The big picture_follow the money

Follow the Money Group Jingyuan Hu Kari Havnevik Guðrún Lilja Jónsdóttir Francisco Rodríguez Saa

2003

file:///Users/amy/Dropbox/jj/commodity/stream.html 2004 2005 2006 2007

Gordon Brown becomes prime minister of Great Britain

Winter Olympics in Turin, Italy

North Korea claims nuclear test

FIFA World cup

Hurricane Katrina in Amercica

9.0 Asia quake leaves 212,000 dead European Union expanded

Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece

Conflict in Sudan escalates into war

Start of the colour revolutions

U.S. launches war against Iraq

Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, U.S.

Switzerland joins United Nations

002

FIFA World cup

2008 2009 2010

Winter Olympics in Vancouver, Canada

FIFA World cup

2002

The shutdown of the UK tabloid News of the World

GM enters bankruptcy protection

Barack Obama wins election IMF: Global economy worst in 60 years

Lehman Bros files for bankcruptcy

Global economic crisis

Summer Olympics in Beijing, China

Quake death toll 22,000 in China

2003

2011

Iraq War is declared formally over

price

World Economy

2004

England riots

nickel lead iron gold copper aluminium zinc uranium tin silver

Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan

Streamgraph 2/1/12 AM nickel lead iron gold copper aluminium zinc uranium tin 8:18 silver

fuel price

industrial inputs price commodity price Page 1 of 1

Energy and Coal

Real cost of coal

Coal burning has existed for centuries, and its use as a fuel has been recorded since the 1100s. It powered the Industrial Revolution, changing the course of first Britain, and then the world, in the process. In the US, the first coal-fired power plant – Pearl Street Station – opened on the shores of the lower East River in New York City in September 1882.1 Shortly thereafter, coal became the staple diet for power plants across the world.

in Process

thermal/ steam

electricity generation

metallurgical, coke

Value

steel production

Cost thermal/ steam

cement manufacture

mining

preparation

transport

type

use

in US The Annual Economically-Quanti!able Costs of Coal

Electricity

Emission

Land Disturbance: Carbon & Methane

$ 5.5B [Hg] Mercury Impacts

40%

However, coal combustion caused

In 2009, of the world electricity is generated by coal

2%

Chemical and petrochemical

2%

Iron and steel

7%

Cementation metallic mineral product

4%

Energy sector

3%

Residential

74%

Electricity transformation

3%

Other

80%

GHG emission in electricity generattion

$ 187.5B

$ 1.8B

$ 2.2B

$ 74.6B

Fatalities Among the Public Due to Coal Transporation by Rail

Public Healthy Burden in Appalachian Communities

Emissions of Air Pollutants from Combustion

$ 8.8B

$ 3.2B

Abandoned Mine Lands

Subsidies

$ 61.7B Climate Contribution from Combustion

$ 345B and More

Coal is pretty cheap on the electronic bill, however, in reality we are paying a much higher cost in the long run, if we look at the big picture. The whole process and its impact on human being and environment can somehow tell the true cost of coal.

30 coal miners dead in America in 2008, 3200 in China. The death rate of coal mining is much higher than imagined.

As in the graph, American actually spent a lot on different issues and problems that brought by coal mining. Though the number is roughly calculated, it reveals the truth behind the “cheap coal”. The high death rate of coal mining is also a serious problem.

Nuclear(4)

Oil(36)

Coal (161/TWh)

population coal consumption

1950

1965

1980

1995

2010

World trade of coal

2010

2000 Export 206114

Import

Export

Japan Korea, South 67944 Taiwan 50410 Germany 39386 Russia 28323 United Kingdom 26377 Canada 26303 India 25736 Netherlands 25461 Spain 24014

Australia Indonesia Russia United States South Africa Colombia Canada Kazakhstan Vietnam China

168586

World share of coal consumption

Australia 77450 China 77061 South Africa 63332 Indonesia United States 59634 43981 Russia Colombia 39522 Kazakhstan 37990 Canada 35695 Poland 29474

Import

206702 195062

122095 83178 76683 76380 36920 36305 24676 22658

125807 101563 71130 55154 30030 29358 23734 22831

million tons

China is developing fast as well as its domestic demand. Its energy supply replies on coal resource. It has transformed from a big coal exporter to a giant importer through the last decade.

Export vs. Import

Transforming China

Japan China Korea, South India Taiwan Germany Turkey United Kingdom Italy Netherlands

328131 316151

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Resource 1. http://www.skepticalscience.com/true-cost-of-coal-power.html 2. http://www.coalcrusher.org/coal/coal-application.html 3. http://www.markenglehartevans.com/2011/05/state-grid-vs-beijing-a-familiar-game-ofchicken/ 4. http://seekingalpha.com/article/238639-the-coal-situation-in-asia 5. http://www.worldcoal.org/ 6. http://www.c2es.org/technology/overview/electricity 7. http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy-source.html 8. http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Coal_mining_disasters 9. http://www.mapreport.com/subtopics/i.html 10. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/21st_century#Economics_.26_Industry 11. Ming Coal, Mounting Costs: The life cycle consequences of coal (http://chge.med.harvard.edu/programs/ccf/documents/MiningCoalMountingCosts.pdf ) 12. The True Cost of Coal (http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/ planet-2/report/2008/11/cost-of-coal.pdf ) 13. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 (http://www.bp.com/assets/bp_internet/ globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2011/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2011.pdf ) 14. http://www.indexmundi.com/ 15. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal 16. http://www.visualizing.org/ 17. http://www.iea.org/index.asp

2010

2001 Sweden

Iron Ore - Production Russia

Russia

Canada

Canada Ukraine

Ukraine

Kazakshtan

USA

USA China

China

Iran

India

Mexico

Mauritania

India

Mauritania

Venezuela

Brazil

Brazil

Australia

Australia

South Africa

South Africa

Mauritania Venezuela Mexico Kazakhstan Iran Canada Other countries United States South Africa Ukraine Russia India Brazil Australia China

Mauritania Kazakhstan Sweden South Africa Canada Ukraine United States India Other Countries Russia Australia Brazil China 0

50

100

150

200

0

250

200

400

600

800

Annual Report 2010 S&B Industrial Minerals S.A.

Assemblage

Iron Ore 3rd. Shipping

2nd. Shipping

1st. Shipping

4th. Shipping

Foundry Refractory Bricks & Monolithics Pelletizing machine

Pig Iron ingot

Automotive Industry

Cast Iron Auto Part

Iron Ore Pellets

Ship Building

Blast Furnace

Resource: nationmaster.com

1200

Cast Iron Sub Part or Sub- component

From Coal Metallurgical Coke is used as fuel

Iron ore

1000

Pig Iron

Formed Steel Continuous Casting

Other ingredients Cast Iron Scrap +

Reinforced Concrete

2010 Norway

2010

Sweden

Iron Ore - Market

Finland

Canada N Ukraine

A

Czech R

P Slovakia Romania

US

Al

Turkey

China

Bahrain China

India

M

Oman Phillipines

Ve

Pe

Malasya

Brazil

Br

Australia Ch

Ar

South Africa

New Z.

Exports Iron Ore - Supplying Countries from the ore (before sub-parts or sub-components are made)

Imports Iron Ore - Demanding Countries (Consumers) Importers

Albania New Zeland Norway Mexico Philiphines Venezuela Peru Chile Kazakhstan Bahrain United States Ukraine South A rca Sweden Canada India Australia Brazil 0

Iron ore is the source of primary iron for the world's iron and steel industries. It is therefore essential for the production of steel, which in turn is essential to maintain a strong industrial base.

Almost all (98%) iron ore is used in steelmaking.

Iron ore is mined in about 50 countries. The seven largest of these producing countries account for about three-quarters of total world production.

Australia and Brazil together dominate the world's iron ore exports, each having about one-third of total exports.

Iron Ore Price

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

In 2009, China imported almost two-thirds of the world’s total iron ore exports and produced about 60% of the world’s pig iron. Since international iron ore trade and production of iron ore and pig iron are key indicators of iron ore consumption, this demonstrates that iron ore consumption in China is the primary factor upon which the expansion of the international iron ore industry depends.

200 180 160 140 120 100 Series1

60 40 20

Dec 2001 jun.02 Dec 2002 jun.03 Dec 2003 jun.04 Dec 2004 jun.05 Dec 2005 jun.06 Dec 2006 jun.07 Dec 2007 jun.08 Dec 2008 jun.09 Dec 2009 jun.10 Dec 2010 jun.11 Dec 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Over the last 40 years, iron ore prices have been decided in closed-door negotiations between the small handful of miners and steelmakers which dominate both spot and contract markets. Traditionally, the first deal reached between these two groups sets a benchmark to be followed by the rest of the industry

US Geological Survey 2011 Annual Report Iron Ore Worldwide

80

Malaysia Finland Spain Slovakia Oman Turkey Argen na Romania Netherlands Canada Poland Austria Czech Republic Belgium United States Italy France Germany Japan China

This benchmark system has however in recent years begun to break down, with participants along both demand and supply chains calling for a shift to short term pricing. Given that most other commodities already have a mature market-based pricing system, it is natural for iron ore to follow suit.

Although exchange-cleared iron ore swap contracts have developed over the past few years, to-date no exchange has established a proper futures market for the largely seaborne $88 billion a year iron ore trade.[6]

40

To answer increasing market demands for more transparent pricing, a number of financial exchanges and/or clearing houses around the world have offered iron ore swaps clearing.

The CME group, SGX (Singapore Exchange), London Clearing House (LCH.Clearnet), NOS Group and ICEX (Indian Commodities Exchange) all offer cleared swaps based on The Steel Index's (TSI) iron ore transaction data.

The CME also offers a Platts based swap, in addition to their TSI swap clearing.

The ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) offers a Platts based swap clearing service also.

The swaps market has grown quickly, with liquidity clustering around TSI's pricing.

By April 2011, over US$5.5 billion dollars worth of iron ore swaps have been cleared basis TSI prices.

Resource: US Geogolical Survey >usgs.gov Annual Report 2010 of S&B Industrial Minerals

2006 Northwest Territories British Columbia Ontario Michigan Nevada Saskatchewan Arizona

Bolivia Dominican Republic Venezuela Argentina Brazil Peru Chile Mexico

North America

South America

5 - 14 %

NW. Territ

13% of Net R. 2% of Net P.

Bri. Colum.

10 %

Ont.

2-7% 2-5% 5 % of Net P. 2%

Europe 5%

India Mongolia China Myanmar Papua New Guinea Philippines Indonesia

Ghana Mozambique Botswana Namibia South Africa Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe

Sweden Greenland

1-6%

Mining Royalties & Mining Taxation

Africa

Bo

Ve

0-3%

Ar

0,2 - 3 % Br NV

0-3%

Saskatch.

India

2.5-7.5%

Mon

1- 4 %

Ch

Variable SA - V Ta 0-5%

1-7.5%

Mya

2%

Za

2%

N. Gui, Phi

0%

Zi

3-12 %

MI Pe Ch, M AR

Australia 0.4-20 %

GM

Dom. R.

3-4%

Northern Territories New South Wales Western Australia Queensland

Asian & Pacific Countries 3-10 %

B

5-10 %

N

18 %

4 - 7 % N. S. Wales 2.5-7.5% W. Aus. 2.7 %

0% Sw, Gr

Unit Based Indo.

NW. Territ.

Bri. Colum.

Saskatch.

Ont. Mon

MI NV

Ch

AR

India

Dom. R.

M

Mya Phi

Ve

G N. Gui Ta

Pe

Br

Za

Bo N

Indo

M Zi

B W. Aus.

Ch

Ar

SA - V

“Many nations impose royalty tax, but some nations -as diverse as Chile, Greenland, Mexico, Sweden, and Zimbabwe- do not. In most nations that impose royalty tax, policy nakers are interested in determining whether the level of royalty and its computational method are competitive and efficient.�

Mining Royalties A Global Study of Their Impact on Investors, Government, and Civil Society.

Resource: Mining Royalties_A Global Study of Their Impact on Investors, Government, and Civil Society

North.

Territ.

North.

Territ.

Queensl.

Queensland

EU 27 China Japan South Korea India Russia Ukraine USA Canada Brazil

Exp

Import

Import and Export of Steel between 1999-2006 shown in %

2008

2008

Utilization Capacity 1998

2002

2006

2008

82 % 62 % 55 %

55 %

25%

South America Latin America

EU 15

Asia

(not Asia)

China

20 %

World

In modern economies production and capasity is very stable as shown in the graphs. The economy stays stable because it is well developed and the demand of steel is stable because the steel in not used for large size infrastructure. In China on the other hand the production and capacity are increasing because they are now going through a liberalization and industrialization.

The same trend is expected to be seen in India and Brazil in a 10 year period.

The white curve shows how well the capacity is exploited. Low utilization means that it is to large capacity according to the production. This is related to the consolidations around the world. Consolidation

of steel companies is very common in most parts of the world. In modern economies it is a couple of large companies ruling most of the production and that gives a high utilization rate. In developing economies there are many small firms which gives a fragmented marked, and when this market is put out on the world market (for instant China) there is an enormous overcapacity and the country will go through a consolidation face. China is in the middle of this face now, which forces them to shut down all the production on the country side and move it down to the coast were the logistic costs are lower and it is richer access to raw material.

Utilization in steel production

Degree of consolidation of steel between the world regions

Capacity and production are displayed in million tonnnes. Utilization is calculated as percentage of production to capacity. Thus the the two x axes are showing production and capacity on the left side and procentage on the right which applies to utilization.

Production

The largest EU steel production contries 2007

5,1%

3,6 %3,5 % 3,4 %

5,1 %

Poland

23,3 %

6,9 %

9,1%

Chech Republic

Romania

The reason for the great decline of the new member states in EU was because of old and poor technology which was still the fact after the Sovjet time. When these counties left the Sovjet regime they went through a transition in economy. They went from planned economy to market based economy, which resulted in overcapasity. In that period of time they produced poor steel with low quality which is not the case today. Now the focus is based on high quality steel.

1989

2000

15,4% 9,2% -30,5 %

-59,7%

-66,7%

Top World Exporters, million of Rolled Steel, tonns

The change in the steel production in the New member States of EU from 1989-2000 Production in New EU member states Particularly the large steel producing regions in the New Member States, Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania have experienced massive restructuring and reorganization since the collapse of the planned economies. From 1989 to 2000 total steel production decreased by between 30-66 % in these major steel producing countries. Outdated capacities were dismantled and former volume output has increasingly been shifted towards quality-output. From 2002-2007, total steel production in the new EU Member States has stabilized.

Germany

2009 2008 2007

South Korea

2009 2008 2007

Ukraine

2009 2008 2007

Russia

2009 2008 2007

Japan

2009 2008 2007

The largest EU steel producing countries are Germany, Italy, France, Spain, the UK, Belgium, Poland, Austria, Nederland and the Czech Republic. These relative positions have been steady for years. All together, the output level among New Member States are modest compare to the largest producing steel companies the EU 15 and only two New Member States are in the top 10.

al 55 .8

l not Stee

& Co Coke

Iron Ore & Pellet 136.2

.8 ng 8

Limestone 13.1

cli Recy

Lime 8.1

l for Stee rted Expo

Steel Collected for Recycling 91.7 Recovered Steel from Recycling 94.5

c Colle .8 ted 5

Im d rte

po g Pi n

Iro 5 3.

Consumtion of Pig Iron and Recovered Steel 196.8

l in M f Stee

o Import

ctured

anufa

BO Exported Pig Iron 0.6

BF Slag 24.1

rt eel Impo Crude St

Recovered Steel from Production

F9

EA

F6

9.3

9.8

Recovered Steel from Manufactured Goods

s

Good

i Sem

Constr

uction

Consum

er Good

s

Others

hed

is Fin

Machin

d& ishe 15.3 Fin 1 t of ucuts r o Imp l Prod e Ste

Illustration of Steel Flows in EU 15, 2004

Steel in Society

ery

Packag in

g

Automo ti

ve

Crude Steel Consumtion 161.8 Cru de Ste el E xp ort

Production of Finished and Semi Finished Steel Products 156 Steel in Manufactured Goods

Export

Exp

ort o

f Fin

ishe

d an

of Stee

l in Ma

nufactu

red Go

ods

d Se

mi F inish

ed S

teel Prod u

To understand the global economy picture of minerals the end-user applications and the flow of steel is an important factor. Recovery and use of minerals and metal develop along with the economy. When the economy grows the demand for steel increases.

Steel is not a metal per se, but an alloy.

In a steel alloy, iron ore, coal, limestone, fluc agent og refractory masses are used. The iron ore is the metal, coal is a fossil fuel and in fluxing agent refractory minerals as olivine, serpentine and dolomite. Following the steel produc-

tion show how the demand of minerals and fossil fuels develop along with the economy since steel is pretty much the pillar of the economic development and industrialization.

The flow of steel. By following the flow of steel in a modern industry from recovery to production, there are several economic fields consists of mayor companies which has important influence on the world economy. Fields of: recovery, import, export, consumption, production and recycling.

cts 1

23.7

Resources: Import and export International Iron and Steel institute, 2007 Consolidation between steel companies in the world: The Boston Consulting Group.

Estimate for 2006 in figures from the Iron and Steel institute.

Utilization: OECD Steel Committee Top World Exporters of rolled steel, 1st may 2010 report, www.steelonthenet.com Flow of steel in –EU: EUROFER- The European Confederation of Iron and Steel industries 2007

$8,648,800,579,198

GOLD

GOLD IS COMMODITY MONEY

SUPPLY&DEMAND

Supply 49% Demand 51%

Gold has intrinic value because it is used in industry and in the making of jewelry.

Historically gold has been a common form of money because it is relatively easy to carry, measure, and verify for impurities.

THE VALUE OF ALL THE GOLD IN THE WORLD based on current gold price ($1,726)

Jewellery (2151 t) 57%

DEMANDFLOWS

Industrial (433 t) 11%

Gold production pr. kilograms. (2010) 320,000

1. China

2. United States

223,000

3. Australia

222,000 197,698

4. South Africa 5. Russian Federation

190,000

6. Peru

WHO DIGS FOR GOLD?

182,000

7. Indonesia

The biggest gold mining country in the world is China producing 320,000 kg pr. year (2010) producing 30% more than U.S and Australia that take 2. and 3. place.

130,000

8. Canada

97,000

9. Uzbekistan

Mine production (2209 t) 59%

SUPPLY FLOWS

Recycled gold (1323 t) 32% Net official sector sales (234 t) 6%

90,000

10. Ghana

86,000

11. Papua N.Guinea 12. Brazil

66,000

WHO OWNS THE GOLD?

60,000

13. Mexico

International financial statistics for official gold holdings show that United States onws the most gold: 8,133 tonnes (january 2012).

51,000

14. Colombia

47,000

15. Argentina 16. Mali

Investment (1182 t) 31%

47,000 42,000

17. Chile

40,000

18. Tanzania

40,000

10000 8000

2000

20. Kazakhstan

22,000

0

Official sector 17% Industrial 12%

4000

37,000

Investment 18%

ABOVE-GROUNDSTOCKS

6000

19. Philippines

Jewellery 51 %

Unaccounted for 2%

United States Germany

IMF

Italy

France

China Switzerland Russia Japan Netherlands

AVERAGE CASH COST PR/OZ IS RISING

GOLD PRICE

One of the major caveats related to gold mining and gold prices has been the rising cost of production. Higher labor costs, higher energy costs, and lower grade ores have all contributed to boosting costs.

Worldwide physical supply and demand for gold, movements in foreign exchange rates, inflation, interest rates and political turmoil are all factors that effects the movement of gold price.

The effects of all these factors are somewhat complex and variable. But the important point to remember is simply that they cause the price of gold to move independently of the prices of financial assets.

(Total cash cost US$/oz)

500

IS GOLD MINING PROFITABLE?

% 5 9 1

400

Gold production is a very energy- and labor-intensive process, making it very expensive to operate a gold mine... especially now. Over the past few years, rising energy and labor prices have forced global gold production costs to increase quite dramatically.

300

Cash cost margings per ounze illustrate the trends in profitability. By comparing the gold price and the production cost the profit can be described. The gold price today needs to be high to cover the expense of the increasing production cost.

200 100 0

The gold mine companies who are able to produce gold ounce with low cash cost are more profitable than others. If gold is a by pass product for mines the cash cost is much lower.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

TIMELINE FOR GOLD PRICE & PRODUCTION COST

Gold price US$ pr/oz Gold production cost US$ pr/oz

1990- 1997 – India introduces multiple laws over these 7 years that deregulate its gold market, making it easier for people to buy and sell gold.

$2000

$1500

$1000

1980 Gold reaches a peak of about $850 an ounce amid geopolitical instability introduced by Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan and the Shi’ite revolution in Iran.

1994 –1996 – the amount of gold that is forward sold rises almost 150% to 100 million ozs, and the price of gold plunges by a whopping $275 an ounze

The Gulf War

9/11 2001 attacs The Euro, European currency, is introduced, backed by a new European Central Bank, holding 15% of its reserves in gold.

Start of the Iran-Iraq war

$500

The price of gold went up by more than 250% in one year, hitting an all time record of $850 per ounce.

Then almost as quickly it collapsed.

$0

.82

Dec 1982

Dec 1983

Dec 1984

1982

1983

1984

Dec 1985

1985

Dec 1986

1986

Dec 1987

Dec 1988

Dec 1989

Dec 1990

1987

1988

1989

1990

United States becomes the world’s second largest gold Dec 1991 Dec 1992 Dec 1993 producing nation

1991

1992

1993

December 2003 – January 2004 gold breaks $400, reaching levels last traded in 1988. Investors increasingly buy gold as risk insurance for portfolios.

August 1999 – Gold falls to a low of $251.70 on worries about central banks reducing their gold reserves and mining companies selling gold in forward markets to protect against falling prices.

Dec 1994

Dec 1995

Dec 1996

Dec 1997

Dec 1998

Dec 1999

Dec 2000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Gold price continues to rise and further grow of the price is predicted

Gold companies increaced their production cause of price decline.

Des 2001

Dec 2002

Dec 2003

Dec 2004

2002

2003

2004

Gold reaches a 21year of low of about $250 an ounce

2001

Gold price falls, massive global economic recession Dec 2005after Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 the collapse of Lehman Brothers

2005

2006

2007

2008

Gold price rises, driven by a weaker dollar and economic Decuncertainty.

2009 Dec 2010

2009

Dec

2010 2011

WORLD BIGGEST GOLD MINE COMPANIES & MINES

10 biggest goldmines Other big goldmines

BARRICK COMPANY Barrick is the gold industry leader, with a portfolio of 26 operating mines located across five continents. The Company also has the largest reserves in the gold industry, with about 140 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves.

Barrick produced 7,765 millions ounce of gold in 2010. The Company is targeting growth in annual gold production to 9.0 million ounces within five year.

2010 Production

North America 40% Africa 8% Australia Pacific 25%

South America 27%

2010 Gold Reserves

Africa 9%

North America 40%

Australia Pacific11% South America 40%

Sources: www.gold.org, www.barrick.com, http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/gold-mining-production-costs, http://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2006/10/a-the-gold-timeline-a-history-of-gold-prices/, www.infomine.com, www.indexmundi.com.