LIFE LINE
June 2012
December 2010 The Newsletter of the International Maritime Rescue Federation (IMRF) December 2010 News… Experience… Ideas… Information… Development… December 2010 In this issue:
December 2010
the IMRF’s mass rescue conference, ‘Gothenburg II’, and other mass rescue matters IMRF initiatives on crew exchange, education, and our ‘Members Assisting Members’ scheme communication developments, and cold water survival December news from Estonia, Liberia and Brazil 2010 and more!
December 2010 December 2010 December 2010
The Titanic Effect
December 2010
In 1974 the ecologist Kenneth Watt published a book he called The Titanic Effect: Planning for the Unthinkable. December Watt was not writing about maritime disasters in particular, but part of his more general thesis was that people only 2010 believe in, and therefore can only act upon, the possibility of future disaster to the extent that they think they can handle it. If we think it’s too difficult, we don’t plan.
December Gerald Weinberg labelled a related idea the ‘Titanic Effect’ in The Secrets of Consulting (1986). Believing that disaster itself is impossible may actually result in unthinkable disaster. If your model says disaster 2010 is extremely unlikely, the weakest link may actually be your model... ‘In general,’ wrote Watt, ‘It is worth taking action in advance to deal with disasters. The reason is that December the costs of doing so are typically inconsequential as measured against the losses that would ensue if no such action were 2010 taken’ - and he drew the following generalisation from his studies:
‘The magnitude of disasters decreases to the extent that people believe that they are possible, and plan December to prevent them, or to minimise their effects.’ So: let’s get back to the sea; and let’s plan for ‘unthinkable’ disasters...
2010 December 2010
IMRF mass rescue December 2010 operations conference December 2010 Special Edition December page 1 2010 December