Wake up Britain, the Scottish Independence debate is different in Scotland. When Alex Ferguson, long-serving manager of Manchester United noticed the re-surgence of Manchester City as a competitive force, he commented about “noisy neighbours”. Maybe this is how Scotland and the rest of the UK are beginning to feel about each other over independence? Despite wall-to-wall media coverage in Scotland; two active campaigns; and the biggest of big issues – Scottish independence; the debate about our constitutional future is still not properly understood ‘south of the border’. We should all be concerned and get engaged. As an apolitical business organisation which has been around since the 1870s the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce has something to say on behalf of our members, who have questions to ask on behalf of their businesses; something to say on behalf of Scotland; and something to say on behalf of Britain. As an Englishman who has lived and worked in Aberdeen for 17 years, I might be well placed to make a helpful contribution, and send a Scottish message to the rest of the UK.
“It’s the economy, stupid”. Our first conclusion is that behind all the debate and discussion about who we are in Scotland and where our future might be, lies a simple truth. No economy or country can prosper and deliver a better future for its citizens unless it generates wealth. It is wealth generation which delivers an income to be taxed, and that tax base which delivers the services that society as a whole values – defence, education and the welfare state for example. This is the
contract between the public and private sectors, and it explains why both campaigns are so keen to secure the support of the business community. The economy is the number one concern for voters as recorded in a recent BBC survey, but neither campaign has yet convinced the electorate that they can offer a better future which is deliverable.
Reality and politics are not the same thing. The second conclusion is that there is a gap between reality for Scottish people and politicians, and the reality for the people and politicians in the rest of the UK. What do we mean by this? Scotland is no longer in the place that the two campaigns think they are fighting over, as Better Together seem to be defending an old idea of devolution from a Union which no longer exists (post devolution we aren’t like the rest of the UK, and with the Scotland Act passed we will become more different); and Yes Scotland are not offering us a full fat version of Independence, so long as what they propose retains the UK Queen, the UK currency and the UK bank of last resort. No wonder Scotland and the rest of the UK are confused if there is dissonance between what is being said and what is being offered. Neither campaign is offering the electorate in Scotland what it appears to want – that is gradual devolution which may in time lead to further change; it’s what the opinion polls appear to show; but there is no third question in the referendum in 2014.
Everybody has a voice. The third and subsequent conclusion that we came to is that politicians (no
matter where they sit, what their views or their individual integrity) are not the right people to solely guide us with a once-every-300-years decision. The political nature of the bi-polar debate presents us in Scotland with (only) two options, whereas in reality at least 6 are available for consideration: the current devolution settlement; less of it; more of it, as much as possible of it, a federal UK and independence being the most obvious. Business would not start from here. We conclude, therefore, that we need all the views from the many organisations and interests that make up Civic Scotland, and we need to know what our neighbours think. Politicians need to give the space to others for them to occupy, and Civic Scotland needs a braver heart to step forward to add reality to the politics. The rest of the UK has a voice and should be using it. But take care not to appear like distant cousins who haven’t seen their relations for a long time. You could just embarrass yourselves by showing your ignorance and will seem to be out of touch.
‘Certainty’ is not on the menu. The fourth conclusion that we came to is in many ways the most worrying. On the basis of the evidence to date, there will be no satisfactory answers to the multiple questions that business and the electorate have about uncertainty (from both campaigns and from both governments) between now and September, because those answers are not available to identify and describe. The terms of ‘independence’ cannot be known until after a positive vote and after a period of negotiation following a ‘yes’ decision. This is ‘independence’ with an uncertain prospectus. Independence on trust. The terms of continued devolved union cannot be known until there is a clearer narrative from the Better Together
campaign about what their Scotland will look like (which may or may not be delivered subject to the next UK election). This is a devolved UK with an uncertain prospectus. Devolution on trust.
Can campaign promises be kept? Finally, at this stage of the national dialogue, there are a number of outcomes that are becoming clearer by the day, because the debate itself is changing the under-lying paradigm. These are: The whole of the UK will be a different place – no matter what the outcome - because at the very least devolution will be a settled reality, and the direction of travel will be one-way. Whatever the outcome of the vote, it is unlikely to be conclusive for either losing party. A ‘no’ vote means the next test will be in a generation or less with continued political sniping between Holyrood and Westminster meantime. A yes vote means a long campaign from September 2014 to the Scottish elections in May 2016 (with a UK election in the middle). Who is elected and on what manifesto will define either ‘independence’ or ‘devolution’, as delivered rather than as promised – it might not be the campaign that wins the referendum vote, which wins the election vote for the right to design the future.
Robert Collier Chief Executive Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce