Ceredigion Energy Audit 2004 – 2005
Mid Wales Energy Agency T. Dunbabin (2005) Ceredigion Energy Audit was commissioned by Ymlaen Ceredigion for Ceredigion Energy Forum, and funded by Environment Wales and the RES-e regions project, Ceredigion Partnership Management Board’s Future Communities scheme, the National Assembly’s Local Regeneration Fund & European Regional Development Fund.
For further information contact, Mid Wales Energy Agency, 0845 4585973, www.mwea.org.uk or Ymlaen Ceredigion, 01970 633395, bobj@ymlaenceredigion.org.uk
Ceredigion Energy Audit 2004 – 2005 Contents Page
Introduction
2
Executive Summary
3
National and Local Targets
8
Fuel Poverty
12
Electricity and Gas Networks
29
Potential for Renewable energy in Ceredigion
35
Conclusions and Recommendations
44
References
49
Glossary
51
Energy Tables Notes
53
1
Introduction The energy audit aims to provide baseline figures on energy consumption in Ceredigion. A detailed assessment of transport was not included in this study however some transport data has been included. Where transport data is not included this has been indicated in the text. Figures relating to overall energy consumption, carbon dioxide balances and carbon dioxide reduction targets all include energy consumption due to transport. The consumption of electricity from renewable sources via green tariff schemes from various energy companies is not included in audit calculations in order to prevent double counting All assumptions are clearly indicated either in the energy tables or in the energy tables notes included at the end of this document
Dr. Tim Dunbabin. April 2005.
2
Energy Audit - Executive Summary UK Energy consumption in 2003 was 1,838 TWh with the transport and domestic sectors as the largest users accounting for 36% and 30% of energy consumption respectively Ceredigion’s share (by population) of UK energy use is approx. 2,272 GWh of energy. The largest areas of UK fuel use are petroleum in the transport sector and gas in the domestic sector. Ceredigion directly consumes 1,788 GWh, 79% of its share (by population) of UK energy consumption The areas of largest use are petroleum in the transport sector, solid fuel and oil in the domestic sector Excluding transport, the largest UK user of energy is heating, 54% of non-transport energy - consisting of space heating, 41%, and water heating, 13%. Table 1 Fuel use Ceredigion
UK
Ceredigion (excluding transport)
UK (excluding transport)
Solid fuel Electricity Gas Petroleum
2% 19% 36% 43%
23% 24% 24% 29%
3% 28% 57% 12%
18% 20% 19% 43%
Ceredigion fuel use is markedly different from the UK. Only 26% of Ceredigion households receive mains gas In Ceredigion 370 GWh, 21% of overall use is directly due to transport, including transportation of goods into and out of the county Renewable energy generation in the county produces approximately 345 GWh, about 19.3% of the total energy used. Renewables produce about 318 GWh of electricity, about 89% of the electricity demand of the county On balance (fossil fuels minus renewable generation) Ceredigion energy consumption is responsible for 400,000 tonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 5.34 tonnes of CO2 per person Ceredigion domestic energy use is 1,004 GWh. Of this 88% is used for heating – of space (71%) and of water (17%). Heating using wood fuel accounts for 3% of domestic heating energy. Ceredigion annual domestic fuel cost is estimated at £29.3 million. Wood accounts for about £½ million, all other fuel either produced outside the county or, in the case 3
of wind farms owned by national or international companies not based in Ceredigion. Some money is retained in the local economy due to employment associated with generation and in the distribution of some fuels. Fuel prices The price per GJ for broadleaf logs is only 1% more than the lowest price for mains gas. Wood pellets (bulk) are cheaper than oil, LPG, anthracite or electricity Overall the prices paid for all fuel and light has risen by 5.8% in real terms between Q3 2003 and Q3 2004. Fuel Poverty The Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act 2000 defines fuel poverty as “ a person is to be regarded as living in fuel poverty if they are a member of a household living on a lower income which cannot be kept warm at a reasonable cost Fuel poverty is influenced by three main factors • The cost of fuel • The energy efficiency of the dwelling and heating systems • The income of the residents An estimated 17.2% of houses in Wales are fuel poor (A Fuel Poverty Commitment for Wales WAG, 2003).. This figure is based on an estimate of those households who meet the HEES eligibility criteria. If fuel poverty is equally distributed based on population then in Ceredigion this would equate to 5,335 houses Fuel poverty in Ceredigion, estimated by HEES eligibility by tenure type, equates to 4,577 households. A Welsh Small Area Fuel Poverty Indicator will be available in late 2005 that will identify fuel poverty at the electoral ward and sub ward levels allowing specific targeting of advice and resources. A fuel poverty report is included within this study. Ceredigion CO2 Reduction Targets From the recommendations of the International Panel on Climate Change to achieve stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 the aim of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 60% of 1990 levels by 2050 has been accepted internationally. This long-term aim has been accepted by the UK government in the Energy White paper (2003) and by the Welsh Assembly Government (MIPPS D/01/04 July 2004).
4
Ceredigion CO2 Reduction Targets CO2 due to increasing energy consumption and growth
1,000,000
C O 2 E m is s io n s (to n n e s /y r)
900,000
y = 6792.74x - 13006299.31 2 R = 0.95
CO2 balance
800,000 2050 Target
700,000 600,000
2020 Target
500,000
1990 level
400,000
No further RE and EE
300,000 200,000
60% reduction
100,000
Linear (CO2 due to increasing energy consumption and growth)
0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Fig 1. Ceredigion CO2 reduction targets (See table 2 for details.) If there was no increase in energy consumption, population or number of households over the period then to reduce CO2 emissions to the 60% reduction target by 2050 would require and annual reduction of approximately 5,000 tonnes. Accounting for projected growth an annual reduction of approximately 11,800 tonnes of CO2 emissions is required to meet the 2050 reduction target. Ceredigion CO2 Reduction Strategy A carbon dioxide calculator is included in the energy tables
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Table 2. CO2 Reduction Targets
1990 Consumption minus 1990 renewable generation 2005 Consumption
UK
Ceredigion
Tonnes CO2
Tonnes CO2
530,128,045 581,895,620
436,721 612,866
2,878,000
212,051,218
6,793 213,040 399,826 174,688
369,844,402
225,138
Annual reduction (tonnes CO2) 8,218,764 Reduction plus growth 11,096,764 Annual Requirement MWh electric 16,967,530 Wind farm capacity MW * 6,456 Biomass CHP (MWh) 18,122,018 Biomass CHP capacity (MW) ** 3,516.83
5,003 11,796
Annual CO2 increase due to growth in consumption Ceredigion Renewables Ceredigion current balance 2050 target Total reduction required (60% reduction from 1990 levels)
2050 scenario
18,037 6.86 11,032 2.14
UK
Ceredigion
Tonnes CO2
Tonnes CO2
2020 vision Annual reduction (tonnes CO2) 27,534,293 Reduction plus growth 30,412,293 Annual Requirement MWh electric 46,501,978 Wind farm capacity MW * 17,695 Biomass CHP (MWh) 60,711,918 Biomass CHP capacity (MW) ** 11,782
21,802 28,595 43,724 16.64 48,073 9.33
Total Reduction to 60% of 1990 levels by 2050 Electric (MWh Wind farm capacity MW Biomass CHP (MWh) Biomass CHP capacity (MW)
14,960,524,551 5,692,741 447,920,156 86,925.14
6
811,655 308.85 272,667 52.91
Potential for Renewable Energy Wind Analysis of maps from The Special Planning of Wind Turbine Development in Wales (CCW for the WAG) indicates the potential land area for wind farm development. In Ceredigion the potential area is estimated as 65km2 with a potential for 388 MW capacity (at 6 MW per km2) Hydro The data relating to the potential for hydro powered generation in Ceredigion is sparse dated, difficult to obtain and considered by some to be erroneous. A new mapping analysis, relating to the current technologies and direct experience could be achieved at very low cost Biomass It is estimated that the sustainable yield of all forestry in Ceredigion is about 145,000 ODT. The potential for other energy crops is currently under investigation at IGER. Due to the change to the Single Farm Payment scheme there is considerable potential for farmers to grow biomass fuels. Ecological Footprint The Total Eco-footprint of Ceredigion per capita is 3.9 ha, compared to the UK average 5.4 ha, the global average of 2.28 ha and the sustainable fair share of 1.9 ha. If Ceredigion met the 2050 target the Eco-footprint per capita would be 2.82 ha. The Energy Eco-footprint of Ceredigion is 1.89 ha per person – in comparison to the UK average of 3.4 ha per person, the average global energy eco-footprint of 1.12 ha. and the sustainable share of 0.93 ha. If Ceredigion met the 2050 target the energy eco-footprint per capita would be 0.82 ha.
7
National and Local Targets UK Government targets Under the internationally agreed Kyoto Protocol (1997), the UK government has a commitment as a share of the EU’s reduction target, to reduce emissions of 6 greenhouse gases to 12.5% below 1990 levels over the period 2008-2012 From recommendations from the International Panel on Climate Change to achieve stabilisation of atmospheric CO2, the aim of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 60% of 1990 levels by 2050 has been accepted internationally. This long-term aim, as recommended by the Royal Environmental Commission on Pollution, has been accepted by the UK government in the Energy White paper (2003) In 1999 the UK set an ambitious national target of a 20 per cent cut in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 from 1990 levels. In November 2004 the government issued a statement indicating it was unlikely to meet this target and it was only likely to meet a 14 per cent reduction by 2010. Under the Renewables Obligation the UK government has defined a target for renewable power to provide 10% of UK electricity by 2010
Welsh Assembly Government Targets The Assembly Government as part of the UK strategy for emissions reduction has defined a renewable energy target of 4 Terawatt hours by 2010 with an aim of 20% by 2020 (Ministerial Interim Planning Policy Statement on Renewable Energy, D01/04) The WAG has the aim of 10% of all electricity production in Wales to come from clean energy sources (Plan for Wales 2001) (Strategic Plan). Technical Advice Note (TAN 8: Renewable Energy) Draft (2004) To fulfil the WAG target 4TWh of renewable energy by 2010 it was concluded that • Onshore wind energy represented the only technology that required some form of ‘planning tool’. • most of the RE development over the next six years would be onshore wind • that leaving local authorities in isolation to plan for renewable energy (with or without a ‘planning tool’) was unlikely to allow Wales to meet its wider obligations with respect to national and international carbon dioxide reduction • that to ensure further projects went ahead a significant change in approach in the planning system was required The Welsh Assembly Government therefore took the view that there was a need to plan for between 800 –1000 Megawatts of installed capacity of onshore wind (some 400-600 additional turbines approximately) by 2010 if there was to be a realistic chance of achieving the 4TWh target. Research using a Geographic Information System (GIS) identified seven strategic areas for large-scale onshore wind energy development in Wales. The Nant-y-Moch area in north Ceredigion was identified as a strategic area with a likely scale of 100 (+/- 50) Megawatt capacity.
8
It was also found that spare electrical capacity sufficient to accommodate large-scale onshore wind energy developments was scarce, unevenly distributed and without the implementation of planned improvements to the network by 2010 - 2015 in mid- and northWales, there would not be sufficient gird capacity to allow the achievement of the 4 TWh target. Ceredigion Community Strategy (Ceredigion County Council) The Local Government Act 2000 gave councils a duty to promote the sustainable development of their local communities. This required councils to, in partnership with businesses, communities, voluntary groups and public sector organisations to produce a community Strategy that identifies long-term targets and action to improve their local area. Whilst the strategy gives support for energy efficiency and renewable energy and defines household energy use and thermal efficiency of the local authority housing stock as outcome indicators it has no quantifiable targets for the reduction of energy consumption, renewable energy generation or the reduction of greenhouse gas / CO2 emissions. The Sustainability Plan for Ceredigion 2001 –2004 (Ymlaen Ceredigion) The plan defines strategic objectives for energy and makes many recommendations but has no quantifiable targets for the reduction of energy consumption, renewable energy generation, or the reduction of greenhouse gas or CO2 emissions. The plan was due for review at the end of 2004. Unitary Development Plan (Ceredigion County Council The Ceredigion UDP gives support to energy conservation and the development of smallscale renewable energy generation. The plan has no quantifiable targets for energy efficiency, renewable energy generation or CO2 emissions reduction. In accordance with the Planning Policy Wales (2002), local planning authorities “should undertake an assessment of the potential of all renewable energy resources and the potential of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency and conservation measures and include detailed policies in their UDPs”. In undertaking such assessments local planning authorities should take into account the contribution that can be made by the area towards carbon emission reduction and renewable energy production targets. Ceredigion County Council Energy Policy (2000) Ceredigion County Council will ensure that:• Good energy management is treated as an integral part of good management within Ceredigion Council. • Energy efficiency will be treated as a high priority together with developing energy efficiency strategies. • Energy efficiency will be considered at regular management meetings. • Resources will be provided as necessary to enable energy management to be addressed in a professional and efficient manner. • Staff involved in energy management will be afforded full co-operation by all other Departmental staff to enable them to carry out their duties effectively and efficiently Ceredigion County Council will • buy all fuels at the most beneficial economic and environmental cost. • ensure that correct utility tariffs are applied. • use all finite fuels as efficiently as practicable and reduce consumption wherever possible. • reduce the amount of pollution, particularly CO2 emissions, caused by energy consumption. 9
• • • • • • •
increase energy efficiency. increase the proportion of renewable energy compared to fossil fuels. increase investment in clean, energy efficient technologies. reduce all environmental impacts arising from energy consumption as far as practical, consistent with the operational needs of the Authority’s activities. manage waste through a four-tier approach: reduce, reuse, and recycle with disposal as a last resort. co-operate and work ‘hand-in-hand’ with District Audit over Stewardship of the Environment to achieve those aims through Local Agenda 21, promote sustainable development projects and ideas at all levels.
References DTI (2003) Energy White Paper: Our Energy Future – creating a low carbon economy Welsh Assembly Government (2002), Planning Policy Wales MIPPS D/01/04 July 2004 Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target (2004) WAG Technical Advice Note (TAN 8: Renewable Energy) Draft (2004) WAG
10
Map of the Nant y Moch area from Draft Tan 8
11
Ceredigion Energy Audit Fuel Poverty Report Fuel Poverty in Wales The Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act (2000) – A Fuel Poverty Commitment for Wales defines fuel poverty as “ a person is to be regarded as living in fuel poverty if they are a member of a household living on a lower income which cannot be kept warm at a reasonable cost. By this definition fuel poverty is influenced by three main factors • The cost of fuel • The energy efficiency of the dwelling and heating systems • The income of the residents The Welsh Assembly Government’s current definition of fuel poverty defines a satisfactory heating regime as 21ºC in the living room and 18ºC in other rooms. Reasonable cost is defined as less than 10% of its income (including Housing Benefit or Income Support for Mortgage Interest) on all household fuel use. Debate is ongoing as to whether housing benefit and ISMI should not be included and that a maximum of 10% of disposable income should be considered reasonable cost. It is noted that for many claimants housing benefit does not pay the full cost of rent and that the additional cost is effectively paid from what might initially be considered disposable income. The scale of fuel poverty in Wales was estimated at 220,000 in 2002 (A Fuel Poverty Commitment for Wales, (2003) WAG), 17.16% of Welsh households. The figure of 220,000 is based upon an estimated eligibility for Home Energy Efficiency Scheme (HEES). The aim of the scheme is to reduce fuel poverty by reducing fuel bills and improving domestic energy efficiency for households at risk from poor health. HEES is not an ideal measure of fuel poverty, some fuel poor households would not be eligible and some eligible households would not considered in fuel poverty. HEES HEES was introduced in 2000 giving a grant of up £1,500 for a package of heating and insulation measures to householders with a child under 16 and in receipt of one of the following benefits: Housing Benefit, Council Tax Benefit, Working Tax Credit (household income under £14,200) or Child Tax Credit (household income under £14,200). Measures include including loft insulation, cavity wall insulation, hot water tank insulation, gas room heaters, converting a solid fuel open fire to a glass fronted fire, electric storage heaters, draught proofing low energy light bulbs and energy advice. HEES Plus provides a grant of up to £2,700 offering the same measures as HEES but may also offer a gas or electric central heating system and security measures. Like HEES eligibility is related to receipt of certain benefits. The scheme is targeted at people aged 60 or over, lone parents with children aged under 16, and disabled or chronically sick householders. Further details on eligibility at http://www.eaga.co.uk/ HEES funding is available for local authorities and for housing associations but only at a 50% level with a matched funding requirement.
12
From October 2000 to February 2003 HEES has benefited over 25,000 households in Wales. (Benefit of HEES 2002-03, WAG) Fuel Poverty Wales (HEES Eligibility) 140,000 117,000
120,000
Households
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 32,000
33,000
Sick or disabled
Other households with children
40,000 20,000 0
At least 1 person over 60
Lone parent
Fig 1. HEES Eligibility. (A Fuel Poverty Commitment to Wales 2003) Figure 1 shows the distribution of the target groups within the HEES eligible households in Wales. Fuel Poverty Wales by Tenure (HEES Eligibility) 140,000
Households
120,000
115,000
100,000
84,000
80,000 60,000 40,000 23,000
20,000 0 Social housing
Owner occupied
Private rented
Fig 2. Fuel Poverty in Wales by Tenure (A Fuel Poverty Commitment to Wales 2003) Figure 2 indicates that the greatest number of fuel poor households is in the social housing sector (local authority rented or housing association rented). However the data should be considered in relation to the table below which shows that nearly 50% of households that live in social housing live in fuel poverty. Table 1. Household tenure and HEES eligibility Tenure Total in HEES Eligible Fuel poor % Wales * (Fuel poor) Social 243,390 115,000 47.9 Housing 13
Owner Occupied Private Rented
935,130
84,000
9.0
115,290
23,000
20.5
* DWS 2003
Wales HEES - Measures Required 140,000 121,000 120,000
Households
100,000 80,000 60,000 41,000 40,000
29,000
29,000
20,000 0
Central heating
Loft insulation
Cavity wall insulation
Hot water tank insulation
Fig
3.
HEES measures required (A Fuel Poverty Commitment to Wales 2003) The above figure shows the type of work needed for HEES eligible households, with cavity wall insulation being the largest requirement. HEES has benefited over 25,000 households in Wales (October 2000 to Feb 2003). This is less than 12% of the number of households identified as in fuel poverty The Welsh Housing Condition Survey (1998) shows that 89% of households in Wales have central heating. Households with significantly lower percentage of central heating are single pensioners (80.5%), other single people (80.9%), and rented accommodation (72%).
Welsh targets for fuel poverty The Welsh Assembly Government has set a target to eliminate fuel poverty in vulnerable households by 2010, in non-vulnerable households in social housing by 2012 and all households in Wales by 2018 (A Fuel Poverty Commitment to Wales (2003) WAG). The National Housing Strategy of the WAG (Better Homes for People in Wales, 2001) has the aspiration for the housing stock of Wales to give all households in Wales good quality homes, which are in a good state of repair; safe and secure; adequately heated, fuel efficient and well insulated. Welsh Quality Housing Standard To fulfill the Welsh Housing Quality Standard heating systems must be capable of heating the whole of the dwelling to a comfortable level in normal weather conditions and be rreasonably economical to run. Doors and windows should be sufficiently well fitting so that they do not cause severe draughts, the main entrance door should not open directly 14
into the living room. Hot water tanks should be effectively insulated, pipes and tanks in the roof-space should be lagged and loft insulation should be at least 200 mm The Assembly Government requires that social housing landlords to achieve the Welsh Housing Quality Standard for all their dwellings by 2012. The Welsh Housing Quality Standard provides for the annual energy consumption for space and water heating to be estimated using the SAP (Standard Assessment Procedure) method and specifies the minimum ratings to be achieved. These minimum ratings apply to existing homes and vary with the floor area of dwellings Table 2. Welsh Quality Housing Standard minimum SAP ratings for homes Floor area m² SAP rating
Up to 35 36 – 40 41 – 45 46 – 50 51 – 55 56 – 60 61 – 70 71 – 80 81 – 90 91 – 100 101 – 110 111-120 > 120
58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
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Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) The rating takes into account heating systems and insulation in homes. The rating ranges from 120 (high energy efficiency) to 1 (very energy inefficient) The SAP rating aims to indicate the energy efficiency of the dwelling, irrespective of its size, geographical location, climate or tenant. The rating measures the cost of heating per unit of floor area, taking into consideration the rate of heat loss and the cost of supplying the lost heat. The heat loss depends on the dwelling, the thermal properties of the building fabric, the degree of insulation and level of ventilation. Heating cost is affected by the efficiency of the heating system, the price of the fuel used and any solar gain. New properties are required to comply with Part L of the Building Regulations, which typically produced SAP ratings of 80+. (SAP 2001) The National Home Energy Rating (NHER) NHER takes into account the local environment and how it affects the energy use of the dwelling. It models climatic variations like wind speed and orientation, allowing ratings to take account of the geographical location of a house, which the SAP cannot do. The costs of energy for lighting, appliances and cooking as well as space and water heating and standard charges are included in the assessment. The rating ranges from 0.0 (very poor) to 10.0 (excellent). An average house in England is probably rated between 4.5 and 5.5. New built houses, conforming to the current building regulations are likely to rated 8.0 or higher. (Hard to Heat Homes, MWEA)
SAP Rating and Fuel Poverty 60
SAP Rating
50 40 30 20 10 0
Fuel rich
Non-fuel poor Marginal fuel Moderate fuel poverty poverty
Severe fuel poverty
Fig 4. Average SAP rating and fuel poverty group (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister 2001)
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Table 3. Benefits of HEES Before 39.84 4.87
After 56.66 6.78
Gain 16.82 1.91
7.61
6
1.61
£740
£558
£182
Energy consumption (GJ/yr)
101.61
85.8
15.81
Energy consumption (MWh/yr)
28.45
24.02
4.43
SAP rating NHER rating CO2 Emissions (tonnes/yr) Running Costs (£/yr)
Table 3 shows the average energy consumption, emissions and financial improvements due to HEES with energy consumption reduced by 16%, emissions by 21% and running costs reduced by 25%. Table 4. Comparison of HEES and HEES + with gas condensing boiler Terrace SemiDetached Large detached detached Baseline SAP Energy costs (£/yr) CO2 emissions (t/yr)
1 1,224 13
1 1,356 15
1 1,727 20
1 2,078 25
With HEES SAP Energy costs / yr CO2 emissions (t/yr)
21 957 10.6
30 975 10.7
20 1,218 14.8
26 1,419 17.8
49 574 5.8
54 627 6.5
45 769 8.6
50 916 10.4
With HEES+ including gas condensing boiler SAP Energy costs (£/yr) CO2 emissions (t/yr)
Table 4 shows the effect of HEES+ with a gas-condensing boiler. The output is from the NHER evaluator model. The baseline is for properties with no energy efficiency measures. The standard HEES measures of two compact fluorescent lamps, three storage heaters, loft insulation top up to 200mm, draught proofing of windows and doors and a hot water cylinder jacket are given for the “with HEES” output and the “with HEES+” a gas boiler replaces the storage heaters. The table demonstrates the financial and emissions benefits of gas heating and underlines the disadvantage of lack of access to mains gas. (Alternative measures for HEES, 2002) “U” Value The rate at which buildings let heat escape is measured by a figure called the 'U' value, in Watts/sq metre/°C. with higher 'U' values indicating more heat loss. Good insulation produces lower 'U' values. There are British Standards for the design of new buildings, which in general should have an average 'U' value of better than 0.45 (Building Regulations 1990) 17
Fuel Prices Fuel costs are not static but vary according to market conditions and taxation. Thus fuel poverty is also not static and households may dip in and out of fuel poverty depending on fuel cost. The DTI fuel poverty ready reckoner (based on the 2001 English House Condition Survey) indicates that each 1% rise (in real terms – i.e. above inflation) in gas and electricity prices increases fuel poverty in venerable households by 2.9% and by 2.4% in all fuel poor households. It is estimated that fuel poverty in the UK has fallen from about 5½ million in 1996 to about 3 million in 2001. Much of this reduction is thought to be due to changes in incomes and energy prices. (Fuel Poverty - UK Sector Indicators 2004) Heat Cymru, a part of the HEAT project offer grants to all householders regardless of income for cavity wall insulation and loft insulation with cost to the householder related to the efficiency benefits it brings i.e. a larger grant for insulating a bare loft than for a top up of insulation. Whilst many dwelling in Ceredigion do not have cavity walls and cannot benefit the scheme has the note-worthy point that it helps remove the perception that energy efficiency is only for people on benefits. The project is funded by the utilities companies under the Energy Efficiency Agreement
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Fuel Poverty in Ceredigion If the estimated 220,000 households in fuel poverty in Wales were divided equally by population then it would affect 5,335 (17.16%) of Ceredigion households. Fuel poverty is not equally distributed but is affected by socio-economic and geographic factors. Domestic Energy Use The base figure for Home Energy Conservation Act (HECA) for Ceredigion (relating to domestic energy use) is 1,055,569 MWh for 1997. This figure is based upon the number of residential properties and factors that have a direct influence on energy efficiency, such as built form, age or heating profiles of the stock. The base figure can be reduced to 946,845 MWh for 2004 due to the energy efficiency savings reported by the County Council over the period 1997 –2004. The 2004 base figure is more than 50% higher than the domestic energy use if determined from UK figures on a population basis, indicating the hard to heat nature of the Ceredigion housing stock. Ceredigion housing Housing Stock Ceredigion - Age of Dwellings 14,000
12,000 9,200
Number of dwellings
12,000 10,000
4,789
8,000
3,000
6,000
2,100
4,000 2,000 0
Pre 1919
1919 1944
1945 1964
1965 1997
Post 1997
Fig 5. Ceredigion housing stock by age of dwelling. (WHCS 1998, Census 2001) The above figure shows the age distribution of the Ceredigion housing stock, indicating 39% of dwellings were built before 1919. These homes are likely to be the hard to heat due to solid stone walls that cannot benefit from cavity wall insulation.
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Housing Stock Ceredigion (Dwelling T ype)
612
Detached
Semi detached
404
1,439 1,886
16,394
Terraced (inc end of terrace) Purpose built flats
5,360 Part of converted house /shared house / bed-sit In commercial building
7,021 Caravan or mobile structure
Fig 6. Ceredigion housing stock by dwelling type (Census 2001,ONS) Figure 6 shows the predominance of detached housing in Ceredigion. Detached houses have a greater external surface to volume ratio and thus require relatively more energy to heat. Type s of Housing - Ce re digion v s England and Wale s 50 45
Ceredigion
40 35
(%)
30
England and W ales
25 20 15 10 5 0
De tache d
Se mide tache d
Te rrace d
Flat
Fig 7. Types of housing – Ceredigion vs. England and Wales (Census 2001, ONS) The above figure indicates that the high incidence of detached housing is a major characteristic of the Ceredigion housing stock.
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Central Heating Energy Use for Solid and Cavity Walls
H e a tin g R e q u ire m e n t k W h /y r
45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000
solid walls
20,000 filled cavity walls
15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Flat
Detatched Semibungalow detached bungalow
Mid terraced house
End terraced house
Semi- Detatched detached house house
Fig 8. Comparison of heating energy requirements for solid and filled cavity walled dwellings. (Energy Efficiency Best Practise Guide - Central Heating System Specification 2002 – EST) The figure above shows the heating requirement of different properties with solid and cavity filled walls. The data is for a reference case using gas central heating calculated using the BRE Domestic Energy Model (BREDEM). Heating requirements for solid walled dwellings are at least 47% greater than their cavity-walled counterparts with detached houses requiring 87% more energy Housing Stock Ceredigion (T enure)
Ow ne d outright
1,415 4,166 13,395
Ow ne d w ith a m ortga ge Sha re d ow ne rship
867
Loca l Authority
2,849 Socia l la ndlord Priva te la ndlord or le tting a ge ncy
93
othe r
8,189
Fig 9. Ceredigion housing stock by tenure (Census 2001,ONS)
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The figure above shows the distribution of tenure type for Ceredigion. Recent housing stock estimates (WHS 2004) give local authority rented - 2,317, registered social landlord rented 1,349 all other tenure as 27,816. Table 1 indicates that fuel poor households are likely be in social housing (local authority rented or social landlord) and privately rented dwellings. Using the percentage data from Table 1 and the data shown in the above graph an estimate of fuel poverty in Ceredigion by tenure is derived in the table below. Table 5. Estimate of fuel poverty in Ceredigion by tenure Tenure
Fuel poor % (Wales, from Table 1)
Total in Ceredigion
Ceredigion fuel poor households
47.9
3,716
1,780
9
21,584
1,943
20.5
4,166
854
Social Housing Owner Occupied Private Rented Total
4,577
Ceredigion Household T ype
One person household pensioner
8% 2% 5% 11%
One person household - not pensioner
17% 14%
Married / cohabiting couple household All pensioner household Lone parent household
43%
Other households w ith children Other household
Fig 10. Distribution of household types in Ceredigion (Census 2001, ONS) The above figure indicates the distribution of different household types in Ceredigion. In terms of fuel poverty vulnerable groups 25% of Ceredigion householders are pensioners and 14% are lone parent households. Some of these may have already benefited from a grant and some may already have the measures that HEES provides.
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Ceredigion Home Insulation
se fu
la
re
su N
ow
o
or
in
su in e m
d
n t io
n ti o la
la su in ll
H
D
ot
w
on
't
kn
A
at
So
er
n
te la su in
nk ta
ug ra D
t io
d
ng pi r ip
ht
ub do s w
do in W
st
gl le
ns li al w
i ty av C
az
at ul
at ul ns ti of f /l oo R
ed
ed
ed
(%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Fig 11. Home insulation in Ceredigion housing stock (WHCS 1998) The figure above shows the level of energy efficiency measures in Ceredigion households. The level of cavity wall insulation is low as expected due to the age and nature of the housing stock. The data indicates considerable further scope for low cost measures such as loft insulation, water tank insulation and draught proofing to reduce energy consumption and reduce the threat of fuel poverty.
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Ceredigion - Main Winter Heating
1%
1%
Central heating Gas fires Electric fires or heaters Solid fuel fires or stoves Oil or parafin heaters Other heating No heating
1%
9% 5% 4%
79%
Fig 12. Main form of winter heating in Ceredigion households (WHCS 1998) Housing Stock Ceredigion (Central Heating)
4,482
w ith ce ntra l he a ting w ithout ce ntra l he a ting
26,490
Fig 13. Central heating in Ceredigion (Census 2001,ONS) The above figure shows 85.5% of Ceredigion households have central heating; this is below the Welsh average of 89%. The discrepancy between figures 12 and 13 for the percentage central heating may be due to the differences in data collection of the two sources and the time difference between the two reports
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Economic data A total of 3,490 claims of housing benefit and 4,700 claims for council tax benefit were awarded in Ceredigion in 2002-03. The figures represent benefit units that may be a single person or a couple. Local Authority Housing Stock The average SAP rating of local authority rented dwellings in 2002 - 03 was 33. Due to all energy efficiency improvements and “right to buy” sales the average SAP rating for 2003 04 was 37.5. This is lower than the average SAP rating of the properties that have benefited from HEES before they were improved (see table 3) Further details of the 100% survey of the C.C.C. Housing Stock carried out in 2002 including overall average SAP, average by ward and average by build type were temporarily not available at the time of this report due to software problems. It is intended that when available they will appended to this report Fuel availability Due to relatively low fuels costs and high efficiency heating systems mains gas is one of the cheapest forms of domestic heating. In Ceredigion only 26% of the housing stock has access to mains gas. Three major towns of the county: Cardigan, Lampeter and Aberystwyth, are fed via high-pressure mains. Due to the low population density the low return on investment precludes further development of the mains gas network. For Ceredigion households do not have access to mains gas, heating fuels other than electricity (e.g. oil, wood, coal, delivered gas,) require storage space. For example a tank for delivered gas requires a 3-metre boundary space around it – a 1m2 tank would require a ground area of 49m2. Lack of potential fuel storage space may restrict many households to electric heating. HEES in Ceredigion A total of 372 properties in Ceredigion were improved through the HEES in 2003 Table 6. Benefits of HEES in Ceredigion 2003 Measures Number of Estimated annual Properties MWh saved
Estimated annual CO2 saving 217.30 13.38 20.86 48.74
127 689.47 Cavity Wall 361 1090.90 CFLs 101 11.88 Draught proofing 83 250.82 Heating Hot Water Tank 76 190.46 17.37 Jacket 141 860.19 271.02 Loft Insulation Totals 3093.71 588.68 Table 5 indicates the energy efficiency improvements due to HEES measures in Ceredigion. In relation to the carbon dioxide reduction targets given elsewhere in this study the total in the above figure represents 5% of the annual reduction requirement (growth included)
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Alternative measures for HEES National Energy Services report to the WAG (2002) investigated alternative measures for HEES for solid walled houses with no mains gas. It concluded that to meet the target running costs, as well as reducing carbon dioxide emissions the most promising systems are oil boilers, wood boilers, ground source heat pumps and communal LPG supply. Since this report (April 2002) fuel costs have changed considerable and thus predicted SAP ratings are not directly relevant. However all the systems identified cost more than the current HEES+ heating system allowance. Ground source heat pumps are identified as particularly efficient, especially for small to medium sized properties, and when used in conjunction with insulation measures achieved the target of heating costs comparable to mains gas. A “wet” under floor radiator system is preferable for maximum efficiency although normal radiator systems can be utilised. The NES report gives installation cost of ground source heat pumps and radiators ranged from £4,100 for a terraced property to £5,000 for a large detached property. The overall cost depends upon whether the system uses arrays in shallow trenches (two 40 metres long trenches) which is generally cheaper than creating a deep borehole. The Energy Saving Trust fact sheet suggests a cost of between £6,000 and £9,600 for ground source heat pumps plus the costs of the distribution system. A “Clear Skies” grant of £1,200 is available for householders installing ground source heat pump systems and a grant of up to 50% of eligible costs is available for community schemes. The limitations of use relate to the cost of creating a borehole or the land requirement to create trenches. Fresh Air Heating Fresh Air Heating uses similar principles to ground source heat pumps but does not require expensive boreholes or space-requiring arrays. Heating is supplied via heat recovery ventilation rather than a wet under floor radiator system and has added health benefits of eliminating dampness, condensation and mould and thus appears particularly suitable for properties with solid walls. The limited research carried out so far indicates that in comparison to gas central heating running costs could be up to 60% lower and that associated CO2 emissions some 50 to 80%. (see Recommendations) Modelling Fuel Poverty The Centre for Sustainable Energy and Bristol University have developed a small area Fuel Poverty Indicator to predict the number and proportion of households in fuel poverty for every electoral ward in England. The model is based on Census data and “weighted” using data from the English Housing Condition Survey. A sample output is shown below although it should be noted that the model gives much more precise data than shown here.
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Fig 14. Output from Fuel Poverty Indicator (CSE/ Bristol University) Modelling Fuel Poverty in Wales The Centre for Sustainable Energy (CSE) has recently submitted a report to the Welsh Assembly estimating the extent of fuel poverty in Wales for 1997/98. This research utilises a variety of data sources including the Welsh House Condition Survey, English House Condition Survey, the Family Income Survey and Family Resources Survey. This report will give fuel poverty estimates for each unitary authority. The Assembly intends to publish this report in the near future (probably April). This is likely to give the most accurate figures to date for fuel poverty in Wales. Modelling Fuel Poverty in Ceredigion A Welsh Small Area Fuel Poverty Indicator, similar to the English version, is due to be produced later this year by CSE. This will provide predicted fuel poverty figures for electoral divisions in Wales. This model will show the degree of fuel poverty in Ceredigion at the electoral ward and sub-ward level. This will give a greater understanding of the extent and distribution of fuel poverty and allow targeting of specific areas. With the understanding of the types of houses and household types likely to suffer fuel poverty the identification of fuel poor households and “hard to heat� properties will be greatly enhanced and the resources to combat energy inefficiency and fuel poverty can be utilised to maximum effect.
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Conclusions The data presented in the audit show that gas central heating is highly energy efficient and the current fuel cost is lower than all other fuels. Areas deprived of access to mains gas are more likely to suffer fuel poverty. Groups most vulnerable to fuel poverty are residents of social housing (LA and housing associations), the elderly and lone parents. Generally fuel poverty is likely to occur where dwellings are rented (due to poor insulation and heating systems) and where residents are in receipt of means tested benefits (due to low income). Solid wall dwellings have a much greater energy requirement than cavity wall filled dwellings
Social housing
Receiving benefit
No mains gas
Fig 15 Indicator of Fuel poverty in Ceredigion The diagram indicates the profile of the likely sufferer of fuel poverty in Ceredigion. Numbers can be assigned to the Venn diagram, 3,666 households in social housing and 23,680 households with no mains gas. For receiving benefit of 3,490 households claiming housing benefit and probably an additional 1,210 claiming council tax benefit can be considered as a minimum but there are other benefit recipients as yet unquantified. Whilst it is possible to predict that the most likely to suffer fuel poverty are in all three groups it is unknown to what degree the three groups overlap. This could be an area of further study. Where the resident is in all three groups above and the dwelling has solid walls both high domestic energy consumption and fuel poverty is most likely to occur and should be the target area for energy efficiency measures. HEES, whilst being a useful tool for tackling fuel poverty is not sufficient to cover the needs of the fuel poor and should not be the only tool for reducing the domestic energy consumption in Ceredigion. Recommendations 28
The Isle of Lewes currently has an innovative scheme where DTI Clear Skies grants for renewable energy are supplemented with additional local authority grants. The aim of this project is to demonstrate that renewable energy is viable and can make a significant contribution to individual homeowners in the area. A similar grant scheme could be established in Ceredigion to make additional payments for energy efficiency measures – particularly where fossil fuel heating systems are replaced with renewable fuel systems such as wood pellet stoves.
References / Glossary / Links DWLAS – Digest of Welsh Local Area Statistics WHCS – Welsh House Condition Survey WHS – Welsh Housing Statistics ONS – Office of Nation Statistics ODPM – Office of the Deputy Prime Minister MWEA – Mid Wales Energy Agency http://www.est.org.uk/ http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/consumers/fuel_poverty/ready_reckoner.pdf http://www.saveenergy.co.uk/renewables/documents/groundsource.pdf http://www.eaga.co.uk/ http://www.heatproject.co.uk Alternative Measures for HEES (2002) National Energy Services Ltd Benefits from the Home Energy Efficiency Scheme in Wales 2002-2003, WAG Energy Efficiency Best Practise Guide - Central Heating System Specification 2002 – EST Hard to Heat Homes. Mid Wales Energy Agency HECA report 2003 –04 Ceredigion County Council Fresh Air Heating - David Stephens, Tir Gaia Solar House, Abbey Cwm Hir Lane, Rhayader, LD6 5DY. Tel. 01597 810929
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Energy Supply Networks
Gas distribution network Access to mains gas in Ceredigion is unavailable to many households and businesses due to the limited coverage of the high-pressure mains. Cardigan and Lampeter are supplied by gas mains from south Wales. Aberystwyth, Commins Coch, Bow Street and Talybont are supplied by a main from north of the county. Coverage in at Aberystwyth does not extend to the Glanyafon Industrial Estate. There has been some very limited extension of coverage to some new housing developments where private developers have connected to the nearby mains supply but a significant increase in the coverage is very unlikely due to low density of population limiting the amount of potential customers relative to the costs of development of the supply network.
Electricity Network The electrical system in England and Wales is made up of the high voltage grid with largescale generator connections providing power to users through GSPs to the distribution network. Distribution systems have evolved to meet the load demand placed upon them in a given area. In relatively low population density areas rural areas the network has a relatively low capability to carry load and accept generation output. To date renewable energy schemes, as relatively small generators (less than 100 MW) have been connected to the distribution network. The Distribution Network Operators are obliged to offer and allow grid connection to all who require it. However the cost of the work required to make the connection is the responsibility of the generator. Current state of the local network The local and regional electricity network was initially designed as a distribution network and not designed to receive local generation. The network control of local renewable generation on a local level is a balancing act of supply and demand. If all local renewables were operating at maximum capacity then the supply of some generators to the local network would need to turned off. Although this has not happened yet, due to the constraints of the local network it remains a possibility. The electricity network in Ceredigion is covered by two Distribution Network Operators (DNOs), SP Transmission and Distribution (SP Manweb) covering the north of the county and Western Power Distribution to the south. The electricity network consists of the distribution network of 240 – 400v, 11 kV, 33 kV, and 132 kV lines. The transmission grid consists of 275 kV and 400 kV lines. The county is fed by two 132kv lines from the south, bringing electricity from Swansea. One connects to Aberystwyth the other connects to Ponterwyd. In the Ceredigion area of the WPD network there is a dual 132 kV line that runs to Lampeter and Llanarth and then into the SP MANWEB region with the remainder of this area reliant on a 33 KV infrastructure. In the north of the county there is some capacity for more wind farms but if development of a large scale wind farm within the Nant y Moch area occurs (area identified by the WAG for potential development) then the proposed 132kv loop between Ponterwyd and Aberystwyth would be required to allow flow in two directions. In the WPD distribution area the line to Tregaron is only 33kv, leaving the area around and to the north a weak area. Further large-scale renewables development in this area would 30
require major reinforcement of the network back to the Carmarthen area. If several new large scale wind farms were developed this could require connection to the 400kv transmission network from Newtown The network is increasingly weak in areas close to the border between the two DNOs with some areas only having single-phase lines thus constraining the development of smallscale renewables in this area. SP MANWEB region A study of the electricity network in the SP Manweb region of Wales carried out for the DTI’s New and Renewable Energy programme study examined the voltage, fault level and power flow limitations of this part of the Welsh distribution network. The study concluded that there were high fault levels along the north Wales coast, from Bangor to Deeside and down to Wrexham and voltage constraints in the Aberystwyth, Machynlleth, Wrexham and Ffestiniog regions. In addition, as is likely to be the case on most networks, there exist reverse power flow limitations in the 132 kV network. The assessment highlighted areas of network with a clear need for significant reinforcement in order to accommodate the anticipated levels of generation after existing basic active management techniques were exhausted. Distribution network developments In a report for the WAG Scrivener (2004) concluded that there are two areas of the SP MANWEB region that will need development if the wind energy resource is to be exploited. These are the Mid Wales area and Denbigh Moor to the north. SP MANWEB has prepared plans for the progressive reinforcement of these networks. Network Requirements – Mid Wales Zone The network capacity in the Mid Wales area is limited. The network was developed to supply remote load centres or generation projects. Limitations therefore apply not only to the ability to export generation but also to the expansion of load. The NFFO generation connected to the network has pushed the ability to apply basic active management techniques to the limit of practicability. It has been anticipated that background load growth will lead to a reduced standard of security by 2009 and to ensure compliance with licence obligations, major reinforcement would be required by SP MANWEB. The proposed reinforcement scheme meets both generation and load requirements. The total level of distributed generation that might be expected to connect to the Mid Wales network by 2010 could be as high as 600 MW, with a further 300 MW in Western Power Distribution’s area linked to SP MANWEB’s network. To allow such development in an unconstrained fashion it would be essential to establish a new point of supply from the grid network in the mid Wales area. National Grid Transco have indicated that this connection is technically feasible. In parallel with establishing a new Grid Supply Point (GSP, where the National Grid ends and electricity is distributed via the local area network) it is proposed by SP MANWEB to substantially reinforce the 132kV network to allow the phased expansion of the network in anticipation of the increase in generation. The proposed reinforcements include construction of a new 132kV infrastructure between Legacy GSP, Rhydlydan, Aberystwyth, Machynlleth and Carno, the establishment and upgrading of 132/33kV transformers at Llandinam, Carno, Welshpool, Aberystwyth and Machynlleth and associated 33kV switchboard alterations. As the size of renewable energy schemes increases there is a need to consider grid connection for large-scale generation. Development of tidal and offshore wind generation will require considerable infrastructure development including grid substations. The 31
National Grid planning includes grid connection for large off-shore wind farm connections to the grid, some as large as 200 MW. For on shore wind farms connection needs to be considered in the context of the local network conditions and possible constraints in terms of power flow, voltage conditions or fault level excesses. For wind farms up to 100 MW, connection to the distribution network would be the first choice but where this maybe constrained the grid could be considered if local connection is possible. For wind farms in excess of 100 MW then probably the grid will be the only option to enable this sizeable power to flow to demand locations of an appropriate size. Grid connection will be more expensive than connection to the distribution network and the commercial relationship between the operator, the DNO and the National Grid will be different. It is considered that it will not be possible to accommodate the proposed 300 MW site at Tregaron, prior to the establishment of a proposed GSP. In the future if grid capacity is not expanded then the DNOs may require the potential to turn off large-scale generators. Potential for Community Renewable Energy Grid connected solar panels can be connected to 240 – 400v lines with inflow / outflow meters. They require protection for under voltage / over voltage and under frequency / over frequency events. Some small-scale renewables (max 50 kW) could be connected to a single phase line but this not an ideal situation and may cause imbalance within the system. Generally these will need to connect to the 3 phase 11 kV line. In the areas close to the DNO boundary this could involve considerable costs. Current connection costs are £12,000 per km thus a 5 mile distance to the 11kv line would cost £96,000. The maximum capacity to connect to the 11kv line is 500 kW, generation above this capacity would need to connect to the 33kv grid and incur higher connection costs Issues with small-scale renewables and the DNOs Small-scale renewables is a potential controversial issue with DNOs. Small-scale generation in scattered locations present problems with maintenance, as generators can be hard to turn off before working on the network. Due to safety considerations lines are short circuited to allow maintenance. However if this stops generators feeding the network there could be legal implications and health and safety issues. If there is a large increase in community and small-scale renewables there will need to be a complete review of the implications For the network operators the concentration of renewables together - e.g. all houses in estate have solar PV, can make these issues are much easier to deal with.
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References Discussions with SP Manweb Discussions with WPD. DTI New and Renewable Energy programme study: Modelling the Renewable Resource and the Electricity Network in North Wales: K/EL/00296/01/REP: URN 03/1299: Contractor EA Technology Scrivener, G. (2004) Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target. Appendix C, Connection Areas for Wind Energy in Wales – Grid Considerations. Report for the National Assembly for Wales
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Fig 1. A geo-schematic representation of the proposed Mid Wales reinforcement of the SP MANWEB area network. (reproduced from Scrivener, 2004) The schematic shows the existing network and the phasing of the reinforcement. The full network would allow additional capacity of 384 MW at winter maximum demand and normal system operating conditions. However under other loading and operating conditions it may be necessary to constrain generation. The exact capacity that can be connected will be subject to the location and capacity of the individual distributed generation connections.
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The Potential for Renewable Energy Development The Potential for Wind Turbine Development A report commissioned by Dyfed County Council (Taylor and Larke 1991) identified 76 potential wind farm sites in non-sensitive landscape areas in Ceredigion. For sites to be considered appropriate required the necessary wind speeds and support 10 to 29 turbines each rated at 250 kW. Installation of 13 turbines at each site would give an installed capacity of 247 MW and a potential generation of 650,000 MWh pa. The report also identified 1,928 sites for stand-alone turbines for individual farmhouses in Ceredigion. If such turbines were each of 10kW capacity this would represent an installed capacity of nearly 20 MW and could generate 50,000 MWh pa. With the aim of meeting the target of 4TWh to be produced by renewable energy by 2010 (as part of the UK government target of 10% electricity generation by renewables by 2010) Draft Technical Advise Note 8 (Tan 8) considering the environmental, technical and the network capacity constraints identified 5 areas where it considers wind farm development to be most appropriate. The Nant y Moch area, which lies mostly within Ceredigion, has been indicated as an appropriate area with a potential installed capacity of 100 MW. (see Fig 1.) The report Spatial Planning of Wind Turbine Development in Wales (2002) carried out a study based on a Geographic Information System (GIS) in which map-based data were compiled and analysed to produce maps relating to the production of wind energy in Wales. The strategic appraisal of opportunities for wind energy development used a rulebased model to compare the spatial distribution of different wind speeds with that of factors that may constrain the development of turbines, for physical or policy reasons. Datasets were processed to derive buffer areas around particular features such as transport infrastructure and urban areas or to take account of sensitivities about potential landscape impacts and visibility of the landscape from selected designations. Analysis of the potential for wind turbine development in Ceredigion was made from the above study. The data is derived from Scenario 2, with a threshold wind speed of 7ms-1 at 45 m above ground and coniferous forests not considered a constraint. The map was analysed using graphics software. Constraint factors considered were wind speed, gradient, land use, urban and built land, transport routes, land and marine designations and archaeology Constraints to turbine development include areas protected by conservation-related designations such as • Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) • Special Protection Areas (SPA) • Wetlands of International Importance (RAMSAR) • Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) • Heritage Coasts • Marine Nature Reserves (MNRs) • National Nature Reserves (NNRs) • National Parks • Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs)
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Fig 1 Map of the Nant y Moch area (from draft TAN 8, WAG)
36
Fig 2. Potential for Wind Turbine Development in Wales (reproduced from Spatial Planning of Wind Turbine Development in Wales (2002), Macaulay Land use Research Institute for CCW.
Map designations SENSITIVE Land under this designation relates to land inside a landscape related designation (e.g. National Park or AONB), land inside a RAMSAR, land inside a Biosphere, land in close proximity to a registered archaeological site, land inside a National Nature Reserve, land that is within both a PSAC (Potential Special Area of Conservation) and a SPA, land that is within both a SSSI and a SPA.
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NOT AVAILABLE Includes existing urban land, ancient woodlands, steep slopes (greater than 40°) and lakes and reservoirs. UNLIKELY Land unlikely to be available for turbine development comprises of land that comes into any of the following categories: broadleaf woodland, land in a scrub/orchard, in close proximity to an airfield or military training area, within 150 m of a main road, within 150 m of a railway, within 500 m of an urban area, land within an SSSI but not an SPA and land within an PSAC but not in a NNR. MODERATE Areas of moderate constraints Includes land where wind speed is greater than 7 ms-1 and has high visibility from National Parks and AONBs, or visible from a national trail. WEAK Areas of weak constraints are defined as land above the wind speed threshold with low visibility from National Parks and AONBs or agricultural grasslands / tilled land. NO CONSTRAINTS The land which is not classified by any of the preceding rules, which reflect constraints to development, allocated to one of two classes based upon the threshold wind speed is interpreted as being the most suitable for development, and subject to no restrictions (has none of the constraints listed). Therefore, such areas would represent the core areas, or priorities for further inspection and analyses.
Fig 1 and 2 below show the analysis of Scenario 2 of the study “Spatial Planning of Wind Turbine Development in Wales” (2002). For this scenario the mapping is based on wind speeds greater than or equal to 7 ms -1 at 45 m above ground level and coniferous forest is not considered a constraint to development. The analysis should be considered to be indicative of where further investigation would be merited and in practice specific anemometer readings would be needed to justify potential development. The analysis excludes conditions offshore although there is scope for development offshore of the Welsh coastline.
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Fig 3. Potential for Wind Turbine Development in Ceredigion
39
Fig 4. Potential for Wind Turbine Development in Ceredigion
40
Potential for Wind Turbine Development Sensitive Land not available
4% 42%
6%
3%
Settlements
0.3% 43%
Land unlikely to be available Moderate constraints Weak constraints
0.3%
No consraints w ind speed < 7m/s
2%
No consraints w ind speed > 7m/s
Fig 5. Analysis of Fig 3. Data relating to the above figure can be found in T11 of the Energy Tables. The area of no constraints with wind speed above the threshold is 6% of the Ceredigion area. This represents 64.7 km2 or 6,470 ha. Over a range of turbine density (4 - 9 MW/km2) the theoretical total development of this area this would give an installed capacity of between 258 and 582 MW, generate between 680 and 1,530 GWh per annum, make savings of between 445,000 and 1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 per annum and generate an estimated income of between £34 and £76 million per annum. Areas identified as with no constraints and above wind speed threshold are: • A linear corridor along the north east county border, including the Nant y Moch area, approximately from Pen Carreg Gopa to Yr Allt. • Cwmsymlog area • Bethania area • To the east and south of Tregaron • Some small areas in the Capel Cynon area and to the north of Llandysul For this analysis the threshold wind speed was 7 ms-1 and 45m above ground level. This indicates the prime sites with maximum potential. This does not rule out turbine development is areas of lower wind speeds. The wind speed mapping was based on a model with 1km x 1km resolution. This gives an average wind speed for a 1 km square and thus does not convey accurate enough data for specific site locations, particularly for single turbines where microclimate and topography could have profound effects on wind speed. Whilst the no constraints areas of wind speeds above the 7 ms-1 threshold indicates potential areas for commercial wind farms, it does not rule out turbine development in areas with no constraints below the threshold. Miller, et al (2002) Spatial Planning of Wind Turbine Developments in Wales. Macaulay Land use Research Institute for CCW.
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Potential for Hydro Generation in Ceredigion Data relating to the potential for hydro generation in Ceredigion is sparse, dated, difficult to obtain and arguablely unreliable. It has not been possible to obtain one of the few relevant reports â&#x20AC;&#x153;Small scale hydro generation in Walesâ&#x20AC;? - University of Salford (1980) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; however some detail is known. A survey of the Ystwyth (Taylor and Larke, 1991) Altechnica using sites selected from a 1.23,000 map and a computer model utilising the base flow of the river indicates 23 possible sites for small scale generation that would have a payback period of less than seven years. The authors estimated a potential of 4.3 MW capacity producing 13,000 MWh per year. Surveys carried out by the University of Salford (1980, 1989) suggest 12 potential sites on the Rheidol with a potential capacity of 2.5 MW, 20 potential sites on the Teifi with a potential capacity of 3.2 MW and 1 site on the Aeron with a potential capacity of 0.03 MW.
Fig 1. Potential for Hydro generation in Wales (reproduced from Strategic Study of Renewable Energy Resources in Wales, 2001) Due to the advancements of computer technology since the above reports modern mapping techniques are likely to give a much more realistic assessment of potential hydro generation. A new mapping of the Ceredigion area is an essential area for further study.
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Potential for Energy Crops The recent change to Single Farm Payment rather than production subsidies offers a potential opportunity for farm diversification into energy crop production. Research at IGER is currently assessing the yields of Willow Short Rotation Coppice at a range of altitudes. Likely yields are in the range of 8 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 12 tonnes pa. Willow growing is suitable for arable land and improved pastures. Specialist machinery is required for planting but could be utilised via a machinery ring thus reducing initial investment costs. The breeding of Miscanthus is also under investigation at IGER. Miscanthus is energy crop that could potentially be grown in Ceredigion. The plant is harvested annually after a 3year establishment period. Estimated yield range in Ceredigion ranges from 6t DM ha on poor land (subject to drought or flooding) up to 12t DM ha on good land. As a C4 grass Miscanthus has a high N-use efficiency and thus the nutrient requirement in established crops is not likely to exceed 75 kg/ha P and 100 kg/ha K on soils with nutrient reserves at normal levels for arable crops. The crop has no requirement for pesticides although herbicides have been used during establishment periods. . The potential area of land suitable for the growing of energy crops on farmland in Ceredigion has not defined (see recommendations).
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Conclusions The data for local energy consumption is extremely limited and on some occasions conflicting. An important knowledge gap is the quantities of the different types of delivered (non-mains) domestic heating fuels. Residents are supplied by businesses from both within and outside the county who do not generally collect data on a county-wide basis and regard such information as commercially sensitive. Data relating to the potential for hydro generation is sparse, dated, conflicting and as such, unreliable. The targets to reduce CO2 emissions are challenging and will require substantial resources and careful planning to meet them The predicted growth in the Ceredigion population and increasing energy consumption in most sectors effectively doubles the annual CO2 reduction requirement. The planned new housing developments in Ceredigion could result in a large increase in energy consumption but also presents an opportunity to maximise domestic energy efficiency and define new characteristics in local architecture and housing. Domestic energy consumption is the largest energy use sector in Ceredigion (56% of total consumption, 72 % when transport is not included). Targeted measures could have considerable impact and resources should be focused in this area Apart from transport, most energy use is building-related with space and water heating being the major energy consuming tasks. Therefore a major factor in reducing domestic energy consumption (the sector of greatest consumption in Ceredigion) is the design and planning of housing development, from the building materials and design of individual dwellings to the layout of plots, housing estates and the energy services created within and around such development. Due to the nature of the Ceredigion housing stock and the lack of access to mains gas for most of the county the available grants to combat fuel poverty are inadequate. Social housing is very energy inefficient. Recent rises in fuel prices and predicted further increases will increase fuel poverty in Ceredigion. Although fuel poverty is arguably a social problem pursuit of its elimination helps to identify some of the most energy inefficient dwellings, thus in the attempt to reduce overall energy consumption the greatest savings will come from treating the worst properties. The economics of energy saving show that value for money is greatest in treating the most energy inefficient dwellings e.g. installing loft insulation where there was none (0 – 200 mm) – cost per kWh saved is 1p whereas topping up loft insulation (100-200 mm) the cost per kWh saved is 10.3p. For the first measure the cost of saving 1 tonne of CO2 is £30 whilst the in the later the cost is £330 per tonne of CO2 saved. Arguably such energy efficiency measures should be put in place regardless of income but targeting fuel poverty reduction is likely to maximise the use of financial resources to reduce energy consumption. The recent change from production-based grants to the Single Farm Payment scheme represents opportunity for farm diversification. With infrastructure development, business support and continued research biomass crops could represent a significant economic crop for Ceredigion. The enhanced use of locally produced biomass fuels would create rural employment and bring sustainable economic and social benefits and the environmental benefits of emissions reductions. 44
The features of energy use in Ceredigion include relatively low industrial and commercial consumption, the lack of access to mains gas for the majority of the county and a high proportion of old, solid walled and detached housing leading to high domestic energy consumption. Over 49% of the total energy consumption is for domestic heating. Whilst the renewable electricity generation accounts for most of the county’s electricity demand very little of the heating requirement is met by renewable fuels. Whilst energy efficiency insulation measures give a significant reduction in cost, consumption and emissions, to reduce domestic emissions by 60% would require a significant change in the domestic heating fuel mix. Measures could include • Replacement of fossil fuel heating with locally produced biomass fuel • In home generation via use of solar PV, solar water heating and micro-scale domestic wind • Energy efficient use of electricity for heating via heat pumps • District heating
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Recommendations •
That the Ceredigion County Council accepts the international targets of 60% reduction in greenhouse gases from 1990 levels by 2050 and agree to work in partnership to reach these targets at a county level.
•
That Ceredigion County Council accept, on principle, the Energy Audit and the annual targets for CO2 reduction until amended in the light of further data.
•
There should be an annual or biannual Energy Audit. This to include a review of progress towards targets.
•
A new County Council Energy Policy should be created, including a commitment to the international targets. This should occur after consultation of governmental and non-governmental organisations, businesses and local consultation via the local media.
•
Policies designed to ensure progress towards targets should be included in all strategies and relevant policies
•
Ceredigion County Council should negotiate a new electricity supply contract to obtain 100% electricity from renewable energy sources. Whilst the use of renewable electricity via various energy companies is not included in the audit calculations its use must be seen as beneficial in the economics of renewable energy development and in public awareness raising.
•
The targets for CO2 reduction are the responsibility of all. Considerable effort should be put into raising awareness of our individual and collective responsibility and encourage the adoption of the targets by the people of Ceredigion. Businesses, public bodies and individuals should be encouraged to audit their energy use and define their own personal targets related to the 2050 targets. Support should be available to help define energy efficiency and renewable energy solutions to allow these plans to be put into practise.
•
Most energy use is associated with buildings. A Building Forum of architects, building companies and other property developers and the local planning officers and building regulations officers is immediately pressing. All of these groups can influence the energy efficiency of new buildings and a local requirement for all new buildings to incorporate maximum energy efficiency and renewable energy generation is essential. The planning department should become the torchbearer for sustainable development, particularly in the area of new building. The forum should establish the aim that every home should be an “eco home”, that every new building is designed to make a 60% reduction in energy consumption from a predefined benchmark.
•
Additional grants for combating fuel poverty. The Isle of Lewes currently has an innovative scheme where DTI Clear Skies grants for renewable energy are supplemented with additional local authority grants. The aim of this project is to demonstrate that renewable energy is viable and can make a significant contribution to individual homeowners in the area. A similar grant scheme could be established in Ceredigion to make additional payments for energy efficiency 46
measures – particularly where fossil fuel heating systems are replaced with renewable fuel systems such as wood pellet stoves. •
Pilot project for Fresh Air Heating. With particular reference to no gas access and solid walled houses where no cavity wall insulation is possible and in the light of the recommendations of the Alternatives for HEES report (NES, 2002) it recommended that a pilot project be developed using Fresh Air Heating systems in Local Authority housing. This is an innovative heating system that is appropriate for the housing stock of Ceredigion. It has been developed locally and results so far indicate that fuel costs in old, poorly insulated houses can be reduced to less than those of government-required standards of new build properties and can compete favourably with mains gas. The pilot project would give quantitative results of the energy saving, cost saving and health benefits of this heating system.
•
Community Consultation on Sustainable Development. The Sustainability Strategy for Ceredigion is due for review. It is recommended that the review includes an extensive consultation of local residents and includes questions and feedback relating to CO2 reduction targets.
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Development of a wood fuel co-op / forum. Better organisation, distribution and promotion of wood fuel could substantially increase domestic wood fuel use and aid development of dependable supply chains.
Further studies •
The study of greenhouse gas emissions other than CO2 is beyond the scope of this study but should be considered a vital area of further work.
•
It is recommended that a survey of domestic fuel use in Ceredigion be carried out. This could be a telephone survey, carried out door to door or could be incorporated within other surveys.
•
An industrial and service sector fuel use survey would facilitate strategic planning of renewable energy development particularly in the identification of high heating loads for optimal location of potential CHP development.
•
An assessment of hydro potential in Ceredigion. This would be a mapping exercise that can be carried out at relatively low cost by local consultants.
•
Reporting of the potential for renewable energy at the community / village level. The reports would assess potential, and gather local energy consumption data to facilitate strategic planning of renewable energy development. It is envisaged that the report be compiled by a team of researchers targeting a particular community. Reporting could be carried out at the electoral ward level (44 wards). Whilst some work would be desk based (e.g. wind speed data, hydro potential, forestry, farm wastes) the local data gathering, the reporting process and presentation of reports to the communities would create an interface with ideal awareness raising opportunities. The reporting process could be combined with targeted information and advice on energy efficiency and grants for community renewable energy. A fuel use survey (above) could be included within the community reporting process.
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Whilst the energy audit did not cover transport issues in depth, transport accounts for 21% of energy consumption. Due to the total dependence upon fossil fuels and the rising prices of oil and LPG a study of transport in Ceredigion should investigate the current and future impacts of consumption of transport energy in Ceredigion and the potential for more sustainable future transport systems.
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Energy crops have the potential to provide heat, electricity generation and transport fuels. Research is required to define the areas suitable for growing a variety of energy crops on farmland, assess economic potential, and identify infrastructure requirements and potential constraints.
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The impacts of climate change could have profound affect on the lives of Ceredigion residents. An early assessment of potential impacts would identify particular problems and facilitate planning to mitigate deleterious impacts.
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References UK Energy Consumption Tables (2004) DTI www.dti.gov.uk/energy/inform/energy_consumption/table.shtml
Directory of Welsh Local Area Statistics (2004) http://www.wales.gov.uk/keypubstatisticsforwales/content/publication/compendia/2004/dwlas2004/dwlas2004-e.htm
Stats Wales WAG http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/ The Living Planet Report 2004 www.panda.org.uk
Strategic Study of Renewable Energy Resources in Wales (2001) SEL for WAG Plas Crug Renewable Energy Feasibility Study (1998) Dulas for Ceredigion County Council HECA report 2003 –2004 Ceredigion County Council DTI (2003) Energy White Paper: Our Energy Future – creating a low carbon economy Welsh Assembly Government (2002), Planning Policy Wales MIPPS D/01/04 July 2004 Planning Policy Wales (2002) WAG Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target (2004) Technical Advice Note (TAN 8: Renewable Energy) Draft (2004) Welsh House Condition Survey 1997-98 Welsh Housing Statistics, Stats Wales Domestic Energy Factfile (2003) Building Research Establishment Alternative Measures for HEES (2002) National Energy Services Ltd Benefits from the Home Energy Efficiency Scheme in Wales 2002-2003, WAG Energy Efficiency Best Practise Guide - Central Heating System Specification 2002 – Energy Saving Trust. Hard to Heat Homes Mid Wales Energy Agency HECA report 2003 –04 Ceredigion County Council
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Baseline study of renewable energy installations in Powys and the Dyfi Valley. CAT Fresh Air Heating - David Stephens, Tir Gaia Solar House, Abbey Cwm Hir Lane, Rhayader, LD6 5DY. Tel. 01597 810929 DTI New and Renewable Energy programme study: Modelling the Renewable Resource and the Electricity Network in North Wales: EA Technology Scrivener, G. (2004) Facilitating Planning for Renewable Energy in Wales: Meeting the Target. Appendix C, Connection Areas for Wind Energy in Wales â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Grid Considerations. Report for the National Assembly for Wales
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Glossary Ktoe
Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent
Mtoe
Million tonnes oil equivalent
DUKES GSP
Digest of UK Energy Statistics Grid Supply Point. A point where the National Grid ends and electricity is distributed via the local area network. Home Energy Conservation Act Home Energy Efficiency Scheme Digest of Welsh Local Area Statistics Mid Wales Energy Agency Office of the Deputy Prime Minister Office of Nation Statistics Welsh Housing Statistics Welsh House Condition Survey
HECA HEES DWLAS MWEA ODPM ONS WHS WHCS
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Glossary of energy units UNITS OF POWER
A Watt is a unit of power.
Watts (W), Kilowatts (kW), Megawatts (MW)
Kilowatt = 1000 W, Megawatt = 1000 kW Commonly seen as ratings of appliances (such as a 100W light bulb or 3kW gas fire), or generating capacity of energy technologies (such as a 2MW wind turbine)
UNITS OF ENERGY
Energy = power x time.
Kilowatt-hour (kWh) Megawatt-hour (MWh) Gigawatt-hour (GWh)
Thus a kilowatt-hour is the energy of a 1kW device running for 1 hour or a 100W device running for 10 hours. Megawatt-hour = 1000 kWh, Gigawatt-hour = 1000 MWh Commonly used to show energy consumption (e.g. an average home would use about 4000 – 4500 kWh of electricity per year, sales of gas to the whole of Cornwall amounted to 3095 GWh in 2001) or to show how much energy would be produced by an energy technology.
UNITS – GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Unit used to express the carbon content of greenhouse gas emissions that enables easy comparison of different greenhouse gases with different carbon content.
Tonnes of Carbon (tC)
One tonne of carbon is equivalent to 3.7 tonnes of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas. In the UK we are responsible for about 10 tonnes of carbon dioxide (or 2.7 tonnes of carbon) emissions per capita per year (twice the global average).
Source: Action Today for a Sustainable Tomorrow – The Energy Strategy for Cornwall, July 2004 (p.90)
Links http://www.mwea.org.uk/ http://www.csep.co.uk/downloads/cornwall_action_plan_full.pdf http://www.est.org.uk/ http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/consumers/fuel_poverty/ready_reckoner.pdf http://www.saveenergy.co.uk/renewables/documents/groundsource.pdf http://www.eaga.co.uk/ http://www.heatproject.co.uk
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Energy Audit – Notes for Energy Tables The Energy Tables are available on CD Rom on request from Ymlaen Ceredigion. T1. Totals by fuels. In the absence of direct data the study uses several sets of data to estimate the energy consumption of Ceredigion in the domestic, industrial, service and transport sectors. Two tables are shown: Table A. uses the latest UK data from DUKES, DTI and determines Ceredigion’s share on the basis of population as a percentage of UK population. Whilst this proportionate share cannot be considered as finely tuned to the local situation it does indicate something of Ceredigion’s part in UK energy consumption and gives averages to compare other data to. Table B utilises Regional Consumption data from the DTI for gas and electricity use. (Energy Trends, 2003, 2004. DTI). The electricity consumption data is used as proxy data to estimate the scale of Ceredigion Industrial and Commercial sector (not all businesses have access to or use gas but all will use electricity). Electricity consumption is 59% of the UK proportion figure (T1a) thus solid fuel and petroleum are adjusted to 59% of the UK proportion figures. Separate Industrial and Service totals were derived by a split in the ratio 64:36 (UK ratio). The table uses domestic energy consumption based on HECA reporting by Ceredigion County Council. This reporting gives a base figure for Ceredigion for 1997 (by which progress towards energy efficiency improvement targets are measured) and a domestic heating fuel mix. It is believed that the basis for this fuel mix came from the Welsh House Condition Survey 1998. The HECA domestic energy base figure (with adjustments due to efficiency measures 1997 – 2004) is 36% higher than the UK proportion figure reflecting the factors that have a direct influence on energy efficiency, such as built form, age or heating profiles of the stock. Domestic consumption of electricity and gas (DTI regional) differs markedly from the figures derived from the HECA data suggesting the HECA fuel mix data is erroneous or out of date. Due to there being many suppliers of coal, heating oil and LPG both inside and outside the county and due to commercially confidential nature of the amount traded by such suppliers very little data exists relating to the relative useage of such fuels. It is likely that the figure derived for LPG use is an underestimate. Domestic consumption of solid fuel and petroleum was determined by subtracting the regional gas and electricity figures and the LPG total from the new HECA base figure and the remainder apportioned in relation to the HECA fuel mix for oil and solid fuel. In the absence of data regarding end users the estimated LPG consumption in placed in the domestic row. Road transport data has been determined from DWLAS (see Sheet T7 transport) to give a figure for petroleum consumption and the UK proportion figure used for electricity consumption (rail transport).
T2. Totals by Sector The table shows energy use from primary sources. Differences from fuel end use are due to energy used in the generation / production, transportation and distribution of fuels. 53
T3. Totals by End Use The table shows UK Energy consumption by end use (excluding transport). Figures for Ceredigion are derived from percentages of UK data.
T4. Current Renewables The table lists renewable energy generation operating or likely to become operational in 2005. Data for anaerobic digestion at the Aberystwyth Water Treatment Works is limited. Recent discussions with Hyder indicate the surplus gas is less than that estimated in the Plas Crug study but no figures for actual usage have been given.
T5. Proposed Renewables Table lists known proposed / planned renewable energy generation
T6. Footprint Table shows determination of the Total Ecological Footprint and the Energy Footprint of Ceredigion. This is determined on a per person basis. Data source - The Living Planet Report 2004, WWF. www.panda.org.
T7. Transport Ceredigion data derived from DWLAS 2004. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions calculated ate used in further calculations (e.g. Table 1).
T8. Carbon Reduction Targets Table takes as its starting point that Ceredigion energy consumption is 78.9% of its UK share by population. Ceredigion emissions levels from 1990 onwards are derived from UK data using this percentage. Renewables development in Ceredigion is utilised to define CO2 balance for each year beyond 1990. Growth is defined by regression of energy consumption and thus follows the UK trends in the growth of energy consumption. This can be considered as a factor that includes population and household growth and national growth in energy consumption. Population growth in Ceredigion is projected using population data from Census data 1971 – 2001. Note if population growth is determined from only 1991 and 2001 data this gives a greater annual growth factor and greater 2050 population. The Carbon reduction targets graph shows the effect of growth in consumption at present rate and the effect of population increase without additional energy consumption growth. These two lines can be considered as a “business as usual” scenario. The carbon reduction targets table gives annual reductions (with and without growth factors) required to meet the 60% reduction target by 2050 and the more ambitious possibility of 60% reduction by 2020. Examples of meeting targets totally by either wind or biomass CHP are given. Examples are chosen for their scale, i.e. fitting solar panels to every house would not meet target. 54
T9. Carbon Dioxide Calculator Insert numbers into yellow column. Note that columns E and F are hidden with font colour the same as background. Change font colour to alter and adjust. Job creation is based on a job multiplier factor of 10 jobs for every MW installed capacity. The total value of energy generation is not given but may be derived using current values. The ROC value is given as an indicator of a value for carbon dioxide emissions currently set at ÂŁ30 per MWh but can be adjusted to current trading value. The model does not account for embodied energy in materials or energy consumed in installation, production or harvesting.
T10. Fuel Poverty Data from Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act 2000, a Fuel Poverty Commitment for Wales (2003). Based on Welsh Housing Condition Survey 1997-98. Table determines, on a population basis only, the number of fuel poor households in Ceredigion. See Fuel Poverty Report for further details
T11. Wind Turbine Potential The data is derived from Scenario 2 (See Wind Potential Map) of the report Spatial Planning of Wind Turbine Development in Wales (2002) CCW for WAG). The map was analysed using graphics software.
T12. Potential for Biomass A theoretical total sustainable yield from the Ceredigion forested area was calculated using incident radiation data (Cardiff) using the methodology of the Powys Energy Audit (2003) Yield utilising data from Woodfuel Resource Wales (FC) is also calculated and this figure is used in subsequent calculations. Energy crops data regarding establishment and yields are from IGER. CHP is assumed to have an efficiency of 85% with 30% electricity generation and 55% heat generation.
T13. LPG use Estimate only - limited data available â&#x20AC;&#x201C; recommend further study
T14 Domestic fuel mix Uses UK data (DUKES) and data for Ceredigion derived from Table 1 Totals by Fuels. Calculates and compares UK and Ceredigion domestic energy consumption in fuel types and in end use. Calculates CO2 per Ceredigion household.
T15. Domestic Wood Use The table uses data from the Baseline Study of Renewable Energy Installations in Powys and the Dyfi Valley (2002) CAT. This is a unique data set from a telephone survey of wood fuel use in Dyfi Valley. As part of the Dyfi area is in Ceredigion the data has been assumed to apply for Ceredigion and extrapolated for the Ceredigion population. Assumptions are 1 That HECA Data is correct 55
2 That wood fuel systems in Ceredigion are in the same proportion as the Dyfi valley e.g. 57% open fires, 38% woodstoves etc 3 The same proportion of woodstoves heat water (50%) 4 That where coal and wood are used together the mix is 50:50
T16. Public Service Data from Ceredigion County Council
T17. Constants Contains constants used in calculations
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