The Long Shadow of Informality

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L O NG S HA D O W O F I N F O R MA L I T Y

C H A P T ER 5

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points (Fernández and Villar 2016). A reduction and simplification of business taxes in Brazil in 1996 was associated with a significant increase in the incidence of formal firms, and the newly formal firms achieved higher revenue and profits than those operating informally (Fajnzylber, Maloney, and Montes-Rojas 2011). The impact of Brazil’s reform on informality varied across economic sectors, however, because of differences in incentives to become formal (Monteiro and Assuncão 2012). Labor market regulations. Tighter enforcement of labor regulations has been effective in reducing informality in the region, through various mechanisms. In Brazil, tighter enforcement of regulations raised wages and output by improving the allocation of workers between the formal and informal sectors (Meghir, Narita, and Robin 2015). More frequent inspections in Brazil also induced some informal workers to become formal (Almeida and Carneiro 2012). Moreover, inspections have been found to be more effective than incentives in convincing firms in Brazil to operate in the formal sector (de Andrade, Bruhn, and McKenzie 2013). Other regulations. Policy reforms to ease barriers to entering the formal sector have had mixed results. A reform that simplified the process of opening a business in Mexico was successful in increasing the number of registered businesses, but had no impact on informality: the owners of the new businesses were former employees of formal firms, not informal workers (Bruhn 2011; Kaplan, Piedra, and Seira 2011). Financial deepening contributed to a reduction in informality in Uruguay, particularly for women and older workers (Gandelman and Rasteletti 2016). COVID-19 response. The provision of income support to informal workers during the COVID-19 pandemic has been challenging. In some cases, existing programs have been successfully scaled up, particularly for the lowest-income informal workers. But even where informal workers have been reached, there have been challenges related to coverage (Busso et al. 2020). One lesson is that the provision of social safety nets needs to be more agile, with low barriers to enrollment and provisions for rapid rollout (Arnold, Garda, and Gonzalez-Pandiella 2020).

Middle East and North Africa On average, MNA has the lowest output and employment informality among all EMDE regions. There is particularly wide divergence within the region, however, consistent with the wide range of per capita incomes across MNA economies (figure 5.10). Output informality in oil importers and in oil exporters that are not members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is well above that in GCC countries, reflecting a sizable presence of agriculture sectors in some countries, as well as histories in some cases of prolonged armed conflict with associated migration, and high reliance on public sector employment. Informal activity in these economies absorbs a large proportion of the region’s high numbers of unemployed youth. By contrast, employment informality in GCC countries is very low, averaging 3 percent of total employment in 2010-18. This is broadly in line with the high per capita incomes of GCC countries.


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Articles inside

References

17min
pages 344-353

Annex 6A Policies and informality

3min
pages 323-324

Fiscal measures

2min
page 301

Data and methodology

2min
page 300

6.1 Financial development and the informal economy

9min
pages 290-294

6.8 Informality after labor market reforms in EMDEs

2min
page 313

Conclusion

2min
page 271

References

20min
pages 272-284

Conclusion

2min
page 319

Latin America and the Caribbean

2min
page 251

South Asia

2min
page 260

Sub-Saharan Africa

4min
pages 264-265

Middle East and North Africa

2min
page 255

Europe and Central Asia

2min
page 246

East Asia and Pacific

2min
page 241

Informality in EMDEs

2min
page 237

References

24min
pages 222-234

4D.7 Regression: Changes in informality and poverty reduction

2min
page 208

competition

2min
page 206

4D.8 Regression: Changes in informality and improvement in income inequality

1min
page 209

4D.14 Regression: Developmental challenges and DGE-based output informality in EMDEs

5min
pages 216-218

Annex 4C Bayesian model averaging approach

4min
pages 200-201

4D.4 Regression: Labor productivity of formal and informal firms 4D.5 Regression: Labor productivity of formal firms facing informal

1min
page 205

Annex 4B Regression analysis

2min
page 199

Annex 4A Meta-regression analysis

2min
page 198

Informality and SDGs related to human development

2min
page 191

Informality and SDGs related to infrastructure

2min
page 193

4.3 Informality, poverty, and income inequality

5min
pages 180-182

Informality and institutions

2min
page 189

Finding the needle in the haystack: The most robust correlates

2min
page 195

Conclusion

1min
page 197

Informality and economic correlates

2min
page 179

4.2 Casting a shadow: Productivity in formal and informal firms

4min
pages 167-168

Links between informality and development challenges

2min
page 165

4.1 Informality and wage inequality

8min
pages 158-161

References

6min
pages 147-152

Conclusion

2min
page 136

Data and methodology

2min
page 129

Literature review: Linkages between formal and informal sectors

6min
pages 126-128

References

13min
pages 115-122

2B.9 World Values Survey

1min
page 114

2B.8 MIMIC model estimation results, 1993-2018

1min
page 113

Future research directions

2min
page 54

Database of informality measures

14min
pages 81-86

References

10min
pages 55-62

Key findings and policy messages

6min
pages 36-38

Definition of informality

4min
pages 79-80

Conclusion

2min
page 99

Annex 2A Estimation methodologies

9min
pages 100-103

16 Informality indicators and entrepreneurial conditions in Sub-Saharan

2min
page 35
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