Positive end to turbulent season
Wail farmer Jeremy Barber finished harvest last week, ending a turbulent season. A late start, patchy late rain and hailstorms gave producers mixed results across the region. Mr Barber, in his scepter wheat crop, said his harvest met his average. Story, page 51.
Picture: PAUL CARRACHER
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Harvest a surprise packet
BY BRONWYN HASTINGS
Farmers across the state have produced a ‘surprising’ average harvest for the year, following winter-long doubt and adversity in a late break, hailstorms and frosts.
Warracknabeal farmer Richard Wilken said there seemed to be more in the paddocks than first thought.
“In general, and considering the amount of rain we’ve had, people are quietly surprised,” he said.
“There are certainly some quite reasonable areas, some average areas, and some below-average areas – and frost has been an issue in some of the low-lying areas, which has proven to be a little bit disappointing.”
Mr Wilken is among those finishing harvest before Christmas – Wail’s Jeremy Barber finished last week, and was also pleasantly surprised by his harvest’s result.
“It’s probably about average, but it’s a lot better than we thought it was going to be,” he said.
“We’ve had some pretty poor crops, but some crops have been outstanding. This last crop, scepter wheat, is fantastic.
“I can’t really say yet what it’s yielding, but I’m really happy with it.”
Mr Barber, who also owns land at Jeparit, said he found the rain to be patchy between his two properties.
“Some areas got a lot more than others – I got 100 millimetres more here at Wail than I did up there,” he said.
Taking a broader view, GrainCorp national operations manager Jason Shanley said Queensland had a ‘dream weather run’ with no
major rain delays until the end of the season.
“Looking to the far north, our Goondiwindi cluster alone took over a million tonnes, it was a very solid harvest up there, we are very happy with the result,” he said.
Mr Shanley said northern New South Wales had a bumper harvest, while the south of the state had been more of a ‘mixed bag’.
“They are still going in some areas, but SFW1 is the prominent grade we’re going with from a downgrade perspective, which is
more marketable than FED1,” he said.
“There’s still plenty of demand domestically and on the export front, and we’re seeing plenty of milling grade out there as well.”
Mr Shanley said the Wimmera had been the ‘surprise packet’, particularly following the weather events late in the season.
“A lot of the Wimmera escaped the really large downpours, and we are still seeing quality hold on a bit better in that region,” he said.
“There’s still a fair bit to come
Free guide supporting mental health
The Victorian Farmers Federation Making our Farms Safer Project is aiming to tackle the scourge of mental health in rural communities by launching the new ‘Harvesting Change’ handbook for farmers.
VFF vice-president and chair of the Making our Farmers Safer committee Danyel Cucinotta said the free handbook was available to all Victorian farmers and offered practical mental health tips, information and advice critical to saving lives.
“It’s a sobering reality that nearly half of Australian farmers say they have recently felt depressed, with almost two thirds of them experiencing anxiety,” she said.
“Almost half of Australian farmers have had thoughts of self-harm or suicide. That is absolutely devastating and this handbook is a great first step towards giving farming communities the support and resources they need.”
Ms Cucinotta said the much-needed handbook filled a hole within the industry.
“It has been written by farmers and industry
experts for farmers and our communities, while keeping front of mind the unique challenges that we face,” she said.
“It is available to all Victorian farmers and stands alone as the only fit-for-purpose mental health guidebook made specifically for farmers and rural Victorians.
“Mental health doesn’t just impact those suffering directly. It’s a huge issue for families and the community as a whole. This handbook is made for those people in mind and acts as a tool to begin those important conversations.”
The handbook has been created as part of the VFF Making Our Farms Safer project, a free farm safety education and support service for Victorian farmers, funded by Agriculture Victoria.
People can find the project on all social media platforms and download a free copy of the handbook at www.makingourfarmssafer.org.au.
• If you or anyone you know needs help, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.
Mixed views on new code
Nationals leader David Littleproud has hit out at the Federal Government for failing to support farmers by addressing supermarket prices.
In the final parliamentary sitting day of the year on November 28, the government passed a bundle of more than 30 bills including the Treasury Laws Amendment (Fairer for Families and Farmers and Other Measures) Bill 2024.
The new legislation will see the national Food and Grocery Code of Conduct made mandatory for supermarket chains, as well as introducing stiffer penalties for supermarkets that break the code.
Under the new bill, supermarkets found to be in violation of the code can be fined an amount up to the greater of $10 million; three times the value of the benefit gained from the contravening conduct; or 10 per cent of turnover in the preceding 12 months.
While the government hailed the new legislation as introducing ‘the highest corporate penalties under any industry code’, Mr Littleproud said it failed to go far enough.
“Labor has treated our families and farmers with disdain and contempt,” he said.
“Labor hasn’t given the critical issue of supermarket price gouging and its impact on families and farmers the respect it deserves.
“Labor is out of touch and has shoved the legislation in with a bunch of other issues and acted as if it is simply business as usual. It will not do one thing to fix supermarket prices.”
Mr Littleproud accused the government of failing to consult with farmers before introducing the legislation.
off, but the Wimmera, Mallee and Central Victoria are still running pretty strongly.
“It’s definitely picked up pace with a couple of hot days, and hopefully a few clear days ahead will see most growers get their crops off before Christmas.
“Everyone is pretty happy to see this decent weather so they can get a decent run at it.”
Mr Shanley said growers further south, in the Hamilton and Westmere areas, would likely finish harvest early January.
But National Farmers’ Federation president and Murra Warra farmer David Jochinke said he saw the bill as a step in the right direction.
“While we do not always agree on everything, it is important to acknowledge those areas where the government has made positive steps on behalf of farmers,” Mr Jochinke said.
“There’s still more work to be done to ensure the code better addresses power and negotiating imbalances that exist between growers and supply chain participants in the horticulture sector.
“We also want to see growers from the greenlife sector protected under the code. This sector is dominated by one retailer, Bunnings, who has a market share of around 70 per cent.”
ON TRACK: Warracknabeal farmer Richard Wilken, centre, with Anthony Wilken, left, and Hayden Crow, are on track to have harvest wrapped up before Christmas.
Research findings ‘encouraging’
BY COLIN MacGILLIVRAY
Grain growers are optimistic that findings from researchers at Horsham SmartFarm could yield a key to improving fallingnumber test results in wheat crops.
A falling-number test measures the level of sprout damage in grain crops, with a result rendered in seconds.
Agriculture Victoria crop-quality research leader Cass Walker said a falling-number result of more than 300 seconds generally indicated sound grain, while grains that recorded less than 300 seconds could be downgraded to feed quality.
Dr Walker led research into the effect of different storage methods on falling-number values in grain, and found encouraging results for weather-damaged wheat crops.
“We took part of the grain from replicated experiments where there had been weather damage or rainfall at harvest,” she said.
“Then we stored it at a range of temperatures and took samples over time and did falling number tests throughout the experiment.
“We found that temperatures above 25 degrees could increase falling number results by up to 50 seconds after about a four-to-six-month period.
“Avoiding the grain becoming mouldy is really the key. It’s all about low moisture.
“You really need to get the moisture down in the grain before you put it in the storage system, so you may need to dehydrate the grain or harvest it when the moisture is low in the field.
“Keep an eye on the moisture and make sure it’s at least below 12 per cent moisture, and low humidity in your storage is really important.”
While she recognised the results were encouraging, Dr Walker said more research was needed.
She said testing in a silo environment was yet to be completed and that the promising results achieved with wheat had not translated to barley.
“These are preliminary lab results
that we found that we felt were so important for growers, particularly at the current harvest. We have not assessed this in a silo system, yet,” she said.
“What we found was that anything that was below about 250 seconds did not move in falling number value with storage, so unfortunately if you have that lower value I think the damage in the grain is too much and you can’t recover that falling number value.
“I don’t know the reason the results do not work in barley either. It’s very curious.”
But while Dr Walker acknowledged more testing was required, industry body GrainGrowers expressed cau-
LEADERS: Cass Walker, left, and Pankaj Maharjan from Agriculture
Victoria Research Crop Quality team.
to be confirmed in on-farm storage conditions.
“The fact that the researchers temper expectations is understandable given the many variables that can occur in on-farm storage.”
Grains Research and Development Corporation, GRDC, grain storage extension team lead Chris Warrick said the results were encouraging but called for growers to exercise caution.
“We are sharing these early results to give growers the opportunity to decide if they want to try storing wheat that doesn’t quite make the 300 second falling number test and see if it improves with storage,” he said.
tious optimism. GrainGrowers chief executive Shona Gawel said with recent rain across Australia, the research results were encouraging and offered affected growers an opportunity to avoid downgrading their crops.
“If the right storage can help wheat maintain its quality, the returns of $50-150 a tonne would be welcomed by rain-affected growers,” she said.
“As with all work of this nature, growers should obtain advice and seek out the latest information to consider how it applies to their individual situation.
“While the findings are certainly positive, they are preliminary and yet
“We certainly don’t want to create an expectation that these results will be replicated in all conditions, there are still many variables and influences we need to understand through further research.”
Mr Warrick said growers should also prioritise safe grain-storage practices, including regular monitoring of grain temperature and moisture, and using a sieve and probe traps to detect insects.
“It would be counterproductive if we chase an increase in falling number at the expense of letting grain go mouldy or become damaged from insect pests such as weevils,” he said.
“We aim to cool grain immediately after harvest to maintain seed viability, preserve grain colour, prevent mould, and deter insects.”
VFF reminder: Farming is forever
BY LAUREN HENRY
The Victorian Farmers Federation, VFF, has welcomed the State Government recognising agribusiness as a priority sector to boost the state’s productivity, but says a clear strategy to protect important agricultural land is required.
In response to the Economic Growth Statement released last week, VFF president Emma Germano said a balanced approach to land use between competing priority sectors of the economy needed to be taken.
Ms Germano said the VFF had been consistent in calling on the government to implement a clear and robust strategy to identify and protect strategic agricultural land from inappropriate development.
“The acknowledgment that agribusiness is a priority for the state’s economic growth and competitiveness is very welcome and builds off the VFF’s conversations with government,” she said.
“Cutting red tape to drive productivity is a key focus for the VFF and we have already made it a priority for our policy work next year. It is positive to see the Victorian government has this shared commitment.
“While the statement recognises agribusiness as a priority, it overlooks the inherent conflict between agricultural land use and the demands of other priority sectors, such as critical minerals and renewable energy development.”
Ms Germano said the statement was ‘very heavy on seeing mining and renewable energy development’, on top of land Victorian farmers produced food for Australia and the world.
“Victoria produces 30 per cent of the nation’s food from just 1.5 per cent of Australia’s land mass,” she said.
“We are a huge economic contributor and can do more if we commit to protecting our most valuable agriculture farmland.
“Agricultural land is a finite resource, and the government must prioritise its long-term viability in any strategy aimed at growing the state’s economy.
“At the end of the day, solar panels and wind turbines have an end of life, and mines get filled in. Farming is forever.”
Statement
The State Government launched its new Economic Growth Statement last week, where Premier Jacinta Allan, Minister for Jobs and Industry Natalie Hutchins, and Minister for Planning Sonya Kilkenny visited a Dulux facto-
“However, the Economic Growth Statement is missing one key strategy that is required to protect and strengthen Victoria’s food and fibre production.
ry in Melbourne’s north to announce a 10-year plan to deliver 6000 hectares of more industrial land.
The Economic Growth Statement includes plans to establish a new investment coordinator-general next year in a bid to ensure agencies, regulators and statutory authorities meet all required approvals deadlines for major projects of state significance. It will also aim to reduce delays and enhance accountability across government departments and agencies.
As part of the statement, the government also announced plans to change the process for obtaining an Environ-
mental Effects Statement, EES, targeting an assessment review of no longer than 18 months.
Ms Kilkenny said the government planned to speed up the process through sharper assessment scopes, better use of environmental reports, more support for applicants, and speeding up the public engagement process by facilitating online engagement and more focused public inquiries and engagement phases.
“We’re making sure our processes are more efficient and giving business greater certainty, while maintaining our strong protections for the environ-
ment and managing project impacts,” she said.
As part of the statement, the government also released a Critical Minerals Roadmap document, which features a map showing three mineral sand mines in the Wimmera – Donald Mineral Sands near Minyip; Avonbank at Dooen; and WIM150, 20 kilometres south-east of Horsham.
The 36-page document also says the government will also convene an advisory group comprising industry, academics, and other stakeholders to advise on the establishment of a critical minerals downstream industry in regional Victoria.
Energy and Resources Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said the demand for materials used in renewable energy infrastructure was growing, with rare earth elements used in the construction of wind turbines, rechargeable batteries and electric vehicles a focus of the government as it strives towards netzero emissions by 2045.
“Victoria is home to the rare minerals that we need to make things like solar panels – which is why we’re backing this incredibly important sector,” she said.
To read the roadmap, visit https:// resources.vic.gov.au/geologyexploration/industry-investment/ key-resource-opportunities/VictorianCritical-Minerals-Roadmap.
VISIT: Premier Jacinta Allan, right, and Energy and Resources Minister Lily D’Ambrosio in the Wimmera last month. Picture: PAUL CARRACHER
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Too little, too late, too much
Firstit was too little, then it was too late, and finally too much.
That would be rain of course. While New South Wales and Queensland are rejoicing at bumper crops, Victoria and the Riverina grain growers are counting their losses.
Thankfully the golden oil, canola, was largely harvested before the heavy rain. The big losses have been wheat crops.
Quambatook grain grower Brett Hosking – yes, that guy who is standing for presidency of the VFF to be announced December 20 – had harvested less than a third of his wheat crop before the skies opened.
The dreaded falling numbers told the story. Sixty-seven seconds. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, it’s the moisture test for grain done at receiver sites and anything below 200 is downgraded to feed grain.
In the past month, most of Victoria and the Riverina have had more than 50 millimetres of rain, with more northern areas up to 200 millimetres, although much of the Wimmera had less than 25.
Not only was grain downgraded, but farmers couldn’t get their harvesters back onto crops due to bogging.
Agronomist and grain grower Scott Berger of Barham told Country Today one Sunday towards the end of November, it rained solidly for more than 24 hours.
“Sometimes you get this sort of rain, and if the sun comes out and you get some windy sort of weather, things can dry out pretty quick and it’s
Country Today
with Libby Price
not so much of problem … but, a big rain like that and it starts getting sticky, you could get it shot and sprung and then you’ve got the falling numbers test,” he said.
Research at Horsham SmartFarm funded by Grains Research and Development Corporation shows wheat can be dried and stored and the falling numbers improve to be above 300, that is, no longer feed quality.
For some growers this research presents an opportunity to avoid a significant price discount on weather damaged grain.
Country Today spoke to Cass Walker, Ag Victoria’s crop quality research leader at the SmartFarm. The key is that the falling numbers need to be above 250 seconds.
“Temperatures above 25 degrees could increase falling number results by up to 50 seconds after about a four to six month period,” she said. The trial was done in a laboratory, so how it would work in a grain silo is the next step. Plus there’s the problem of getting rid of the moisture.
“You have to get the moisture down in the grain before you put it in the storage system, so you might have to dehydrate the grain or harvest when moisture levels are low, keeping it at least below 12 percent moisture,” Ms Walker said. So not a silver bullet, but watch this space. For more information visit groundcover.grdc.com.au.
Green drought effects lingering
Farmers in Victoria’s southwest and southern Wimmera are still feeling the effects of their green drought, despite November being their wettest month of the year.
Pigeon Ponds lamb producer Tim Leeming told ACE Radio’s Country Today program that it was too late for many farmers, who had ‘hayed off from the spring’ but there were still some pockets of the region that were quite green.
“We’re still half green, our perennial grasses are going to get a really good benefit from this rain, but our clover and annual grasses were already hayed off,” he said.
“A number of producers would have some summer crops in, like we have, so we’ve got some summer feeding such as plantain and rapeseed and things like that back at the end of August.
“We’ve already been grazing those, and obviously this November rain is super beneficial for them.
“We’ll grow a really good amount of seed from this rain and then later top seeds such as planto, and again rye grasses, polaris and things like that –that are perennial plants – will get a real kick from this added moisture.”
Mr Leeming said after July lambing was a ‘breeze’ due to a mild winter.
“We had very little very high wind
chill weather, so the conditions were quite mild and our pasture growth was really good because we weren’t hydrated,” he said.
“We didn’t have any saturated soils obviously, we’ve only really had half our normal average rainfall for the year, so it was mild and from July through August and September, the lambing conditions were terrific. So that was a real blessing.
“It was just that April, May, June, was super, super tough for a lot of producers landing in there at that time.”
Mr Leeming said the November rain had been beneficial for soil profile.
“It’s a double edged sword. Often there’ll be some frustrated croppers who are trying to get a start to harvest and that really can be difficult for them and especially with humidity and things like that, getting back onto those paddocks, so that’ll be frustrating for them,” he said.
“But from a grazing point of view, there’s also a detriment of getting a late rain or a summer rain because it can really reduce the digestibility of all that dry feed.
“So normally when dry feed sort of hays off, it still maintains reasonable quality leading up until January generally, but when you get a big significant rainfall event, it actually reduces the digestibility significantly.
“So that’s the downside, but I’m
DOUBLE EDGED SWORD: Pigeon Ponds lamb producer Tim Leeming said November rain had been beneficial for soil profile.
pretty sure most farmers will be pretty happy.”
Mr Leeming said farmers had begun sowing crops such as sorghum to put in summer feed.
Drought help offered Farmers in drought-affected areas can register for a free consultation with a farm advisor, delivered as part of the State Government’s $13.53-million drought support package.
The one-on-one consultations are in addition to existing supports, including technical resources, workshops and field days available to farmers in the south-west.
Agriculture Victoria director Kate Linden said the program offered eligible farmers the opportunity to sit down with a consultant to discuss the best way forward for their business in the current season.
“Decision-making in times of stress,
such as when you’re dealing with the daily challenge of drought, can be overwhelming,” she said.
“Taking time to step back, take stock and talk through what you need to do for the next few months can help relieve some of the pressures and feelings of being overwhelmed.
“This might involve developing feed and water budgets to assess questions as: ‘How much feed and water have I got left?’, ‘How much is my stock going to need?’ and ‘What am I going to do if the two don’t line up?’
“Putting plans in place and acting early can make a big difference to your mental load and potentially financial bottom line – buying more hay now straight out of the paddock, moving stock off the property to agistment or selling more stock might be required.”
Interested farmers can register their expression of interest with Agriculture Victoria, and can nominate an advisor they would prefer to work with either on farm or off.
A follow-up one-hour phone consultation, after the initial face-to-face planning session, is also available.
For more information or to register an expression of interest in the program people can visit agriculture.vic. gov.au/dryseasons, phone 136 186 or email drought.support@agriculture. vic.gov.au.
all POLY REPAIRS & WELDING
Superannuation tax plan shelved
BY COLIN MacGILLIVRAY
The National Farmers’ Federation, NFF, and federal opposition are celebrating after the Federal Government shelved a plan to increase tax on superannuation balances above $3-million.
The government deferred legislation to increase the tax on superannuation assets above $3-million from 15 per cent to 30 per cent, with the bill likely lacking the support required to pass parliament.
The bill remains in the senate, but political pundits believe the government is unlikely to try to pass it before next year’s federal election.
NFF president and Murra Warra farmer David Jochinke said the federation had repeatedly raised concerns about the potential impact of the tax on farming families in Australia.
“Thousands of farms across Australia are held in self-managed superannuation funds so they can be leased to the next generation, providing both retirement income and an opportunity for the next generation to take over the business,” he said.
Mr Jochinke said University of Adelaide modelling showed more than 3500 self-managed super funds, SMSFs, holding farming land would be impacted as soon as the tax was implemented, with more affected thereafter.
He said small-business owners would also be impacted, with more than 13,000 SMSFs holding business real property such as small business assets.
“The farm sector is particularly worried the taxation of unrealised gains may force primary producers to sell their farm just to pay off their new tax bill,” Mr Jochinke said.
“This tax spells disaster for the hardworking Aussie families who set up these funds in good faith, to give the next generation a leg up.
“We know farming and small businesses are the backbone of the Australian economy.”
Member for Mallee Anne Webster said the plan would have hurt farming communities, with many families having set up SMSFs as their future retirement and savings.
“Labor refused to rule out forcing farmers to pay tax on the unrealised capital gains of a farm in a SMSF, even if farmers have a bad season with no income,” she said.
“Time and again Labor acts like feudal lords, treating farmers like peasants who don’t really own their assets.
“They entice corporate raiders to take slices of the farm for transmission lines, energy or mining projects, or they eye off the farm nest egg farmers have set aside for tough seasons.”
Haystack fires prompt warning
Two separate haystack fires in different parts of the state have destroyed about 1700 bales, prompting Country Fire Authority to remind producers to monitor the conditions of stored hay.
A fire in Coonooer West, near Donald, claimed 1200 bales, a hayshed and several pieces of machinery, while a fire in Naring, near Numurkah, saw another 500 bales destroyed.
Haystack fires are often caused by spontaneous combustion when hay is baled with excess moisture, and combined with the compact nature of hay bales, can create internal heat, leading to ignition.
CFA District 16 assistant chief fire officer Stephen Alcock said the incidents served as a reminder for farmers to closely monitor their haystacks.
STILL IN FRONT!
“These fires demonstrate the devastating impact haystack fires can have,” he said.
“Once a fire starts, it spreads rapidly through the bales, making it extremely challenging to contain. High-moisture levels in hay, often from baling too early in the day when it’s dewy or after rain, are a major contributor to spontaneous combustion.”
Mr Alcock also stressed the dangers of storing machinery with hay bales.
“Storing machinery with hay bales is a recipe for disaster. If a fire starts in the haystack, it can quickly spread to nearby machinery, which can halt important farming operations until new equipment arrives,” he said.
“The safest option is to store hay in a separate area away from equipment and other buildings.”
Mr Alcock said haystack fires could spread to neighbouring farms and require extensive emergency services resources.
“Regular monitoring and proper storage can turn what might have been a major issue into something manageable,” he said.
To prevent combustion, producers should ensure hay is well-cured before baling; know the history of purchased hay; keep haystacks to a limited size and separate haystacks; monitor moisture and temperature; monitor for unusual odours; store hay in separate stacks or sheds away from equipment and buildings; cover stacks to keep dry; and don’t stack hay to the top of a shed.
For more information, people can visit CFA’s website for advice on haystack safety.
Safeguard your agribusiness
BY HUGO LE CLERC, ASSOCIATE, HARWOOD ANDREWS
Awell drafted set of terms and conditions is an important way to protect your agribusiness, manage risk, clarify expectations upfront, avoid misunderstandings and build trust with customers.
Terms and conditions define the rights and obligations of each party to a transaction and are often the starting point if something goes wrong. They can capture the nature of goods or services supplied, payment and delivery terms, dispute resolution mechanisms and warranties.
Generic off-the-shelf templates usually fail to address the risk, market and operational considerations for most businesses.
Terms and conditions should be tailored to the business, with clear and precise language to avoid ambiguity. For example, if your agribusiness is supplying goods, it is critical to clarify when title and risk in the goods pass from your business to a buyer.
Appropriate retention of title and security clauses are particularly important.
Without clear agreed terms upfront, misunderstandings can arise, leading to disputes regarding what terms were implied based on the parties’ conduct and correspondence.
Changes to Australia’s unfair contract terms regime under the Australian Consumer Law in November 2023 make it unlawful to rely
on unfair contract terms in standard form ‘take it or leave it’ contracts with individuals or small business.
If you transact with individuals or small businesses – less than 100 employees or $10-million turnover – your business is likely caught by the unfair contract terms, UCT, regime; a significant expansion of the class of small business that can rely on the UCT protections.
Terms may be unfair if they cause a significant imbalance in the rights or obligations of the parties, aren’t reasonably necessary to protect the legitimate interests of your business and would cause financial or other harm to the other party if enforced. Examples include terms that allow your business, but not the customer, to end the contract or unilaterally vary the contract terms.
Outdated terms and conditions that do not account for the UCT regime may expose your business to unnecessary risk.
For businesses that rely on non-negotiable standard form contracts, for example purchase order terms, on a regular basis, engaging a legal professional to review your terms and conditions is essential.
By investing in a tailored set of terms and conditions, you can safeguard your agribusiness, mitigate risk, ensure compliance with the legislative requirements and provide certainty for your customers.
ON THE JOB: Longerenong College students are learning in the field this harvest, gaining hands-on industry experience in blended apprenticeship and traineeship programs. Students are doing harvest assessments, including moisture testing and machinery checks, while gaining their Certificates III and IV in Agriculture. The college offers training blocks to students who are working or studying at school. Pictured are, clockwise from left, Mackinnon Rogers, left, 2024 Advanced Diploma of Agribusiness Management, and Ashby Rogers, 2024 Certificate III in Agriculture, Apprentice, at Wood Wood; Victoria; Tara Dunsmuir, 2024 Certificate III in Agriculture Apprentice, at Kalkee; Josh Tyas, 2024 Certificate III in Agriculture Apprentice, at Kaniva.
Potential wet, hot summer awaits
BY COLIN MacGILLIVRAY
Ahotter and wetter-than-average summer could be in the offing for Victoria, with both potential opportunities and drawbacks for the agriculture sector in 2025.
Agriculture Victoria seasonal-risk agronomist Dale Grey said recent wet weather had come too late for many growers across the Wimmera and Mallee, but that it could bode well for the following season.
“Ironically we’ve been looking for that for much of the season, and it’s come right at the end of the season, which for the croppers is no joy whatsoever,” he said.
“There has been plenty of rainfall in a lot of areas, both in the Mallee and in the north-east, where they had over 100 millimetres in a 15-day period, which has made things very wet.
“Unsurprisingly soil-moisture probes in those areas have gone up.
“A lot of those Mallee areas have now risen up to 75 or 80 per cent soil moisture, which is no joy for the current time, but if even half of that moisture can be saved for next year, it’s augering well in terms of stored soil moisture.
“Moisture probes in the south-west are essentially unchanged or are still going down. There hasn’t been as much rainfall south of the divide, but
what has fallen has been useful. In Hamilton I’m hearing a lot of reports that there’s a lot of hay on the ground – more than normal – so the fact that there has been enough pasture to cut for hay is a good sign.”
Mr Grey said waters north of Australia, including the Indian Ocean, Timor Sea and Coral Sea, were hotter than average, with the Timor Sea experiencing record-high temperatures.
“There’s no shortage of moisture to the north of us and if we can manage to get some sort of triggering mechanism, such as low pressures or the fronts coming through … now there’s a process for those wetter predictions potentially coming through,” he said.
“What’s interesting is that while we have no La Nina and we have no negative Indian Ocean dipole in terms of the ocean, the atmosphere above those seas to the north-east and north-west of us are behaving La Nina-like.”
In addition to the potential for a wet summer, Mr Grey said it was likely to be hot.
“We had an incredibly warm November. It was three to four degrees warmer in the eastern half of the state and two to three degrees warmer in the western half of the state every day of November,” he said.
“Whether the summer will be extremely hot is debatable at the moment. It’s certainly predicted to be
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“A lot of those Mallee areas have now risen up to 75 or 80 per cent soil moisture, which is no joy for the current time, but if even half of that moisture can be saved for next year, it’s augering well in terms of stored soil moisture”
– Dale Grey, left
warmer, and I think that’s extremely likely with the fact that the oceans around Australia are well and truly warmer than normal and helping to pre-heat the air mass before it gets here by one or two degrees.”
Rural Bank senior manager industry affairs Neil Burgess said high rainfall in 2025, if it eventuated, was likely a positive sign for Australian growers.
“We’ve got two key drivers for Australian agriculture – consumer demand and the essential rainfall. Both are looking positive as we start moving into the first half of 2025,” he said.
But Mr Burgess said a volatile geopolitical environment could present unforeseen hazards to exporters.
“We have seen China lifting tariffs on wine and barley. Generally on the whole, our trading relationships with China are on the improve,” he said.
“We’ve still got the issues with Ukraine and Russia, there are difficult conditions in the Middle East, and then of course we’ve got the change of administration in the US with the incoming president Donald Trump.
“There is a lot of rhetoric, but it’s always a case of wait and see, and I guess we just have to expect the unexpected.
“Once Trump does come into office we will deal with whatever is placed in front of us, but it’s fair to say Australia has a good trading relationship with the US, particularly our beef exports, so hopefully that will be taken into consideration.”
Mr Burgess said while the croppers had endured a difficult season in 2024, the overall outlook was far from disastrous.
“There have been those drier conditions and the frost events,” he said.
“But in saying that, while Victoria has gone through a bit of a tough time, the numbers overall are still looking like Victoria is going to have some surplus crops to fulfil export obligations.
“There is a lift in beef production and we are seeing strong export demands, particularly from the US. This is giving more of a positive outlook.”
