14 | U . S . E n g a g e m e n t i n L i b y a Lack of progress on security sector reform
build stability and improve daily life for some
allows those profiting from the status quo to
Libyans. In the long term, however, local
continue to act as spoilers. An empowered,
arrangements will need to be incorporated
unitary Libyan government would exercise a
into a consistent legal framework governing
near monopoly on the use of force within its
the roles of central and municipal authorities.
territory, but this ideal remains unattainable. It
Without a central authority to protect key
has remained stubbornly difficult to make
national
progress on the security front without
fragmentation, competition and violence will
concomitant progress on the political and
remain entrenched.
institutions,
incentives
economic tracks. Municipalities and other local actors may offer
Anticipating the Unexpected
opportunities for real progress in the short-term,
ISIS reemerges as a serious threat
but such efforts also risk exacerbating Libya’s
While ISIS is unlikely to govern swaths of land in Libya in the near future, there is a risk that the group will reemerge in the mostly ungoverned south of Libya and carry out attacks against vulnerable oil fields and pipelines in the Sirte Basin, or the Man-Made River (GMR) that is a strategic lifeline for Libya. ISIS may also use Libya as a base to escalate highprofile, ‘shock-and-awe’ attacks in North Africa and in Europe. The United States would need to act quickly to prevent ISIS from destabilizing broader political dynamics in Libya, including through military action.
fragmentation and empowering militia groups. In the absence of progress at the national level, many Libyan actors, international organizations, and donors are focusing on making local gains in governance and security. In
some
areas,
agreements
between
community militias and municipal authorities support
service
provision
and
localized
security arrangements; some municipalities are levying their own taxes, going beyond their legally-mandated role. Despite the reality that local
institution-building
substitute
for
cannot
national-level
be
a
political
compromise, functional municipalities that provide key services could help reduce the kinds of frustrations and governance vacuums that ISIS so skillfully exploits (see insert); in the short term, these localized solutions help
for
