WHY LONG-TERM FORECA FAIL - AND WHY PREDICTI INTELLIGENCE AND BIG DA
O
NE of the first things I do in the morning is to check the weather on my mobile to decide how to get dressed and what mode
of transport (car or scooter) I will use. Then, I consult the same app before packing my suitcase or checking the wind on the beach in Epanomi where winter swimmers gather. Fortunately, in most short-term forecasts, the result is correct, allowing me to plan my life safely. Wouldn’t it be possible, then, to use sophisticated algorithms to predict other future events besides the weather, as Asimov describes in the Foundation series? Why not entrust sophisticated predictions of the future to algorithms that, in combination with machine learning systems, artificial intelligence and supercomputers, will chart the possible trajectories of our lives or accurately predict the next pandemic? Let’s f irst look at what is happening with weather forecasting. Predicting the future of weather with mathematical models Indeed, even with the limitations, we can predict the weather for the coming days with a fairly high degree of certainty. Weather prediction is a scientific achievement of the last century that originated and is still largely based on the work of the Norwegian physicists Vilhem Bjerkens (1862-1951) and Jacob (Jack) Bjerknes (1897-1975). Bjerknes, father and son, devoted their lives to observing weather phenomena and constructing the mathematical models that are still used today. Vilhem was the first to construct the theorem describing the motion of air masses, while the models were greatly improved by Jack’s groundbased observations.
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HUMAN FUTURES
By Warren Graham
