DISCUSSION PAPER
Abstract Social benefits can potentially play an important role in protecting the poor and minimizing the impacts of an economic crisis. While many studies estimate the impacts of a crisis, there is little evidence of the actual response of social safety nets to systematic shocks. This study traces the response of social benefits during the 2008–10 global crisis for 14 countries in ECA. The study first sets out a framework for defining the “expected” response of social benefits covering an assessment of pre-crisis preparedness of social benefits and the severity of the crisis for all countries in the ECA region to provide the context; and then develops a typology of all countries categorized by expected response. Using this typology the study analyzes the monthly administrative data on the observed patterns within social benefit programs. Main findings indicate that actual responses were largely in line with expectations. Precrisis preparedness clearly influenced the ability of social benefits to respond to the crisis. Unemployment benefits were generally the first line of response in countries that have them, while social assistance programs also expanded coverage during the crisis. Lessons learned from the 2008-2010 global crisis (such as the importance of structural reform, design, and implementation which affect the success of social benefits programs in crisis response) are also presented. The study concludes with some policy recommendations to help ECA countries prepare for future crises.
NO. 1219
Do Social Benefits Respond to Crises? Evidence from Europe & Central Asia During the Global Crisis
Aylin Isik-Dikmelik
About this series... Social Protection & Labor Discussion Papers are published to communicate the results of The World Bank’s work to the development community with the least possible delay. The typescript manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The author(s) attest(s) that the paper represents original work. It fully references and describes all relevant prior work on the same subject. For more information, please contact the Social Protection Advisory Service, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Room G7-803, Washington, DC 20433 USA. Telephone: (202) 458-5267, Fax: (202) 614-0471, E-mail: socialprotection@worldbank.org or visit us on-line at www.worldbank.org/sp. Printed on recycled paper
November 2012