Our Community

Who are we planning for? In a growing community like Tracy, it is necessary to understand the makeup of the population and how the demographics are changing to anticipate and plan for the potential impact. To that end, we conducted a demographic analysis that reflects the total population and its key characteristics— age, income, race, and ethnicity. Future projections are all based on historical patterns. A description of the methodology, definitions, and full analysis is included in Appendix A.

Figure 2-1

City of Tracy and Environs

To Altamont Pass and the Bay Area

I-205

TRACY, CA

I-580

To Los Angeles To Manteca, Stockton, Modesto, Sacramento, and the Sierras

I-5

The City’s population has experienced a growing trend in recent years and is estimated at 89,965 individuals in 2018 (US Census, American Community Survey). Projecting ahead, the total population is expected to continue to grow over the next 15 years. By 2033, the City is expected to have 106,509 residents (Environmental Systems Research Institute, 2019). By 2040, the City projects a population of 141,341.

A DIVERSE CITY

AGE

Looking at the population by age segment based on US Census data illustrates a balanced distribution across the City in 2010.

Over the next 15 years, the 0-17 age segment is projected to decrease by 4% while those 55 and older are projected to increase by 5%, making up approximately one quarter of the population by 2033. This reflects Baby Boomers shifting into the senior age segment.

Given the differences in how the active adults (55 and older) participate in recreation programs, the trend is moving toward having two or three different program age segments for older adults. As the park and recreation system evolves it will be important to ensure meaningful recreational experiences are available for active adults falling within the 55-64, 65–74, and 75+ age segments. Sources: US Census Bureau, 2019; ESRI, 2019.

Figure 2-3

Population by Age Segment

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2019; ESRI, 2019.

Tracy’s current population is diverse. 2018 estimates show that 50% of the City’s population is White Alone, while the Some Other Race category (18%) and Asian (15%) represent the largest minorities. Predictions for 2033 project the City’s population will diversify even further with a decrease in the White Alone population by approximately 6% and an increase of 3% in the Some Other Race category.

Based on the 2018 estimate, those of Hispanic/Latino origin represented 41% of the City’s total population, which is anticipated to experience a significant increase to 48% by 2033.

INCOME

The City’s per capita income level falls below state and national averages, while the median household income levels are significantly higher than both the state and national averages. This can be directly correlated to Tracy having an average household size of 3.4, which is significantly higher than the state (2.92) and the US (2.59).

ABILITY

The CDC has reported that 1 in 4 US adults (61 million Americans) have a disability that impacts major life activities. It will be critical for Tracy to ensure that people of all abilities can use and enjoy our parks. Sources: US Census Bureau, 2019; ESRI, 2019.

Figure 2-5

Comparative Income Characteristics

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2019; ESRI, 2019.

Dr. Powers Park