28 | U . S . E n g a g e m e n t i n L i b y a accept the distribution of revenues through
eastern CBL officials through diplomatic
the Bank’s Tripoli headquarters.viii The United
pressure and an international spotlight.
States is a key international backer of the
Renewed diplomatic pressure on the eastern
World Bank-led process that is attempting to
bank’s backers — Egypt, in particular — to
forge both working-level integration of the
induce
bank branches as well as a top-level
reunification talks will be key (see insert). If
reunification between Sadiq al-Kabir, the head
possible, international financial incentives
of the western CBL, and his counterpart, Ali al-
should be conditioned on further progress
Hibri, in the east. There have been signs of
towards increased contact and reunification.
constructive
engagement
on
slow progress on both fronts; knowledgeable officials
state
that
operational
contacts
between the two continue to progress and were never fully severed. In August 2018, al-Kabir met al-Hibri for the first time since 2014 to discuss reunification efforts. Despite mutual acknowledgement that some level of reunification is necessary and desirable, the eastern branch’s significant debt burden remains a key stumbling block in the talks; the west is reluctant to take on liabilities its officials view as having been intended to subvert their authority.
Anticipating the Unexpected An external actor intervenes militarily to tip the balance
Russia, Egypt, and other external actors have critical interests in Libya which they may unexpectedly act to protect by deploying military force in support of an actor such as Haftar. With enough external military force behind him, a Haftar-led push to take Tripoli could lead to a new military dictatorship, but only after a country-wide bloodbath dwarfing that seen in 2014. In the event of an external military intervention, the United States should act swiftly to halt Haftar’s advance via sanctions and international pressure.
The United States’ success in thwarting the eastern CBL’s June gambit suggests that the United States has a crucial role to play in
top-level reunification. At the top level, the
2.iv: Expand sanctions to challenge activities that undermine central institutions, particularly the NOC’s unitary control of oil revenues. Efforts by political and security actors to
United States should maintain the momentum
interfere with the operations of central
of renewed contacts between western and
institutions — particularly those involved with
continuing to support both working-level efforts at integration and, more importantly,
