“DO WE MAKE TECHNOLOGY OR DOES TECHNOLOGY MAKE US? EXPLORING TECHNOLOGICAL DETERMINISM THROUGH RAY KURZWEIL” By Kevin Jae
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NE narrative of human history is the story of technological development, of how human beings, as a species, have conquered and tamed the natural environment through increasingly sophisticated technology. In this narrative, our current moment can be seen as a unique turning point. For example, note the language employed by Klaus Schwab, the Founder of the World Economic Forum, and his framing of our current epoque, the Fourth Industrial Revolution: “We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another… The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential [emphasis added] rather than a linear pace.” Are we human being stuck deep in the rapid currents of technological development, doomed to be swept away uncontrollably? What is the nature of technological development? This article will examine this question through the theory of technological development in the work of futurist Ray Kurzweil in The Age of Spiritual Machines. A critical examination of Kurzweil’s model of technological development will come with insights with which to reflect on the framing of technological development in our time. Taking from these insights, I will suggest another way of viewing technological development. The way in which we conceive
of technological development is of utmost importance; this will be made apparent by way of a case study on the future of work. Ray Kurzweil’s The Age of Spiritual Machines is a work with recognition and influence in the futures studies community—it was listed as one of the Most Significant Futures Works by the Association of Professional Futurists in 2008. In the book, Kurzweil advances a deterministic theory of technological development that inevitably leads to a certain conclusion. A brief elaboration of the theory follows; the reader may skip the next paragraph to skip ahead to the implications of Kurzweil’s theory. In The Age of Spiritual Machines, Kurzweil’s theory of technological development is centered on the Law of Time and Chaos. The Law is built on his observation of exponential trends, some of which include the exponentially slowing pace of the universe, the exponentially quickening development of computing, and the quickening pace of evolution for lifeforms on Earth. The speed of change is described by the interval between salient events, or “events that change the nature of the process, or significantly affect the future of the process” (p. 29). So, the exponentially slowing pace of the universe does not refer to the speed at which it expands. Instead, it refers to the fact that, within the first 20 minutes, the universe passed through numerous salient events (the Planck epoch, the Quark epoch, the Hadron epoch, the Lepton epoch, and the Photon epoch), whereas now, hundreds of
NOTES:
PastWinners 4 Wikipedia (n.d.). Timeline of the early universe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_ the_early_universe 5 Wikimedia Commons. (n.d.). File:PPTCountdowntoSingularityLog.jpg. https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:PPTCountdowntoSingularityLog.jpg 6 Manyika, J., & Sneader, K. (2018). AI, automation, and the future of work: Ten things to solve for. McKinsey Global Institute. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/futureof-work/ai-automation-and-the-future-of-work-ten-things-to-solve-for#
Schwab, K. (2016 Jan 14). The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourthindustrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/ 2 Kurzweil, R. (1999). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. Penguin. 3 Association of Professional Futurists. (n.d.). Past Winners. https://www.apf.org/page/ 1
HUMAN FUTURES
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