GLOBAL PRODUCTIVITY
INTRODUCTION
39
differentials in limiting the adoption of these technologies in EMDEs. In addition, future research should examine the extent to which jobs in the service sector, which have increasingly driven EMDE productivity growth and job creation, are at risk. Underlying drivers of sectoral reallocation. Chapter 7 employs a detailed shift-share approach that decomposes aggregate labor productivity growth into within- and between-sector components. However, this approach does not fully account for the endogeneity of sectoral allocation. For example, within-sector growth could also directly affect sector reallocation—an improvement in agricultural productivity could reduce agriculture’s share of employment and facilitate between-sector productivity growth, and hence the contribution of the agricultural productivity could be larger and that of sectoral reallocation could be smaller. Further research using the nine-sector database could take into account endogeneity and provide greater insights into which underlying forces are driving sectoral contributions to productivity growth and convergence.
References Acevedo, S. M., M. Mrkaic, N. Novta, E. Pugacheva, and P. Topalova. 2018. “The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What Are the Channels of Impact?” IMF Working Paper 18/144, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2017. Asian Development Outlook: Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge. Manila: Asian Development Bank. Adler, G., R. Duval, D. Furceri, S. Kilic Celik, K. Koloskova, and M. Poplawski-Ribeiro. 2017. “Gone with the Headwinds: Global Productivity.” IMF Staff Discussion Note 17/04, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Aslam, A., S. Beidas-Strom, R. Bems, O. Celasun, S. Kilic Celik, and Z. Koczan. 2016. “Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom.” IMF Working Paper 16/27, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Bachmann, R., and E. R. Sims. 2012. “Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics 59 (3): 235–49. Baker, S. R., N. Bloom, S. J. Davis, and S. J. Terry. 2020. “Covid-Induced Economic Uncertainty.” NBER Working Paper 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Barrero, J. M., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis. 2020. “COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock.” SSRN Electronic Journal. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3592953. Barro, R. J. 2015. “Convergence and Modernisation.” Economic Journal 125 (585): 911–42. Basu, S., J. G. Fernald, and M. S. Kimball. 2006. “Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?” American Economic Review 96 (5): 1418–48. Bartkowska, M., and A. Riedl. 2012. “Regional Convergence Clubs in Europe: Identification and Conditioning Factors.” Economic Modelling 29 (1): 22–31. Battisti, M., and C. F. Parmeter. 2013. “Clustering and Polarization in the Distribution of Output: A Multivariate Perspective.” Journal of Macroeconomics 35 (March): 144–62.