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Total Subs. Q3 2015
2G Subscribers
3G Subscribers
4G Subscribers
MVNOs
450 MHz
850 MHz
900 MHz
1500 MHz
1800 MHz
2100 MHz
2300 MHz
Total MHz
37,810,700
1,915,900
35,894,800
-
-
-
-
-
-
15 MHz
15 MHz
-
30 MHz
-
3
-
15 MHz
-
-
20 MHz
-
-
35 MHz
270,000
270,000 (incl. MVNO subs)
26,452,000
2,997,000
21,855,000
1,600,000
-
-
10 MHz
-
-
25 MHz
15 MHz
-
50 MHz
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
10 MHz
-
-
-
-
10 MHz
-
3
10 MHz
-
-
35 MHz
-
15 MHz
64 MHz
124 MHz
2,000,000
-
-
MVNO*
10 MHz
-
15 MHz
15 MHz
-
40 MHz
90,600 18,465,000
90,600 (incl MVNO subs.) 43,000
16,422,000
(0 MHz)
* An MVNO does not own spectrum
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www.yozzo.com 450 MHz TOT 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
850 MHz CAT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
900 MHz TRUE 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2025
License ends 2030
850 MHz DTAC 10 MHz‐BTO Ends 20182018 BTO ends
900 MHz JAS 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
850 MHz TRUE | 168 | NTT MVNO = No Spectrum
License ends 2030
1500 MHz TOT 35 MHz‐Bandwidth
1500 MHz CHEVRON 28 MHz‐Bandwidth
1800 MHz TRUE 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz TRUE 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2300 MHz TOT 4G 64 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2033
License ends 2027
License ends 2025
1800 MHz AIS 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz DTAC 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2033
License ends 2027
1800 MHz CAT 20 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz AIS 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2018
License ends 2027
1800 MHz DTAC 25 MHz‐BTO
2100 MHz TOT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
BTO ends 2018
License ends 2025
2600 MHz MCOT 48 MHz‐Bandwidth
2600 MHz PRD 24 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz Mojo3G iKool i-mobile MVNOs = No Spectrum
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www.yozzo.com 450 MHz TOT 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
850 MHz (4G) CAT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
900 MHz TRUE 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2025
License ends 2030
850 MHz DTAC 10 MHz‐BTO Ends 20182018 BTO ends
900 MHz JAS 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
1800 MHz TRUE 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz TRUE 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2300 MHz TOT 4G 64 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2033
License ends 2027
License ends 2025
1800 MHz AIS 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz DTAC 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2300 MHz AIS MVNO = No Spectrum
License ends 2033
License ends 2027
Possible MVNO 2016
1800 MHz (4G) CAT 20 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz AIS 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2300 MHz MVNE/IoT/MVNOs MVNO = No Spectrum
License ends 2018
License ends 2027
Possible MVNO’s 2016
850 MHz TESCO, i-mobile, CTH MVNOs = No Spectrum
1800 MHz DTAC 25 MHz‐BTO
2100 MHz TOT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
Possible MVNO’s 2016
BTO ends 2018
License ends 2025
1800 MHz
2100 MHz Mojo3G | iKool MVNOs = No Spectrum
850 MHz TRUE | 168 | NTT MVNO = No Spectrum
License ends 2030
1500 MHz TOT 35 MHz‐Bandwidth
1500 MHz CHEVRON 28 MHz‐Bandwidth
DTAC MVNO = No Spectrum
2600 MHz MCOT 48 MHz‐Bandwidth
2600 MHz PRD 24 MHz‐Bandwidth
Possible MVNO 2016 2100 MHz
AIS MVNO = No Spectrum
Possible MVNO 2016 www.yozzo.com
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Out of AIS's 37.8 million subscribers, 10.5 million use its 2G 900MHz services. Of those, 1 million are still in the 900MHz network and the remaining 9.5 million are on the Advanced Wireless Network (AWN) but roam with AIS's 2G network. AIS is giving away 3G/4G smartphones to its 10.5 million 3G customers still using 2G phones and expect at least half its customers on the 900MHz network to migrate to its 3G network before end of February 2016 AIS could decide to allocate 5MHz out of the 15MHz on its new 1800MHz spectrum to serve its remaining (2G 900MHz) subscribers. AIS is also in talks to lease 2G base stations from TOT to serve its 2G customers
1800 MHz AIS 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz AIS 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2033
License ends 2027
2100 MHz TOT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2300 MHz TOT 4G 64 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2025
License ends 2025
2100 MHz AIS
2300 MHz AIS
MVNO = No Spectrum
MVNO = No Spectrum
State telecom TOT Plc may select AIS to be its strategic partner in providing mobile broadband service on its network. AIS will construct a mobile network for TOT, and in return be allowed to rent up to 80% of TOT's 2100MHz network until 2025. The two parties are also in talks about potential partnerships on TOTs 2300MHz spectra AIS plans to launch commercial 4G service on the 1800-MHz spectrum and 3G and 4G services on TOT's 2100-MHz spectrum.
"We're ready to promote adoption of 3G and 4G aggressively, but the focus remains on 3G" Somchai Lertsutiwong, CEO AIS
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CAT Telecom has apparently been given the green light by the regulator NBTC to upgrade its existing 3G network on the 850MHz spectrum to 4G True Move, through its subsidiary BFKT, will invest and handle the 4G network upgrade for CAT and in return be allowed to rent up to 80% of the state telecom's 850MHz network until 2025. Col Sanpachai said CAT and True would have to modify the details of existing contracts including the network capacity use quota before seeking the CAT board's approval. CAT expect to launch the 4G service on the 850MHz network by the 3rd quarter of 2016.
However, a recent report by the State Audit Commission under the Office of the Auditor General into True/CAT’s controversial 850MHz 3G setup has identified at least THB 45,852 billion of damages as well as a number of un-accounted cell sites. A committee had been set up to identify individuals at CAT responsible and further disciplinary action, civil lawsuits and criminal lawsuits may be taken.
850 MHz (4G) CAT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
1800 MHz (4G) CAT 20 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2025
License ends 2018
850 MHz DTAC 10 MHz‐BTO Ends 20182018 BTO ends
1800 MHz DTAC 25 MHz‐BTO
850 MHz TRUE | 168 | NTT MVNO = No Spectrum
BTO ends 2018 1800 MHz
DTAC MVNO = No Spectrum
850 MHz TESCO, i-mobile, CTH MVNOs = No Spectrum
900 MHz JAS 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
Possible MVNO’s 2016
License ends 2030
CAT awarded its bandwidth on the 1800MHz to concession holders, including 50MHz to DTAC. DTAC currently uses only 25MHz of that. CAT later allocated 5MHz of DTAC's idle 25MHz to the NBTC for auctioning, so DTAC now has 20MHz remaining of the idle bandwidth. If approved by the cabinet CAT and DTAC could jointly upgrade the idle 20MHz bandwidth on the 1800MHz spectrum to provide 4G service using a deal similar to the True-BFKT-CAT model. DTAC's failure to win a 900MHz license gives CAT more bargaining power in the partnership talks
Jasmine Mobile Broadband, new holder of a 900MHz license, has approached CAT on leasing 1,000 towers to offer cellular service.
"The upgrade should allow us to accommodate skyrocketing mobile data traffic and increase our revenue" Col Sanpachai Huvanandana, President CAT Telecom
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Before the auctions the NBTC permitted DTAC to use 15 MHz on the 1800 MHz spectrum for 4G service, thereby increasing DTAC's 4G network bandwidth from 5 MHz on the 2100MHz to a combined 20 MHz Being under a concession, expanding the 850MHz and 1800MHz networks, comes with a concession fee of 30% versus the 5% regulatory fee for a license. As the 850MHz and 1800MHz concessions expires in 2018, depreciation expenses will surge. We therefore believe DTAC's primary concentration in 2016 will be on expanding its 2100MHz for nationwide coverage (currently covering Bangkok and 40 provinces) and instead boosting the 1800MHz capacity, mainly in urban areas. DTAC said it will add 2,200 1800MHz 4G cell sites in major provinces by early 2016 and expand 4G via its 2100MHz spectrum into all provinces by midyear.
850 MHz DTAC 10 MHz‐BTO Ends 2018 2018 BTO ends
1800 MHz DTAC 25 MHz‐BTO
2100 MHz DTAC 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
BTO ends 2018
License ends 2027
DTAC plans to double its 4G subscriber base to 4.5 million end of 2016. Aggressive promotional campaigns and creative service bundling will be offering to attract customers.
1800 MHz (4G) CAT 20 MHz‐Bandwidth
If DTAC start to see customers churn to either True or AIS it could start a price war.
License ends 2018
1800 MHz
DTAC MVNO = No Spectrum
DTAC has 20MHz of idle bandwidth. If approved by the cabinet CAT and DTAC could jointly upgrade the idle 20MHz bandwidth on the 1800MHz spectrum to provide 4G service using a deal similar to the True-BFKT-CAT model.
DTAC could become a MVNO on CAT’s 1800MHz
CEO, Lars Norling said DTAC would focus on digital ecosystems, mobile payments and machine-to-machine communications in 2016 Q3 2015 DTAC had a combined 23,553 3G-sites (2100MHz) and 3,446 4G-sites (1800MHz).
"You will see DTAC fight like you've never seen before" Lars Norling, CEO DTAC
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Newcomer JAS Mobile Broadband’s 900MHz license, marks the entry of a 4th operator to the market.
900 MHz JAS 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
Jasmine Mobile Broadband is a wholly owned subsidiary of Jasmine International Plc (JAS). The company is targeting 2 million subscribers in its first year, rising to 5 million subscribers in 3 years, by tapping into 2 million household, who are subscribers of JAS's flagship fixed broadband Internet service operator Triple T Broadband. The company is aiming to capture AIS's 10 million users 2G users. It will not invest in its own 2G network, but will lease the 2G networks of state telecoms to provide 2G 900MHz service and has reached a preliminary deal with CAT Telecom to lease 1,000 telecom towers to provide its service.
License ends 2030
JAS mobile project having 15,000 4G base stations in 2016, able of accommodating 10 million subscribers.
1800 MHz (4G) CAT 20 MHz‐Bandwidth
It will use its existing network of 3BB customerservice shops to support its 4G service and say it has trained staff to operate the service
License ends 2018
1800 MHz
JAS MVNO = No Spectrum
JAS has lined up THB 75 billion from a consortium of banks led by Bangkok Bank, while the equipment vendor, China's Huawei Technologies have extended THB 25 billion in financing for equipment procurement.
JAS could become a MVNO on CAT’s 1800MHz
JAS will not roam with its rivals but with TOT and CAT. Jasmine Mobile said it might have to resort to a pricing strategy from time to time but will not subsidize handsets
It has also talked with TOT for tower rents but TOT’s dispute with AIS over tower ownership has stalled the negotiation progress.
"Jasmine Mobile could acquire 2 million subscribers next year, enough to break even. It will turn a profit in the third year where it is expected to reach 5 million subscriber" Pete Bodharamik, CEO of Jasmine International
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450 MHz TOT 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
1500 MHz TOT 35 MHz‐Bandwidth
NBTC gave TOT the green light to upgrade its existing unused 2400MHz spectrum to provide 4G service for 10 years. Saying it would help TOT create a new revenue stream to offset vanished concession revenue AIS has approached TOT with a deal to construct a mobile network for TOT, and in return be allowed to rent up to 80% of TOT's 2100MHz network until 2025. This would effectively add TOT’s 15MHz of spectrum to AIS’ own 15MHz and allow TOT’s small handful of customers to roam onto AIS. TOT has 5,400 base stations to AIS’s 25,000 on 2100MHz.
2100 MHz TOT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2300 MHz TOT 4G 64 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2025
License ends 2025
2100 MHz Mojo3G | iKool MVNOs = No Spectrum
2300 MHz
2100 MHz
AIS (or True) MVNO = No Spectrum
450/1500/2100/2300
TOT 20% Bandwidth
2300 MHz
AIS
MVNE/IoT/MVNOs
MVNO = No Spectrum
MVNO = No Spectrum
TOT could partner with a MVNE to utilize all its spectrum better
True and Jasmine Mobile are interested in leasing TOT's infrastructure to provide 900MHz service. Similarly to AIS, True is also interested to be TOT's partner to offer 3G service on TOT's 2100MHz spectrum. We expect TOT to sign an agreement with a MVNE platform provider to maximize the utilization of its spectrum resources to improve revenue via new service providers, MVNOs and Internet of Things in relation to the governments digital economy project.
"TOT will have the right to use the 2400 MHz spectrum to operate wireless broadband service until 2025 without an operating license" Takorn Tantasith, Secretary-general NBTC
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850 MHz CAT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
900 MHz TRUE 10 MHz‐Bandwidth
1800 MHz TRUE 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz TRUE 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz TOT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
License ends 2025
License ends 2030
License ends 2033
License ends 2027
License ends 2025
850 MHz TRUE MVNO = No Spectrum
• TRUE will allocate 2.5MHz on its 900MHz for 2G, • 850MHz and 2100MHz will be used for 3G • 32.5MHz on the 900MHz, 1800MHz and 2100MHz will be allocated for 4G
TRUE is second only to TOT regarding most bandwidth in Thailand, and it has the best spectrum mix of high and low band between all operators. TRUE will use this opportunity to move ahead of DTAC and compete with AIS for first place. However it comes with a risk, as DTACs customers might not churn to TRUE but instead to AIS or to newcomer JAS. Winning a 900MHz license gives TRUE the opportunity to gain a quick share in the large 2G market, if it can manage to setup the 2G before the competition True is interested in leasing TOT's infrastructure to provide 900MHz service. Similarly it is also interested to be TOT's partner to offer 3G service on TOT's 2100MHz
2100 MHz TRUE or AIS MVNO = No Spectrum
A report by the State Audit Commission under the Office of the Auditor General into True/CAT’s controversial 850MHz 3G setup could become issues for TRUE later in 2016. As telephony moves from voice to demand of high speed data, TRUE stands very solid, not only in regards of bandwidth and spectrum mix but also able to provide solid bundle offers with the other subsidies under the TRUE umbrella. Once its spectrum and bandwidth has been allocated to 2G, 3G and 4G - TRUE could open up for MVNOs to maximize revenue and get to its target of 34% market share faster.
"True now has a 20% market share. We set a target to increase it to 34% over the next five years" Suphachai Chearavanont , CEO of TRUE
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6
MVNO’S OPERATING ON CAT AND TOT
HOST OPERATOR
MVNO’s
0
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MVNO’S LAUNCHED ON AIS, DTAC, AND TRUE IN 3 YEARS
Despite the license terms stating the license holder has to provide min. 10% capacity to MVNOs, the operators have avoided MVNOs for more than 3 years
HOST OPERATOR
MVNO’s
900 MHz TRUE 0 MVNOs
1800 MHz TRUE 0 MVNOs
2100 MHz TRUE 0 MVNOs
Must provide 10% capacity to MVNO
Must provide 10% capacity to MVNO
Must provide 10% capacity to MVNO
900 MHz JAS 0 MVNOs
1800 MHz AIS 0 MVNOs
2100 MHz AIS 0 MVNOs
Must provide 10% capacity to MVNO
Must provide 10% capacity to MVNO
Must provide 10% capacity to MVNO
2100 MHz DTAC 0 MVNOs Must provide 10% capacity to MVNO 850 MHz CAT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth
2100 MHz TOT 15 MHz‐Bandwidth www.yozzo.com
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2100MHz 70%
2100MHz TOT 90%
The NBTC has issued 36 MVNO licenses so far since the introduction of MVNOs in Thailand 6 years ago. However only 6 MVNOs have launched, with no one showing promising signs so far. Combined with TOT and CATâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s own customers, the MVNOs have only managed to obtain < 100,000 subscribers MVNOs are intended to support innovation, bridge digital divide, and contribute to the growth in the ICT sector to ensure the achievement of the broader industry and national economic objectives
900MHz 80%
1800MHz 80%
The reluctance and missing efforts of the telecom network operators to negotiate and launch MVNOs, represents a failure in normal market forces, which warrants intervention from the NBTC. Currently the telecom network operators act as gatekeepers to the essential radio network access needed by MVNOs. Where we would anticipate it is the NBTC, which should retain the gatekeeper role, and prevent the operators exercising such power in the market
â&#x20AC;&#x153;2016 will see the operators bring in MVNOs on their networks as partners in their battle to gain market share and reduce network churn" Allan Rasmussen, Managing Director Yozzo
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www.yozzo.com 2300 MHz (*TDD-LTE)
TOT 64 MHz 2300 MHz
2400 MHz MCOT 48 MHz Expires in 2015
2600 MHz (*TDD-LTE & FDD-LTE) 2500 MHz
2536 MHz
The government has agreed with the digital economy panel's resolution to set aside other telecommunications spectra for 4G. Some portions of the 2300 MHz and 2600 MHz spectra may be options. The ICT Ministry and TOT are studying the possibility of bringing the unused portion of TOT's 2300 MHz spectrum up for auction in order to increase the amount of bandwidth MCOT Plc and the Public Relations Department (PRD) holds 128 MHz and 26 MHz, respectively, of the 2600 MHz spectrum. MCOT earlier allowed IBC to use the band for multichannel multipoint distribution service (MMDS) to provide a pay-TV service until 2009.
PRD 2584 MHz
2592 MHz
2608 MHz
In 2010 MCOT, agreed to let Playwork use the band to offer a pay-TV and wireless broadband service for 15 years. It also signed a contract with CAT Telecom to provide the network for the service. The now defunct, National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) declined to permit Playwork to test the service, since the spectrum was allocated for telecom purposes, not broadcasting. MCOT has agreed to return its unused 60 MHz of bandwidth out of 144 MHz on the 2600 MHz spectrum. The state-run broadcaster will receive THB 100 million in compensation. NBTC told Bangkok Post the sum of THB 100 million in compensation had been calculated on the potential revenue MCOT expected to gain during the concession period. The Public Relations Department (PRD), has taken the NBTC to the Central Administrative Court for reclaiming its spectrum for reallocation.
â&#x20AC;&#x153;We expect to see the utilization of these spectrums soon as Thailand moves towards enabling Internet of Things (IoT) and service related to the digital economy program" Allan Rasmussen, Managing Director Yozzo
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Yozzo is a Telecom Consulting firm, specializing in Information and Communications Technology (ICT).
What we do We assist public and private sector clients in their decision making through market insights, experience and technical skills. Our clients includes: Governments, Telecom Regulators, Telecom operators, MVNOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s, Device manufacturers, Software & Service providers, Media and Broadcasting companies.
How we do it We approach consultancy engagements from a commercial perspective, with the aim of adding significant value to your business by identifying and pursuing: growth opportunities, create products, services, and businesses that improve the efficiency, productivity, and profitability of your business.
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Copyright © 2015 Yozzo Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
DISCLAIMER Some statements made in this material are forward-looking statements with the relevant assumptions, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “continue” “plan” or other similar words. The statements are based on our assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and executives/staff do not control and cannot guarantee the relevance, timeliness, or accuracy of these statements.