Ukraine HorizonCapital

July 2015

Ukraine 2015:

Brains, Hands and Grains A ground-floor investment opportunity at the EU’s frontier

Invest in Ukraine? “…Next door to Russia there is a complicated place, but also more attractive

– it has a much better Finance Minister than anyone you can find in that part of the world…

Ukraine is an extremely attractive place to invest and I would look at that place as a place if you want to take some risk and you are investing in dollars, but there aren’t that many people investing in Ukraine, so you’re probably going to buy some things that are going to be relatively inexpensive” - David Rubinstein, Carlyle Group

"I stand ready. There are concrete investment ideas, for example in agriculture and infrastructure projects. I would put in $1 billion” - George Soros, Soros Fund Management

"Personally, I think that Ukraine is a good place to invest. I'm hopeful that Virgin would start doing business in Ukraine”

- Richard Branson, Virgin Group

Source: Reuters, Hromadske 2015

Why would respected, seasoned investors like Rubinstein, Soros or Branson be bullish about investing in Ukraine when the “bears” are much louder and more numerous?

The “bear� perspective on Ukraine is clear. The challenges faced by the country are known and well-documented by analysts and media throughout the world.

What is missing though, is a contrarian perspective, which, while recognizing the challenges and risks, also gives a voice to the compelling reasons to consider Ukraine today as an investment destination.

To that end, this presentation makes a bullish case for Ukraine.

Each crisis opens up opportunities, and the latter is what we have chosen to focus our attention upon.

For above all, what we see in 2015 in Ukraine is a historical, ground-floor investment opportunity.

The lost decades 1. A ground-floor opportunity now 2. Brains: #1 IT engineering force in CEE 3. Hands: lowest-cost manufacturing platform in Europe 4. Grains: the food basket of the world 5. Entry ticket: a 70% discount to ‌ Greek valuations

As USSR collapsed Ukraine had a reasonably good starting point‌ GDP per capita (PPP) in 1990, thousand USD

GDP per capital growth (PPP), indexed scale, 1995=100

1994

1996

Estonia

1998

2000

Latvia

2002

2004

Poland

2006

2008

2010

Slovakia

2012

2014

Ukraine Source: World Bank

A critical mass of active, tech-savvy civil society=relentless scrutiny Percent of population using internet, % “2014 saw the rise of selforganized public and a strong volunteer movement”

“Throughout this turbulent period, Ukrainian civil society stepped up to the plate, playing a key role in forming the new government’s policy priorities and providing critical services to the public” – USAID, 2015

A ground-floor opportunity Why this time is different and what makes us optimistic about Ukrainian economy now.

A critical perspective: ground-floor starting point…

Civil Society Organization Index in 2014, 1-7 scale, lower=stronger civil society +0.1

+0.4

0

-0.2

+0.1

Improvement vs. 2008

Source: Euromonitor, Internetlivestats, BBC, USAID

A critical mass of reformers and start of structural reforms

Macro: stabilization package with IMF tempered C/A deficit, UAH rate Current account balance, USD billion -0.9

-2.3 -1.5

0.8 -1.3

-1.5

-0.5

0.7 -1.0

-3.2 -6.0

-5.0

Hryvnia exchange rate, UAH per USD

Source: Dragon Capital, minfin.com.ua

26,5

16,2 11,8

21,1

13,0

Ukraine’s ranking in Ease of Doing Business, inversed scale An ambitious deregulation program has been launched, with over 70 initiatives, from scrapping a quarantine certificate for grain transportation, to liberalizing the land market, to simplifying the immigration rules for expats. Licensing for 26 business activities has been abolished and 16 regulations scrapped.

The Ministry of Economy estimates the program to gene-rate between $2.4 - $3.3 billion in savings for the business community and dramatically improve Ukraine’s standing in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Rating.

Source: World Bank, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukrain

A critical mass of reformers and start of structural reforms

Export champions – the growth engine and safest bet on UA economy Lviv 400km from Warsaw, 900km from Berlin 60% devaluation boosting cost competitiveness Manufacturing wages $1.2/hour, 2x lower than China

20x growth in IT exports in 10 years Exports only 49% of GDP vs 61% for CEE peers Share of EU exports from 20% to 35% in 5 years

6.5% exports CAGR between 2009-2014

0% duty on most EU exports Per capita exports of $1,540 still 3x lower than Poland

Sources: Ukrstat, NBU, EU DCFTA text, World Bank, the Economist, China Statistical Yearbook, www.worldatlas.com

Brains, Hands and Grains: three lasting, competitive advantages

1.

Brains

The â„–1 IT engineering force in CEE

2.

Hands

Lowest-cost manufacturing platform in Europe

3.

Grains

Largest black-soil bank in the world

Sustainable competitive advantages in IT, Manufacturing, Agriculture to drive an exports-fueled rebound

1.Brains:

â„–1 CEE IT engineering force Top math and science education, starting with primary school Results at the International Math Olympiad, global rank

Good Country Index: Science and Technology parameters reported to GDP, rank

1 China 2 US 6 Ukraine 11 Romania 13 Netherlands 16 Germany

1

Universitas 21, university research quality, rank

United Kingdom

1

US

9

Hungary

8

UK

13

Ukraine

14

Germany

15

Belgium

30

Hungary

26

United States

32

Poland

32

Poland

41

Ukraine

32 Czech Republic

38

Italy

42

Romania

39 India 45 France 59 Belgium

48

Romania

48

Indonesia

56

India

49

Turkey

115

Philippines

50

India

Source: International Mathematical Olympiad, Eurostat, Ukrstat 2014

Share of math, science and computing graduates, %

Source: goodcountry.org, Universitas 21

…and feeds abundant technical talent into the market Ukraine’s ranking in Ease of Doing Business, inversed scale

Average programmer salary, comparable skills, thousand USD per annum

Engineering Graduates per annum in European countries, thousand students

Source: World Economic Forum, Forbes, 2014, IVC, www.business-standard.com

Breakdown of Ukrainian service exports, 2007-2014 100%

6%

17%

100% IT outsourcing

80% 60%

64%

40% 20%

44%

Transportation

12%

Business services

27%

Other

12% 18%

0%

Already the

№1

exports category to United States

Source: Ukrainian Hi-Tech Initiative, Symphony-solutions, Gartner, Ukrstat

Over 100 global companies located software R&D in Ukraine

Samsung alone has over 1,000 engineers working on things like computer vision, information security, artificial intelligence, natural language processing (NLP), human computer interaction (HCI), computational intelligence and more

Ukraine has among the lowest living expenses in the world Prices of selected items in Kyiv, USD

250 14 12 10 5 4 3 2 1 0.5

One bedroom rent, month

Cost of living, including rent, global ranking (lower = cheaper)

India

Intercity train Kyiv-Lviv (500km)

125 123

Two courses in fancy restaurant

117 Ukraine

Dry-clean suit

112 105 97 96 58 21 1

Theater ticket Haircut Taxi trip A bowl of borscht Tomatoes, 1kg Milk, 1L

Source: numbeo.com

Pakistan Philippines Romania Hungary Poland China United States Switzerland

The beer and burgers are the cheapest in the world too :) Average price of a 330ml beer, USD 6,3

6,2

4,5 5,2 2,6

1,8

1,7

Source: Wall Street Journal, The Economist Big Mac Index – February 2015

Price of a Big Mac, USD 7,5

4,3 4,8

21,1 3,7

1,9 1,2

Select Ukrainian cities by population, thousand people

• •

70% urban population, concentrated mainly in and around large cities 2.6 million student population with 640,000 graduates each year Source: Ukrstat

Tech talent + cheap living + global outlook = thriving tech ecosystem

IT outsourcing is one of the perennial growth hope stories for Ukraine, drawing its inspiration from the Soviet tradition of science teaching, and the country’s plethora of scientific institutes that used to churn out rocket scientists. Under market conditions, the schools have switched to have switched to producing programmers – an estimated 16,000 new IT specialists graduate each year

The huge IT outsourcing sector feeds increasing number of risk-taking tech talent, with a cosmopolitan outlook, willing to strike on their own and launch globallyfocused tech startups. The low costs of living and progressive big-city culture, further add to a thriving tech ecosystem

E-commerce posted 5.5x growth for the last 7 years‌ E-commerce sales in Ukraine 2007-2014, USD million 28%

Drop in 2014 driven by large Hrivnya devaluation.

Growth in national currency continued to be very strong Source: Euromonitor, Horizon Capital

…and with plenty of upside ahead to catch up with peers …and with plenty of upside ahead to catch up with peers % of internet users in total population

100% UK

Netherlands

Sweden France

80%

Spain Poland

60%

Percent of online shoppers = 3x lower vs Poland, Italy; 4x vs UK, Germany

Italy Germany

40%

Share of ecommerce in total retail is just above 2%, 3-6x lower vs Western Europe

Ukraine

20% 0%

20% 40% 60% % of internet users shopping online

Only ~20% of Ukrainian internet users shop online (share doubled over 2 years)

80%

100% Source: internetlivestats.com, Euromonitor

•

Good education, a strong math and science legacy

•

Feeding abundant tech talent to the market – largest IT engineering force in CEE

•

Which led to a thriving IT outsourcing business, up 20x during last decade

•

Tech talent increasingly turning to startups, beyond outsourcing = increasing numbers of global software champions from Ukraine

2. Hands:

lowest-cost manufacturing platform in Europe Plenty of industries remain very dependent on labor cost Workers per unit of gross fixed capital stock in manufacturing

Hourly wages in manufacturing industry in select countries, USD

Electricity prices for industrial enterprise, USD cent/ kWh

Source: icrier.org for Emerging Markets, India example

Ideally positioned to be a manufacturing and trading platform Kilometers distance to select cities from Lviv

London Milan Berlin Budapest Warsaw 1,990 1,560 930 570 390

Lviv

Flight hours to select cities from Kyiv

NYC Beijing Dubai London Berlin Istanbul 10 9 5 3 2 2

Kyiv

In a world of tighter supply chains, faster product innovation cycles, Ukraine has a real chance to emerge as a manufacturing and trading hub at the frontier of EU, Middle East and Asia. A case in point, Western Ukraine emerged as home to a vibrant automotive spare-parts manufacturing cluster Source: www.worldatlas.com, www.travelmath.com

Proven by top global brands who localized production in Ukraine “The

production of Ukrainian workers can compete with the European level in terms of quality.

There's a new, highlyeducated generation of creative people who want to see their country strong. I'm an optimist�

- Dietmar Kung, Hugo Boss

Exports to EU rising strongly, marking fundamental shift in trade Exports split by destination, % Moving away from over-reliance on Russian market as exports to Europe grow. Signing of the DCFTA with the EU is expected to further accelerate the trend

50 45 40

38

35

32

30

40

38

48

38 34

34 35

30

35 27

26

25

27

18

20 15 2007

2008

2009

Russia & CIS

2010

2011 Europe

2012

2013

1Q 2015

2014

Other countries Source: Ukrstat

•

Demand for labor remains high, as many industries are still very labor intensive

•

Ukraine enjoys a very attractive location, at the intersection of the EU, Middle East, Asia

•

Signing of historical EU DCFTA to further boost attractiveness

•

The manufacturing labor costs are very competitive, even compared to China

•

Cost, advantageous FTAs and proximity to large markets position Ukraine as ideal manufacturing and trading platform

3. Grains: the food basket for the world Global demand, 1995-2024F, million tons

1 Wheat

2 Coarse grains

3 Oilseeds

Source: OECD

Ukraine: already an agro-powerhouse, share of global market rising Ukraine’s share of globalexports by commodity, %

1 Wheat

2 Coarse grains

3 Oilseeds

Source: OECD

Ukraine: already an agro-powerhouse, share of global market rising World’s leading positions in a number of markets №1 in sunflower oil

№4 in barley

№2 in grains

№6 in wheat

№3 in corn

№7 in soybean

№8 in poultry

Thriving agricultural exports to EU, Asia, CIS and Middle East

EU: $5.0 bn.

CIS: $2.6 bn.

Africa: $5.0 bn.

Asia: $6.6 bn.

Source: Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food

Value add

Industry moves up the value chain, further increasing margins

Grain trading

Value-added agri

Agri infrastructure

Farming

Grains -> Poultry and Eggs -> Farm Equipment example Cost advantage in grains enabled growth of eggs and poultry producers, which rely on grains for a large portion of costs.

Companies like MHP, Ovostar, Avangard have achieved global leading positions in these market segments. Further up the value chain, a thriving poultry and eggs industry, enabled growth of farm-equipment manufacturers e.g. Texna, which subsequently turned into global export champions, leveraging their Ukraine base.

Source: HCA

•

Global demand for food keeps rising

•

Ukraine is home to 1/3 of the most fertile soils on earth

•

Soils, location and scale warrant a lasting cost advantage for Ukrainian producers

•

The room for upside is still large, as further technologization will keep pushing the yields up

•

As the industry matures, it moves up the value chain, boosts profits, creating a thriving agricultural cluster

•

The Revolution of Dignity led to a paradigm shift in Ukrainian society, politics and inevitably – the economy

•

Young, technocratic government leading a bold, structural reforms agenda

•

Uncompromising, active, tech-savvy civil society warrants the change is lasting = point of no return

•

Sustainable competitive advantages in IT, Manufacturing, Agriculture open up attractive investment opportunities

•

Valuations are at historical lows = an ideal time to seize on the potential upside