Scenario Evaluation

2.0 Scenario Evauation

As the problem statement described, Singapore and Johor both encounter climate problems which lead to a prolonged hydro-meteorology drought in Johor River Basin (JBS) (Tan et al., 2019) and frequent flash flooding in Singapore (Chow et al., 2016). Additionally, the JBS is a primary water source of Singapore’s water supply, thus, the drought of Johor does not merely affect domestically, as well in Singapore. Besides, these pernicious urban issues lead Singapore to quicken the progress of technology enhancement (Jamshed, 2019), for the sake of promoting the aim of water self-sufficiency and facilitating climate-independency water sources. Therefore, technological advancement and drought in Johor, two uncertain factors, are utilized to generate a scenario matrix (Fig. 1).

Figure1. Scenario Matrix

2.1 Strategic Implications

Water Crisis in Singapore

2.2 Quantitative Assessments

FIgure 2. Quantitative Asessement

Based on the quantitative assessment and analysis of opportunities and risks for four scenarios, Scenario 1 - Better Together is selected to be further investigated and given policy recommendations. The quantitative assessment’s iniatives is divided into three main pillars, economic, environmental, and social aspects which are connected to Singapore’s current society and water shortage. Also, the strategic implication analysis considers the scenarios’ plots and their advantages and risks. Combining the results of two categories of analysis, scenario one is the most desirable outcome for future Singapore.

Although the first scenario will take a long-term to make progress, it is the quickest method to achieve water sustainability and water dependency by the expiration year of the Water Agreement which is a goal of Singapore (PUB, 2020). At the same time, Johor can avoid drought by climate change as much as possible with technological advancement.