Education

Investing in Education and Skills Development to Harness the Demographic Dividend in Tanzania Key messages:  Tanzania prioritizes high-quality education in its Vision 2025 development agenda of transforming the country into a semi-industrialized middle-income economy.  To create a well-educated and a highly skilled workforce, Tanzania needs to increase access to early childhood, secondary, tertiary and technical/vocational education, with emphasis on attaining gender parity at all levels.  To improve education quality at all levels, the country should increase the number of teachers, improve schooling infrastructure and provision of learning material, and enhance supervision and performance monitoring measures.  Involve the private sector in curriculum development to address the skills mismatch challenge.

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Investing in Education and Skills Development to Harness the Demographic Dividend in Tanzania

Acknowledgment This Policy Brief is derived from the report of the Tanzania Demographic Dividend study, which was supported by Pathfinder International-Tanzania, with technical contribution from the Department of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam, and the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP).

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Context A well-educated and highly skilled labour force is essential to propel Tanzania to a semi-industrialized middle-income economy as envisioned in the country’s development Vision 2025. High-quality education is a key pillar of the vision and is viewed as an enabler in responding to the country’s development challenges and positioning it to be effectively competitive regionally and globally. In spite of the progress made to improve education access, about a quarter of females and 19% of males still have no education1. Gender gaps exist regarding access to secondary and post-secondary education and the quality of education is also low.

Tanzania’s high fertility and the consequent high child dependency burden undermine the capacity of families and governments to provide quality education services. An estimated 44% of the total population is below 15 years, resulting in a huge child dependency burden. Accelerating fertility decline will result in a change in the age structure with significantly more people being in the working age population. This will reduce the dependency burden and consequently lead to rapid economic growth, referred to as the demographic dividend.1 Education is vital for harnessing the demographic dividend because it is strongly associated with reduced fertility, increased quality and productivity of the labour force and increased income. Therefore, increasing the years of schooling, quality of education and relevance of the curricular in promoting innovation and entrepreneurship will enhance the country’s chance of reaping the demographic dividend.

This policy brief highlights the policy and programme options that Tanzania can adapt to improve access and quality of education and skill development in order to optimize its chances of harnessing the demographic dividend. It is derived from a study carried out to assess the potential demographic dividend that Tanzania can earn under various policy scenarios.2

Improving access and progression in the education sector Increasing access to education at all levels, especially at the secondary, technical/vocational and tertiary levels, enables a country to improve the skills of its citizenry and consequently maximize their productivity. Quality education can lift families and communities out of poverty and increase a country’s economic growth. Tanzania has made remarkable progress to improve education access at all levels. The net enrolment rate in primary school increased from 59% in 2000 to 90% in 2013 and was recorded at 85.8% in 2016, and the country has achieved gender parity.3 The high enrolment rates were realized after the introduction of free primary education in 2001, which saw enrolment rates almost double between 2002 and 2016. At a secondary level, about one third (33.4%) of the eligible population is enrolled in lower secondary schools and an additional 3.2% at senior secondary level. With the introduction of the free secondary education policy in 2015, enrolment in secondary schools (forms 1-6) increased by 1.8%. The number of secondary schools in the country quadrupled from 927 schools in 2001 to 4451 schools by 2013. At TVET level, the number of students enrolled in vocational education increased from 104,840 in 2011 to 164,077 in 2014, while those in technical education increased by 136%, from 49,185 in 2009 to 116,160 in 2014.4 Enrolment in universities also increased significantly from 40,009 in 2005/6 to 218,959 in 2013/145, an increase of more than 200%.6 1 2 3 4 5 6

Bloom, D., David Canning, & Sevilla, J. (2003). The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change, by, RAND MR1274-WFHF/DLPF/RF, 2002, 100 pp., ISBN: 0-8330-2926-6. Santa Monica, CA, USA. Pathfinder-Tanzania, UDSM, AFIDEP, 2017. Prospects and challenges of harnessing demographic dividend in Tanzania. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania The United Republic of Tanzania. Pre-Primary, Primary and Secondary Education Statistics in Brief, 2016. http://www.tamisemi.go.tz/noticeboard/tangazo-1062-20170113-BEST-Regional-and-Pocket-Data-2016/BEST-2016-Pocket-Size-Final.pdf Human Development Report 2016. United Nations Development Programme, New York, United States of America.

TCU. 2015. Students Enrolled in Universities and University Colleges 2009/2010–2013/2014. http://www.tcu.go.tz/images/documents/Enrolment_2005_2015.pdf.

Education for All 2015 National Review Report. Ministry of Education and Vocational Training: United Republic of Tanzania, Mainland.

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Major challenges for education access Despite highlighted achievements, major challenges persist for access to education and training in Tanzania which curtail the country’s capacity to educate and train a skilled and competitive workforce. While early childhood education is crucial for establishing a sound foundation for cognitive development, future learning and skills building, provision for early childhood education in Tanzania is limited. It is estimated that less than 5% of children aged 3-4 years in the country are enrolled in Day Care Centres and the majority are in private institutions.7Overall, the net enrolment rate in pre-school (one-year to 5-year olds) was estimated at 46.7% in 2016.

At primary level, despite almost universal enrolment, only 47.3% of those enrolled in class one reached class 7 in 2016. This low completion rate, which declined from 65.2% in 2011, implies a high number of pupils lost from the education system. Further, only 70% of those completing class seven transition to Form 1 in 2015. Although there was 13% increase from 2014, it implies that the formal education experience ends for many children after primary school, as just a third of the eligible population is enrolled at the secondary level. Net enrolment rate at secondary school has been declining, from 37.7% in 2012 to 33.4% in 2016 and fewer complete secondary education. Of the eligible population (17 years), only 13.6% completed form 4 in 2016. In addition to high drop high rates contributing to low enrolment, the expulsion of pregnant girls also plays a role increasing gender gap in secondary education. Even with the low enrolments, there are huge disparities in terms of place of residence and wealth status. Urban residents are more likely to complete secondary school than their rural counterparts. In 2015-16, 15% and 18% of females and males respectively in urban areas completed secondary school compared to just 4% of both females and males in rural areas. Net attendance rate (NAR) in secondary school for the wealthiest households (41%) is more than six times that of the poorest households (6%).8 Formal vocational training is unavailable to many of the children who want it.

Enrolment in the higher education sector currently stands at just 139,638 annually, about 1.7% of those who leave primary school. The 4th wave of the National Panel Survey (NPS) showed a gross enrolment rate of 5.2% in higher education institutions in 2014/15. The gender disparity in tertiary education is particularly high, with 8% of males enrolled compared to 3% of females.9 Compared to East Asian Countries like Malaysia and Thailand, Tanzania’s enrolment rates lag far behind (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Gross school enrolment ratio in Tanzania compared to selected Asian Countries

Sources: UNESCO UIS, 2015 7 Human Development Report 2016. United Nations Development Programme, New York, United States of America 8 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) [Tanzania] and ICF Macro. 2011. Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey (TDHSMIS) 2015-16. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: MoHCDGEC, MoH, NBS, OCGS, and ICF. 9 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) [Tanzania]. 2016. Tanzania National Panel Survey Report (NPS) - Wave 4, 2012 - 2013. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: NBS.

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Beyond the challenge of school enrolment, Tanzania also has high rates of drop-out, repetition and non-completion. It is estimated that one-third of primary school pupils in the country drop out of school each year (Figure 2). The repetition rate in primary education is also much higher in Tanzania (3.5%) than many of the Asian countries that reaped the demographic dividend, for instance, Singapore (0.4%). The net attendance ratio at primary school which is estimated at 76% drops drastically to 23% in secondary school.

Figure 2: Dropout and transition rates in Tanzania compared to selected Asian countries

Source: UNESCO UIS, 2015

Improving the quality and relevance of education in Tanzania Quality education involves high standard education that meets basic learning needs and enriches the lives of learners. The quality and relevance of education is determined by the curriculum, teacherquality, pupil-teacher ratio and the availability of teaching and learning materials. Education quality is emphasized in Tanzania’s development vision and the country has made significant investments to improve the quality of education. Tanzania’s 2014 Education and Training policy aims to increase access to primary and secondary education and to improve the quality of education. Tanzania’s expenditure per pupil in primary education as a percentage of GDP per capita is estimated at 11%, which is higher than the median estimate for low-income countries (9%).7 The book-pupil ratio in primary education which was estimated at 1:20 in 2001 declined significantly to 1:5 by 2011/2012.

In addition, the percentage of qualified teachers in primary education increased from 48% in 2000 to 99% in 2015. The teacher-pupil ratio in primary education also improved significantly from one teacher to 58 pupils in 2003 down to one teacher for every 43 pupils in 2015.

Notwithstanding the progress, the indicators of education quality in Tanzania are still poor compared to the Asian countries that have reaped the demographic dividend (Table 1). The top-level scores (Grade A and B) for students completing standard seven in 2014 were only 13.8% compared to 43.2% of grade C scores. A good number of children also complete primary school without acquiring basic reading and numeracy skills. The pass rates are also very low, with only 67.8% of candidates who sat for the end of primary school exam passing in 2015, with a similar figure at lower secondary. The pass rates were even lower in 2012, at 31% and 43%, respectively. Furthermore, the current education curriculum in the country is knowledge based rather than oriented towards the development and acquisition of skills and innovation, both critical for improving employability prospects. This problem is becoming more serious following the current wave of converting polytechnic institutions, which were oriented towards imparting skills, into universities.

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Table 1: Quality of Education in Tanzania Compared to Selected Asian Countries

Country Tanzania Thailand Malaysia

Education quality indicators Qualified teachers (%) Teacher-Pupil Ratio 99% 100% 99%

1:43 1:15 1:11

Expenditure on Education (% of GDP) 3.5% 4.1% 6.1%

Source: UNDP, 2016 (Human Development Report) Key policy recommendations to improve education access, progression and quality To create a well-educated and highly-skilled workforce that is competitive globally and can position the country to harness the demographic dividend, Tanzania should endeavour to implement the following policy options.

Access and progression: 1. Target the achievement of universal early childhood education which prepares individuals to succeed in primary school and later stages of education training and skills development.

2. Operationalize the strategic shift from universal primary to universal secondary education and provide more schooling infrastructure especially in underserved rural areas.

3. Put in place measures to increase progression from primary to secondary education by reducing the dropout and repetition rates, including revising policies that specifically discriminate against girls for example expulsion of pregnant girls from school, laws legalising child marriage, and reviewing the primary school exam policy that bars failures from further formal education 4. Address issues that leave women and girls out of higher education to ensure gender parity.

5. Increase access to technical and vocational education to build the skills of the labour force.

Quality and relevance: 1. Increase budget allocation for education in order to improve the quality of facilities, expand infrastructure, and improve remuneration and retention of teachers.

2. Reform education curriculum, training of teachers, and the entire educational system to focus more on skill development and innovation, with a particular focus on science and technology.

3. Develop skills specific to the country sectors of comparative advantage, particularly those that will spur industrialization, including skill development on natural gas, industrial minerals, and gemstones and precious metals.

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