Big Race Trends: The Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup

BIG RACE TRENDS THE WEATHERBYS HAMILTON LONSDALE CUP (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (GROUP 2)

PREVIOUS WINNERS - LAST TEN RUNNINGS Year Winner Trainer Jockey SP

2019 Stradivarius John Gosden Frankie Dettori 4/9F 2018 Stradivarius John Gosden Frankie Dettori 4/11F 2017 Montaly Andrew Balding P J McDonald 16/1 2016 Quest For More Roger Charlton George Baker 9/2 2015 Max Dynamite W P Mullins Frankie Dettori 8/1 2014 Pale Mimosa D K Weld Pat Smullen 2/1F 2013 Ahzeemah Saeed bin Suroor Silvestre De Sousa 4/1 2012 Times Up John Dunlop William Buick 11/1 2011 Opinion Poll Mahmood Al Zarooni Frankie Dettori 3/1F 2010 Opinion Poll Michael Jarvis Frankie Dettori 9/2

Runners Time

4 ran 3m 27.06s 9 ran 3m 29.69s 9 ran 3m 31.06s 7 ran 3m 32.57s 8 ran 3m 33.09s 7 ran 3m 31.52s 7 ran 3m 34.75s 11 ran 3m 34.64s 10 ran 3m 32.48s 8 ran 3m 34.84s

Going

G/F G/F G G/F G/S G G/S G/S G G

AGE

Although three-year-olds are eligible for the Lonsdale Cup, the Classic generation easily have the worst record in the race. The last runner they had in the race was Il Paradiso last year and they're not represented this time around. When it comes to positives, the most successful age group are the five-year-olds who have taken four of the last ten renewals, a plus for Enbihaar, who is the only five-year-old in this year's contest.

TRAINER

John Gosden has won this twice thanks to Stradivarius in the past two years but with the brilliant Chestnut on a path to the Arc this year, Enbihaar represents the master of Clarehaven.

BETTING

Montaly triumphed in 2017 at odds of 16/1 and whilst Millenary (12/1) and Times Up (11/1) have also provided small shocks, they have proved the exception rather than the rule as those towards the head of the market have enjoyed the most success. There have been three winning favourites in the last ten renewals and the average winning SP during the same time is around 5/1.

RECENT FORM

Stayers tend to mature as the season goes on and therefore it isn’t completely surprising to note that only three recent winners of this race had been successful on their previous start. However, only two of the last ten winners of this race had not achieved a top four finish last time which suggests that it is the form horses coming into the race that are the group to focus on.

CLASS

Opinion Poll, Pale Mimosa, Max Dynamite and most recently Montaly all went on to win the Lonsdale Cup having not contested a Group race on their most recent start, but on the whole these are exceptional in that respect. Every other winner contested either a Group 1 or 2 contest on their previous outing, including last year's winner, Stradivarius, who took the Group 1 Goodwood Cup, as he did this year, illustrating the high quality nature of this race.

KEY TRENDS

Finished in the first four last time Contested a Group 1 or 2 on their latest outing Focus on those towards the head of the betting

CONCLUSION

With no Stradivarius in opposition, this looks a golden opportunity for the admirable NAYEF ROAD to score for Mark Johnston's Yorkshire yard. His two seconds to the great chestnut in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and in the Goodwood Cup are the best bits of form available and he's set to go well. It won't be easy though, with the progressive Enbihaar in receipt of the 3lb mares' allowance on her first run at two miles. She was a facile winner of the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes over 1m 6f at Glorious Goodwood and this trip could unlock further improvement for this classy mare. Don't count out the four-year-old Dashing Willoughby either - the Andrew Balding-trained stayer is unbeaten this season, including a Group 3 Henry II Stakes triumph at Sandown Park, and can make his presence felt.