research
Winter 2010/11
european Market Indicators
European rental cycles Offices
Brussels, Stockholm, Warsaw
London (City), London (West End) Paris, Moscow
Frankfurt, Geneva, Kiev, Munich, Prague, Vienna
Barcelona, Bucharest, Lisbon, Madrid Amsterdam, Budapest, Copenhagen, Dublin, Edinburgh, Milan
Logistics Barcelona, Budapest, Madrid Brussels, Bucharest, Copenhagen, Dublin, Lisbon Moscow Warsaw Frankfurt, Kiev, Munich, Prague
Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Geneva, London, Milan, Paris, Stockholm, Vienna
Shopping centres Barcelona, Bucharest, Budapest, Dublin, Lisbon, Madrid
Moscow Warsaw Brussels, Frankfurt, Kiev, Munich
Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Edinburgh, Geneva, London, Milan, Paris, Prague, Stockholm, Vienna
The Knight Frank wave depicts the current position of selected European centres with respect to their local prime rental cycle. As demand swells relative to supply and rents rise, centres move towards the crest of the wave. As demand ebbs and rental levels weaken, centres start to move down the wave towards the trough. Some markets will ride the wave more quickly than others. Similarly, some markets will tread water for periods of time or move only gently through the wave.
Winter 2010/11
european Market Indicators
Market monitor – Winter 2010/11
Offices
City Amsterdam
Prime rents (€/sq m/yr) 325 4
Logistics Prime rents Prime yields (€/sq m/yr) (%) 85 4 7.25 4
Prime yields (%) 6.00 4
Retail (shopping centres) Prime rents Prime yields (€/sq m/yr) (%) 1,200 4 5.75 4
Barcelona
234 6
6.00 4
72 6
7.75 4
528 6
Brussels
275 4
6.00 4
45 4
7.25 4
1,250 4
6.75 4 5.75 4
Bucharest
192 4
8.50 4
48 4
10.50 4
810 4
9.00 4
Budapest
240 4
7.50 4
54 4
9.00 4
900 4
7.25 4
Copenhagen
228 4
5.25 4
67 4
7.25 4
645 4
6.00 4
Dublin
376 4
7.25 4
75 6
9.00 4
4,000* 6
8.00 4
Edinburgh
346 4
6.00 4
90 4
6.75 4
2,242* 4
6.00 4
Frankfurt
408 4
5.00 4
70 4
7.00 4
1,800* 4
5.25 4
Geneva
613 4
5.00 4
132 4
6.75 4
766 4
5.50 4
Kiev
390 4
12.00 4
68 4
13.00 4
1,170 5
12.00 5
Lisbon
222 4
7.00 4
60 4
7.75 4
900 4
7.50 4
1,089(WE)/705(C) 5 4.00(WE)/5.25(C) 4
154 4
6.25 4
5,356* 4
5.50 4
72 6
7.75 4
540 6
6.75 4
London Madrid
348 6
5.75 4
Milan
480 4
5.75 6
50 4
7.75 4
650 4
6.25 4
Moscow
765 4
9.00 4
88 5
12.50 4
1,837 4
10.50 4
Munich
348 4
4.75 4
78 4
7.00 4
1,800* 4
5.25 4
Paris
750 5
4.75 6
52 4
7.00 4
2,000 6
5.00 4
Prague
246 4
6.75 6
45 4
8.50 6
840 6
6.75 4
Stockholm
458 5
5.00 6
95 4
7.00 4
800 4
5.75 4
Vienna
288 4
5.25 4
72 4
7.50 4
1,020 4
6.00 4
Warsaw
288 4
6.75 4
72 4
8.00 4
1,020 4
6.75 4
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Knight Frank
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Knight Frank
Figures 1 & 2 show averages of prime office rents and yields in the cities covered by this report, with markets weighted according to size and market maturity.
International Research
European Investment Team
European Valuations Team
Matthew Colbourne
Andrew Sim
Nick Powlesland
Senior Analyst
Partner, Head of European Investment
Partner, Head of European Valuations
+44 (0)20 7861 1238
+44 (0)20 7861 1193
+44 (0)20 7861 1283
matthew.colbourne@knightfrank.com
andrew.sim@knightfrank.com
nick.powlesland@knightfrank.com
www.KnightFrank.com Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.
2010
Winter
Autumn
Summer
Winter Spring
Spring
Summer
Autumn Winter
Summer
Winter
Spring
Autumn
Summer
Winter Spring
Summer Autumn
Winter
2005
Spring
Autumn
Winter
Autumn
4.0
Summer
350
Winter Spring
4.5
Autumn
400
Spring
5.0
Summer
450
Autumn Winter
5.5
Summer
500
Winter
6.0
Spring
550
Autumn
6.5
Summer
600
Winter Spring
7.0
Summer Autumn
%
650
Winter
European weighted average prime office yield
€ per sq m per annum
Spring
Figure 2
European weighted average prime office rent
Autumn
Figure 1
Autumn
Indicative prime yields, as quoted locally, based upon a hypothetical Grade A unit. Office rents are for prime city area Grade A space, 2,000 sq m. Shopping Centre rents are based on prime covered shopping malls, quoted on best position, 100 sq m units. Logistics rents are for prime industrial space of units over 5,000 sq m. The data above is provided for general reference purposes only. Local market conditions will vary. *Zoned/weighted figure. Arrows provide a broad indication of recent movements and the short-term outlook for prime rents and yields. London office data is quoted for the West End (WE) and City (C) submarkets.