WJI October 2018 Feature Sample

WIRE JOURNAL OCTOBER 2018

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MANUFACTURING

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FEATURE

Manufacturing Trends

This feature looks at how the use of Artificial Intelligence—best known now for its role in autonomous vehicles and robotics—enabled a recent subsea cable transmission record. It is followed by a range of topics, from another evolving tool, Augmented Reality, carbon nanotubes, an industry guru’s look at the current “big picture” of broadband, and more.

Given the importance of AI for the German economy and specifically for the industrial sector, several key questions arise: What are the key applications of AI in the industrial sector? what degree will these applications improve Howwill does techAITodeployment: it exists, but for wireactually and cable theperformance? evolution likely bethe slow The role ofwork Artifical Intelligencecontexts (AI) in industry evolving, but acan McKinsey up with Artificial nology in specific and ishow exactly it be report—“Smartening applied? What will practically Intelligence (AI) - What’s in it for Germany and its Industrial Sector?”—outlines a multitude of capabilities to machines change in daily work andexclusively production processes?

In theare following, we that willreflect sheditslight on which were long thought to belong to the human realm. Below edited excerpts potential. these questions in the context of eight use cases that demonstrate AI’s manifold applicaArtificial Intelligence (AI) in industry offers “a multialgorithms and libraries, relatively inexpensive cloudtions and enormous potential for performance improvement. tude of capabilities to machines which were long thought based computing power, and the proliferation of sensors to belong exclusively to the human realm.” Well-trained generating data.

AI is capable of performing certain tasks at the same In the industrial sector, AI application is supported by skill level as humans but with the additional advantages the increasing adoption of devices and sensors connected Impact of use cases across multiple industries of high scalability and no need for pauses. Adoption of through the Internet of Things (IoT). Production AI has become increasingly easier due to freely available machines, vehicles, or devices by human workers Impact High carried Medium Low Industry

Use case Products and services

Manufacturing operations

Aerospace

Automotive AutoOEMs/commer- motive cial vehicles suppliers

Industrial equipment

Semiconductors

Autonomous vehicles AI-enhanced predictive maintenance Collaborative and context-aware robots Yield enhancement in manufacturing Automated quality testing AI-enhanced supply chain management

Business processes

High performance R&D projects Business support function automation

The potential of AI will vary depending on how highly automated existing sectors already are. McKinsey chart.

46To | WIRE JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL do this, we first visually highlight

the relative impact of each use case across five focal industries in the industrial sector and then describe each use case in detail. The five focal

Comparing an AI-based approach to traditional condition monitoring or more classical maintenance strategies like usage-based exchange, a considerable improvement can be expected due to better failure prediction.

Depending on the starting point and the level of redundancy, availability can sometimes increase by more than 20%. Inspection costs may be reduced by up to 25% and an overall reduction of up to 10% of annual maintenance costs is possible.

Regarding industrial robots, they remain limited as they generally cannot react to changes in their environment, and they need to operate in fenced-in, robots-only areas.

Significant advancements in AI, however, are enabling a new generation of flexible, non-special-purpose robots that need less configuration time and are easier to incorporate into specific environments. Further, their use can create a shared environment of robots and humans.

AI-enabled root cause analytics can improve yield by reducing scrap rates. Second, minimizing the amount of equipment and maintenance required, AI can improve overall equipment effectiveness. Third, AI-optimized testing procedures are less expensive; and fourth, they can lead to higher throughput by reducing/stabilizing the flow factor. Overall, the use of AI can lead to a reduction in yield detraction by up to 30%.

AI: it’s on the way, but beyond being the ultimate tool, is it a friend or a foe?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming ingrained in the lexicon, and with buzzwords like “Deep Learning”and “Artificial Neural Network,” there is a lot to take in.

Per Crunchbase.com, a search of “AI” on Sept. 26, 2018, found 10,784 companies listed. AI can come in either a system that works on a higher level, but doesn’t really simulate human behavior (narrow AI) or one that can basically think like a human (strong AI).

What is AI? A Google search returned 2.97 billion hits. A search of a “simple explanation of AI” led to a recent column

by Oksana Tunikova, and resulted in the below edited excerpts.

Basically, AI is the ability of a machine or a computer program to think and learn. The concept is to build machines that are capable of thinking, acting and learning like humans, able to interact with their environment and act upon the received data in an intelligent manner. There are a few musts for a machine/computer program to be considered AI. First, it should be able to mimic human thought process and behavior. Second, it should act in a desired human-like way: being intelligent, rational and ethical.

Artificial intelligence is not the same as machine learning, although that is the most common application. Some people think of AI as a technology, but it is more a broad concept in which machines are able to deal with tasks in a way that would be called “intelligent” or “smart.”

Many people associate AI with the distant future, not likely to become a part of their lives anytime soon, yet it already can be widely seen today. Think Siri or Alexa.

AI is also making headway in unexpected areas. For example, some short news stories on the Associated Press or Yahoo! were written by AI. Some people think AI is still in its infancy while others fear we are only a few years away from it gaining control over humanity. The truth, however, likely lies somewhere in between. Per the most trustworthy forecasts out there, AI will outsmart humans at virtually everything in the following 45 years.

Time will show whether AI is our greatest existential threat or a tech blessing that will improve our quality of life in many different ways. So far, just one thing remains perfectly clear: creating AI has been one of the most remarkable events ever for humankind.

OCTOBER 2018 | 47

FEATURE

generate enormous amounts of data. AI enables the use of such data for highly value-adding tasks such as predictive maintenance or performance optimization at unprecedented levels of accuracy. Hence, the combination of IoT and AI is expected to kick off the next wave of performance improvements, especially in the industrial sector.

AI is also big business. The global market for AI-based services, software, and hardware is projected to see annual growth of 15 to 25% through 2025, by which time the market should be worth $130 billion.

AI will have a role in automation. A prior report by MGI estimated that just 1% of occupations in the U.S., and 2% in Germany, could be fully automated, but of greater importance is that the report said that 30% of activities can be automated in nearly two-thirds of occupations.

In terms of industrial sector deployment, the McKinsey report breaks down the potential of eight different uses for three areas: products and services, manufacturing operations and business processes that demonstrate AI’s manifold applications and potential for performance improvement. See the chart on opposite page.

The auto industry is a key beneficiary of AI deployment, but for industry as a whole there will be much potential benefit for its use in predictive maintenance.