ISSUE 01 MAY 2021
Expenditure Trends 2021 Government’s 2020 Budget represented a significant shift in fiscal policy, which was reflected in the 2021 Budget but with a stronger focus on government expenditure. The intention is to hold expenditure increases to below 1% per year over the next three to five years, well below the forecast consumer inflation of 4% per year. To reduce public spending, government plans to make real cuts to the numbers and remuneration of public employees; to squeeze “goods and services” (e.g., medicines, textbooks, spending on maintenance); and to reduce transfers to households in real terms. Core elements of public services (basic education, healthcare, social grants and the criminal justice system) will be fundamentally weakened and affect the most vulnerable segments of the population. The budget contradicts the government’s stated policy intentions in several respects, by reducing allocations to national health insurance, industrial policy and land reform, among others. Yet government has not indicated how its policy commitments will be reworked to accommodate these spending cuts, suggesting that inconsistencies between policy objectives and budget allocations will be managed by fighting fires as they arise.
FISCAL CONTEXT
However, on the eve of the coronavirus pandemic, the Minister of Finance tabled a budget that represented a significant shift in fiscal policy. The February 2020 Budget announced a large fiscal consolidation, whereby public-service wages would be frozen in nominal terms and growth in government consumption spending would be drastically curtailed. All this would take place in the first year of the plan and be sustained over the medium-term framework, rather than be left for future decisions.
PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
POLICYBRIEF
Over the last decade, falling per capita income, slowing tax revenues, and increasing spending pressures made the goal of stabilising the debt-to-income ratio appear unattainable. Government’s fiscal programme assumed that South Africa would turn the corner and growth would rebound. This meant postponing fiscal adjustment in the short term, in the hope that growth over the medium term would ease the strain of expenditure cuts.
A month later the county was in lockdown, forcing a pause in the planned consolidation. In 2020,1 the budget deficit reached 14% of GDP. However, South Africa was able to cushion the worst impacts of the crisis on income, business operations and social distress, through modest additions and huge reallocations of expenditure. At the same time fiscal pressures intensified, as shortly after the lockdown emerging markets experienced a large outflow of global capital. Coinciding with this, Moody’s downgraded its rating of South Africa’s sovereign debt to sub-investment (“junk”) grade. Interest rates on South Africa’s sovereign debt reached new heights (and remain elevated to this day). The combination of anaemic growth and very high interest rates on public debt make South Africa unusual when compared to other countries (Figure 1) and point to an unsustainable debt burden.
1.
Fiscal years are used throughout this document unless otherwise indicated, meaning in this case the 2021 fiscal year, which covers the period 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022.
PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
FIGURE 1 Interest rates and growth rates South Africa’s Interest rate (bind yield) and growth rate
2
Projection based on treasury assumptions and projections
1.2
Percentage points
4% 2% 0% -2%
-2
-1.6 -2.0
-3
Nominal GDP growth
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
Fiscal Year
2005
-6%
2006
-4%
-1
United States
0
6%
Turkey
8%
South Africa
1
Indonesia
10%
India
12%
Brazil
14%
Interest-growth differential in selected countries
-3.5
-4
1O year bond yield
Source: South African Reserve Bank, National Treasury IHS Markit and authors calculations
-4.5
-4.6
-5
Source: Blanchard et al. (2021)
The 2021 Budget signalled that the fiscal consolidation would proceed broadly in line with the plan tabled prior to the pandemic. However, previously proposed tax increases were taken off the table, and the income tax burden on middle-income workers was eased by adjusting thresholds more than inflation – a move that reversed the practice of the previous ten years. The Minister of Finance also announced reduced corporate tax rates (to be implemented in 2022). This tax relief meant the adjustment would focus more strongly on the expenditure side of the budget. The budget implies the largest and most sustained contraction in public spending since the transition to democracy, with historically unprecedented expenditure cuts (Figure 2). The intention is to hold nominal expenditure increases to below 1% per year over the next three to five years. This is far below consumer inflation, which is forecast to average about 4%, and will result in a 14% decline in real spending per capita up to 2023.
FIGURE 2 Spending growth and consumer inflation 18%
Projections: Budget 2021
15%
Annual percentage change
13% 10% 8% 5% 3%
Core primaryspending
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
Fiscal Year
1996
0%
Customer prices
Source: National Treasury (Budget Review 2021), StatsSA, IHSMarkit and authors calculations. Notes: Primary spending because excludes debt service costs and core spending because excludes payments for financial assets (largely state-owned company bailouts) and several self-financing expenditure items that are budget deficit neutral.
2
POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAMME TO REDUCE PUBLIC SPENDING The programme comprises several elements: Real cuts to the remuneration of public servants, with the nominal wage freeze budgeted to last four years (2020–2023). Government is currently in legal dispute with public sector unions over the first of these years, which was covered by a collective agreement. Whatever the outcome of the legal dispute, the likelihood is that the wage freeze will be contested and that industrial action will disrupt core public services in the period ahead. Public sector unions will complement industrial action with intense lobbying through the governing alliance. Reductions in the number of public employees, especially in labour-intensive government services such as health, education, defence and criminal justice. The pressure to stop recruiting and to encourage the attrition of current employees will be felt unevenly. The defence force and the police service will face the most intense pressure, but rising vacancy rates in healthcare and basic education are certain to weaken public services. A harder fiscal squeeze on “goods and services”, which have been at the frontline of consolidation efforts over the last ten years. They include critical inputs for the delivery of public services – medicines, textbooks, vehicles, information technology licenses, audit fees etc. – and spending on maintenance. These budgets are often redirected when government faces shortages in other, more immediate expenditure areas. Reduced transfers to households in real terms. Social grants make up the majority of these transfers, and the budget numbers imply a real erosion in the value of social grants over the next three years. These cuts mean that expenditure will grow very slowly over next three years, and yet the budget also indicates clear spending choices, as illustrated in Figure 3. The “economic” graph shows that capital spending and transfers to municipalities (which largely fund local infrastructure development) will outpace inflation. The slowest growth will be in transfers to households (mainly social grants) and compensation of employees. These choices about economic classification feed directly into growth rates by functional classification.2 Over the next three years, spending in three areas will grow faster than the average: Community development – water, roads, electricity, and passenger rail – will expand in real terms (i.e. grow faster than inflation.) and is also the most capital-intensive policy area. Economic development, which includes economic infrastructure. Higher education where allocations to universities and colleges will just keep pace with inflation. Allocations will fall dramatically in real terms to expenditure-intensive services: basic education, criminal justice and defence. Given the planned growth rates of these expenditure elements, it is difficult to see how current service levels will be maintained.
2. The functional classification of expenditure shows the policy intent of allocations (or the intended outputs of spending), while the economic classification shows the inputs purchased to achieve these goals.
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
3
FIGURE 3 Average annual growth in economic and functional expenditure items (2019–2023) Economic
Functional
Capital
Community development
5.0%
Transfers to municipalities
4.4% 3.2%
Goods and services
3.2%
Health
3.2%
Social protection
Transfers to public agencies & corporations Other transfers and subsidies
3.9% 2.6%
Average
2.4% 2.2% 1.7%
Basic education
3.1%
1.3%
General public services 2.5%
Transfers to households
0%
4.0%
Economic development
Average
Compensation of employees
5.2%
Universities and colleges
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
1.0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Police, courts and prisons Defence and state security
5%
0.6% -1.1%
-2% Source: Table A2 in Annexure
Source: Table A1 in Annexure
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
0%
2%
4%
6%
The budget also reflects choices about the allocation of resources between the three spheres of government, as illustrated in Figure 4.
FIGURE 4 Average annual growth in expenditure per government sphere (2019–2023) National departments*
1.1%
Provinces
1.3%
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
1.0%
Equitable share
3.0%
Conditional grants
4.8
Local government
6.2%
Equitable share
2.8%
Conditional grants General fuel levy sharing with metros
4.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Source: Table A4 in Annexure. Note: *Excludes payments for financial assets.
The local sphere of government enjoys the fastest rate of growth, which has been the case over the last decade and is driven mainly by the equitable share that ostensibly finances free basic water and electricity to households. However, it should be noted that local government receives the smallest share of national revenue and that the large cities depend mainly on locally raised revenues. If the large allocations for state companies (mainly Eskom) are taken out, national departments face the biggest real cuts, with planned expenditure growth at just 1.1% per year over the next three years. Provinces will see their equitable share, which mainly funds education and healthcare, grow at only 1% per year. Allocations for conditional grants grew more strongly, reflecting the fact that many of these grants support capital and investment activities.
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POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
IMPACT ON SPECIFIC GOVERNMENT SERVICES Healthcare In 2021, healthcare was allocated a large budget increase, driven by Covid-19 expenditures that include the purchase and distribution of vaccines (see Table A5 in Annexure). However, these once-off allocations for 2020 and 2021 will be withdrawn in 2022, and health spending will grow at only 2.4% per year over the medium term. This is far below the anticipated inflation rate and reflects reduced consumption spending on the remuneration of public servants, including health workers. Over the medium term, capital spending and vertical interventions will continue to grow in real terms. Allocations for new buildings will grow at the fastest pace (11.4%), while allocations for treatment programmes (HIV, TB and other communicable diseases) will grow slightly faster than inflation (4.3%). In 2020, the budget for community health workers increased significantly, responding in part to demands for higher remuneration for these semi-informal workers. At least one province (Gauteng) has recruited community health workers into public service employment, but further improvements in their remuneration look unlikely, as the budget remains flat at R2.6 billion over the next three years. The broader health system will face acute resourcing pressures. District health services (which includes the treatment of communicable diseases such as HIV and AIDS) will continue to grow by 2.2%, which is faster than other levels of care. Spending on provincial and central hospital services is estimated to increase by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively. Budgets for emergency medical services are projected to fall in nominal terms over the next three years. For the last decade, health system budgets have faced chronic spending pressures. Provincial resources have been insufficient to cover medicines and other essential consumables, resulting in large hidden deficits in the form of accrued liabilities. Together with salaries and maintenance, these elements of “consumption spending” now face acute real cuts, while budgets for medical equipment – which are often underspent – face the largest cuts.
Education Basic education accounts for one third of consolidated spending on compensation. Oddly, National Treasury expects compensation budgets in basic education to grow even more slowly than the average compensation budget (see Table A1 in Annexure). The Budget Review is frank about the impact that this will have (National Treasury, 2021: 59): Low compensation growth […] combined with early retirements, will reduce the number of available teachers. This, coupled with a rising number of learners, implies larger class sizes, especially in no-fee schools, which is expected to negatively affect learning outcomes.
Moreover, the budget shock is not confined to compensation (see Table A6 in Annexure). National Treasury estimates that education support material, teacher training and curriculum enhancement spending will all fall in real terms. Over the medium term, resources for goods and services will grow at less than 2% per year in nominal terms (i.e. at half the anticipated rate of inflation).
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
5
Higher education is protected from the full impact of cuts, although even their budgets will decline moderately in real terms. Resourcing of universities and directly to students through the NSFAS will continue to grow, whereas subsidies to technical colleges will fall in nominal terms, reflecting an overall fall in enrolment. New enrolments in universities are expected to rise, but at a far slower pace than in the last five years, and budget allocations will keep pace with the increased undergraduate numbers. This pattern – of squeezing technical colleges to fund universities – is at odds with government’s stated policy intentions, such as those set out in the White Paper on Post-school Education and Training.
Social protection Large transfers through the social grant system play a significant role in protecting young and old South Africans from poverty and vulnerability. Using the budget projections of social grant recipients and budgeted amounts per grant, Figure 4 shows the implied average monthly values over the medium term. In 2021, the child support grant, which is received by more than 13 million children, was increased by 3.4%, broadly in line with inflation, but will grow by 2.4% over the medium term, implying a significant fall in its real value. The real value of the old age grant, accessed by nearly four million South Africans, will also fall. Provincial departments of social development employ significant numbers of social workers who serve poor communities. Over the next few years, both the number of employees and their remuneration will decrease. Another notable feature of the social protection budget is a likely squeeze on the budget of SASSA, the social security agency, which will need to live without any nominal increase in its transfer over the next three years.
FIGURE 5 Average annual growth in social grant values (2019–2023) and annual adjustment (2021) 2.9% Disability 1.6%
2.5% Old age 1.6%
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
2.4% Child support 3.4%
1.3% Care dependency 1.6%
0%
1%
2% 2019–2023
Source: Table A7 in Annexure
6
POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
3% 2021
4%
Criminal justice Over the next three years, the criminal justice system is likely to see a significant erosion of its capabilities, as budgets for the police, prisons and court services will grow at less than half a percent per year (see Table A8 in Annexure). Once again, this reflects the compression of remuneration in these labour-intensive departments. The police compensation budget is set to fall in nominal terms, pointing to a significant reduction in headcounts even if the intended salary freeze is executed. Falling real allocations for legal aid, incarceration of prisoners, visible policing as well as detective services and crime intelligence are likely to have strong impacts on service provision, especially for poor communities.
Community and economic development As noted above, the community and economic development functions will grow faster than average, reflecting government’s commitment to “infrastructure”. However, within this overall trend there are significant shifts in resource allocation. In real terms, large reductions are anticipated for public housing and local public transport, and large nominal cuts in spending on industrial and agricultural policy subsidies and support, as well as government’s land reform programme.
Gender Women form a specific interest group that face high unemployment rates, greater incidences of poverty and increased vulnerability. The gendered nature of the economy and the impact of economic decisions necessitate the discussion of resource allocation along gender lines, to analyse whether it advances or limits full participation and gender equality. Gender responsive budgeting is an attempt to introduce gender awareness into planning, budgeting and monitoring and evaluation in order to allow for gender empowerment. Therefore, rather than a separate budget, it involves a careful review of the current budget to analyse the impact of all programmes on women. This presupposes that rich data exists to undertake such an analysis and that this approach is streamlined across various departments at all levels of government. An inadequate but feasible starting point is the allocation of budgetary expenditure to women. However, this does not preclude any other benefits that women receive from infrastructure spending or any other “gender-blind” allocations. A preliminary analysis indicates that in 2021, approximately 0.04% of total expenditure was allocated to women, youth and persons with disabilities. Recipients of the child support and old age grants are disproportionately female – 97% and 64% respectively as at December 2020. Therefore, declining real values of both of these grants in the medium term will affect mostly women. It is also common cause that these grants augment income in poorer households, which means that already poor households will face a stiff penalty in real terms. In terms of specific programmes that are targeted at women, the medium-term budget allocates R5 million per year to the Department of Women, Youth and Persons with Disabilities, to establish and operationalise a national council for gender-based violence and femicide. Another budgetary initiative specifically targeted at women is the Sanitary Dignity Programme, which received R209 million in 2020 and will be split between the departments of basic education and social development that oversee this programme at the provincial level.
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
7
POLICY IMPLICATIONS The budget has several challenging implications. 1. The fiscal policy stands in sharp tension with government’s commitment to economic recovery. Government consumption amounts to approximately one fifth of total demand in South Africa’s economy. Over the medium term, this huge aggregate will contract in real terms by around 1.5% each year. This will be a very strong headwind that efforts at a growth recovery will need to offset.
2. Core elements of public services – basic education, healthcare, social grants and the criminal justice system – will be fundamentally weakened. Government’s plan to reduce real compensation for workers in these sectors means heightened industrial action, rising incentives for the best qualified workers to seek employment outside the public service, and reduced headcounts that erode the quality of human capital in the public sector (e.g., reliance on attrition or early retirement).
3. The most vulnerable segments of the labour market will be most negatively affected. For instance, the budget implies a halt to recruitment into the army and police, and a fall in technical college enrolment, which will add pressure to youth not in education or employment. Women undertake a larger share of unpaid work and so are excluded from the formal or waged segment of the labour market and remain increasingly dependent on the state. However, a lack of data hinders the effective tracking of unpaid labour activities and the effectiveness of gender programmes to measure progress
4. In addition to reducing budgets, resources will be reallocated from consumption to investment. If carried to extremes, this has the potential to erode the quality of public services and place additional pressure on front-line service provision (which depends overwhelmingly on current budgets). For instance, the healthcare budget prioritises the construction of new buildings and vertical interventions under central government authority, such as the procurement of drugs to combat HIV and TB. However, provincial governments run the public health system (hospitals and clinics), which is where expenditure is expected to fall in real terms over the next three to five years. In combination, this raises the prospect of government unveiling new “hospitals” without health workers, medicines or equipment.
5. The budget contradicts government’s stated policy intentions in several respects. For instance, land reform, industrial policy, technical training, labour market regulation, national health insurance, and many other policy commitments will see huge reductions in resource allocation. Government has not indicated how its policy commitments will be reworked in light of these cuts, which suggests that it will continue to manage the inconsistency between policy objectives and budget allocations by fighting fires as they arise (as seems to be the case for university education). If this results in slippage against budget targets, the credibility of the budget will be placed in question. If not, the political economy consequences of enforcing the budget could become increasingly fraught.
REFERENCES Blanchard OJ, Felman J and Subramanian A. 2021. Does the new fiscal consensus in advanced economies travel to emerging markets? Policy Brief 21-7. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics. National Treasury. 2021. Budget Review. Pretoria: National Treasury.
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POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
ANNEXURES NOTE ON TABLES AND FIGURES Each table shows total expenditure (in R billions) over the period 2017–2023 (fiscal years). Where available audited outcomes of expenditure for 2017–2019 have been used. Where audited outcomes are not available, revised estimates of expenditure are presented for 2019. The following columns are shown on the right-hand side of each table: Share: This column shows the ratio between that row and the bottom/total row of the table, calculated over the period 2019–2023, and gives an indication of the relative size of each row in the table. Annual growth rates: These columns show the average annual compound growth rate over three periods, as follows: ST (short term: 2019–2021), MT (medium term: 2019–2023), and LT (long term: 2017–2023). The medium term is most widely referenced throughout the document, and is illustrated in the figures that follow each table. The tables are compiled entirely from data provided in National Treasury budget documents, the estimates of national expenditure and online spreadsheets published on National Treasury’s website.
TABLE A1 CONSOLIDATED SPENDING: Functional classification Estimated outcomes R billions
2017
2018
2019
Budget
2020
2021
Projections 2022
2023
Annual growth rates Share
FY
MT
LT
Community development
183,7
188,8
196,3
211,5
218,8
234,0
240,7
14,2%
5,6%
5,2%
4,6%
Economic development
177,5
182,9
186,1
191,9
207,5
210,9
217,2
13,0%
5,6%
3,9%
3,4%
General public services
71,4
73,2
74,5
72,2
77,3
77,9
78,5
4,9%
1,8%
1,3%
1,6%
Health
192,5
207,4
223,1
247,0
248,8
245,9
245,0
15,6%
5,6%
2,4%
4,1%
Basic education
230,8
245,3
261,4
266,3
272,3
277,0
279,5
17,5%
2,1%
1,7%
3,2%
Universities and colleges
57,5
76,7
89,2
101,5
101,8
103,6
104,2
6,4%
6,8%
4,0%
10,4%
136,9
143,0
152,0
154,9
153,1
155,6
155,9
9,9%
0,3%
0,6%
2,2%
49,1
48,2
50,3
54,0
46,7
47,8
48,1
3,2%
-3,7%
-1,1%
-0,3%
Criminal justice system Defence and state security Social protection
178,7
190,5
220,6
256,8
229,4
239,6
240,8
15,3%
2,0%
2,2%
5,1%
1 278,1
1 356,1
1 453,5
1 556,1
1 555,6
1 592,2
1 610,0
100,0%
3,5%
2,6%
3,9%
–
–
–
–
12,0
5,0
5,0
0,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
9,8
10,3
12,3
9,2
11,0
11,2
11,5
0,5%
-5,4%
-1,7%
2,6%
Skills levy institutions
16,3
17,5
18,3
10,2
17,8
19,2
20,8
0,9%
-1,3%
3,2%
4,1%
Social security funds
53,7
62,1
67,3
156,5
105,9
86,6
84,4
5,0%
25,5%
5,8%
7,8%
Payments for financial assets
20,3
15,7
66,1
87,6
48,2
27,2
24,9
2,5%
-14,6%
-21,6%
3,4%
162,6
181,8
204,8
232,9
269,7
308,0
338,6
13,5%
14,8%
13,4%
13,0%
1 540,9
1 643,6
1 822,3
2 052,5
2 020,4
2 049,5
2 095,1
100,0%
5,3%
3,6%
5,3%
Total
Elements excluded from total Contingency reserve Arts, culture, sport and recreation
Debt-service costs Total
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
9
TABLE A2 CONSOLIDATED SPENDING: Economic classification Estimated outcomes R billions
2017
FY
MT
LT
528,0
565,1
574,4
583,8
587,1
587,9
29,8%
1,6%
1,0%
2,9%
Goods and services
181,4
191,4
206,0
229,3
241,2
232,2
233,8
11,8%
8,2%
3,2%
4,3%
Interest and rent on land
163,1
182,4
205,3
233,3
270,3
308,7
339,1
14,0%
14,8%
13,4%
13,0%
50,7
48,8
44,8
49,5
51,4
53,4
54,5
2,6%
7,2%
5,0%
1,2%
Transfers to municipalities
118,3
126,3
131,7
146,9
145,8
154,4
156,4
7,6%
5,2%
4,4%
4,8%
Transfers to households
234,6
254,2
286,4
401,3
324,0
316,3
315,5
16,9%
6,4%
2,5%
5,1%
Transfers to public agencies & corporations
146,4
162,0
180,2
168,9
189,3
197,9
204,0
9,7%
2,5%
3,2%
5,7%
71,0
83,0
92,3
98,5
98,8
102,0
104,2
5,1%
3,5%
3,1%
6,6%
Payments for financial assets Consolidated spending
2020
2021
2022
2023
Annual growth rates
494,6
Other trasnfers and subsidies
2019
Projections
Compensation of employees
Capital
2018
Budget
Share
19,3
14,8
65,1
86,6
46,8
25,3
22,7
2,5%
-15,2%
-23,2%
2,7%
1 479,4
1 590,9
1 776,8
1 988,7
1 951,4
1 977,3
2 018,0
100,0%
4,8%
3,2%
5,3%
–
–
–
–
12,0
5,0
5,0
1 479,4
1 590,9
1 776,8
1 988,7
1 963,4
1 982,3
2 023,0
Elements excluded from total Contingency reserve Total consolidated national and provincial expenditure
TABLE A3 CONSOLIDATED SPENDING: Compensation of employees by budget group Estimated outcomes R billions
2018
2019
2020
2021
Projections 2022
2023
Annual growth rates Share
FY
MT
LT
Basic education
178,0
190,0
203,3
204,9
208,2
211,4
212,0
11,5%
1,2%
1,1%
3,0%
Health
120,8
130,5
140,9
147,1
150,7
149,8
149,2
8,1%
3,4%
1,4%
3,6%
Police services
71,5
76,0
81,5
80,0
80,6
80,7
80,8
4,4%
-0,5%
-0,2%
2,1%
Law courts and prisons
29,2
30,4
32,4
33,3
34,1
34,2
34,0
1,9%
2,6%
1,3%
2,6%
Defence and state security
25,9
27,6
29,3
28,6
27,1
27,1
27,4
1,5%
-3,8%
-1,6%
0,9%
Economic regulation and infrastructure
18,8
20,4
20,8
22,0
24,2
25,4
26,3
1,3%
7,8%
6,0%
5,8%
Public administration and fiscal affairs
19,5
20,4
20,3
19,7
21,7
22,4
22,5
1,2%
3,4%
2,6%
2,4%
Community development
15,4
16,2
17,3
18,0
18,9
19,5
20,0
1,0%
4,6%
3,7%
4,4%
Social protection
12,4
12,8
14,4
15,0
15,4
15,4
15,4
0,8%
3,3%
1,8%
3,7%
9,8
10,5
11,1
11,4
12,4
13,0
13,3
0,7%
5,4%
4,5%
5,3%
10,2
10,9
11,8
12,1
12,3
12,4
12,5
0,7%
2,3%
1,4%
3,3%
Industrialisation and exports
8,7
9,3
9,6
10,1
10,5
10,8
11,1
0,6%
4,3%
3,7%
4,3%
Executive and legislative organs
6,5
6,9
7,7
7,9
8,0
8,2
8,3
0,4%
2,0%
1,8%
4,3%
Social security funds
3,5
3,8
4,2
4,4
5,0
5,3
5,5
0,3%
10,0%
7,0%
7,7%
Home affairs
4,0
4,4
4,6
4,7
4,8
4,8
4,9
0,3%
1,4%
1,5%
3,3%
Innovation, science and technology
4,4
4,5
4,2
4,5
4,8
4,9
5,1
0,3%
6,3%
5,0%
2,5%
Job creation and labour affairs
2,8
3,0
3,3
6,3
4,6
3,6
3,6
0,2%
19,0%
2,5%
4,6%
Arts, culture, sport and recreation
3,4
3,6
3,9
4,0
4,2
4,3
4,3
0,2%
3,7%
2,9%
4,1%
Post-school education and training Agriculture and rural development
External affairs Total
10
2017
Budget
3,0
3,1
3,2
2,9
2,8
2,9
2,9
0,2%
-5,2%
-2,5%
-1,0%
547,9
584,4
623,8
637,0
650,4
656,0
659,3
35,5%
2,1%
1,4%
3,1%
POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
FIGURE A3 Annual average growth rate of employee compensation (2019–2023) Social security funds
7.0%
Economic regulation and infrastructure
6.0% 3.7%
Community development 3.0%
Other national functions
2.9%
Arts, culture, sport and recreation Public administration and fiscal affairs
2.6% 1.8%
Social protection Health
1.4%
Agriculture and rural development
1.4% 1.3%
Law courts and prisons
1.1%
Basic education Police services
-0.2%
Defence and state security
-1.6%
-2%
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
TABLE A4 Allocations to spheres of government Estimated outcomes R billions National departments
Budget
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Projections
Annual growth rates
2022
2023
Share
ST
MT
LT
592,6
634,3
749,7
804,5
763,3
736,3
739,0
49,5%
0,9%
-0,4%
3,7%
Payments for financial assets
19,3
14,8
65,1
86,6
46,8
25,3
22,7
3,2%
-15,2%
-23,2%
2,7%
National Depts excl payments for financial assets
573,3
619,5
684,6
717,9
716,5
711,0
716,3
46,3%
2,3%
1,1%
3,8%
Provinces
538,6
572,0
613,5
628,3
639,5
643,3
646,8
41,4%
2,1%
1,3%
3,1%
Equitable share
441,3
470,3
505,6
520,7
523,7
524,1
525,3
33,9%
1,8%
1,0%
2,9%
Conditional grants
97,2
101,7
107,9
107,6
115,8
119,3
121,5
7,5%
3,6%
3,0%
3,8%
Indirect transfers to provinces*
3,8
3,9
3,9
4,2
4,4
4,9
4,9
0,3%
5,7%
5,5%
4,2%
Local government
111,1
118,5
123,0
138,5
138,1
146,1
148,4
9,1%
6,0%
4,8%
4,9%
Equitable share
55,6
60,8
65,6
84,5
78,0
83,1
83,6
5,2%
9,0%
6,2%
7,0%
Conditional grants
43,7
45,3
44,2
40,0
45,5
47,7
49,4
3,0%
1,4%
2,8%
2,1%
“General fuel levy sharing with metros”
11,8
12,5
13,2
14,0
14,6
15,3
15,4
0,9%
5,4%
4,0%
4,6%
7,8
7,9
7,0
6,9
7,1
8,2
8,5
0,5%
0,2%
4,8%
1,4%
1 242,3
1 324,8
1 486,2
1 571,3
1 540,9
1 525,7
1 534,2
100,0%
1,8%
0,8%
3,6%
12,0
5,0
5,0
Indirect transfers to local government* Total: Allocated spending
Elements excluded from total Contingency reserve Not assigned Debt-service costs Main budget expenditure
11,6
32,1
33,2
162,6
181,8
204,8
232,9
269,7
308,0
338,6
1 404,9
1 506,6
1 690,9
1 804,2
1 834,3
1 870,8
1 911,0
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
11
TABLE A5 Healthcare R billions
Estimated outcomes
Budget
2017 2018 2019 2020
2021
Projections 2022
2023
Annual growth rates Share
FY
MT
LT
1,4%
3,6%
Consolidated economic classfication Compensation of employees Goods and services
120,8
130,5
140,9
147,1
150,7
149,8
149,2
61,0%
3,4%
55,3
59,1
64,1
75,8
80,1
75,4
74,2
30,6%
11,8%
3,7%
5,0%
Transfers and subsidies
7,0
8,0
7,4
6,5
6,5
7,6
8,3
3,0%
-5,9%
2,9%
2,7%
Buildings and other fixed structures
5,8
6,3
5,6
9,9
6,4
8,2
8,7
3,2%
6,9%
11,4%
7,1%
Machinery and equipment
3,6
3,4
5,0
7,8
5,0
4,8
4,7
2,2%
0,2%
-1,6%
4,6%
District health services
98,5
106,1
105,5
107,9
107,6
43,4%
3,5%
2,2%
–
Central hospital services
44,1
44,6
44,1
45,1
46,6
18,6%
-0,1%
1,3%
–
Provincial hospital services
36,4
37,2
38,1
39,1
39,0
15,7%
2,4%
1,8%
–
Emergency medical services
8,2
7,3
7,8
8,1
8,1
3,3%
-2,6%
-0,4%
–
Consolidated programmes
Selected national programmes and transfers Treatment of HIV, TB and other diseases
17,6
20,1
20,7
21,2
23,6
24,4
24,5
9,5%
6,8%
4,3%
5,7%
Tertiary services grant
11,7
12,4
13,2
14,0
13,7
14,0
14,0
5,7%
2,0%
1,6%
3,1%
Health facilities grant
5,7
6,1
6,3
6,3
6,4
6,9
7,2
2,7%
0,8%
3,3%
4,1%
Health professions grant
2,6
2,8
3,8
4,3
4,1
4,0
4,0
1,7%
2,7%
1,0%
7,2%
1,5
2,6
2,5
2,6
2,6
1,0%
28,6%
14,7%
–
Community health workers National health insurance programme
0,6
1,2
1,8
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,4
0,6% -14,6%
-5,8%
14,5%
Regulators and agencies (statutory and non-profit)
0,9
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,3
1,3
0,5%
6,8%
2,4%
6,2%
Laboratory services (transfer)
0,7
0,8
0,8
0,9
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,3% -10,1%
-7,6%
-4,2%
192,6
207,5
223,1
247,0
248,8
245,9
245,0
2,4%
4,1%
Total: Consolidated health spending
100,0%
5,6%
FIGURE A5 Annual average growth in expenditure for selected healthcare elements (2019–2023) Buildings and other fixed structures
11.4%
Treatment of HIV, TB and other diseases
4.3% 3.7%
Goods and services
3.3%
Health facilities grant Total: Consolidated health spending
2.4% 2.2%
District health services
1.8%
Provincial hospital services
1.6%
Tertiary services grant
1.4%
Compensation of employees
1.3%
Central hospital services NHI and health professions training grants
0.8% -0.4%
Emergency medical services
-1.6%
Machinery and equipment
-2%
12
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
0%
POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
TABLE A6 Education BASIC EDUCATION Estimated outcomes R billions
Budget
2017
2018
2019
2020
178,0
190,0
203,3
204,9
208,2
211,4
212,0
Goods and services
22,5
24,0
26,1
26,5
27,7
27,4
Non-profit institutions
14,9
16,3
17,7
23,2
19,4
Buildings and other fixed structures
11,7
11,1
10,2
7,9
203,3
Property payments Workbooks and LTSM
Compensation of employees
“Provincial compensation of employees”
Subsidies to schools School Infrastructure
2021
Projections 2022
2023
Annual growth rates Share
ST
MT
LT
76,6%
1,2%
1,1%
3,0%
28,2
10,0%
3,0%
1,9%
3,9%
20,4
21,6
7,5%
4,7%
5,1%
6,3%
11,8
12,9
12,8
4,1%
7,5%
5,9%
1,6%
206,1
207,5
210,7
211,2
76,6%
1,0%
1,0%
–
3,6
3,9
4,5
3,8
4,2
1,5%
11,8%
3,8%
–
5,3
5,9
5,0
5,3
5,4
2,0%
-2,5%
0,5%
–
16,7
22,0
19,4
20,4
21,6
7,4%
7,6%
6,5%
–
12,3
12,2
12,0
11,2
14,0
14,6
14,9
4,9%
8,0%
5,5%
3,3%
National school nutrition programme
6,4
6,8
7,2
7,7
8,1
8,5
8,9
3,0%
6,3%
5,4%
5,5%
Care and Support in Schools
6,7
7,1
7,5
7,9
8,4
8,8
9,2
3,1%
6,0%
5,2%
5,3%
Teacher training (through NSFAS)
1,1
1,2
1,2
1,3
1,3
1,4
1,4
0,5%
3,4%
2,7%
3,7%
Curriculum and Quality Enhancement Programmes
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,5
1,7
1,7
1,7
0,6%
4,5%
2,8%
2,5%
231,0
245,4
261,5
266,4
272,3
277,0
279,5
100,0%
2,1%
1,7%
3,2%
Consolidated basic education
HIGHER EDUCATION Estimated outcomes R billions
Budget
2017
2018
2019
2020
MT
Universities
41,9
59,1
73,3
78,3
81,2
84,1
84,7
70,5%
5,2%
3,7%
12,5%
University Subsidies
31,6
36,9
42,4
43,1
45,6
47,3
47,7
39,7%
3,7%
3,0%
7,1%
University subsidies (exluding special projects)
27,3
32,0
37,0
38,9
40,7
42,4
42,8
35,4%
4,9%
3,7%
7,8%
2,5
2,7
2,5
1,7
2,3
2,2
2,2
1,9%
-3,4%
-3,3%
-2,3%
10,0
21,8
30,5
34,8
35,2
36,3
36,4
30,4%
7,3%
4,5%
24,1%
NSFAS: Administration
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,3
0,3
0,3
0,3
0,3%
3,9%
2,8%
9,1%
Colleges
7,7
10,9
12,5
12,7
13,1
13,4
13,2
11,4%
2,3%
1,4%
9,4%
College subsidies
1,5
3,0
3,9
4,6
4,1
3,9
3,8
3,6%
2,3%
-0,4%
16,9%
College compensation of employees
6,0
6,4
7,0
7,0
7,5
7,9
8,0
6,6%
3,8%
3,5%
4,8%
Community adult education
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,2
2,4
2,5
2,6
2,1%
8,5%
5,7%
4,9%
Skills development levy
16,3
17,5
18,3
10,2
17,8
19,2
20,8
15,2%
-1,3%
3,2%
4,1%
SETAs
13,1
14,0
14,6
8,1
14,3
15,4
16,6
12,1%
-1,3%
3,2%
4,0%
3,2
3,5
3,7
2,0
3,6
3,8
4,2
3,0%
-1,3%
3,2%
4,4%
68,6
90,3
107,1
104,3
115,6
120,2
122,3
100,0%
3,9%
3,4%
10,1%
National Student Financial Aid Scheme
National Skills Fund TOTAL
2022
2023
Annual growth rates ST
Universities infrastructure grant
2021
Projections Share
LT
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
13
FIGURE A6 Annual average growth in expenditure for selected education elements (2019–2023) Subsidies to schools
6.5%
Community education
5.7%
School Infrastructure
5.5%
National school nutrition programme
5.4%
National Student Financial Aid Scheme
4.5%
Universities
3.7%
Skills development levy
3.2%
Teacher training (through NSFAS)
2.7%
Consolidated basic education
1.7%
Technical colleges
1.4%
Basic ed: compensation of employees
1.1%
Workbooks and support material
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
0.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
TABLE A7 Social protection Estimated outcomes R billions
2017
2018
2019
Budget 2020
2021
Projections 2022
Annual growth rates
2023
Share
ST
MT
LT
SOCIAL GRANTS Budget (R billions) Child support Old age Disability Foster care Care dependency Grant in aid Social relief of distress
150,3 55,8 64,1 20,9 5,2 2,8 0,8 0,5
162,7 60,6 70,5 22,0 5,1 3,1 1,0 0,4
190,0 70,7 83,5 25,1 5,4 3,6 1,4 0,4
220,6 84,9 83,1 24,4 5,0 3,6 1,6 18,0
193,4 73,3 86,5 23,6 4,3 3,7 1,6 0,4
205,3 77,2 93,1 24,7 4,1 3,9 1,9 0,4
206,1 77,0 95,1 24,3 3,6 3,9 1,8 0,4
85,5% 32,3% 37,2% 10,3% 1,9% 1,6% 0,7% 1,6%
12 239 000 12 508 493 12 776 609 13 008 661 13 260 699 13 515 041 13 767 389 3 392 000 3 538 207 3 655 293 3 741 413 3 859 641 3 977 600 4 098 460 1 057 000 1 052 105 1 058 203 1 001 406 998 516 996 429 993 206 400 000 365 311 350 481 315 133 283 718 254 611 229 440 149 000 151 465 154 943 151 401 156 417 161 623 167 027
– – – – –
0,9% 1,9% 1,8% -3,1% -10,3% 0,8% 6,9% -1,4%
2,0% 5,4% 2,2% 5,5% 3,3% 6,8% -0,8% 2,5% -9,8% -6,1% 2,0% 5,4% 6,6% 14,2% -0,9% -5,5%
Recipients Child support Old age* Disability Foster care Care dependency
1,9% 1,9% 2,8% 2,9% -2,9% -1,6% -10,0% -10,1% 0,5% 1,9%
2,0% 3,2% -1,0% -8,8% 1,9%
Average monthly value Child support Old age* Disability Foster care Care dependency
380 1 576 1 650 1 085 1 589
404 1 661 1 739 1167 1 688
461 1 903 1 977 1 282 1 934
544 1 851 2 030 1 334 1 964
461 1 867 1 968 1 274 1 949
476 1 951 2 066 1 328 1 998
466 1 934 2 039 1 298 1 941
– – – – –
0,0% -1,0% -0,2% -0,3% 0,4%
0,3% 0,4% 0,8% 0,3% 0,1%
3,5% 3,5% 3,6% 3,0% 3,4%
Total Transfers to households 150,6
162,9
190,2
223,7
195,6
205,4
206,2
SA Social Security Agency (SASSA) 7,2 SASSA/Total 4,8%
7,8 4,8%
7,6 4,0%
7,5 3,3%
7,5 3,8%
7,5 3,7%
7,6 3,7%
86,0%
1,4%
2,0%
5,4%
3,2% –
-0,6% –
0,0% –
0,8% –
6,4 18,9 12,4 8,3 1,0
6,7 20,2 12,8 7,1 0,9
7,3 22,3 14,4 7,6 1,0
8,4 23,0 15,0 9,2 0,3
8,3 23,6 15,4 8,5 0,9
8,5 23,9 15,4 8,7 0,9
8,9 24,2 15,4 9,0 0,7
3,5% 9,9% 6,4% 3,6% 0,3%
6,2% 3,0% 3,3% 6,0% -2,1%
4,8% 2,1% 1,8% 4,4% -8,6%
5,6% 4,3% 3,7% 1,4% -6,0%
178,8
190,5
220,9
256,8
229,4
239,6
240,8
100,0%
1,9%
2,2%
5,1%
OTHER SOCIAL PROTECTION BUDGETS Transfers to non-profits Provincial social development Compensation of employees Goods and services Payments for capital assets Consolidated social development
14
POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
FIGURE A7 Annual average growth in expenditure for grants (2019–2023) 2.4% Child support 3.4%
2.5% Old age 1.6%
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
2.9% Disability 1.6%
1.8% Foster care 1.0%
1.3%
Care dependency
1.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2019–2023
4%
2021
TABLE A8 Criminal justice and defence Estimated outcomes R billions
Budget
2017
2018
2019
2020
Defence
48,4
47,9
50,2
54,2
Admin Military operations Army Airforce Navy Military health Military logistics and auxillary
4,9 3,2 16,7 6,8 4,6 4,9 7,4
5,1 3,2 16,4 6,3 4,5 5,1 7,4
5,3 3,5 16,8 6,7 4,7 5,4 7,9
5,4 4,6 16,6 7,5 5,0 6,1 8,9
Justice
16,6
17,2
18,2
2,0 6,3 1,2 3,7 1,8 1,9
2,4 6,3 1,2 3,8 1,8 2,0
Police
86,5
Admin Visible policing Detective services Crime intelligence Protection (VIPs and state property)
Annual growth rates
2022
2023
Share
ST
MT
LT
46,3
46,8
47,2
25,7%
-4,0%
-1,6%
-0,4%
5,5 3,6 14,5 6,0 4,3 5,3 7,1
5,6 3,6 14,5 5,9 4,5 5,2 7,4
5,6 3,6 14,8 5,9 4,5 5,2 7,4
2,9% 2,0% 8,1% 3,4% 2,4% 2,9% 4,1%
1,6% 1,5% -6,9% -5,6% -4,7% -0,5% -5,1%
1,4% 0,8% -3,0% -3,1% -1,1% -0,5% -1,4%
2,4% 2,0% -1,9% -2,2% -0,4% 1,3% 0,2%
18,7
19,1
19,4
19,5
10,0%
2,5%
1,8%
2,7%
2,5 6,4 1,3 4,0 2,0 2,1
2,6 6,5 1,3 4,3 2,0 2,4
2,5 6,6 1,4 4,4 2,0 2,4
2,6 6,6 1,4 4,5 2,1 2,4
2,7 6,5 1,4 4,5 2,1 2,4
1,4% 3,4% 0,7% 2,3% 1,1% 1,2%
-0,1% 1,6% 2,8% 5,3% 1,3% 7,5%
1,5% 0,3% 2,1% 3,2% 1,6% 3,8%
5,5% 0,5% 3,2% 3,3% 3,0% 4,0%
90,3
95,9
99,6
96,4
96,9
97,1
51,0%
0,2%
0,3%
1,9%
18,3 43,9 17,7 3,7 2,8
18,5 47,1 17,8 3,9 3,0
19,8 49,7 18,9 4,2 3,4
19,0 53,4 19,7 4,2 3,3
19,9 49,5 19,5 4,1 3,2
19,9 49,9 19,7 4,1 3,2
20,0 50,0 19,7 4,1 3,2
10,4% 26,5% 10,2% 2,2% 1,7%
0,4% -0,2% 1,8% -0,5% -2,2%
0,3% 0,1% 1,1% -0,2% -1,0%
1,5% 2,2% 1,8% 1,8% 2,3%
Prisons
22,8
23,8
25,2
25,6
25,2
25,5
25,6
13,3%
0,1%
0,4%
2,0%
Admin Incarceration Rehabilitation and reintegration Prisoner care
3,9 13,9 2,6 2,3
4,3 14,5 2,7 2,3
4,9 15,2 2,9 2,2
5,3 14,7 3,0 2,6
4,4 15,0 3,4 2,4
4,5 14,8 3,5 2,6
4,5 14,9 3,5 2,7
2,5% 7,8% 1,7% 1,3%
-5,6% -0,8% 9,1% 5,4%
-2,0% -0,4% 4,8% 4,9%
2,5% 1,1% 5,1% 2,2%
174,2
179,1
189,5
198,0
187,0
188,5
189,3
100,0%
-0,7%
0,0%
1,4%
Admin Court Services State legal services National prosecuiting authority Legal Aid Magistrates’ salaries
Total
2021
Projections
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
15
FIGURE A8 Annual average growth in expenditure on selected criminal justice and defence elements (2019–2023) Prisoner care
4.9%
Offender rehabilitation and reintegration
4.8%
NPA
3.2%
Legal Aid
1.6%
Detective services
1.1%
Military operations
0.8%
Court Services
0.3%
Visible policing
0.1%
Crime intelligence
-0.2%
Incarceration
-0.4%
Protection (VIPs and state property)
-1.0%
Navy
-1.1%
Military logisics and auxillary
-1.4%
Army
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
-3.0%
Airforce
-3.1%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Budget
Projections
3%
4%
5%
TABLE A9 Community development Estimated outcomes R billions
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Share
ST
MT
LT
Housing: local
11,4
11,3
11,7
10,6
11,4
11,5
12,0
5,2%
-1,3%
0,8%
0,9%
Housing: provincial
20,0
19,0
19,6
15,5
17,6
18,3
19,1
8,1%
-5,2%
-0,6%
-0,7%
6,1
5,3
5,0
3,6
5,1
6,0
6,3
2,3%
0,6%
5,9%
0,5%
Household electrification Community libraries
1,4
1,4
1,5
1,2
1,5
1,6
1,6
0,7%
-0,2%
1,1%
1,7%
Municipal infrastructure
16,7
16,0
16,4
16,1
17,4
18,7
19,6
8,0%
2,8%
4,4%
2,7%
Local equitable share
55,6
60,8
65,6
84,5
78,0
83,1
83,6
35,7%
9,0%
6,2%
7,0%
National roads
16,3
18,9
21,7
20,9
22,1
21,7
22,6
9,9%
0,9%
1,0%
5,7%
Provincial roads maintence
10,0
10,3
10,6
10,5
11,9
12,5
13,1
5,3%
5,9%
5,2%
4,5%
Regional bus services
5,7
6,0
6,3
6,7
7,1
7,1
7,4
3,1%
6,1%
4,0%
4,4%
Local public transport
6,1
6,3
6,4
4,4
6,5
6,8
6,8
2,8%
1,1%
1,6%
1,8%
14,5
15,9
16,6
9,6
16,8
20,0
20,6
7,5%
0,7%
5,6%
6,0%
National water infrastructure
2,0
2,5
2,6
2,6
2,6
2,7
2,8
1,2%
0,5%
1,7%
5,6%
Local & regional water infrastructure
9,0
11,2
9,4
10,1
9,8
10,3
10,7
4,5%
1,8%
3,1%
2,9%
184,5
189,5
197,0
212,1
219,8
235,4
242,2
100,0%
5,6%
5,3%
4,6%
Commuter rail
Consolidated community developemnt
16
2017
Annual growth rates
POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
FIGURE A9 Annual average growth in expenditure on selected community development elements (2019–2023) Local equitable share
6.2% 5.9%
Household electrification 5.6%
Commuter rail Provincial roads maintence
5.2%
Consolidated community development
4.5%
Municipal infrastructure development
4.4% 4.0%
Regional bus services Local & regional water infrastructure
3.1%
National water infrastructure
1.7% 1.6%
Local public transport 1.1%
Community libraries
1.0%
National roads
0.8%
Housing: local
Average annual consumer price inflation (2019–2023)
-0.6%
Housing: provincial
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
TABLE A10 Economic development Estimated outcomes
Budget
Annual growth rates
R billions
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022
2023
Share
ST
MT
LT
Trade, industry and competitiveness
10,1
10,5
10,9
9,3
9,7
10,0
10,1
13,9%
-5,4%
-1,8%
-0,1%
Industrial incentives
5,6
5,6
5,9
4,9
4,9
5,0
5,2
7,2%
-9,2%
-3,3%
-1,3%
Industrial policy
2,0
2,1
2,2
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,0
2,7%
-6,7%
-3,2%
0,1%
Competition policy
0,7
0,8
0,7
0,7
0,9
0,9
0,9
1,1%
15,3%
8,4%
5,5%
Trade and investment
2021
Projections
0,7
0,8
0,8
0,7
0,7
0,8
0,8
1,0%
-3,8%
-1,8%
0,2%
15,2
16,6
16,9
15,2
16,9
17,2
17,4
23,2%
-0,1%
0,6%
2,3%
Food security
1,7
1,6
1,8
2,1
2,1
2,1
2,2
2,8%
8,3%
5,2%
4,2%
Land reform
0,9
0,9
1,0
0,8
1,0
1,0
1,0
1,3%
-3,0%
-1,6%
1,9%
Land reform: farmer support and extension
1,3
1,6
1,2
1,0
1,2
1,2
1,2
1,6%
-1,5%
-0,1%
-1,1%
Restitution
3,1
3,2
3,7
2,9
3,5
3,8
4,0
5,0%
-2,8%
1,7%
4,2%
Land administration
0,6
0,6
0,7
1,1
0,8
0,8
0,8
1,1%
4,2%
2,7%
3,8%
Agric. research
1,0
1,0
1,2
1,2
1,3
1,2
1,2
1,7%
2,4%
-0,7%
3,4%
Agric. production services
1,0
1,2
1,2
1,3
1,3
1,4
1,4
1,8%
4,9%
4,0%
6,3%
Agric. development and trade
1,1
1,2
0,9
0,7
0,9
0,9
1,0
1,2%
1,3%
2,7%
-1,7%
Public Works
5,5
5,9
6,5
6,6
7,2
7,4
7,4
9,7%
5,4%
3,5%
5,2%
Expanded public works pgm
2,4
2,5
2,6
2,5
3,0
3,0
3,1
3,9%
6,1%
3,8%
4,4%
Community work pgm
3,1
3,3
3,8
4,1
4,2
4,4
4,4
5,8%
4,9%
3,3%
5,8%
Communications and digital tech
5,7
4,8
5,7
3,3
3,7
2,4
2,4
4,8%
Dept of Labour
2,8
3,1
3,2
3,2
3,5
3,6
3,6
4,7%
4,4%
2,7%
3,9%
Environment, Forestry and Fisheries
7,9
8,0
8,7
9,9
8,7
8,9
8,9
12,5%
0,1%
0,7%
2,1%
Minerals and Energy
9,7
9,0
8,9
7,6
9,2
10,2
10,4
12,8%
1,5%
4,0%
1,2%
Science and Innovation
7,5
7,9
8,1
7,3
8,9
9,1
9,2
11,8%
5,1%
3,4%
3,5%
Small Business
1,5
1,4
2,2
2,3
2,5
2,6
2,6
3,4%
6,7%
3,6%
9,9%
Tourism
2,1
2,2
2,4
1,4
2,4
2,5
2,5
3,1%
0,9%
1,1%
2,6%
68,1
69,5
73,5
66,1
72,8
73,8
74,6
100,0%
-0,4%
0,4%
1,5%
Agriculture and land reform
Other national votes
Total
-19,3% -19,1% -13,2%
EXPENDITURE TRENDS 2021
17
FIGURE A10 Annual average growth in expenditure on selected economic development elements (2019–2023) Competition policy
8.4%
Food security
5.2%
Minerals and Energy
4.0%
Agric. production services
4.0%
Expanded public works pgm
3.8%
Small Business
3.6%
Science and Innovation
3.4%
Community work pgm
3.3%
Agric. development and trade
2.7%
Land administration
2.7%
Dept of Labour
2.7%
Restitution
1.7%
Tourism
1.1%
Environment, Forestry and Fisheries
0.7%
Land reform: farmer support
-0.1%
Agric. research
-0.7%
Land reform
-1.6%
Trade and investment
-1.8%
Industrial policy
-3.2%
Industrial incentives
-3,3%
-4%
18
-2%
POLICY BRIEF 01 | PUBLIC ECONOMY PROJECT
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%