LINEAR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

Infrastructure development is explicitly part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 9 is to “build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation” and includes targets and indicators for the construction of new roads and other linear infrastructure, especially in developing countries (see Box 1). Robust and reliable infrastructure—transport, irrigation, energy, and information and communication technology—is critical for boosting a country’s economic growth by enabling trade, powering businesses, connecting workers to their jobs, and creating new growth opportunities for struggling communities.”11

Box 1: SDG Goal 9—Targets and Indicators Relevant to Linear Infrastructure

Target 9.1

Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all.

Indicator 9.1.1

Proportion of the rural population who live within 2 km of an all-season road

Target 9.a

Facilitate sustainable and resilient infrastructure development in developing countries through enhanced financial, technological, and technical support to African countries, least developed countries, landlocked developing countries, and small island developing States.

Indicator 9.a.1

Total of official international support (official development assistance plus other official flows) to infrastructure

10 Hallegatte, S. et al (2019), p. Xiii.

Linear infrastructure is expected to grow significantly throughout Asia in the coming decades, representing significant risks as well as potential benefits across Southeast Asia. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has estimated that $26 trillion needs to be invested in infrastructure from 2016 to 2030 to maintain economic momentum in Asia, including $14.7 trillion for power and $8.4 trillion for transport.12 The Linear Infrastructure Safeguards in Asia (LISA) project identified extensive overlap between planned linear infrastructure routes and areas of high biodiversity value in Asia.13

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a key driver of linear infrastructure investment in Asia. Since 2013, the BRI has seen investment from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in major infrastructure projects intended as a network of transnational economic corridors, transportation routes, oil and gas pipelines, and electricity grids to “assist mainland China and participating countries to hedge against the inherent geopolitical risks of single trade routes.”14 A recent study of the BRI in ASEAN found that nearly half of all investment from PRC in BRI countries has been directed to ASEAN member states,15 with the value of investment by companies from PRC in ASEAN member states increasing by 85 percent since the BRI was initiated.16 Figure 1 maps key BRI projects in ASEAN and demonstrates both the number of linear infrastructure projects and the spread of BRI projects across ASEAN.

WWF conducted a spatial analysis of potential environmental and social impacts of the proposed BRI corridors in relation to threatened species, environmentally important areas—including key biodiversity areas (KBAs) and biodiversity hotspots—protected areas, water-related ecosystem services, and wilderness characteristics.17 A summary and analysis showed significant areas of potential negative impacts across all BRI corridors, including in the ASEAN region.

12 ADB (2017) Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure Needs, cited in USAID (2021) Building a Foundation for Linear Infrastructure Safeguards in Asia, p. 14.

13  USAID (2021), p. 39.

14  Tritto, A. et al (2020) The Belt and Road Initiative in ASEAN: Overview, United Overseas Bank and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Institute for Emerging Market Studies, p. 3.

15  Tritto, A. et al. (2020) The Belt and Road Initiative in ASEAN: Overview, United Overseas Bank and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Institute for Emerging Market Studies, p. 4.

16  Tritto, A. et al. (2020) The Belt and Road Initiative in ASEAN: Overview, United Overseas Bank and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Institute for Emerging Market Studies, p. 11.

17  WWF (2017) The Belt and Road Initiative: WWF Recommendations and Spatial Analysis, p. 3-4.

Three key factors make resilience and inclusivity in linear infrastructure development critically important in ASEAN. First, member states will pursue their economic and social development needs through, inter alia, investment in linear infrastructure. Eight of the ten ASEAN member states are classified as developing member countries (DMCs) by the ADB (Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam).19 In 2017, ADB estimated the infrastructure investment needs for Southeast Asia over the life of the SDGs (2016-2030) as $6.347 trillion (in 2015 prices), amounting to 8.8 percent of the region’s GDP.

This estimate uses “climate-adjusted” figures that include climate mitigation and direct climate-proofing costs but excludes broader adaptation costs such as coastal protection and flood control for disaster risk reduction. 20 Climate proofing includes “measures such as elevating road embankments… and enhancing design and maintenance standards.”21 Roads and electricity supply represent major components of these investment needs. Because road density and quality is low in developing Asia, expectations of new road development and major upgrade works are high. 22 Many ASEAN countries also have very low levels of per capita electricity generation and high levels of electricity lost in transmission and distribution. 23 A global study in 2017 (see Table 1) calculated the value of investments needed for seven of the ASEAN countries by 2040. 24 The BRI represents significant investment in linear infrastructure projects, both planned and underway, throughout the ASEAN region (see Annex 1 for a summary of the major linear infrastructure projects under the BRI in ASEAN countries).

18  Tritto, A. et al. (2020) The Belt and Road Initiative in ASEAN: Overview, United Overseas Bank and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Institute for Emerging Market Studies, p. 14-15.

19  ADB (2022) Operations Manual Policies and Procedures (Section A1)—Classification and Graduation of Developing Member Countries (issued on 1 January 2022), p. 4.

20  ADB (2017), p. 43.

21  ADB (2017), p. Xiv.

22  ADB (2017), p. 10.

23  ADB (2017), p. 12.

Cambodia $59 billion $87 billion $28 billion

Indonesia $1.6 trillion $1.7 trillion $70 billion

Malaysia $383 billion $460 billion $77 billion

Myanmar $111 billion $224 billion $112 billion

Philippines $429 billion $498 billion $69 billion

Singapore $94 billion $94 billion $278 million

Thailand $394 billion $494 billion $100 billion

Vietnam $503 billion $605 billion $102 billion

Current investment trends

Baseline forecasts of infrastructure investment under the assumption that countries continue to invest in line with current trends, with growth occurring only in response to changes in each country’s economic and demographic fundamentals.

Investment need

The investment that would occur if countries were to match the performance of their best performing peers, after controlling for differences in the characteristics of each country.

Second, ASEAN boasts some of the most important, but also most threatened, biodiversity in the world. The Indo-Burma Biodiversity Hotspot—which comprises five of the ten ASEAN member states (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam), as well as parts of southern China—is “ranked in the top 10 hotspots for irreplaceability and in the top five for threat, with only 5 percent of its natural habitat remaining and with more people than any other hotspot.”25 The region also encompasses the Philippines Biodiversity Hotspot, Sundaland Biodiversity Hotspot (which covers part of southern Thailand, most of Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and the western half of Indonesia), and part of the Wallacea Hotspot (central Indonesia and Timor-Leste).

Third, ASEAN represents an opportunity to not just consider environmental and socioeconomic developmental similarities, but also a forum for collective action in response to identified issues. The ASEAN Charter provides a legal framework and political commitment for addressing common challenges through information sharing, regional integration, and multilateral agreements. Given many of the challenges associated with linear infrastructure in the region are transboundary, they require stronger approaches to ensuring infrastructure is inclusive and resilient, as well as cooperative and coordinated in its implementation. Figure 2 illustrates the interconnected nature of these challenges.

The issues involved in the pursuit of resilient and inclusive linear infrastructure development are also clear elements of ASEAN’s broader objectives. The ASEAN Community Vision 2025 commits the ASEAN member states to realize “a rules-based, people-centered ASEAN Community, where people enjoy human rights and fundamental freedoms, higher quality of life, and community building benefits.”26 The ASEAN PoliticalSecurity Community pillar supports this commitment with the following: 27

8.1 A rules-based community that fully adheres to ASEAN fundamental principles, shared values, and norms, as well as principles of international law governing the peaceful conduct of relations among states

8.2. An inclusive and responsive community that ensures our peoples enjoy human rights and fundamental freedoms as well as thrive in a just, democratic, harmonious, and gendersensitive environment in accordance with the principles of democracy, good governance, and the rule of law

The ASEAN Economic Community pillar aims to realize: 28

10.3. Enhanced connectivity and sectoral cooperation with improvements in regional frameworks, including strategic sectoral policies vital to the effective operationalization of the economic community

10.4. A resilient, inclusive, people-oriented, and people-centered community that engenders equitable development and inclusive growth

The ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community pillar emphazies resilience, inclusivity, and sustainability with undertakings for:

12.1 A committed, participative, and socially responsible community through an accountable and inclusive mechanism for the benefit of our peoples, upheld by the principles of good governance

12.2 An inclusive community that promotes high quality of life and equitable access to opportunities for all and that promotes and protects human rights of women, children, youth, the elderly/older persons, persons with disabilities, migrant workers, and vulnerable and marginalized groups

12.3 A sustainable community that promotes social development and environmental protection through effective mechanisms to meet the current and future needs of our peoples

12.4 A resilient community with enhanced capacity and capability to adapt and respond to social and economic vulnerabilities, disasters, and climate change as well as emerging threats and challenges

12.5 A dynamic and harmonious community that is aware and proud of its identity, culture, and heritage, with the strengthened ability to innovate and proactively contribute to the global community

The ASEAN Community Vision 2025 also integrates with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the SDGs. 29

29 ASEAN Community Vision 2025, https://www.asean.org/wp-content/uploads/images/2015/November/aec-page/ASEAN-Community-Vision-2025.pdf (paragraph 6).