Land Development Trends 2017-2018

LA ND D E V E LO PME NT T R EN D S AN AN ALYS IS OF LAN D S U PPLY AN D CON S U M PT ION

2017-2018

CONTENTS IN T RODUCTI ON. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................................................... 3 Growth context..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Definitions and data ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Availability of all vacant land........................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Current vacant land..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7

RESIDE N T IAL. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................................................... 11 Key findings........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Overview and summary statistics of residential sectors......................................................................................................................................................................13 Vacant lots by zone..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................14 Vacant lots by sector.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................15 Lots produced by location...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................16 Vacant lots sold by sector..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................17 Total volume of building permits by sector................................................................................................................................................................................................18 Completed house construction by sector...................................................................................................................................................................................................19 Volume residential building approvals........................................................................................................................................................................................................20 Volume and value of residential....................................................................................................................................................................................................................21

COMME RCIAL AN D IN D U ST R I A L.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................................................... 22 Key findings .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................23 Land area by zone..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................24 Commercial and industrial area by zone.....................................................................................................................................................................................................25 Central Wodonga ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Moloney Drive ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................27 Logic and West Wodonga..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................28 Anzac Parade and Baranduda Industrial Estate.................................................................................................................................................................................29 Volume and value of commercial..................................................................................................................................................................................................................30

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I N TROD UCTION Wodonga Council has a clear strategic land use vision as set out in the Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS): “A city which maintains a sufficient land supply which accommodates different lifestyle choices and the sustainable growth of the city�.

The Wodonga Growth Strategy, adopted by the council in 2016, seeks to provide land use direction in relation to the location and preferred form of growth within the city. The growth strategy builds on the objectives of the Wodonga Council Plan up to 2036 and beyond and focuses on two key themes - liveability and prosperity.

In response to the information contained in this document, the council will be able to make appropriate zoning, infrastructure and development decisions to ensure there is a sufficient supply and choice of vacant land into the future.

The Land Development Trends will also support decision-making for both current and potential developers in the city. Having up–to-date and accurately analysed data in relation to development rates and property markets will assist in determining where and how to stage development.

Liveability and prosperity have been chosen as the two key themes because the community has clearly recognised the positive relationship between them in guiding the growth of the city into the future.

Delivering the vision will require comprehensive forward planning, sustained investment in infrastructure and services and continuing focus on a sustainable economy. Maintaining Wodonga as a liveable city and maximising partnerships with government, industry, business and our community, will be critical.

In reflecting on the capacity of the city to achieve this aspiration, understanding how the city is growing and where and at what rate is critical.

The council needs to determine if sufficient land is available to meet market demand and to identify consumption and production trends impacting the city. The Land Development Trends provide updated information for the existing and future development of residential, commercial and industrial land throughout the city of Wodonga. The council has now been collecting data in relation to residential and commercial developments in the city for five years.

Land Development Trends 2017-2018

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G ROW T H CO N TE X T As one of the fastest-growing regional cities in Victoria, Wodonga is anticipated to reach a population of 54,728 by 2031 and has the capacity to support an ultimate population of 100,000 people. Enhancing the existing liveability and prosperity of the city as it grows and changes are the overarching ideals that represent the distinct identity of the city, and the important role that Wodonga plays as a service centre to the broader region.

The Wodonga Growth Strategy has the capacity to positively shape the future of Wodonga, unlock and co-ordinate development outcomes and assist in identification and delivery of key infrastructure priorities. In the context of Wodonga’s various growth fronts, the growth strategy provides direction and clarity across the various council functions and provides a strategic basis for decision-making regarding the provision of key infrastructure.

Wodonga Council is committed to maintaining a steady supply of quality and affordable land to ensure a high quality of life for residents and to support the economic development of the city. It is understood that Wodonga Council has inherited a legacy of past involvement and influence of the Albury Wodonga Development Corporation (AWDC). While many of the initiatives of the AWDC were positive in terms of influence on the structure of the city, the impacts of divestment are significant.

Following divestment of the former AWDC land, the city is now managing multiple active development fronts (Refer to Wodonga Growth Strategy for details) and dealing with the implications of the transition of historical delivery and pricing of land supply by the AWDC to current delivery and pricing of land supply by the private sector.

The Land Development Trends reflects the impact of this and provides a tool to continue to measure this legacy.

In terms of strategic initiatives that have the capacity to shape the city and to respond to the vision set out in the MSS, the council has adopted a proactive approach with respect to managing the development fronts by developing a whole of city growth strategy and planning for significant longterm growth in the Leneva-Baranduda growth corridor.

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DE F I N I T I O N S A N D DATA •

Vacant lot: All the land which is subdivided for the use of residential, industrial and commercial purposes and suitable for development but with no permanent structures or any significant use.

•

Lot produced: A lot is created or produced when land has been subdivided (constructed) with a separate title for the use of residential, industrial and commercial purposes and suitable for development.

•

Lot consumed: A vacant lot for which a building approval have been issued by the relevant authority.

•

Residential sectors: Developed and developing residential precincts identified based on their geographical locations.

•

Vacant lot sales: The sales of all the vacant lots which is subdivided for the use of residential, industrial and commercial purposes.

•

Residential use: All the land zoned Activity Centre (ACZ), General Residential (GRZ), Low Density Residential (LDRZ), Rural Living (RLZ), Township (TZ) and Mixed Use (MUZ) and subdivided for the use of residential purpose.

•

Non-residential use: All the land zoned Industrial 1 (IN1Z), Commercial 1 (C1Z), and Commercial 2 (C2Z), and subdivided for the use of nonresidential purposes.

•

Dwelling occupancy: Vacant lot being occupied by a building occupancy certificate by the relevant authority.

•

Building permit: An official certificate of permission issued by local authorities to a builder to construct, enlarge or alter a building.

Data source – All maps, charts and tables in this report have been prepared by Walker Geospatial and Data Analysis. The base data for the maps, charts and tables originates from Wodonga Council’s Pathway database and Geographic Information System (GIS) database. The data was analysed, relevant information extracted and merged between the two databases and presented.

Data analysis – This report has used a combination of statistical analysis and spatial analysis to reveal trends in land development activity on a location basis, to assist council and developers of where, and to what extent, activity is present, or the likelihood of future activity.

Data accuracy – Spatial and statistical data can contain inconsistencies or other anomalies due to the integrity of the base data. Data has been cross-referenced using aerial imagery and multiple data sets (where available) in order to minimise any statistical and geographic errors. As with all data analysis, there is always the possibility of inherent or operational errors. Efforts have been made to ensure consistency of data analysis in this report, however there are some known discrepancies between this and the previous reports due to external factors.

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AVA I L A B I L I T Y OF A L L VACAN T LAN D Availability of all Vacant Land 1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

2017-2018

Vacant Lots Sold (all types) Vacant Lots Created (all types) Vacant Lots at Financial Year Start (all types)

Land Development Trends 2017-2018

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CU R R ENT VACA NT L A ND AS AT J ULY 1 , 2 0 1 8

Land Development Trends 2017-2018

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CU R R ENT VACA NT L A ND AS AT J ULY 1 , 2 0 1 8

Land Development Trends 2017-2018

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CU R R ENT VACA NT L A ND AS AT J ULY 1 , 2 0 1 8

Land Development Trends 2017-2018

9

CU R R E NT VACA NT L A ND AS AT J ULY 1 , 2 0 1 8

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RE S ID E NTIA L

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RE S I DE NT I A L K E Y F I ND IN GS •

As of July 1, 2018 there were approximately 850 vacant residential lots in Wodonga, an increase from 600 lots the previous year. This includes land zoned general residential, as well as mixed use, rural living, township and low density zoned land. The supply of vacant lots is widely dispersed across the city with the largest supply being located within east and south Wodonga.

•

There is a widespread distribution of lot/dwelling potential for each of the Wodonga sectors. In terms of land supply, the amount of zoned residential land, based on population projection, is between 32 and 36 years land supply available (Wodonga Growth Strategy, 2016). There is an additional 42 to 47 years of land supply if the strategic land identified in the Leneva-Baranduda growth area is included.

•

591 new vacant lots were produced in the city during 2017-2018. This represents a steady increase of lots created for the four years (20132014 to 2016-2017) prior of between 236 and 372 lots.

•

•

In 2017-2018 the majority of vacant lots produced in the city were located at east sector (151 lots), south sector (124 lots), and central south sector (116 lots).

The vast majority of dwellings (96 per cent) are separate houses and semidetached houses, the remainder medium density style dwellings (units, apartments and other dwelling types) (Source: Wodonga Housing Strategy 2018). Residential lot construction across the municipality is relatively reliant on larger broad hectare style developments. Minor infill development is relatively small in terms of its contribution to lot creation.

•

524 lots were consumed in Wodonga during 2017-2018. This represents a resurgence of lot consumption compared to the four years prior (2013-2014 to 2016-2017), with 735, 583, 458 and 390 lots consumed respectively.

•

Six of the 14 residential sectors recorded more than 100 new dwellings over the 2013 to 2018 financial year periods.

•

Between 2013 and 2018 the average vacant lot sale across all residential land sales was $133,502, this represents a steady increase of 2 per cent over the past five years.

•

One-third (29.2 per cent) of all lots consumed for the 2013 to 2018 period were located in the central south sector, and one-fifth (19.2 per cent) attributed to those in the east sector. Nearly 50 per cent of all lots consumed in Wodonga during this period were between the two sectors.

•

388 dwellings were completed in Wodonga in 2017-2018. Dwelling completion was highest in 2015-2016 (421 dwellings) and lowest in 20132014 (298 dwellings), with an average of 376 dwellings during the four year period prior to 2017-2018.

•

As with lot production, the consumption of lots is spread across a number of multiple development fronts around the city. The majority of lots consumed in 2017-2018 were located in central south sector (113 lots) and east sector (82 lots), and outer west sector (65 lots).

•

Projected dwelling requirements for Wodonga from 2011 to 2031 using the state government’s VIF forecast (Victoria in Future 2016) is 7300 (365 average per annum). Similarly council’s ID Forecast projections from 2011 to 2031 forecast that there will be a total dwelling requirement of 6625 (331 average per annum). Therefore between 330 and 370 new dwellings will be required every year for the next 20 years to meet requirements of the future projected population.

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OVE RV I E W A N D S UM M A RY OF STAT I ST I C S OF RESID EN TIAL SECTORS

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VACA NT LOTS BY ZON E

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VACA NT LOTS BY S ECTOR

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LOTS PRODU C E D BY LOCATION

Residential lots produced during financial years 2013 - 2018 Lots produced 0 - 19 20 - 99 100 - 199 200 - 299 300 - 499 500 + Other lots produced LGA boundary

0

SECTOR

Lots

Central Central East Central South Central South West Central West East Inner North North West Outer South East Outer South West Outer West South South West West

61 12 514 3 0 412 2 1 206 1 199 231 66 2

1

2

3

4 km

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VACA NT LOTS SOL D BY SECTOR

Vacant lots sold during financial years 2013 - 2018 Number of lots sold 0-9 10 - 39 40 - 99 100 - 199 200 - 399 400 - 599 LGA boundary SECTOR Lots Sold Central 18 Central East 38 Central South 589 Central South West 77 Central West 1 East 444 Inner North 0 North West 2 Outer South East 183 Outer South West 30 Outer West 246 South 358 South West 90 West 2 0

1

2

3

4 km

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TOTA L VOLU M E OF B U I L DI NG PE RMITS BY SECTOR

Volume of building permits (new house construction) during financial years 2013 - 2018 Number of permits < 50 50 - 99 100 - 199 200 - 299 300 - 499 500 + LGA boundary SECTOR Volume Central 200 Central East 110 Central South 619 Central South West 77 Central West 91 East 407 Inner North 9 North West 81 Outer South East 203 Outer South West 86 Outer West 294 South 244 South West 59 West 84 0

1

2

3

4 km

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COM P L E T E D H OU S E CONSTRU CT I ON BY SECTOR (OCCUPAN CY)

Completed housing construction (occupancy) during financial years 2013 - 2018 Occupancy permits < 20 20 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 199 200 - 399 400 + LGA boundary SECTOR Occupancy Central 132 Central East 69 Central South 587 Central South West 47 Central West 9 East 392 Inner North 7 North West 15 Outer South East 138 Outer South West 21 Outer West 235 South 213 South West 37 West 11 0

1

2

3

4 km

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VO LU M E RE S I DE NT I A L B U I L DI NG AP P ROVALS ( NE W DW E L L I NGS ) BY SECTOR TOTAL VOLUME BUILDING APPROVALS BY SECTOR

FINANCIAL YEAR

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

2017-2018

GRAND TOTAL

% OF TOTAL

128

144

125

109

113

619

23.0%

East

70

86

88

81

82

407

15.1%

Outer west

77

60

39

53

65

294

10.9%

South

55

64

48

34

43

244

9.1%

Outer south east

51

39

41

26

46

203

7.5%

Central

67

40

35

32

26

200

7.4%

Unallocated

16

24

23

27

36

126

4.7%

Central east

56

29

14

4

7

110

4.1%

Central west

53

18

9

2

9

91

3.4%

Outer south west

34

16

7

5

24

86

3.2%

West

39

16

4

3

22

84

3.1%

North west

40

14

9

3

15

81

3.0%

Central south west

29

24

10

6

8

77

2.9%

South west

15

7

5

5

27

59

2.2%

Inner north

5

2

1

1

9

0.3%

Grand total

735

583

458

524

2690

100.0%

SECTOR Central south

390

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VO LU M E O F R E SI DE NT I A L BU I L D I N G A P PROVA LS ( N E W D W E L LI NGS)

VALUE OF RESID EN TIAL CON STRUCTION (N EW D WELLIN GS)

Volume of Residential Building Approvals (new dwellings)

Total Value of Residential Construction (new dwellings) $200,000,000

800

$180,000,000 700 $160,000,000 600 $140,000,000

500

$120,000,000

$100,000,000

400

$80,000,000 300 $60,000,000 200 $40,000,000 100

$20,000,000

0

$0 2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

2017-2018

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

2017-2018

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COMM E RCIAL AN D I ND UST RI AL

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COMM E RCIAL AN D IN DUSTR IAL K EY F I NDI NG S •

The number of commercial and industrial building permits issued has held relatively steady over the past five years. There appears to be a steady decline in the value of estimated building costs since the 2014-2015 period.

•

70.8 per cent of all commercial and industrial building permits issued relate to new commercial works, with 18.4 per cent attributed to commercial alterations and 10.8 per cent attributed to industrial developments.

•

The value of the new commercial developments represented 90 per cent of the total value of commercial and industrial developments in 20172018. The value of new commercial developments contributes 93.3 per cent of the total value invested over the financial year periods 20132018.

•

The availability of vacant commercial and industrial land remained relatively steady over the 2013 to 2018 financial year periods, with only slight decreases in both commercial and industrial vacant land classes and a negligible increase in development use vacant land.

•

Commercial and industrial lots created has remained stable over the 2013 to 2018 financial year periods.

•

Industrial land sales remain stable, with eight lots sold in 2016-2017 (usually less than two sales per year for commercial land).

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COM M E RCI A L A ND I NDU STRI A L L AN D AREA BY ZON E PROPORTION OF COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LAND BY ZONE

The vast majority of commercial and industrial land in Wodonga is zoned Industrial 1.

Industrial 1 zone provides for the manufacturing industry, storage and distribution of goods and associated uses.

Industrial 2 zone provides for the manufacturing industry, storage and distribution of goods and associated facilities in a manner which does not affect the safety and amenity of local communities.

Commercial 1 zone promotes vibrant mixed use commercial centres for retail, office, business, entertainment and community uses, as well as residential uses at densities complementary to the role and scale of the commercial centre.

Commercial 2 zone seeks to develop commercial areas for offices and appropriate manufacturing and industrial and limited retail uses that do not affect the safety and amenity of adjacent, more sensitive uses.

Mixed use zone enables a range of residential, commercial, industrial and other uses which complement the mixed use function of the locality, providing housing at higher densities which responds to the existing character of an area.

Industrial 1 zone - 1096.3 hectares Mixed use zone - 101.5 hectares

Activity centre zone encourages a mixture of uses and the intensive development of the activity centre.

Commercial 2 zone - 92.4 hectares Activity centre zone - 61.8 hectares

Definitions from Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure.

Commercial 1 zone - 13.3 hectares Industrial 2 zone - 3.7 hectares

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COM M E RC IA L A ND I NDU STRI A L L AN D AREA BY ZON E

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COM M E RC I A L A ND I NDU ST RI AL LAN D AREA LOGI C A ND W E ST WOD ON GA

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COM M E RC I A L A ND I NDU ST RI AL LAN D AREA C E N T RA L WODONGA A ND MOLON EY D RIVE

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COM ME RC I A L A ND I NDU ST RI AL LAN D AREA ANZ AC PA R A D E P REC I NCT A ND BA RA NDUDA IN D USTRIAL ESTATE

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VO LU M E O F COM M E RC I A L A N D I N D U STRI A L NUMBER OF COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED

VALUE OF COMMERCIAL AN D IN D USTRIAL ACCRUED VALUE OF COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED

Number of Commercial / Industrial Building Permits Issued

Accrued Value of Commercial / Industrial Building Permits Issued

$70,000,000

80

70

$60,000,000

60

$50,000,000

50

$40,000,000 40

$30,000,000 30

$20,000,000 20

$10,000,000

10

$0

0 2013-2014

2014-2015

Commercial (Alterations)

2015-2016 Commercial (New)

2016-2017 Industrial

2017-2018 Grand Total

2013-2014

2014-2015

Commercial (Alterations)

2015-2016

Commercial (New)

2016-2017 Industrial

2017-2018 Grand Total

Land Development Trends 2017-2018

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CONTACT WODONGA COUNCIL 104 Hovell St, Wodonga, VIC 3690 Phone: (02) 6022 9300 Email: info@wodonga.vic.gov.au

CONNECT WITH COUNCIL facebook.com/wodongacouncil instagram.com/wodongacouncil twitter.com/wodongacouncil youtube.com/wodongacouncil wod.city/wod-enews

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