AAAA Aftermarket Dashboard - A3 2023 by aaaa710

DASHBOARD Q3 2023

The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia Welcome to the Q3 2023 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA. This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.

We value your suggestions for improvement or feedback regarding content. Data sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, the ABS Motor Vehicle Census and BITRE

1. State of the Market

EV Sales & Growth

3. Connected Vehicles

1. State of the Market

Australian Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence

Business Confidence

80.6

89.8

( 0.7)

Westpac Melbourne Institute (Q3’ 23, vs. Q2’ 23) Consumer confidence remains low, declining marginally from the last quarter. This remains comparable to some of the lowest points seen during the COVID pandemic. We are however hopeful that consumer confidence will increase through the next quarter as the festive season approaches, and consumers are expected to indulge more and become more open to spending.

 

Fuel Prices

( 1.3)

Roy Morgan (Q3’ 23, vs. Q2’ 23) Business confidence fell in the third quarter, as businesses continued to grapple with rising production costs, continued supply chain disruptions, and reduced consumer demand within specific markets. While certain sectors showed improved performance, the prevailing economic uncertainty is influencing investment choices, hiring intentions, and general business sentiment.

$1.94

( 9.9c)

AiP - Ave weekly price (Q3’ 23, vs. Q2’ 23) Petrol prices have surged, with the average cost per litre up almost 10 cents compared to last quarter. The OPEC+ decision in July to extend oil production cuts by over a million barrels a day until the end of the year led to a decrease in supply, with prices remaining above $2.00 since mid-August (which is the highest since the start of the Ukraine-Russian war). Looking to the future, predictions indicate that price levels are likely to remain high into 2024.

New Vehicle Sales by Quarter The new vehicle sales market remains strong. While Q2 set a number of impressive sales records, Q3 has outperformed these, with a whopping 317,527 new vehicles sold to put it 16% higher than the previous quarter. This breaks the pattern of recent years, where Q2 typically led the way off the back of strong EOFY sales. Manufacturers have clearly been able to service the EOFY rush, and also continue the supply of vehicles into the second half of the year suggesting that supply chain issues are a thing of the past.

317,527

2023 sales volume in Q3

400,000 300,000

257,028 202,476

248,672

317,527 273,272

16%

200,000

Year-on-Year

100,000 0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022

Q1 Q2 Q3 2023

New Vehicle Sales By Marque

Toyota

Q3 vs Q2 Rank

Make

Q3 Volume

% Chng YoY

Q3 Share

Toyota

62,424

13%

20%

Mazda

24,796

3 2

Ford

23,022

36%

Kia

19,963

-4%

5 2

Hyundai

19,251

-3%

Toyota has completed its comeback, logging one in five of the vehicles sold this quarter, compared to 16% in Q2. The Toyota HiLux remains Toyota’s top seller, with 16,208 units sold this quarter.

6 1

16,115

72%

Looking at the rest of the top 10:

7 1

Mitsubishi

14,865

-21%

8 2

▪ Ford has made a statement by selling nearly 4,000 more vehicles than in Q2, leading it into 3rd position

Subaru

12,561

40%

9 3

Tesla

12,420

33%

▪ Tesla’s market share dropped this quarter despite clocking a 33% YoY increase

10 1

Isuzu Ute

11,984

43%

▪ MG keeps climbing towards the top 5 with more than 16,000 sales

TOTAL

317,527

16%

62,424 vehicles sold (13% YoY)

▪ Both Subaru and Isuzu Ute recorded strong 40%+ YoY increases, lifting Subaru two spots to 8th, and nudging Isuzu Ute into the top 10

2. EV Sales & Growth

Q3 2023 Passenger / LCV Sales By Fuel Type Vehicle Type

Passenger

SUV

Light Commercial

Total

Fuel Type

Q3 Volume

% Chng YoY

Q3 Share

Petrol

35,457

-9%

11%

Diesel

3,507

12%

Hybrid

9,976

58%

Electric

6,029

24%

PHEV

132

Petrol

110,024

17%

35%

Diesel

32,263

16%

10%

Hybrid

21,442

79%

Electric

16,560

130%

PHEV

3,079

104%

Petrol

7,781

15%

Diesel

59,225

19%

Electric

313%

Petrol

153,262

48%

Diesel

94,995

30%

Hybrid

31,418

72%

10%

Electric

22,651

87%

PHEV

3,211

95%

317,527

16%

This quarter, low and zero-emission vehicles experienced a significant increase in market share, hitting 18 percent of all vehicles sold.

Total EV Sales 22,651

In total, this means more than 57,280 new low or zeroemission vehicles were introduced to Australian roads, including 22,651 electric vehicles. This gives electric vehicles a 7% share of vehicles sold so far this year, rising to 10% of passenger vehicles and SUVs (which are the categories that have the most options available). At a brand level, Tesla continues to lead the EV market in terms of sales. However, OEMs such as MG and BYD are expanding their offerings, and other (mainly Chineseowned) brands are considering entering the market, which should further increase competition. Given growing consumer demand, increasing vehicle availability, and cheaper price-points, EV market share is expected to continue increasing in the months ahead.

2023 Most Affordable EVs The cost of electric vehicles remains a challenge for many potential buyers, sitting well above comparable ICE alternatives. We have however seen a significant change in 2023, with a number of competitively priced options coming into the market (or launching in the very near future). The key point (as can be seen below) is that this trend is largely being driven by newer entrants to the Australian market, led by Chinese-owned brands BYD, MG, and GWM. This highlights the different strategies being used by different brands, with other OEMs (such as Nissan and Fiat) looking to tap into their existing brand equity to pitch vehicles at a higher price point.

Cheapest EV in Australia BYD Dolphin $38,890

Either way, it’s clear that the next 12-24 months will see significant growth in the number of brands selling EVs in Australia, the number of models on offer, and the number of options at the ‘affordable’ end of the market.

$38.9K

$39.0K

$40.0K

BYD Dolphin

MG 4

GWM Ora

$45.0K

MG ZS EV

$48.0K

BYD Atto 3

$49.9K

$51.0K

$52.5K

BYD Seal

Nissan Leaf

Fiat 500e

Note: All prices exclude on-road costs

3. Connected Vehicles

Data Sharing By State Connected cars are rolling into the market at an ever-increasing rate, leveraging connectivity to automate a range of vehicle functions. While this can clearly offer benefits, it also raises concerns around privacy given the sharing of personal information or driving behaviour. Given this, how comfortable are Australian drivers with sharing vehicle information with 3rd parties like automotive workshops so they can schedule in services or diagnose faults and order in the necessary parts or equipment prior to the vehicle arriving? Overall, we can see that Australians are divided, with many still to take a position on this idea. NSW/ACT and SA/NT are the most willing to consider sharing data, while residents of QLD, VIC/TAS and WA are at this time more likely to err on the side of caution when it comes to sharing their vehicle data.

How confident are drivers in sharing vehicle performance data with an independent or chain workshop? Somewhat / Very Comfortable

28%

31%

Neither

33%

34%

38%

Somewhat / Very Uncomfortable

39%

35%

30%

NET

NSW / ACT

SA / NT

31%

30%

26%

21%

30%

31%

36%

41%

43%

QLD

VIC / TAS

Data Sharing By Generation We also see significant variation in the willingness of different age groups to share personal vehicle data with aftermarket workshops. The Fifth Quadrant Consumer Insights study revealed that while almost two in five Gen Z are comfortable sharing this information, this drops to just over 20% of Baby Boomers (with almost half of this segment uncomfortable with the idea). This variation is not surprising, given Gen Z is often referred to as the iGeneration. They are not only more digitally proficient, but also more used to exchanging personal information with 3rd parties. This suggests that as they take a greater level of responsibility for vehicle servicing and maintenance, the opportunities to tap into their vehicle information should continue to grow, ultimately becoming the norm.

How confident are drivers in sharing vehicle performance data with an independent or chain workshop? Somewhat / Very Comfortable

28%

Neither

33%

Somewhat / Very Uncomfortable

39% NET

32%

27%

33%

37%

30%

35%

37%

Gen Z

Gen Y

Gen X

37%

34%

22%

30%

47% Boomers

About AAAA

About Fifth Quadrant

The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.

With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.

For more information, please contact: For more information, please contact:

Lesley Yates Director of Government Relations and Advocacy Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA) Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC) 7-8 Bastow Place Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia +61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au

Ben Selwyn

Madelief Johnston

Director Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 ben@fifthquadrant.com.au

Account Executive Fifth Quadrant 0472 722 740 mjohnston@fifthquadrant.com.au

Level 6, 54 Miller St North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia +61 (2) 9927 3333