat of an interrupted season, with sustained cold spells during December and January following on from a relatively dry autumn The season has, therefore, had a stop-start feel to it at times, so it is very much hoped that the weather plays ball in the coming weeks and we get nice ground at both Cheltenham and Aintree.

The 2022 Cheltenham Festival was dominated by one man, Willie Mullins The trainer was responsible for no fewer than 10 winners last year and heads to Cheltenham with an enviable team of horses In an ordinary year, 2022 County Hurdle winner, State Man – who has been unbeaten in four Grade 1s since – would be arriving in Gloucestershire as a warm favourite and a most likely winner of the Champion Hurdle. But, 2023 is no ordinary year. Standing in his way is Constitution Hill, the 22-length winner of last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – he looks something very special and could well light up the opening day.

If Nicky Henderson’s Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle winner is the most exciting hurdler around, then Mullins’ Galopin des Champs could be classed as his chasing equivalent Winner of the 2021 Martin Pipe, he was all set to put Bob Olinger to the sword in last year’s Turners when disaster struck He will bid to become the third seven-year-old winner of the Gold Cup in seven years and the first Irish Gold Cup winner to complete the double since Sizing John started that run

As always, the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide covers all 28 races at the meeting, with dissected trends and statistics for each and every contest In addition, the Grand National meeting at Aintree is again covered in detail, with the 11 Grade 1s described in similar format, as well the Grand National itself

There is much more inside, too. Among other features, I have come up with a dozen Spring Horses To Follow – in the format of Jumpers To Follow – and there is (as always) some excellent contribution from five highly-respected broadcasters/writers Racing TV’s Jess Stafford has once again written her Breeding Angles feature, this year delving even deeper, whilst Donn McClean takes an in-depth look at the challenge from across the water, in The Irish View. Graham Cunningham tackles The Big Talking Points, Rory Delargy is back with Banker or Bust and Sam Turner again chips in with his Daily Tips

I would like to thank all those who have contributed in some way towards this year’s Guide – including my colleagues in head office at Weatherbys and Cornelius Lysaght, who has penned the Foreword on behalf of our kind sponsors, Fitzdares – and also to each and every one of you, for purchasing a copy I sincerely hope you enjoy the pages that you are about to read and even more so, thoroughly enjoy the feast of racing that comes our way from Cheltenham in March. And, not to forget Aintree – nobody should ever forget Aintree (said the ‘Scouser’)

Best wishes, Paul.

The Cheltenham Festival Betting

The Irish View

BY DONN McCLEAN

CHAMPIONSHIP RACES

CHAMPION HURDLE

THE order in Ireland was on the cusp of change when they lined up for the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, when State Man was sent off as favourite just in front of Honeysuckle And that change was confirmed when State Man won, making all the running and coming almost five lengths clear of the remarkable mare.

Honeysuckle was gallant in defeat, she kept on willingly to retain the runner-up spot, but she just couldn’t close the gap on her younger rival. State Man was only a year old when Honeysuckle won her Point-to-Point.

The crowds assembled before the race to send Honeysuckle and Rachael Blackmore out onto Leopardstown’s racecourse for the final time, and they packed deep at the runner-up’s spot when they came back in to give her the reception that she deserved Whatever the final act is now, whether or not this was it, her achievements have been staggering, a glittering career, expertly managed by Henry de Bromhead and continually produced at concert pitch, unbeaten in her first 16 races, and ridden with simple precision in each of them by Rachael Black-

more Together, they have been box office, they have been a flagbearer for racing for years.

State Man will almost probably have to improve again if he is going to beat the monster that is Constitution Hill, but there is every chance that he will improve Last year’s County Hurdle winner, Willie Mullins’ horse was better in winning the Matheson Hurdle than he was in winning the Morgiana Hurdle, and he was better again in winning the Irish Champion Hurdle.

He made all the running, and that was new. It added an extra arrow to his quiver for the Champion Hurdle battle. His jumping was slick too. He is developing into a top class hurdler, and he is a contender for sure

Vauban was just over four lengths behind State Man in the Matheson Hurdle, and he got no closer to his stable companion in the Irish Champion Hurdle It can be difficult for last year’s juveniles when they step into open company. Vauban is going to have to improve again if he is going to be a Champion Hurdle contender, but he was the outstanding juvenile last year, and he deserves his place in a Champion Hurdle line-up.

Donn McClean is chief racing writer for The Sunday Times (Ireland). A three-time nominee for the HWPA racing writer of the year award, he writes a weekly column for The Irish Field and for Sporting Life, and he has ghost-written four racing autobiographies. He is also an analyst with Racing TV, and he does a weekly racing slot with RTE Radio.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

JUST when you think that there is clarity in the Champion Chase pool, along comes an event (say: race) that muddies the waters again.

Edwardstone won the Tingle Creek, then unseated in the Desert Orchid Chase. Energumene won the Hilly Way, then got beaten in the Clarence House Chase. Edwardstone beat Energumene in that Clarence House Chase, but he couldn’t beat Editeur

du Gite

Blue Lord looked like a two-and-a-half-miler, a Ryanair Chase horse, when he won the Clonmel Oil Chase. Then he won the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase and, in a heartbeat, he was a Champion Chase contender. Then he got beaten by Gentleman de Mee in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, and you scratched your head again.

Energumene is the reigning Champion Chaser True, it was an unusual Champion Chase that he won last year, run on soft ground with Shishkin pulling up, but we knew that he was top class even before then, he had only been beaten once over fences beforehand, and that was in that epic duel with Shishkin at Ascot. He looked as good as ever in winning the Hilly Way Chase on his debut this season, and he will obviously be a massive player again.

Blue Lord will have to bounce back from his Dublin Chase defeat if he is going to be involved He does have almost eight lengths to find with Edwardstone on their running in the Arkle last season, but he looked like an improved horse when he won the Clonmel Oil, and again when he dropped back down to an extended two miles over Christmas. Maybe he was just taken out of his comfort zone by Gentleman de Mee, and he still has the option to step back up in trip for the Ryanair.

There is a chance, however, that Gentleman de Mee has been under-rated in all of this It was understandable that he was allowed go off at a fairly big price for the Dublin Chase, given that he had been well beaten in all three runs this season before then But it may be that he is simply a spring horse. His improvement last season all came in the spring, on spring ground

He won his beginners’ chase at Thurles last February by 34 lengths, before winning the Grade 3 Flyingbolt Chase by 16. Then he went to Aintree and beat Edwardstone on merit in the Grade 1 Maghull Chase.

Edwardstone may have under-performed a little that day, after winning the Arkle, but only a little. And back in third was Third Time Lucki, who had, like Gentleman de Mee, skipped Cheltenham and gone straight to Aintree, after finishing a close-up

second behind Edwardstone in the Kingmaker Chase two months earlier.

Gentleman de Mee was well beaten when sent off as favourite for Galopin des Champs’ Martin Pipe Hurdle on his only run at Cheltenham, and that is in the back of your mind, but he is a more mature horse now and, on normal Champion Chase-type ground, he could run a big race

RYANAIR CHASE

IT IS a real shame that Allaho was ruled out of the Ryanair Chase Winner of the race in 2021 and 2022, no horse has won the race three times and he was a warm order to win the race again this year at the time that he was ruled him out of the race Allaho’s absence opens the race up. It increases the probability that Allaho’s trainer Willie Mullins will step Blue Lord back up in trip Simon Munir & Isaac Souede’s horse looked like a potential Ryanair Chase horse when he won the Clonmel Oil Chase, but he showed lots of pace in winning the Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas over an extended two miles. He was beaten by Gentleman de Mee in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, however, and a step back up to the intermediate trip could see him re-discover his best form.

Fakir d’Oudairies could also take his chance. Joseph O’Brien’s horse skipped Cheltenham last year, he went straight from the Ascot Chase to Aintree for the Melling Chase, and he won both He may have been a slightly fortuitous winner of the Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase at Thurles last time, Haut en Couleurs looked a likely winner when he came down at the final fence, but he still kept on well up the run-in to win well in the end.

Fury Road finished third in the Irish Gold Cup after picking up in front at the final fence and, a close-up third in the 2020 Albert Bartlett Hurdle, the Ryanair Chase distance could be ideal for Gordon Elliott’s horse now. Envoi Allen was well beaten in the King George the last time we saw him, but he was a game winner of the Champion Chase at Down Royal in November, and Henry de Bromhead’s horse is a dual Cheltenham Festival winner.

Haut en Couleurs doesn’t hold an entry in the Ryanair Chase at the time of writing, but he will be a very interesting contender if he is supplemented to the race. Willie Mullins’ horse has won just once over fences but, third in the Triumph Hurdle in 2021 on his first run for the champion trainer, he was in the process of running a big race in the Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase when he came down at the last, and he would be well worth the supplementary entry fee.

Owners Looking To Have Fun Fun Fun In The Spring

OWNERS IN FOCUS – SIMON MUNIR & ISAAC SOUEDE

Leading owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede are no strangers to festival success, with Peace And Co (2015 Triumph Hurdle), Footpad (2018 Arkle Trophy) and Concertista (2020 Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle) having provided the duo with Cheltenham success during the past eight years. However, they seem to have a bigger and stronger squad than ever before with which to attack this year’s meeting.

BETWEEN 17th November and 5th February, Munir and Souede have won three Grade 2s, two Grade 1s and the mare Zambella has chipped in with a brace of Listed race victories. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ eight-year-old could run in the Mares’ Chase again (finished 4th last year), but the pick of their team, however, comes from Ireland, where Blue Lord and El Fabiolo have recorded top-level successes already this term.

Blue Lord won the Clonmel Oil Chase on reappearance and bettered that effort with a brilliant 11-length win at Leopardstown over Christmas. Unable to back that performance up at the Dublin Racing Festival, he has the option of either the Queen Mother Champion Chase or the Ryanair and with Allaho an absentee, the latter might become a more realistic option for the eight-year-old After Cheltenham, Aintree’s Melling Chase could be the ideal race for the son of Blue Bresil

El Fabiolo enjoyed a more fruitful Dublin Racing Festival, where he slammed a stellar-looking field to win the Irish Arkle by 10 lengths and more Given that it was just his second start over fences and only his seventh run over obstacles in his life, it was wildly impressive He was just a neck off Jonbon –when interfered with – at Aintree over hurdles last spring, so the rematch would look to be something to savour on day one of the festival Again, Aintree could be an option after the Arkle, whilst the Grade 1 at Punchestown will probably be on Willie Mullins’ radar. He is clearly a hugely talented novice chaser

In the novice hurdle division, Impaire et Passe –winner of the Moscow Flyer when last seen – tops the list. Still only five, he made a huge impact on his first start in Ireland, when running out a wide-margin winner at Naas and followed up in the Sky Bet-sponsored Grade 2, to provide his trainer with a ninth win in the race since 2009 Vautour and Douvan won the Moscow Flyer en route to Supreme

glory, whilst Mikael d’Haguenet landed the Ballymore on his very next start and the 2m5f contest looks ideal for the son of Diamond Boy. The statistics will tell you that isn’t easy for a five-year-old to win that race, but his slick jumping and a lethal turn of foot could prove to be a potent combination.

Another winner at the Dublin Racing Festival was Fun Fun Fun, who was sporting the silks of Munir and Souede for the first time, when running out a comfortable winner of the Grade 2 Mares’ bumper. Bred (and previously owned) by Patrick Mullins, she had won in a canter on debut at Sligo in October and swept around the field on the homebend, before drawing right away from Lily du Berlais – herself owned by Munir and Souede, and the winner of the same race 12 months earlier – in the closing stages She could now head to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper, or wait for the Nickel Coin, against her own sex, at Aintree. With a four-week gap between meetings, she could easily take in both

Munir and Souede have another live candidate for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper on their hands, in the shape of Navan winner It’s For Me An 8-length winner of a Point-to-Point in their colours, he was trained by Stuart Crawford at the time and made a sparkling debut for team Mullins when sauntering clear to win by 10 lengths, under a motionless Patrick Mullins His jockey suggested afterwards that he doesn’t show an awful lot at home, but the son of Jeu st Eloi – a sire who Jess Stafford touches upon in this year’s Breeding Angles feature – clearly possesses oodles of talent. It has been a while since a horse lacking Graded or Listed experience has won the Weatherbys Champion Bumper – eight years to be precise – but It’s For Me looks to hold sound claims of bucking that particular trend and gives the owners a strong hand in the division

The aforementioned Stuart Crawford plays a big role in the Munir-Souede operation and his Gold Cup Bailly could be capable of running well – at big odds – in the National Hunt Chase. Unsuccessful in three starts over hurdles, he did run into Ahoy Senor and The Real Whacker in a couple of maiden hurdles in the UK during 2021, and has flourished since being sent chasing A winner at Wexford, he was then twice successful at Ayr, before running well in defeat against former high-class hurdler Thomas Darby, at the same track. Rated 139 in Ireland, handicaps will be an option, but this year’s National Hunt Challenge Cup could end up being a relatively small field (again), so he wouldn’t be without a chance He jumps well and would also be of interest in the Scottish National, if the ground came up soft at his favourite track.

James du Berlais, who made a winning chasing debut before finishing a long way behind Mighty Potter at Leopardstown, Hunters Yarn, who is now qualified for the better handicaps in Britain having had the four runs (although after winning a Listed

race at Navan, Willie Mullins suggested that he could be bound for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle), wide-margin maiden hurdle winner Night And Day (likely to run in the Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle), and Nusret are others to note for the joint-owners The latter was handed an entry at Newbury in February, in a race for which the British handicapper gave him a mark of 130 (has an I.H.R.B. rating of 128) and perhaps, they are considering the Fred Winter He has had three runs, so is eligible and has form behind both Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny in the book. It was believed that he needed a right-handed track to be seen at his best, but that Newbury entry might well have been a case of testing the water for the future

After a couple of blank years, it would seem that there is a good chance that Munir and Souede could be back among the festival winners in 2023 and who would back against their first festival double (or more). They certainly appear to have a team to go to war with which most would be (double) green with envy to own.

GOLD CUP BAILLY IN ACTION AT AYR

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2023

UNIBET CHAMPION HURDLE

2m 87y (Grade 1) – Old course

OVERVIEW

THE FEATURE on the opening day and of the whole season in terms of the hurdling division, the Champion Hurdle is the acid test of the 2m-hurdler, in that the ability to travel strongly and hurdle fluently are both key Honeysuckle became the fourth dual winner this century last year, following on from Hardy Eustace, Hurricane Fly and Buveur d’Air Prior to that, the last multiple winner was the mighty Istabraq, who is the last horse to win three Champion Hurdles and the fifth in all. Hatton’s Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War and See You Then also won the race on three consecutive occasions and Henry de Bromhead’s stable star could bid to join those immortals.

WILL HONEYSUCKLE RUN?

FOLLOWING her victories in the past two renewals, Honeysuckle has the opportunity to join the all-time greats by winning a third Champion Hurdle However, having lost her unbeaten record in the Hatton’s Grace and having been beaten 4¾ lengths in the Irish Champion Hurdle, her connections are now leaning towards another crack at the Mares’ Hurdle, as her Cheltenham swansong “Barring accidents, injury, illness or extremes of ground she will be prepared for another tilt at the Mares’ Hurdle” read the tweet from the owner’s racing manager, Peter Molony, which suggests only heavy ground could see her lining up in this race

UNBEATEN THIS SEASON

IN WINNING her second Champion Hurdle last year, Honeysuckle became the eighth successive winner to arrive at Cheltenham unbeaten during the current campaign. Hurricane Fly was also unbeaten in both seasons that he won the Champion Hurdle, so that is 10 of the past 12 winners to tick this box, with only Rock On Ruby and Jezki having suffered reversals earlier in the season, during those past dozen years

Looking solely at those past eight years, only

17 horses have contested the Champion Hurdle having failed to lose earlier in the campaign, so a record of eight wins is particularly strong 2020 winner Epatante was technically unbeaten last term, although she had dead-heated on reappearance at Newcastle, whilst the other in the line-up was Teahupoo, who was attempting to defy the dreaded five-year-old statistic (more of that shortly)

Obviously, those past eight winners had won on their previous start and overall, 28 of the past 33 winners had been successful last time out The aforementioned pairing of Rock On Ruby and Jezki are the only winners during the past 13 years to have won the Champion Hurdle on the back of a defeat Punjabi (2009) and Hardy Eustace, ahead of his first win in the race in 2004, are the only other pair this century to win a Champion Hurdle having been beaten last time out.

MARES’ ALLOWANCE

THE 7LBS sex-allowance that mares receive, not only in the Champion Hurdle but in all top flight contests, is often a bone of contention for many. It has certainly been a discussion point over recent years and whether you are for or against the current

structure, it is plain to see that it is beneficial when a top-class mare comes along. The past three Champion Hurdles have been won by mares and the two who took their chance last year finished first and second Annie Power was also successful in 2016, so that is four winners from just nine runners during the past seven years 2019 is the only year during this period in which mares were represented and failed to win (no representation in 2017 or 2018) and that was actually a surprise at the time, given that Apple’s Jade and Laurina topped the market

AGE

AS TOUCHED upon briefly in an earlier subsection, Teahupoo was unable to overcome the dreaded five-year-old statistic last year and he was one of three five-year-olds to take their chance Zanahiyr finished third and the other was Adagio, taking the tally of that age group to just two winners from 111 runners during the past 36 renewals Since See You Then won the first of his three Champion Hurdles in 1985, only Katchit (2008) and more recently Espoir d’Allen have won the race at the age of five. It is clearly an almighty task for any horse of such slender years and is something that looms large over last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Vauban, who looks to be the pick of that age group at present.

At the other end of the scale, the last doubledigit winner of the Champion Hurdle was Sea Pigeon, who won back-to-back renewals aged 10 and 11 in 1980 and ’81. During those past 40 renewals, horses aged 10 or older are now 0-30, following the sixth placing of Not So Sleepy last year Also during the same 40-year period, only Rooster Booster (2003) and Hurricane Fly some 10 years later, have been successful at the age of nine. That is something which Honeysuckle will need to overcome, if she is to land that third Champion Hurdle

The prime age group for a Champion Hurdle bid is clearly between six and eight. Five eight-yearolds have been successful this century, but 28 of the past 40 winners were aged six or seven, giving those the edge Age does seem to catch up with horses in this division and unless looking at a multiple winner of the race, the statistics suggest that we should focus on the up-and-coming hurdler, in their second or third season.

LIGHTLY-RACED HURDLERS

THAT last sentence leads us on nicely to this subsection. Nine of the past 13 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles, so looking for that horse on the rise is certainly the angle to take, if looking away from a previous winner. Six of

KEY TRENDS

10 of the past 12 winners were unbeaten during the current season (record is 8-17 during the past 8 years)

Mares are 4-9 during the past 7 years

28 of the past 33 winners won last time out

28 of the past 40 winners were aged 6 or 7

14 of the past 24 winners had won at the festival previously

9 of the past 13 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles

9 of the past 14 winners were trained by Nicky Henderson (5) or Willie Mullins (4)

8 of the past 12 winners were outright favourite

6 of the past 11 winners were second-season hurdlers

6 of the past 13 winners were owned by JP McManus (9 winners in total)

6 of the past 14 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle

4 of the past 11 winners finished in the first 3 of the previous year’s Supreme or Ballymore

5yo’s are 2-111 during the past 36 years

10yo’s (or older) are 0-30 during the past 40 years

Only 2 of the past 24 winners had not run at the Cheltenham Festival previously

Only 2 of the past 12 winners had run more than 12 times over hurdles

Only 1 of the past 46 winners regained their crown

Only 1 of the past 19 winners was aged 9 International (Bula) Hurdle winners are 0-13 during the past 19 years

It is 52 years since the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner won the Champion Hurdle the following season

the past 11 winners were second-season hurdlers, whilst prior to last year, only one of the previous dozen winners had run more than 12 times over hurdles, that being Hurricane Fly when reclaiming his crown in 2013. Honeysuckle was successful on her 15th start last season and this will be hurdles start number 19 for Henry de Bromhead’s stablestar if she does indeed turn up

PREVIOUS FESTIVAL FORM

JUST two of the past 24 Champion Hurdle winners had failed to run at an earlier Cheltenham Festival and that should come as little surprise really There are five multiple winners during this time, plus several of the second-season winners will have contested one of the novice hurdles the previous season. Istabraq (1998) started this trend, as he had won the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle in 1997, whilst Hardy Eustace had won the 2003 Ballymore prior to winning the next two Champion Hurdles. More recently, Faugheeen won the Ballymore 12 months before his Champion Hurdle and four of the past 11 winners finished in the first three of either the Ballymore or the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Jezki and Buevur d’Air both finished third in the Supreme the year before they won the Champion (first Champion Hurdle in the case of the latter, obviously), whilst the last winner of the Supreme to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Bula way back in 1971 (won the 1970 Supreme and also won the 1972 Champion Hurdle). More recently, Hors La Loi III (2002) and Brave Inca (2006) were Supreme Novices’ winners, but their victories came four and two years prior to their Champion Hurdle wins, respectively. That is clearly something to think about in relation to Constitution Hill – who was, of course, a brilliant 22-length winner of the Supreme in 2022 – although it should be said that many a recent winner of the first race of the week is sent chasing the following season Nevertheless, 52 years is a long time since it last happened

Given the number of multiple winners of the race, last year’s Champion Hurdle winner warrants respect, whilst both Annie Power and Honeysuckle had contested the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle 12 months before the Champion. The latter obviously won the Mares’ Hurdle prior to her first win in the Champion Hurdle, whilst Annie Power famously fell at the final flight with the race at her mercy How could anyone possibly forget that?

TRAINERS TO NOTE

RATHER like the first two Grade 1s on the card, the Champion Hurdle has – in recent years, at least –been dominated by Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins, who have won nine of the past 14 renewals between them.

With a remarkable eight wins to his name, Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer in Champion Hurdle history. See You Then (1985, 1986, 1987), Punjabi (2009), Binocular (2010), Buveur d’Air (2017, 2018) and Epatante (2020) complete his roll of honour and the last-named mare has hit the frame in each of the past two renewals for the

Seven Barrows team. It could be that she again takes her chance, although she has the option of running in the Mares' Hurdle, having twice been beaten by stable-mate Constitution Hill already this season The latter is Henderson's number one this year

Willie Mullins won four renewals in the space of six years, between 2011 and 2016 Hurricane Fly was successful in 2011 and again in 2013, whilst the Susannah Ricci-owned pairing of Faugheen and Annie Power provided the all-conquering trainer with back-to-back victories. Appreciate It finished a disappointing seventh last year, with stable-mate Saint Roi performing better, taking fourth spot under Mark Walsh Although Mullins has gone six years without a win in the race, Melon and Sharjah both finished runner-up on two occasions since and his runners, as ever, have to be respected. The improving State Man is his principal contender this year

Henry de Bromhead has been responsible for the past two winners, but of course, courtesy of the same mare.

REGAINING THE CROWN

HURRICANE Fly is the only horse since Comedy Of Errors (1975) to regain his title and it once again proved to be a difficult task for Epatante last year, although a mistake at the final flight certainly didn’t help her chance

GREEN AND GOLD GLORY

LEADING owner JP McManus has won a remarkable nine Champion Hurdles, with the first three achieved by the hat-trick of Istabraq (1998, 1999, 2000). Since then, Binocular, Jezki, Buveur d’Air (x2), Espoir d’Allen and Epatante have provided McManus with a further half-dozen titles since 2010 He had two runners last year, with Epatante finishing second and Saint Roi in fourth, and it is clearly a division in which he likes to be represented. My Tent Or Yours finished runner-up in his green and gold silks on three occasions between 2014 and 2017, and since 1998, he has had 35 runners in the race, so nine winners is a remarkable 26% strikerate 43% of his runners during this period have finished in the first three.

MARKET FORCES

HONEYSUCKLE has justified favouritism in each of the past two years, as did Epatante in 2020. Since Hurricane Fly won his first Champion Hurdle in 2011 (11-4 favourite), eight of the past 12 favourites have been successful Buveur d’Air was odds-on to land his second Champion, having won his first as the

5-1 second-favourite, and during the past 13 years, 11 winners were sent off at single figures.

Following his imperious display in Newcastle's Fighting Fifth Hurdle on reappearance, this year's ante-post market has been completely dominated by Constitution Hill

KEY RACES

SIX of the past 14 winners had contested the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, making it the most noteworthy ‘key race’ domestically. The past two English-trained winners – Epatante and Buveur d’Air (second time) – were successful in the Boxing Day Grade 1, whilst Faugheen travelled to England to win the 2014 Christmas Hurdle Prior to that, Punjabi (2008-09 season), Binocular (2009-10) and Rock On Ruby (2011-12) were all beaten at Kempton before winning the Champion Hurdle, less than three months later. Constitution Hill won this season's Christmas Hurdle by 17 lengths.

Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle is the first Grade 1 of the season over 2m in England and Punjabi, Binocular and Buveur d’Air (when reigning Champion) all started their season in the NorthEast. It is, therefore, clear that Nicky Henderson likes to follow a similar path with his Champion Hurdle hopefuls (there aren’t too many options to be fair) and this season's race was again won by Henderson, with Constitution Hill

Sandown’s Contenders Hurdle is another race which Henderson liked to use and Binocular used that race as his final prep before winning the 2010 Champion Hurdle, as did Buveur d’Air ahead of his two wins Much to Henderson's dismay, the race was removed from the 2023 fixture list.

And, two Champion Hurdle winners in the past 11 years – Rock On Ruby and Epatante – started their season in handicap company, both successful in the Gerry Feilden Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Newbury’s Winter Carnival Henderson also took that race this season with First Street.

One race which is a poor guide to the Champion Hurdle is the International Hurdle, from Cheltenham in December Formerly known as the ‘Bula’ this race is staged on the stiffer New course and over an additional 92 yards, so is often more of a stamina test, especially as it is usually staged on soft ground. Katchit finished runner-up in the 2007 International, before winning the Champion Hurdle three months later, whilst the last horse to complete the double is Rooster Booster during the 2002-2003 campaign. Since then, 13 winners of the International Hurdle have taken their chance in the Champion and all have been beaten This season's Grade 2 was lost during the pre-Christmas cold spell.

Over in Ireland, Honeysuckle has taken the same route back to Cheltenham in each of the past two seasons, winning the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle – over 2m4f – on reappearance, before landing the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival in February Hurricane Fly won the Irish Champion the twice before he won his two Champion Hurdles, whilst Jezki finished only fourth in that race, before landing the 2014 Champion. The lastnamed was also successful in the Hatton’s Grace, as was Hurricane Fly during the 2010-2011 season, ahead of his first Champion Hurdle success. Honeysuckle finished only third in this season’s Hatton’s Grace, a race which was won by Stayers’ Hurdle hope Teahupoo, and she was beaten by State Man in the Irish Champion Hurdle

The Matheson Hurdle – at Leopardstown over Christmas – is the other notable Grade 1 over the minimum trip in Ireland and both Hurricane Fly (won twice) and Jezki (2nd) contested that race, also Honeysuckle tends to have a mid-season break at that point, so again skipped the December contest, which was won this season by State Man.

Finally, the Morgiana Hurdle is the opening Grade 1 over 2m in Ireland, although Hurricane Fly (ahead of his second win) is the only recent winner to have started their campaign at Punchestown in mid-November. In fact, the last winner before him to have run in the Morgiana was Brave Inca in the 2005-06 season State Man also won the Morgiana and as he did in the Matheson, led home a 1-2-3 for Willie Mullins

STATE MAN WINS LAST YEAR'S COUNTY HURDLE

The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide

ROLL OF HONOUR

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES

Hatton’s Grace Hurdle 3 (Jezki 1st, Honeysuckle 1st & 1st)

*David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle 2 (Annie Power fell, Honeysuckle 1st)

*Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2 (Jezki 3rd, Buveur d'Air 3rd)

Christmas Hurdle 3 (Faugheen 1st, Buveur d'Air 1st, Epatante 1st)

*Champion Hurdle 3 (Hurricane Fly 3rd, Buveur d'Air 1st, Honeysuckle 1st)

Irish Champion Hurdle 4 (Hurricane Fly 1st, Jezki 4th, Honeysuckle 1st & 1st)

Matheson Hurdle 2 (Hurricane Fly 1st, Jezki 2nd)

Punchestown Champion Hurdle 2 (Hurricane Fly 1st, Honeysuckle 1st)

* denotes previous season

CONSTITUTION HILL EN ROUTE TO WINNING THE FIGHTING FIFTH

Leading Contenders

CONSTITUTION HILL Trainer: Nicky Henderson

A runaway winner of last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the six-year-old has won the Fighting Fifth (by 12l) and the Christmas Hurdle (by 17l) this season and looks to be something very special. Tactically versatile, he is professional enough to make the running if necessary, but would likely improve again given a strong pace to aim at Handles any ground and at this stage, it is hard to find any holes in him A very short price, but thoroughly deserves that market position and should be very hard to beat.

STATE MAN Trainer: Willie Mullins

Won the County Hurdle at last year’s festival and has since won all four starts in Grade 1 company. Winner of the Morgiana, Matheson and Irish Champion Hurdle, he has confirmed himself to be the leading 2m-hurdler in Ireland and would appear to be the chief threat to Constitution Hill Rather like his main market rival, he ticks plenty of boxes, arriving at Cheltenham unbeaten for the season and being a second-season hurdler from one of the dominant stables in the race. He looks sure to run a huge race.

VAUBAN Trainer: Willie Mullins

Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, he made an encouraging reappearance behind State Man over Christmas, but was beaten a length further in the Irish Champion Hurdle and it is difficult to see him turning that form around A smooth-travelling horse, he doesn’t jump as fluently as the top two in the betting and that might be even more noticeable in this company. 5yo’s notoriously struggle in the Champion Hurdle and it is difficult to see him bucking the trend, unless anything happens to the ‘big two’

HONEYSUCKLE Trainer: Henry De Bromhead

As per the opening subsection, it seems highly unlikely that she will run here, unless we get heavy ground. If she were to line up, it would be – without doubt – her stiffest task to date Reversing Irish Champion Hurdle form would look difficult enough, without considering the looming presence of Constitution Hill, so the Mares’ Hurdle looks to be the sensible call A top-class performer, she ran a very brave race at Leopardstown, keeping on strongly after looking like dropping away Sadly, however, age even catches up with the very best

EPATANTE Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Winner of the 2020 Champion Hurdle, she has finished placed in the past two renewals and was beaten only 3½ lengths last year No match for stable-mate Constitution Hill at Newcastle or Kempton, she bolted up at Doncaster, confirming that she retains plenty of her ability The Mares’ Hurdle remains an option, although she has more than earned the right to have a fourth crack at the Champion Hurdle. Whilst it is difficult to see her beating Constitution Hill, she would again hold sound place claims.

SHARJAH Trainer: Willie Mullins

Represents the same connections as Vauban and is actually a year older than Honeysuckle Brought-down in the 2019 Champion Hurdle, he then finished runner-up in both 2021 and 2022, and missed last year’s race through injury Beaten 4 lengths by State Man in the Morgiana, he was 9¼ lengths off his stable-mate over Christmas, when he was looking to win a fifth successive Matheson Hurdle Freshened up since, he is another who will come from off the pace, in an attempt to pick up the pieces and hit the frame again.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2023 - DAY 1

The Big Talking Points

BY GRAHAM CUNNINGHAM

HUGHIE’S WORDS RESONATE AS FESTIVAL PIECES FALL INTO PLACE

‘FOR an addict like me, trying to affect blasé composure through the final days before the Cheltenham Festival is nearly always a doomed struggle.’ Legendary late sporting scribe Hugh McIlvanney spoke for many back in 2003 and that feeling persists even though the pivotal week in the jumps calendar isn’t what it once was.

Three days became four in 2005 and the meeting has continued to evolve, with Ireland dominating, ante post markets stagnating and plenty insisting the Festival brew has lost some fizz.

They clearly have a point but at least plans for a five-day Festival – which looked odds on during a lengthy consultation – have been put to rest. Time moves on but the third week in March remains one of those rare times when the real world goes on hold

Hughie joined the throng on day one in 2003 and was treated to a six-race card that featured Back In Front beating Kicking King in a vintage 19-runner Supreme and Azertyuiop and Rooster Booster trouncing eight and 16 rivals in the Arkle and the Champion Hurdle

You can have any price about those three contests delivering similar fields this year but, dread phrase alert, we are where we are. Affect blasé composure all you want but you can be certain the siren call of Cheltenham will lure us all in again.

The cast list for Cheltenham 2023 is taking shape - and the struggle to find the right horse in the right race will intensify with every day over the next two weeks.

WHAT’S CHANGED SINCE 2022?

SHELVING the five-day plan is a blessing and local councillor Max Wilkinson wants a ‘War on Wee’ using special hydrophobic paint that causes embarrassing splashback for anyone tempted to take relief on walls near the racecourse.

Good luck to the bold councillor in trying to solve that particular (Jimmy) riddle but one thing that hasn’t changed is the domination of a small

core of trainers and their tendency to run elite jumpers no more than necessary from one spring to another

That core – Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry De Bromhead and Nicky Henderson – account for well over half of all Festival winners over the last five years.

The fact that those four supplied seventeen of twenty in the first four of the betting for the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Ryanair, Stayers’ Hurdle and Gold Cup last year is revealing. But the fact that those twenty horses averaged just over two runs each in the season leading up to the Festival is alarming.

You won’t be shocked to hear the same pattern will play out this year and perhaps that doesn’t bother you. After all, why would you pine for days when backing one Festival winner was a feat when you can don your Peaky Blinders gear and pose with a £7.50 Guinness before unloading on a raft of good things at skinny odds?

But the one thing old and young can surely agree on is that anyone trying to sort the hawks from the pigeons at the modern Festival is dealing with a worryingly thin data set.

It won’t stop people betting like heroes as winter turns to spring again but the idea that mature jumpers weighing 1200lb plus can’t endure more than two pre-Cheltenham runs is perverse Yes, the layaway lads will have their top guns primed again. But I have a very hard time believing their uber-cautious strategy will help jumping in the long term

HISTORY BECKONS AS HILL BIDS FOR HALL OF FAME

THE area connecting Hyde Park Corner with the west end of The Mall has seen some action in its time, including three assassination attempts on Queen Victoria and former Conservative PM Sir Robert Peel sustaining fatal injuries when falling from his horse.

But the horse named in honour of Constitution Hill is making history of his own nowadays and his presence in the Unibet Champion Hurdle can get the 2023 Festival off to an explosive start

Renowned racing journalist and broadcaster, Graham is a regular presenter/pundit on Racing TV.

One of few advantages of getting older is that you have vivid recollections of past greats like Night Nurse, Sea Pigeon, Monksfield and Istabraq. It sticks in the craw to place a six-year-old with just five starts in such rare company but think back to last year’s Supreme, when Nicky Henderson’s gelding left jaws dropping and time experts shaking heads in wonder as he left high-class stablemate Jonbon trailing to smash Annie Power’s track record.

spot of choice for various aggrieved Earls and Baronets. Time will tell whether we see one of Cheltenham’s famous showdowns up the hill on March 14th - but that duel will surely be one sided if Constitution Hill brings his brilliant best to Cheltenham again.

SPIRIT OF ’84 REVIVED AS ARKLE STARS SQUARE OFF

WHAT were you doing in the spring of 1984?

Nicky Henderson was preparing the delicate but ultimately brilliant See You Then to finish second in the Triumph; a youthful amateur called W P Mullins was driving the near-white Macs Friendly home for his father Paddy in the National Hunt Chase; and Bobsline was gearing up to win a thrilling duel with Noddy’s Ryde in a vintage Arkle Chase.

Henderson and Mullins have dominated the last decade of the Sporting Life Arkle with four wins apiece by aces like Sprinter Sacre, Altior, Shishkin, Douvan and Un De Sceaux.

Memorable Anglo-Irish clashes have been in short supply of late but this year’s race carries echoes of Bobsline v Noddy’s Ryde as Jonbon and El Fabiolo square off for a second time.

And, if you need confirmation that something freakish is among us, then look at the way Constitution Hill rampaged clear of the 2020 Champion Hurdle winner Epatante in Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth and Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle

What this gelding has done over the last year feels like something without precedent. The dazzling Golden Cygnet – who destroyed his Supreme rivals in 1978 and was about to beat Night Nurse and Sea Pigeon in the Scottish Champion Hurdle until sustaining fatal injuries at the last – is the most striking comparison.

For context, Constitution Hill’s Timeform rating of 177p is just 3lb behind Monksfield and Istabraq and 5lb behind Night Nurse. To hit that level so swiftly is astounding and, for all that some of my most abiding jumping memories relate to hurdling’s golden era, I suspect all those greats would have had their hands full against hurdling’s new superstar.

Of course, any horse can make a mistake or have an off day and State Man, who continued his relentless progress with authority in the Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle, would be a worthy Champion Hurdle favourite in most years. But this is no ordinary year

Incidentally, that famous strip of land connecting Hyde Park with The Mall was once the duelling

Jonbon came out just on top in round one, travelling with his usual zest then digging deep to land Aintree’s Top Novices’ Hurdle by a neck, but what happened over hurdles is less relevant than this season’s chasing evidence

El Fabiolo is cast in the Bobsline role following his emphatic win in a strongly-run Goffs Irish Arkle in which he forged well clear of a high-class field, while Jonbon looked an ideal Arkle type only to lose some fans when jumping right and having to work much harder than expected to beat sole rival Calico in Warwick’s Kingmaker Novices’ Chase.

But maybe we are getting ahead of ourselves assuming this year’s Arkle is a match. El Fabiolo’s Leopardstown win was commanding, though a repeat of the blunder he made four out could be costly Meanwhile, Henderson is “looking on the bright side” for Jonbon in the belief he will return to his smooth travelling best in a bigger field at Cheltenham

Cards on the table, I went to Warwick hoping the Kingmaker would produce a novice king in waiting again. Jonbon was very good to the eye and on the clock in Sandown’s Henry VIII Chase, which remains the run to judge him on. I still think he might have the edge on El Fabiolo but a confusing Kingmaker has opened the door. And Irish Arkle fourth Dysart Dynamo, who had good young chasers strung out a long way from home at Leopardstown, is starting to control his fierce aggression in a manner that

CONSTITUTION HILL WINS THE 2022 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

suggests he can set them all a target over a shorter trip on March 14th .

SUPREME SCRIPT IN SHREDS – SO WHO WILL STAR NOW?

IT TOOK four minutes in the late-afternoon Leopardstown sunshine for a Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle script that had been months in the making to be consigned to the bin

The unbeaten Facile Vega, a son of six-time Festival winner Quevega and subject of rave reviews from his normally guarded handler, was odds on to give Mullins his eighth Supreme winner as the tapes went up for the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at a little after 3.40 on February 5th

But things went south in a hurry. Some suggested good ground was against him, others that he was simply too fierce for Paul Townend while forcing a severe gallop. The latter excuse is certainly backed up by the clock but, either way, it was jarring to see Facile Vega shrivel to nothing as stablemate Il Etait Temps waltzed clear under Danny Mullins.

One firm pushed Facile Vega out to 6-1 for a short while and this year’s Supreme has suddenly become a race with multiple questions hanging over it.

Can Facile Vega bounce back?

HE clearly needs to relax and recover from lameness discovered after his first defeat but it’s worth giving him a pass Mullins wants Facile Vega “ridden like a racehorse rather than a machine” next time Debate will continue as to future tactics. But his Leopardstown Christmas win makes me very wary of writing him down

Has Il Etait Temps been under rated?

THAT depends on whether he improved on his good second, beaten fair and square, to Facile Vega over Christmas That Future Champions Novice Hurdle form has been franked and franked again – which is another reason to think it would be folly to dismiss a Facile revival

How good is Marine Nationale?

HARD to say but he’s unbeaten in four and quickened well to overcome a last-flight error in the Royal Bond back in December. Trainer Barry Connell is adamant he will be even better on spring ground, so he’s intriguing, for sure.

Glorious HD?

NOT if High Definition keeps jumping like each hurdle is the first one he’s seen. The former Derby favourite departed at halfway after exchanging blows with Facile Vega at Leopardstown and needs to sharpen up his technique in a big way.

How strong is the home challenge?

TAHMURAS and Chasing Fire are unbeaten in three after decisive wins but, rated 138 and 136, are still a fair way from the level usually required But Henderson faces an intriguing choice with Luccia, who has looked very good and would receive a very handy 7lb if let loose against the boys

HERE COME THE GIRLS – BUT WHICH ONES?

IT’S a rum job when equine stars start ducking and diving in and out of the Festival race that’s become the natural home for duckers and divers

Honeysuckle was a Close Bothers Mares’ Hurdle candidate until connections remembered she’s a dual Champion Hurdle winner; and her predecessor Epatante was supposed to be in but is out until the supplementary stage after Henderson forgot to enter her

Brandy Love has been out since last April but has been in favour with ante-post punters who trust the magic of Mullins; last year’s winner Marie’s Rock has been in tremendous form but could be out if Hendo gets tempted by the Stayers’; and hokey cokey Honeysuckle is back in the mix after her Irish Champion Hurdle second with connections opting for a last hurrah.

Theatre Glory was another to miss out at the original stage but could leap in after an impressive Warwick win, while last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle winner Love Envoi will be back in the picture after drying ground ruled her out at Warwick

LUCCIA

S P R I N G HORSES TO FOLLOW 20 23

5yo The Gurkha –

Trainer Nicky

Henderson

Possible Cheltenham Target

Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Earth Amber (Hurricane Run)

Owner

Pump & Plant Services Ltd

Possible Target Elsewhere

Top Novices’ Hurdle

UNBEATEN in two starts in bumpers last season, she beat the 125-rated Blow Your Wad on debut and had Eabha Grace (a 30-length winner at Punchestown in January) 17 lengths away in second, when winning a Listed bumper at Sandown on soft ground

She confirmed the promise when winning a Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle at Newbury on debut, when jumping well to beat a couple of subsequent winners in taking fashion. That run also proved her ability to handle a sounder surface and she was an intended runner in the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle in early-January, only to miss the race due to an unsatisfactory scope

Given time to recover, she headed to Exeter the following month, where she maintained her unbeaten record and beat the boys for the first time. Despite not hurdling as fluently, it was an emphatic victory and one which sees her now, rightfully, sit at the head of the Dawn Run betting.

Whilst the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle remains a possibility – and she certainly wouldn’t be out of place in that Grade 1 – the mares’ route seems most likely. If all goes well at Cheltenham, the Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree could offer her the chance of top-level success before the season is out. The daughter of The Gurkha remains hugely exciting.

MONBEG GENIUS

7yo Shantou – Ella Watson (Supreme Leader)

Trainer

Jonjo O’Neill

Possible Cheltenham Target

Ultima / Kim Muir

Owner

Barrowman Racing Limited

Possible Target Elsewhere

Midlands / Scottish National

WINNER of his last three starts, Monbeg Genius is a rapidly-improving young staying chaser and Jonjo O’Neill’s novice might be capable of landing a nice prize before the season is out.

Only fourth, over an inadequate trip, at Aintree on debut, he won off 122 at Newcastle, before twice winning at Chepstow Successful at the Welsh venue over hurdles last spring, he is clearly well-suited to the track and readily saw off four rivals on his most recent start, travelling kindly on the front-end. Value for more than the winning margin, he got in tight when allowed to pop the final fence and the handicapper saw fit to raise him 5lbs for this, so he heads into the spring on a mark of 137.

That rating would give his connections the option of either the Ultima or Kim Muir at Cheltenham, but a galloping track seems to suit him well and he could, therefore, instead be considered for either the Midlands National or the Scottish equivalent at Ayr. The same stable won the former with a similar type in 2021 – Time To Get Up, who actually made his debut in the same race at Aintree – so it could be that Uttoxeter is the preferred option. Given his record at the track, the Welsh Grand National next Christmas might be a long-term aim.