Ev o lvi n g Co m par at ive Advantages and the Impac ts of E xtr em e Weat he r Eve nt s
• Facilitating access to new technologies for farmers in low- and middle-income countries through expedited seed release procedures and easier movement of agricultural specialists who can share their knowledge on appropriate farming techniques in a climate-constrained world • Renewing efforts to reduce barriers to agricultural trade (tariffs, nontariff barriers, domestic support, export restrictions), in both high-income and low- and middleincome countries, to increase (1) the size and stability of the global market for food products and (2) the opportunities for farmers in low- and middle-income countries to adapt to climate change and transition to new, more climate-resilient crops and products • Enhancing discipline at the global level on the use of measures such as export restrictions. The increasing importance of trade, especially in agricultural products, entails greater risks for countries if access to imports of food is curtailed. Thus, a global deal seems within reach—one in which importing countries commit to reducing tariffs and other barriers (to expand the export market for producing firms), while exporting countries commit to using export control measures sparingly. Opening up to trade entails adjustment costs for countries facing greater competition and needing to capture new, trade-related opportunities. These opportunities have typically received, at best, limited attention from policy makers. Perhaps with a focus on agriculture, an opportunity arises to take a broader approach and address the combined adjustments to trade and climate change.
Notes 1. The ND-GAIN Country Index summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience. 2. Environmentally preferrable products are discussed in more detail in chapter 4 of this report. 3. The World Bank’s flagship report on climate migration finds that—in Latin America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa—climate change will push millions of people to migrate within their own country by 2050 (Rigaud et al. 2018). 4. Trade is deemed a more efficient mechanism for stabilizing prices than domestic holdings of food stocks. 5. Models of global food demand and supply reinforce these conclusions. Export restrictions and precautionary purchases by a few large producing countries create rapid increases in global food prices and severe local food shortages. For example, if three major grain- exporting countries imposed full export bans, the price of wheat could rise by as much as 70 percent, while maize and rice prices could rise by 40 percent and 60 percent, respectively (Falkendal et al. 2021). 6. The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) was created in 2011; under it, (a) G-20 governments would instruct their statistical and other relevant agencies to provide timely and accurate data on food production, consumption, and stocks and to invest in necessary mechanisms and institutions if they did not exist; (b) international organizations would enhance global food security by monitoring, reporting, and analyzing market conditions and policies and by introducing a global early warning system; (c) a rapid response forum would promote policy coherence and coordination during crisis periods; and
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