Global Productivity

Page 101

GLOBAL PRODUCTIVITY

CHAPTER 1

75

reflect average rates of growth and persistent effects from initial conditions, such as longrun trends. The effects of all other shocks are included in the nontechnology category. The estimation used for the historical decomposition includes labor productivity in growth rates. This is because the effects of initial conditions can be substantial in unitroot or highly persistent processes such as labor productivity levels. In the estimation on growth rates, the change in the contribution of the initial condition over time is minimal given the stationary nature of productivity growth.

References Abate, G. D., and L. Serven. 2019. “Adding Space to the International Business Cycle.” Policy Research Working Paper 8786, World Bank, Washington, DC. ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2017. Asian Development Outlook: Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge. Manila: Asian Development Bank. Adler, G., R. Duval, D. Furceri, S. Kilic Celik, K. Koloskova, and M. Poplawski-Ribeiro. 2017. “Gone with the Headwinds: Global Productivity.” IMF Staff Discussion Note 17/04, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Andrews, D., C. Criscuolo, and P. Gal. 2015. “Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Angeletos, G.-M., F. Collard, and H. Dellas. 2018. “Business Cycle Anatomy.” NBER Working Paper 24875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Anzoategui, D., D. Comin, M. Gertler, and J. Martinez. 2019. “Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11 (3): 67–110. Arteta, C., and S. Kasyanenko. 2019. “Financial Market Developments.” In A Decade after the Global Recession: Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies, edited by M. A. Kose and F. Ohnsorge. Washington, DC: World Bank. Aslam, A., S. Beidas-Strom, R. Bems, O. Celasun, S. Kilic Celik, and Z. Koczan. 2016. “Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom.” IMF Working Paper 16/27, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Baqaee, D., and E. Farhi. 2018. “The Microeconomic Foundations of Aggregate Production Functions.” NBER Working Paper 2593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Barro R., and J. Lee. 2015. Education Matters: Global Schooling Gains from the 19th to the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press. Basu, S., J. G. Fernald, and M. S. Kimball. 2006. “Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?” American Economic Review 96 (5): 1418–48. Bosworth, B., and S. M. Collins. 2008. “Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22 (1): 45–66. Brynjolfsson, E., and A. Collis. 2019. “How Should We Measure the Digital Economy?” Harvard Business Review 97(6): 140–48.


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Annex 7B Marginal productivity gap

4min
pages 452-453

References

14min
pages 456-463

Annex 7A Data and methodology

6min
pages 448-451

References

13min
pages 421-428

Sectoral productivity gaps

2min
page 432

Annex 7C Firm TFP data, estimates, and methodology

5min
pages 454-455

Annex 6C Commodity-driven productivity developments: Methodology

2min
page 420

Conclusion and policy implications

2min
page 412

Drivers of productivity: Technology vs. demand shocks

2min
page 391

Annex 6A SVAR identification of technology drivers of productivity

8min
pages 413-416

PART III Technological Change and Sectoral Shifts

0
pages 383-386

Effects of demand shocks

2min
page 397

Figure 6.1 Global labor productivity surges and declines

7min
pages 388-390

Sub-Saharan Africa

2min
page 350

Figure 5.22 Factors supporting productivity growth in MNA

7min
pages 333-335

Figure 5.19 Drivers of productivity growth in LAC

9min
pages 325-328

South Asia

4min
pages 337-338

Conclusion

2min
page 363

Figure 5.13 Drivers of productivity growth in ECA

10min
pages 314-317

Middle East and North Africa

2min
page 329

Latin America and the Caribbean

2min
page 318

Figure 5.12 Drivers of productivity growth in ECA in regional comparison

5min
pages 312-313

Europe and Central Asia

2min
page 305

Figure 5.7 Drivers of productivity growth in EAP

3min
page 301

PART II Regional Dimensions of Productivity

0
pages 281-284

Sources of, and bottlenecks to, regional productivity growth

4min
pages 290-291

Figure 5.1 Evolution of regional productivity in EMDE regions

4min
pages 288-289

East Asia and Pacific

2min
page 295

References

12min
pages 274-280

Evolution of productivity across regions

2min
page 287

Annex 4F Productivity measurement: PPP vs. market exchange rates

4min
pages 268-269

Annex 4C Beta-convergence testing

2min
page 257

Figure 4.4 Convergence club memberships

2min
page 242

Annex 4D Estimating convergence clubs: Commonalities in productivity levels

7min
pages 258-260

Testing for convergence and its pace

4min
pages 236-237

Conclusion and policy implications

7min
pages 253-255

Convergence clubs

7min
pages 239-241

Annex 3B Robustness

2min
page 213

Conclusion

2min
page 204

Figure 3.8 Episodes across different types of events

4min
pages 193-194

Annex 3A Data, sources, and definitions

2min
page 206

How has productivity convergence evolved?

2min
page 231

Figure 3.4 Episodes of war

2min
page 187

What policies can mitigate the effects of adverse events?

2min
page 203

Figure 3.5 Correlations between war frequency and productivity growth

7min
pages 188-190

Figure B3.1.1 Severity of pandemics, epidemics, and climate disasters

6min
pages 179-181

Figure B3.1.3 Impact of epidemics

6min
pages 184-186

Annex 2A Partial correlations

2min
page 146

Figure 3.2 Episodes of natural disaster

4min
pages 175-176

Box 3.1 How do epidemics affect productivity?

1min
page 178

Adverse events: Literature and stylized facts

2min
page 171

Conclusion

2min
page 145

Figure 2.13 Developments in financial and government technology

2min
page 143

Figure 2.12 EMDE infrastructure and education gaps

2min
page 142

Policy priorities

4min
pages 140-141

Figure 2.11 Post-GFC slowdown of the drivers of productivity growth

10min
pages 136-139

References

12min
pages 101-108

Analyzing the effects of drivers

1min
page 128

Developments in drivers of productivity

2min
page 134

Figure 2.1 Innovation

5min
pages 114-115

Box 2.1 Review of recent firm-level total factor productivity literature

8min
pages 130-133

Summary of stylized facts

2min
page 126

Long-run drivers

4min
pages 112-113

Box 1.1 Productivity: Conceptual considerations and measurement challenges

9min
pages 85-88

Conclusion

2min
page 96

Annex 1A Cyclical and technology-driven labor productivity developments

1min
page 100

Figure B1.1.1 Labor productivity decomposition and natural capital in EMDEs

7min
pages 89-91

References

13min
pages 65-70

Key findings and policy messages

4min
pages 32-33

Future research directions

2min
page 64

Synopsis

2min
page 39

PART I Productivity: Trends and Explanations

0
pages 71-74

Evolution of productivity

2min
page 78

Sources of the slowdown in labor productivity growth after the GFC

2min
page 83

Implications of COVID-19 for productivity

11min
pages 34-38
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