Dashboard Q4 2023
The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia
Welcome to the Q4 2023 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA.
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State of the Market
This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.
2
EV Sales & Growth
We value your suggestions for improvement or feedback regarding content.
3
Year in Review
Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, the ABS Motor Vehicle Census and BITRE.
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State of the Market
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Australian Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence
81.3
( 0.7)
Westpac Melbourne Institute (Q4’ 23, vs. Q3’ 23) Consumer confidence increased slightly at the back end of the year, but remained low through the festive period despite this time of year historically delivering more positive results.
While Q4 typically performs well, ongoing economic pressures from the cost-of-living crisis mean that the results remain some of the weakest recorded post-pandemic.
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Business Confidence
89.1
( 0.7)
Roy Morgan (Q4’ 23, vs. Q3’ 23)
Business confidence decreased in the fourth quarter, recording the 11th consecutive month in decline. This is the longest downward trend since 2010, with ongoing business concerns about the state of the Australian economy suggesting that this will persist into 2024 One slight positive within the quarterly results is that while November recorded a particularly weak (but historically consistent) score of 85.8, there was a slight recovery in December off the back of sales through the festive period.
Fuel Prices
$1.97
( 2.9c)
AiP - Ave weekly price (Q4’ 23, vs. Q3’ 23)
Petrol prices surged in Q3, and remained high in Q4, nudging $2 a litre as we closed out 2023. Multiple factors are acting in concern to drive this outcome, with ongoing high levels of global demand for petroleum products, and fluctuating exchange rates. Looking ahead, the volatile international market makes it difficult to predict prices for the new year, but experts anticipate they will remain high well into 2024.
New Vehicle Sales by Quarter The final quarter of 2023 saw an outstanding result, with 317,494 new vehicle sales recorded, resulting in an annual figure of just over 1.2 million new vehicles. This 17% YoY increase is driven by 25% growth in light commercial sales, along with 16% increases for both passenger vehicles and SUVs.
317,494
Unlike recent years, the Q4 figures are largely in line with the previous two quarters, despite Q2 historically outperforming others off the back of EOFY sales. Industry commentary suggests the main reason for this is that 2023 new vehicle sales are being buoyed by the fulfilment of historical orders as against new sales, suggesting we could see a significant correction in 2024. 400,000 300,000
272,077
251,403
233,691
2023 sales volume in Q4
317,494
270,299
17%
200,000
Year-on-Year
100,000 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial
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New Vehicle Sales By Marque Q4 vs Q3 Rank
Make
Q4 Volume
% Chng YoY
Q4 Share
1
Toyota
60,581
11%
19%
2 1
Ford
26,596
26%
8%
3 1
Mazda
24,788
14%
8%
4 1
Hyundai
18,225
20%
6%
5 2
Mitsubishi
17,797
8%
6%
6 2
Kia
16,997
-6%
5%
7 1
MG
15,539
-1%
5%
8 2
Isuzu Ute
13,000
59%
4%
9 3
Volkswagen
11,978
29%
10 2
Subaru
11,051
10%
TOTAL
317,494
17%
Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial
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Toyota 60,581 vehicles sold (+11% YoY) Toyota closed out the year in style, up 11% YoY for the quarter. While this is partially due to the delivery of outstanding orders, continuing demand for Toyota vehicles should mean strong results into 2024. Looking at the rest of the top 10:
▪
Ford has claimed 2nd spot for the quarter, with a 26% YoY increase pushing it above 3rd placed Mazda
▪
Hyundai claimed bragging rights over Kia, finishing the quarter in 3rd spot, with more than 18,000 sales for a 20% YoY increase
4%
▪
Isuzu Ute (8th) and Volkswagen (9th) both finished the year strongly, with double-digit YoY increases
3%
▪
A 46% YoY increase was not enough to give Tesla a top 10 spot, dropping to 13th spot, behind both Nissan and GWM
EV Sales & Growth
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Passenger / LCV Sales By Fuel Type Vehicle Type
Passenger
SUV
Light Commercial
Total
Fuel Type
Q4 Volume
% Chng YoY
Q4 Share
Petrol
31,532
-3%
10%
Diesel
3,112
+21%
1%
Hybrid
8,694
+36%
3%
Electric
8,809
+173%
3%
PHEV
180
+100%
0%
Petrol
101,950
+8%
34%
Diesel
35,055
+16%
12%
Hybrid
19,994
+24%
7%
Electric
12,593
+50%
4%
PHEV
4,289
+240%
1%
Petrol
7,589
-10%
46%
Diesel
70,411
+30%
36%
Electric
72
+414%
9%
Hybrid
20
N/A
7%
304,304
17%
N/A
Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV & Light Commercial
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Petrol
Electric
Volume: 141,071 Change YoY: +4% Share: 46%
Volume: 21,474 Change YoY: +85% Share: 7%
Diesel
PHEV
Volume: 108,578 Change YoY: +25% Share: 36%
Volume: 4,469 Change YoY: +230% Share: 1%
Volume: 28,708 Change YoY: +28% Hybrid Share: 9%
Total EV Sales 25,943
The final quarter of 2023 saw a significant increase in the number of low and zero emission vehicles sold in Australia, with battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles all recording strong year-on-year growth. Considering both battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles together, almost 26,000 were sold for the quarter, setting the sector up for further growth through 2024. While Australians do still love SUVs, the strongest EV growth category is passenger vehicles, with OEMs seeing the potential to launch small hatch backs and sedans into urban areas. Battery electric vehicles outperformed hybrids in this category (by 115 sales), despite it including consistently strong performers such as the Toyota Camry and Corolla hybrids.
Within the SUV category, hybrids remain a strong option (recording almost 20,000 sales), offering improved fuel economy at a more compelling price point that appears more compelling for many purchasers than the premium frequently being charged for battery electric alternatives.
Year in Review
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Top 10 Car Brands 2023
2023 2022
215,240 231,050 100,008 95,718 87,800 66,628
The biggest biggest loser in the The the top top 10 10 was wasMitsubishi, Mitsubishi, dropping two spots as dropping as its itssales salesfell fellby by18% 18%toto63,511. 63,511. Make
2023
YoY Change
2023 Share
75,183 73,345
Toyota
215,240
-7%
18%
Mazda
100,008
4%
8%
Ford
87,800
32%
7%
58,346 49,582
Kia
76,120
-3%
6%
Hyundai
75,183
3%
6%
46,116
Mitsubishi
63,511
-18%
5%
MG
58,346
18%
5%
Tesla
46,116
135%
4%
Subaru
46,114
28%
4%
Isuzu Ute
45,341
28%
4%
46,114 36,036 45,341 35,323 Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial
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Mazda continues to hold second spot with 100,008
Mazda continues to hold second spot with 100,008 vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a 32% vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a salessales increase, overtaking both Kia and as it 32% increase, overtaking both KiaHyundai and Hyundai captured 87,800 sales.sales. as it captured 87,800
76,120 78,330
63,511 76,991
19,594
Despite salesdecline, decline,Toyota Toyotaremained Despite aa year-on-year year-on-year sales remained the top-selling car brand ininAustralia the top-selling car brand in Australia 2023, in 2023, outperforming any individual competitor outperforming any individual competitor two to two one. to one.
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New Car Sales by State
In 2023, aallyear-on-year states saw strong growthToyota in newremained vehicle Despite sales decline, sales with relatively consistent YoY increases the top-selling car brand in Australia in 2023, across the country. Western Australia saw the largest outperforming any individual competitor two to one. increase at 18% (following a slow year in 2022), which translates to 18,725 moresecond new vehicles sold. Mazda continues to hold spot with 100,008
vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a 32%
On the East coast, NSW remains the strongest sales increase, bothputting Kia anditHyundai as it market, with itsovertaking 374,432 sales just over captured 87,800 sales. 47,000 units ahead of Victoria for total sales volumes.
The biggest loser in the top 10 was Mitsubishi, dropping two spots as its sales fell by 18% to 63,511.
NT
2022: 9,849 2023: 10,267
2022: 235,591 2023: 261,532
WA
2022: 105,905 2023: 124,630
State/ Territory
QLD
SA
2022: 69,373 2023: 79,009
NSW
2022: 338,012 2023: 374,432
ACT 2022: 16,228 2023: 18,531
VIC
2022: 287,314 2023: 327,229
TAS 2022: 19,157 2023: 21,150 Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial
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2023
YoY Change
2023 Share
NSW
374,432
11%
31%
VIC
327,229
14%
27%
QLD
261,532
11%
21%
WA
124,630
18%
10%
SA
79,009
14%
6%
TAS
21,150
10%
2%
ACT
18,531
14%
2%
NT
10,267
4%
1%
New Car Sales by Buyer Type
2023 2022
Private remain the single largest cohort when Despitebuyers a year-on-year sales decline, Toyota remained itthe comes to newcar vehicle in Australia, making top-selling brandsales in Australia in 2023, 55% of all purchases (up 8.6% from 2022). In real outperforming anytranslates individual to competitor two toextra one. terms, this growth almost 50,000 vehicles in this category much that could Mazda continues to hold(although second spot withof100,008 be attributed the Ford completion vehicles sold, to while took 3rdofoffpre-existing the back of a 32% orders).
sales increase, overtaking both Kia and Hyundai as it
630,297 580,495
Private
429,784 363,623
Business
33,803 Government
27,197
71,124 Rental
63,755
Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial
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captured 87,800private sales. purchasers on volume, all Despite lagging fleet buyer categories recorded stronger YoY growth, The biggest loser the top 10 fleets was Mitsubishi, as they worked toinrenew their off the back of dropping two as its sales fell 18% tosupply 63,511. COVID-19 and spots the subsequent newbyvehicle shortages. This led to total fleet sales for the year of 534,711 vehicles. Within the fleet category, government (+25% YoY) was the highest growth sector. In many cases, this will also see them adopting zero emission vehicles, as they work to deliver to government commitments around emissions reduction.
Buyer Type
2023
YoY Change
2023 Share
Private
630,297
8.6%
55%
Business
429,784
18.2%
37%
Government
33,803
24.3%
3%
Rental
71,124
11.6%
6%
New Car Sales by Fuel Type
2023 2022 588,612
551,556
Petrol 379,524 361,366
Diesel 98,439
Further pressure is likely on petrol and diesel vehicles in 2024, with more electric vehicles entering the market, and a level of correction likely from the record-setting 2023 result.
YoY Change
2023 Share
Petrol
588,612
7%
46%
Diesel
379,524
5%
36%
11,212
Hybrid
98,439
20%
9%
5,937
Electric
87,217
161%
7%
PHEV
11,212
89%
1%
33,410
Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial
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sales increase, growth overtaking Hyundai as it The strongest wasboth seenKia forand battery electric captured 87,800 sales. vehicles (up 161% YoY), and plug-in hybrids (89%), which makes sense given both are at an earlier stage The biggest loser in theHybrid top 10vehicles was Mitsubishi, in their development. (20% growth) dropping two spots asimprovement, its sales fell byoutperforming 18% to 63,511. also recorded strong the more traditional alternatives.
2023
87,217
PHEV
trend to lower emissions is clearly evident from the results continues for Hybrid,toelectric and plug-in hybrid Mazda hold second spot with 100,008 vehicles. vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a 32%
81,786
Hybrid
Electric
Despite a year-on-year sales decline, Toyota remained The overall growth in theinmarket, has to the top-selling car brand Australia in led 2023, increased salesany volumes across all fuel types, the outperforming individual competitor two tobut one.
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Fuel Type
About AAAA
About Fifth Quadrant
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.
With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.
For more information, please contact:
For more information, please contact:
Lesley Yates
Ben Selwyn
7-8 Bastow Place Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia +61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au
Level 6, 54 Miller St North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia +61 (2) 9927 3333
Director of Government Relations and Advocacy Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA) Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)
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Director Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 ben@fifthquadrant.com.au
Amelia McVeigh
Account Director Fifth Quadrant 0420 248 689 amelia@fifthquadrant.com.au