Global Design Trend Forecast by Zihan Zhao

Global Design Trend Forecast five key international design trends

Zihan Zhao ZHA15468010 MA Design Management and Cultures Unit_Global Design Futures Louise Healy Dr Nicky Ryan University of the Arts London June 2016

CONTENTS Introduction From ‘Buy for Me’ to ‘Buy for We’ Reciprocity: Thoughts on Identity and Cultural Integration The Future of Sense No Gender and No Age Money = data = money Reference list

Introduction Design plays an active role in the innovations and disruptions that related to politics, societies, economics, technology, and environments. Forecasting the future helps us to understand innovations and disruptions related to these fields, and make the compelling and innovative design solutions for the toughest business issues. To forecast, we must be curious and keenly observant of new and emerging patterns and anomalies in cultural shifts (Raymond, 2010). The developing process of an idea is like an upside down myriad, there are Innovators and Early adopters leading the trends, then following by Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards (Ryan and Gross, 2010). The influencers include: the media, business leaders, governments, social networks and cultural institutions (Keys and Malnight, 2016). Have the view on the future and the implications for business and society is an essential skill for creative practices. Both Quantitive technics such as: The Delphi, a panel of experts to produce a forecast, Executive Opinions, Market research and Qualitative technics such as Econometric methods are utilised to build a point of view on future ('Forecasting', 2016). The appropriate abundance resources, tools, technics, and methodologies will help forecasters reach an innovative "accurate" (Ryan and Gross, 2010). I used 'The anatomy of a trend cartogram'(Raymond, 2010) in my first stage to gather inspiration, then combining with a 'Consumer Trend Canvas' (trendwatching, 2016) and 'Trend Funnel' (Raymond, 2010) to understand the trend. In this essay, I will introduce five main trends that analysed from the primary and secondary research. Each trend is divided into four sections: Introduction and Description of the Trend, answering what is the futures? What is the impact? Who are the Innovators? Drivers of the trend, where the basic needs and desires address. Evidence and inspirations, exams how business is applying this trend. Trend Consequences, suggests the potential and the risk of the innovation.

The debate and analyses will not only about trends which related to sustainable consumption, circular economy, digital disruption, nation identity, finance and new business models but also discuss this predictable future in a cultural, economical and social context. However, the investigation of these five trends have limitations, as Raymond (2010) suggests, a trend can be an idea, philosophy or even political movement, some of the five trend is not profound enough due to word limitation. Further research needs to be conducted such as the discussion about the prospect on self-identity in the shift of cultural integration.

From ‘Buy for Me’ to ‘Buy for We’ Introduction and Description of the Trend ‘Take-make-consume-throw away’ as a production and consumption pattern has existed for some years. However, with the emergence of the idea of Circular Economy since the 1970s, a major transition of industrial production models is going to happen (‘Closing the Loop: New Circular Economy Package’, 2016). In the future, people will act more responsibly towards consumption and production. ‘Sustainable development’ will no longer be just buzzwords, but will become a standard business practice because small steps can have a significant impact (WGSN, 2016). Meanwhile, the consumer will be more responsive to a business’s purpose and the production process, to see if it is ethical. The custom design comes to life (Spaulding, 2016); people get exactly what they want, and they do not throw these costumed products away. By doing this, it is reducing the waste of production and enhancing the consumers’ preferences for the benefit of the society. Fig.1

Drivers of the trend This April, an article revealing the method of jeans production spread all over Chinese social media. The article, titled ‘Each Pair of Jeans You Wear is Destroying Our Future’, is informed by

Fig.2 A documentary of Workers in Jeans Factory in South China

a documentary filmed in Guangdong and conducted by a German environmental group (caijing, 2016). In fact, the investigation of and reporting on the jeans factory and underwear factory in southern China, which destroy the environment and endanger staff health, has continued (Muller, 2016). Although it may be an extreme reaction that we conclude that ‘jeans destroyed the future’, the phenomenon has value upon further reflection. In other words, behind the popularity on social media, the Chinese people have expectations of a responsible and environmental consumption for both human beings and the earth. As early as 2014, the G-star RAW announced a collaborative project, ‘Raw for the Oceans’, that involves retrieving plastic from our ocean shorelines and transforming it into denim (Rawfortheoceans, 2016). Another ecological manufacturer in the denim industry is Blackhorse Lane Ateliers. Their brand is emerging based on more sustainable and ethically produced clothing (Trotman, 2016). On their website, their declaration of ‘Think Global, Act Local’ is an appeal against fast fashion and overconsumption. Clearly, companies developing new denim fabrics, such as the German company Freitag, are offering alternative options. Freitag’s F-ABRIC denim combines hemp, linen and modal. When thrown on a compost heap, the material biodegrades completely in two months (Freitag.ch, 2016).

Fig.3 F-fabric Factory

Evidence and inspirations Furthermore, innovative uses of new energy and resources have come up due to our environmental conditions. The following examples show the drivers of change. Related to government planning, Norway is set to ban fossil fuel cars in 2025 (Mcdonald, 2016). In the fashion industry, materials and fabrics made from perishable foods are likely to increase as people become more concerned about food waste, as demonstrated by fabric companies such as Cocona (Fig.5. 2016) and Frabjous Fibers (WGSN, 2016). Lifestyle magazines talk about responsible travel (“think before go”) to reduce waste (Stylist, 2016). In terms of architecture, Ecocapsule (Fig.6. 2016) is a self-sufficient, independent housing that uses wind energy and solar power. Finally, product–service systems within the sharing economy are changing the game. These will improve eco-efficiency by a factor of four times or more (Bhamra and Hon, 2004). These innovative technologies allow us to look at Earth like never before. With a different perspective on nature, we will treat it as our partner, thinking before we purchase goods and producing more ethical goods.

Trend Consequences It is true that the shift from a linear to a circular economy will be tumultuous, requiring businesses, governments and consumers to work together in the system. In the future, as consumers grow eager for ‘transparency’, companies will need to adapt new business models to cater to the eco-conscious consumer.

Fig.5 Cocona Fabric clothing

Fig.4 F-fabric by Freitag

Fig.6 Ecocapsule, a new way of housing

Inspriations for the trend: From ‘Buy for Me’ to ‘Buy for We’

Environment Friendly brands are poping up

7 Faux Fur Shrimps

Reciprocity Introduction and Description of the Trend We ask ourselves from childhood, ‘Who am I?’ A discussion on self-identity is often associated with the country of one’s birth. At the same time, the meaning of ‘I’ no longer belongs to only the national culture shown on our passport. Because, we can scrutinise this world, meet people, make friends and build both virtual and physical communities with ease, such as travelling to another country or learning about cultures through Internet. The rise of globalisation promotes the concepts of multiracialism and multiculturalism, which impact the traditional ideas of national representation (WGSN, 2016). It is possible that we develop new aspects of selfidentity, cultural identity and national identity through high-level communication among internet or within cultural institutions.

Drivers of the trend In an era of data, what we perceive is much more than what we transmit. On the Internet, we communicate by the same language such as emoji and use expressions and symbols to establish resonance. Then, besides languages, what makes us unique on the Internet? How do we build our online identity? The video chat extends beyond time zones and geography, and China’s live-streaming sites are becoming a burgeoning cottage industry: people are sharing their everyday experiences on the live-streaming sites. All the relationships we are building stem from the desire for connection, whether it is local, global, virtual or physical. However, the globalised world offers us connected and shared cultures in which we can easily explore other cultures as well as create new subcultures. We are more easily ‘changed’.

Evidence and inspirations According to a 2016 BBC World Service poll, people are increasingly identifying themselves as global, rather than national, citizens. In the emerging economies, the trend is especially marked: 56% of those asked considered themselves a global citizen rather than a national one. However, in industrialised countries, it seems to be the opposite. For example, compared with 8

Fig.7

the 2001 results, Germany has fewer people who feel they are global citizens now (Grimley, 2016). In the United Kingdom, a referendum will be held on Thursday, 23 June 2016, to decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union. The social impact of the referendum may heighten the discussion about national identity and to what degree we should be ‘culturally united’ with others. It is time for us to ask ourselves whether it is possible for a national identity to cover everyone. Although this world still has borders, art and design will take a significant role in creating borderless, generating ideas and establishing a closer relationship between different parts of the world. In November 2015, the Toshiba Gallery of Japanese Art in the Victoria and Albert Museum reopened after a full redisplay and refurbishment (Vam.ac.uk, 2016). From an ensemble from Issey Miyake’s A/W 2015 collection to a Hello Kitty! rice cooker, the gallery displays the extraordinary craftsmanship and artistic wealth of Japan. Such updated cultural institutions will take responsibility for offering new ways to conduct projects that speak of place, past, histories and culture.

Trend Consequences Another context that should not be dismissed is the development of virtual reality. Through developing technology, the surreal, shared emotional viewing experience will create new possibilities for relationships between humans and humans and between humans and objects. These will not only build closer relationships between people and objects, but they will also remodel the narrative of cultural events and entertainments ('The Vision of 2018', 2016). As creatives, we can imagine developing more of these services to enhance the experiencing of different cultures and the building of reciprocal relationships, especially between East and West. 9

The Future of Sense Introduction and Description of the Trend In Aristotleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s theory of perception, the senses of the human body are divided into five types: sight, hearing, taste, smell and touch (Thomas, 1895). However, as technology increasingly provides in-depth research on biology and the human brain, researchers have found other human senses, such as the sense of balance and proprioception (Qingnian, 2015). As the world becomes more virtual, we will appreciate more sense perceptions that can be experienced physically. There are more and more brands using technology, such as Audi using VR and Burberry using Live Stream, to generate meaningful experiences that engage consumers (Audi, 2015)(Conti, 2016). Thus, the estrangement between the user and any product will be reduced. We will also design human-made sense perceptions for social good.

Drivers of the trend In the era of the digital within reality, the human body and the machine are in continuous integration. The border between the digital and the physical is blurring. It seems we are on the edge of a new type of duality as the online world finds its way off-screen and vice versa (Williams, 2016). The brain inside our head and the arm we raise is no different from the phone we hold every day. It seems that technology has become an integral part of our life, which makes our life part of that technology. Consumers need to adapt to a new lifestyle as soon as possible, such as autonomous cars and intelligent home systems. Enterprises have to face new opportunities and risks, and even creatives are likely to be challenged by artificial intelligence. People are expecting the immaterial to materialise. The online world is about to get a lot more real.

Evidence and inspirations A research project named the Institute for New Feeling (2016) is committed to the development of new ways of feeling, and ways of feeling new for well-being. Their work takes the form of

the Institute for New Feeling (2016)

The vest designed by Eagleman

Fig.8 Thync device

treatments, therapies, research studies and wellness products. Another example is Thync, a wearable device that can connect with an accompanying app, signal nerves on the head and neck to act on the brain’s adrenaline system. These nerves then activate the body’s natural state of energy or calm (Thync, 2016). These innovative devices generate feelings to our body as different sensory stimulations are providing new experiences. There are also designers thinking about connecting the senses for social good. Eagleman (2016) designed a vest that will help deaf and hearing-impaired people hear. The vest is connected with an app that picks up sounds and then ‘translates’ those sounds into a series of vibrations. This vest gives us a new way to help hearing impairments. Also, there are new experiences encouraging a new approach to interpreting artworks. Tate Sensorium (Tate, 2015) is an immersive display in which visitors can experience sounds, smells, tastes and physical forms inspired by the artworks, and through sophisticated measurement devices, they can record and review their physiological responses.

Trend Consequences In 2016, cultural institutions such as museums and galleries are going to further explore the human senses and may give us guidance based on our current mood. For example, a shopping experience may cater to your emotional state rather than what you need. Currently, innovative retail displays such as virtual dressing rooms (Fig 10)and interactive displays are teaching us how to communicate with objects; in the future, meaningful experiences will blur the border between digital and physical.

Fig. 10 Toshiba Virtual 3D Dressing Room (2015) Fig.9 "Don’t just look – smell, feel, and hear art" in Tate Sensorium

No Gender and No Age Introduction and Description of the Trend There is no time like the present for people to advocate for freedom and the right to follow their hearts. The tragedy of the Orlando, Florida, shooting raises the awareness of gun violence and caring for the LGBT community. The More Love and Less Hate campaign were everywhere (Dange, 2016). However, one can imagine that an even more fair and free world is coming. As no gender and no age trends create buzz, the fashion industry is turning over a new leaf: Brands such as 69 jeans, Not Equal and Muttonhead are producing gender nonconformist clothing. There may be more brands like these, and online shopping will no longer have categories divided into male and female. One can also imagine that senior models and influencers will pop up, leading the healthy way as a senior.

Fig.12 Valentino gender neutrality campaign (2016)

Fig.11 No gender, no age, no rules.

Evidence and inspirations From gender equality to supporting LGBT rights, Millennials and Generation Zers express themselves in uninhibited ways online. Showing and sharing what they care about is an integral part of their online identity. In 2005, more than 16 million users on Facebook changed their profile picture to one with the rainbow flag, celebrating the US Supreme Courtâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ruling on samesex marriage. Facebook states that when one user reacted with a new profile picture, it tended to have a domino effect among friends. The cultural implications of such an action being repeated en masse are seismic in changing social attitudes towards same-sex marriage. For example, other media such as YouTube and Twitter also took part in the gay rights celebration with hashtags, videos and playlists. In the fashion industry, classifying clothing by gender seems outdated. The gender stereotypes are broken. Gender-neutral campaigns by big brands such as Valentino and Maison Margiela are a reflection of the times, rejecting the view of masculinity versus femininity. 12

Trend Consequences Moreover, we are accepting not only the great gender blur but also the blur of old and young. In advertising, we see older models. In museums, we see an exhibition '100 Leading Ladies' featuring portraits of influential senior British women (Honey, 2016). Age is not a measurement anymore, but a state of mind. Seniors are following a positive lifestyle. The fitness centres are responding quickly by redesigning a softer lighting and non-key code security systems for patrons with poor eyesight (Bouchez, 2016). The elderly are also enthusiastic about having a new job. According to recent research, ‘20% of workers between 45 and 49 intend to work well beyond 70, up from 5% in that age bracket in 2005’ (WGSN, 2016). The statement ‘experience never gets old’ is from the movie Intern (2015). In fact, senior interns are possible in the future, albeit they may need a more flexible or shorter work time. With the shift, the traditional work model may adapt to a more open and easily attached environment, such as work online. Business culture and management culture may be challenged. These trends will affect consumer choices, and companies may pay more attention to how they communicate with elderly customers because they are more likely to buy into marketing and advertising than their younger counterparts (Hawksworth, 2015).

UAL is helping to raising the visibility of transgender and gender nonconforming people.

'100 Leading Ladies' Project by Nancy Honey

Fig.13 Maison Margiela Resort 2016

Money = data = money Drivers of the trend Before the currency has been introduced, we traded goods of same value to make a payment. Then we use the lightweight, portable, reliable paper currency note to purchase. Driven by the technology waves, digital currency is bringing us new forms of transactions. It allows the currency to travel easily and quickly. Copeland (2014) suggests, "With digital currency as the stream through which value flows, barriers to truly global trade are poised to fall."

Fig. 14

Evidence and inspirations The most dramatic emerging example of building a financial infrastructure outside of the purview and control of central banks may is Bitcoin (Copeland, 2014). A digital currency like Bitcoin, with the support of government regulations and more trading place to make it easy to use, has the potential to reach globally (Horowitz, 2014). Besides Bitcoin, there are many other forms of digital currency in the world. One example which is Alipay Programme (2016)is a payment service that allows you pay bills and transfer money quickly and safely, with that programme, you can also purchase financial planning products to gain more interests rather than deposit them in a traditional bank. Another example is M-Pesa (2016), which is a simple APP that can help people who do not have a bank account to make payments safely in African nations. This service also leads to a wide variety of businesses such as purchasing

travel insurance for animals being brought to market by farmers. A statistics shows that M-Pesa has already helped one-quarter of the Kenyan economy flows (Copeland, 2014). The author of 'the end of money' David Wolman (2015) also suggests that it is true that the evolution of currency may start from the developing economies, although the relevant technology was grew in the developed countries.

Trend Consequences The future of Financial industry must be connected with digital disruption. Big data is a term that means multiple things today; the technology is that coming to the financial market over last 5 to 10 years. It has created a huge disruption, in the data industries and business as a whole. Big data started as analysing data rest batch systems and they have been involved in being able to analyse real-time data and do complex analytics on streams of data. In that space, the financial industry may benefit the most. To better manage risk, to improve their trading model and better operate in the institutions. The big data will also help economists and businesses make more informed decisions by allowing them to process more data in a shorter period of time, in a much more rapid pace and a border scale. Human will still be empowered within the system; they will be able to take through the results of the analysis and make sure the prediction fits the model (Hirsch, 2016). The limitations of big data platform are not the technology side, the platforms are quite scalable and robust, these platforms are complexed operated and it is not easy to divide what you need put into and get out of the big data platform in order to adventure business.

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Global Design Trend Forecast five key international design trends

Zihan Zhao ZHA15468010 MA Design Management and Cultures Unit_Global Design Futures Louise Healy Dr Nicky Ryan University of the Arts London June 2016