Scenarios2032

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Our wOrlds 2032 3 Scenarios for Sustainable Development Developed by the youth of many cultures during UWC Youth Action Summit Utrecht, 20 July – 9th August 2002

UNITED WORLD COLLEGES NEDERLAND Max Euwe plein 30, 1017 MB Amsterdam, +31-20-4222331, www.uwc.nl , info@uwc.nl

Content Page 3 Summary 4 Introduction – basic assumptions for the scenario’s 7 -

Scenario 1: The Global Empires Who has leadership role What are key values Recommendations to key actors in the world of today

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Scenario 2: United Fingerprints Who has leadership role What are key values Recommendations to key actors in the world of today

12 Scenario 3: Humanity - Who has leadership role - What are key values - Recommendations to key actors in the world of today 14 Resulting lessons for UN, Governments, Companies, NGO’s and Individuals 15 Recommendations for Johannesburg and the next ten years 17 Acknowledgements

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Summary During three weeks we, the young people from many cultures and nationalities, gathered to learn and discuss about sustainable development and craft a message for Johannesburg. Three scenario’s of possible futures were developed based on three archetypes of leadershiproles. In ‘Global empires’ we tend to focus on ‘control’ with powerblocks ensuing. In ‘United Fingerprints’ we respect eachothers different values and a shared vision can be mobilized. In ‘Humanity’ we live in the present and learn from the past; technological progress is brought in harmony with our common claim to humanity.

The scenario’s describe what we, the youth, think is possible and realistic in 2032 when we take sustainable development seriously in the choices we make in life today. They contain important lessons for stakeholders today: Everyone can and needs to make a difference so awareness and involvement needs to be raised and broadened: -

The UN: Promote awareness and ensure education worldwide and be a credible catalyst for other parties to take action. For this you need more power and authority and a strong global support base Governments: Get rid of (mental) borders and focus on our common earth.

Raise awareness an education, implement and enforce sustainable policies Companies: Listen to the consumer and build a sustainable relationship through dialogue. Invest in and use technology and share your knowledge.

Be transparent and accountable for your actions.

NGO’s: Raise the level of awareness and activity. Develop creative ways to enhance impact even further. Network! Invest in the youth as your partner of tomorrow.

Individuals: Take any small steps you can. Consume less and better. Be open about change and demand it from your government at every level.

Overall messages / learnings for Johannesburg and thereafter: 1) Network your plans - The creation of alliances should ensure we don’t just all write our reports but that we all start to implement and act on whatever is the most urgent and impactful.

2) Open your minds and borders - take every idea at its value, turn away from veto rights and promote the flow of ideas and people 3) Think big, act small – everyone, state leaders, NGO’s, individuals, company leaders and employees, can make a change. Do not wait for others to realize big ideas, look around, make your own plan and implement it now

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4) Learn to listen - Ideas may be different from your own but every idea offers possibilities, even if they are based on a different vision of how the world can, will or should develop

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Introduction Welcome to Our Worlds 2032: 3 challenging scenarios of possible futures for the world in 2032, developed by young people from 52 nationalities.

The outcome of the scenario’s has been instrumental in shaping the input from the youth of many cultures. These will be handed to delegations traveling to the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in August 2002. The scenarios will also travel with the representatives of UWC Youth Action Summit to Johannesburg.

Let the scenarios of the Young People inspire you. Just remember that being young is not a matter of age, it is a state of mind.

The Scenario building workshop As a part of the UWC Youth Action Summit 2002 conference, about 40 young, motivated, multi-ethic individuals from The Netherlands (16-19 years old) worked together for three weeks with 75 young members of NGO's (NonGovernmental Organizations) from around the world (18 to 25 years old).

For three weeks, the young participants listened daily to forward thinkers from all over the world and discussed with them. They joined roundtable sessions.

And they shared their ideas until late evenings…

From all that ideas and information, the young participants created 3 scenarios for sustainable development. What is the challenge of sustainable development in the world of tomorrow?

To understand the dynamics and the possible leadership role in every scenario, the young participants took on three leadership roles to deal with tomorrows issues, based upon the archetypes of Jung: -

Emperors Wizard Explorer

(Resulting scenario ‘Global Empires’) (Resulting scenario ‘United Fingerprints’) (Resulting scenario ‘Humanity’)

Our Worlds 2032: Scenarios of possibility Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play

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The 'Our Worlds' scenarios are scenarios of possibilities. They describe what is possible when we take sustainable development seriously in the choices we make in life.

Exploring Sustainable Development Moral values United Fingerprints

Sustainable Development

Humanity

Sustainable Development

Global Empires

Science & Technology Our basic assumption in the scenarios Every decision we make in a culture is based upon what we can and know (science & technology), and what we believe is right or wrong (values).

Sustainable Development will accelerate or slacken dependent on what dominates our choices: what we can or what we believe?

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Scenario Dimensions How can people and human social systems Successfully respond to the challenge of sustainable development?

1. What will be the key issues in the world of 2032?

2. Which dominant leadership role will be used to make a difference in the world of 2032?

3. How will the PLANET look like in 2032 (how will technology and ethical values influence the earth) 4. How will PROSPERITY be spread over the continents, countries (which countries or regions will be the new leaders, which countries will cooperate 5. How will PEOPLE live in their everyday situation (school, products and services, food, communication and media, etc..)

6. How can PEACE be realized in your scenario?

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Recommendations to contribute in sustainable development Role United Nations Role State Leaders Role Non Governemental Organisations (NGO) Role Businesses Role individuals The Map of the New World 'If you get your facts wrong, you get your map wrong. If you get your map wrong, you do the wrong thing. But worst of all once you believe in a map, it is very very hard to change. We all have deeply ingrained maps'.

Peter Schwartz, scenarioplanner and writer of the book The Art of the Long View

'Why do the worldmaps always look the same?' a young participant from India asked in one of the scenariobuilding sessions. 'We are here together with 52 nationalities. What would happen if we all put our country of origin in the centre of the map? We would probably get 52 different worlds!'

We think we have the right map of the world. It took us some ages to discover the world with all its places. We put our discoveries back in maps which have become more and more accurate and reliable in our world of today. However, is this worldmap appropriate to make our decisions for the future?

Maybe the worldmap as we know it is not the right map we need for the future. In 'Our Worlds 2032' we created alternative maps which may challenge you to look to the world in a new way and see new relationships and patterns in the world as you know it.

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Take a look at the map of the Global Empires, The United Fingerprints and Humanity. What do you see?

Scenario 1: The Global Empires The world

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The Global Empires describes a world divided into 3 larger power blocks with centralized decision-making units (Government, Non Governmental Organizations, Businesses) that are connected together in order to manage the world properly. Global bodies such as the UN will lose power, as will national governments. Decisions about sustainable development will be strongly affected by the belief in technological progress. 'Technology will help us to create a sustainable world'. However, the actual development of technology will be significantly influenced by the prevalent ethical values: 'If we can make it, it doesn't always mean we must do it'.

Leadership role: Emperors In the Global Empires organizations and governments behave like emperors to cope successfully with issues, deal with problems. The emperor combines rational knowledge (IQ) with emotional knowledge (EQ) and tends to focus on !8

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'being in control with the world, 24 hours a day'. In the end, this leaves no party with total control, which results in a continuous state of tension and uncertainty. People want to become member of a group because it will make them more powerful.

Key values: Focus on competence In the Global Empires, people and organizations want to achieve competence values (smart, dutiful, competent, beautiful, disciplined, status, powerful, ambitious) as well as other end values like spiritual, honest, fun, caring, polite.

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Lessons & Recommendations ‘Global Empires’ Out of the Global Empires scenarios, the following key recommendations were drawn for the actors in the world of today: To the UN and the follow-up of the WSSD "Balance your relationships with the large power blocks so as to maintain you influence with all of them. Abolish the veto right, as this will damage your credibility as a global authority. Reach out to people and NGO's to build a strong global support base and give you the credibility to influence world governments and organizations. Promote common initiatives between nations. Put more pressure on governments to invest in Sustainable Development. Be Powerful" To Governments and State Leaders "Don't withdraw behind your borders and lose contact with the other 'big' countries: this will lead to conflict. Promote policies of long-term win-win cooperation between developing and developed countries. When submitting power to higher-level authorities set clear demands on these authorities regarding their sustainability policies. Make stricter laws about pollution and work together with NGO's to raise awareness about sustainable development.

Look at the world through sustainable eyes."

To Companies "Listen to NGO's and consumers: their togetherness will grow and influence your future markets. Invest in technology but led NGO's and the environment lead you in your choices. Invest in contact with consumers and get rid of the pure-trade middleman: be in contact with people, not profits. Be willing to lose profits for sustainability. Invest in Fair Trade."

To NGO's "Network, network, network! Work close together with other international NGO's. Don't fight over the methods, but agree on the goal and work together.

Be responsible about your position and do not abuse your power. Be active in making contact with businesses, giving them advice and guidance. Invest in raising awareness with people about what you are doing. Invest in education project. Defend the African Union and other starting cooperative developments in the developing world."

To individuals: "Unite with other and support the work of NGO's. Act small, think big. Support individuals with small actions, turning it into big ones. Actively gain knowledge about sustainable development, about your own consumption, about the possibilities you have to live in a sustainable way. Participate, and be open for new opinions. Demand sustainable policies from your governments and companies. Be informed!"

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Scenario 2: United Fingerprints The World

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'United Fingerprints' is a world where physical boundaries play no role in the development of the planet. As citizens of the world, we leave just our fingerprints, as a token of their own identity with respect towards the environment that they live in. People feel they are interrelated by their values and their beliefs. It is the world where sustainable development will be strongly affected by our common goal for human nature. This creates the framework in which we use technology. "We will use media and education as our tool to implement our common goal for human nature. Leaving no negative traces behind will ensure a sustainable future."

Leadership role: Wizards In the United Fingerprints, people and organizations use the strategy of a wizard to deal with issues. The gift of a wizard is wisdom, imagination and transformation. People and organizations respect each other’s values, and celebrate the diversity in the world. We would also like to ensure that the information received by the public is honest, and objective. We believe that sustainable development is based upon seeing and mobilizing the shared vision in all the different opinions, and strategies to work on the subject.

Key values: Moral values In the United Fingerprints, moral values will influence the decision we make.

Moral values are: Standing out of the crowd, Independence, Happiness,

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Authentic, Courageous. But also other values like: individuality, Freedom, Inner Harmony, Intelligence, Exciting, Ambitious.

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Lessons & Recommendations ‘United Fingerprints’ The most valuable lesson we learned as wizards is that every idea is valid and possible. Even though we are not in the place to make big decisions, we as individuals can make a difference. The following key recommendations were drawn for the actors in the world of today: To the UN and the follow-up of the WSSD Less bureaucracy, better understanding through good communication.

Get rid of the veto power of the Security Council.

Promote awareness of impact and consequences of actions More respect from big powerful countries towards small developing countries, a change of proportional representation.

To Governments and State Leaders Listen to the people Be creative in ruling and respect the fact that there are different policies.

Promote diversity Endorsement of the Earth Charter To Companies Use technology to become more sustainable Produce products that can be reused or recycled Be more aware of your image, be sustainable Share knowledge/skills with third world countries To NGO's To unite together to form networks Form more creative ways to inspire people and change the situation we live in.

To individuals: Don't consume more than you need.

Understand the consequences of your actions Consume sustainable products Respect, respect, respect!

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Scenario 3: Humanity The World

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In 'Humanity', technological progress and our values are in harmony with each other. This means that we bring back the 'human factor' in technology and in the decisions we make about sustainable development. The explorers see the world as a more humane place, where everyone is respected regardless of any divides. They want to promote the concept of one common root; ‘humanity’ is what truly binds all together.

Leadership role: Explorer Explorers live in the present. They are optimists, yet they are realistic at the same time. Explorers learn from their experiences in the past. People and organizations that behave like explorers are curious to know if new methods could help solving their issues. Explorers don’t bother that the world consists of paradoxes and they integrate them in their work and life.

Key values: Personal values In the world of Humanity, personal values dominate our decisions. We work together because we cherish the diversity of the human race. Different cultures, races and creed only help in adding color to the world of the Explorer. In Humanity we see values like Originality, Courage, Ambition, Honesty, Wisdom, Cunningness, Ingenuity, Self-respect, Safety, Intelligence, Discipline and Sensibility. In addition we also see Self- Confidence, Individuality, Humor, Tolerance, Independence, Respect For Others, Standing Out Of The Crowd, Open Mindedness as being important qualities; things that play a big role in our lives.

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Lessons & Recommendations ‘Humanity’ GOAL: Raising awareness on Sustainable Development.

This above-mentioned is our common goal and we hope to deliver this message to the following groups and people. These groups of people can do different things and hence have different roles to play in attaining this goal.

Ultimately, however, we have a shared belief and goal to raise awareness on Sustainable Development.

Lesson for all We need more power at the grassroots level so that the voice of the people can be heard. This is as a result of the world suffering at the hands of the bureaucracy and there being too much power concentrated at the top of the hierarchy.

In this autocratic world, a select group of decision-makers are depriving some others from having their say. We believe that in order to create a more sustainable world, understanding and respect for each other will play an important role. This can only be created if everyone works with each other to move forward towards a better future. Personal interests have been the name of the game so far; this should be changed!

To the United Nations We need to raise more awareness on the issue of sustainable development.

The UN should play a bigger role in trying to impart education and stress on the need for a sustainable world in all of its conventions and sessions. We believe that the UN should also have certain powers of challenging those who do not conform to international agreements regarding sustainable development (like the Kyoto Protocol).

The world has enough resources for humanity. We have enough for need, but not enough for greed. Getting over this greed is the challenge that we face today. The world is there for us to explore. However, it is our belief that exploration shouldn’t come at the cost of our progeny.

Please invest in projects to raise awareness about the gravity of the situation we face today at the grassroots level. Invest in the youth. They are the leaders of tomorrow. Try and enable projects instead of leading them. The UN will not be able to have control over everything in the world. However, the UN can spread the word by facilitating projects. We have had enough of diplomatic balderdash; it is time now for action!

To Governments Being explorers, we believe in the idea of exploring new vistas for opening up opportunities in the field of sustainable development. Therefore, one recommendation we would give to governments is to introduce new !16

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scholarships for students who want to pursue studying sustainable development. Also, fund new research centers and university programmes that work towards exploring new ideas in this field.

To Companies The world is full of opportunities for companies to grow and flourish. However, in most cases, due to excessive competition and market pressure, companies use unsustainable means of gaining power and prosperity. We encourage companies to explore means to grow keeping in mind the issue of sustainability. Use renewable resources and energy. Be open to the public and work in a very transparent way. The companies should be responsible for their actions. We believe that companies need to be answerable to the public and the law for how they produce their products and way they function.

To NGO’s The voice of the NGOs’ is being heard around the world more then ever. As they get more projection, they should explore more ideas to get you heard.

The NGOs’ can and should play an important role in raising awareness about the whole issue of sustainable development. Reach out to the masses. Go to schools and impart education on sustainable living. Educating the youth of today is like empowering the leaders of tomorrow. So our recommendation to you is to explore the power of being that you have and go out, reach every nook and corner of this world, touch humanity and make a difference!

To Individuals Individual people should change the little things and build from there to something big. They should take initiative. Instead of using normal energy they could make a difference by using green energy. And if they are sustainable enough themselves, they could spread the word. Telling people around them; friends, friends, family, neighbors and even their local governments. Make people aware that they can make a difference. And if an individual helps in converting two people towards sustainability, he still did a good job because they are two more people who care about the environment.

You can make a difference!

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The Best of All Worlds: recommendations for Johannesburg 2002

After presenting the 3 scenarios of possible futures it is time to go back to the basic question of Our Worlds 2032:

How can people and human social systems successfully respond to the challenge of sustainable development?

Young People from 52 nationalities showed us ways to create a possible future based upon sustainable development. To be prepared, we can combine the lessons and recommendations of the 3 scenarios and bring together the best of both worlds.

Resulting lessons for different stakeholders: Lessons for The UN: Should stress the role of education and needs power.

Invest in education and awareness and include the youth. Power to implement agreements, to stop greed and to be a catalyst for change; More respect for smaller countries through abolishment of veto power and proportional representation, this will increase your global authority. Enable and stimulate, don’t try to do everything yourself.

Lessons for Governments/State leaders: Be open and interact, get rid of (mental) borders, Put sustainable development high on your agenda; Endorse the Earth Charter, Invest in education: Education for all will ensure an equitable and prosperous world for all. Raise awareness through education; Fund research and the exchange of knowledge, support NGO’s and companies and individual actions.

Use judicial instruments and enforce, also supporting the UN in its role. See the value the diversity instead of repressing it.

Be a showcase for responsible leadership and let youth participate to enhance involvement Lessons for Companies: Grow but within the borders of sustainable future. Listen to the end-consumer (also of 2032) and the environment. Invest in and use technology and recycling to enhance sustainability, share knowledge on sustainable

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production as a common good with everyone. Have transparency and accountability act as drivers to keep companies responsible.

Lessons for NGO’s: You have a large role in raising awareness and broadening involvement. Align your actions and network (also with companies) to become even more of a force, also by being creative and responsible by reaching out and inspiring people. Educate the youth of today to be the responsible leaders of tomorrow Lessons for Individuals: For big action, small steps are a prerequisite. You can make these happen.

Be open for the need for change, reduce consumption, change the things you can and use the opportunities which exist: eg green energy. Be an advocate and an ambassador of Sustainable Growth. Demand proper sustainable policies from your government and 'walk your talk'.

4 Recommendations for Johannesburg and the next ten years 1.

2.

3.

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Network Your Plans Open Your Mind and Borders Think Big: Small Actions Count Learn to listen.

1. Network Your Plans The challenge for the world: Plan Your Work and Network Your Plans. Create alliances to build integrated results.

UN, countries, NGO's, businesses and individual people are really good at making plans about sustainable development, writing them down in massive reports, discussing them thoroughly and 'selling' the plans to others in order to implement. But: we all want to execute our own individual plan and therefore none of them are really being executed. We plan our work, but we don't work our plan.

2. Open Your Mind and Borders Have an Open Mind for the ideas of big countries as well as for small countries, for big ideas as well as for small ideas. 'In every idea there is something valid and possible' the Young People say in the world of the United Fingerprints. The common message from the 3 scenarios is here: Skip the right of veto out of official meetings and change it into a rule that guarantees every idea being heard and taken into consideration.

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Let people travel to places where they can make a difference. In the new interrelated and interconnected world, we can't allow it to keep people and knowledge away from places where they are needed.

3. Think Big: Small Actions Count Thanks to technology and media we are capable to turn small actions into big results for sustainable development. We don't need to be state leaders to have the power to change the world. We can join forces with other persons, NGO's, businesses and countries to realize our big ideas. We will stay connected with communities that share our ideas and let them grow.

Finally: the big lesson of the Our Worlds Scenarios 2032: 4. Learn to listen. Possibility knocks softly By doing the scenario workshops, we learned how a different vision on the future can shape our actions today. We played around with visions, driving forces and its possible outcomes. Scenariobuilding is a play. But: a serious play. We build prototypes of how people, businesses, NGO's, and UN would perceive the future in 2032 based upon our knowledge, our perceptions and our dreams today. We learned that people who see the world as a Global Empire will make different decisions today than people who see the world as United Fingerprints or Humanity. It helps us understand why the person next us takes a certain decision or comes up with a certain idea.

Creating 3 scenarios of possibility helps us to act from the possibility we see instead of acting from fear or anger. It helps us to really listen to the person next to us and ask: 'Which world do you want to create with this idea?'. That is our gift: learn to listen because in every idea will be something great and valid!

We would present Our Worlds Scenarios 2032 as a gift to everybody who makes a decision about sustainable development.

UWC Youth Action Summit 2002 ‌

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Acknowledgements Patrick Kools (UWC SEA ’95) for initiating and coaching this project The Open Minds Open Worlds team – (Adriaan Wagenaar, Angelique Blansjaar, Marian van Weerd) for the coaching, development and execution: adriaan@openmindsopenworld.com The participants of the UWC Youth Action Summit - Summer Academy for their participation: Uma nanthne Selvanathan, Mandy Hei Man Ho, André Filipe Veiga, Thanh Van Tran, Talha Khan, Borana Toska, Jenna Poon, Roberto Vargas, Nawar Najeeb, Daniël Grutters, Rian Ahsmann, George Akopian, Welcome Antonio, Hieke Barends, Elisabeth Boerwinkel, Sigrid Bregman, Lydia Busstra, Mahsa Fahimnia, Xenia Feldman, Tamara Gang, Barbara Hana, Zainab Katib, Bryan Li, Laura Navarro, Amir Ardillan Nazar, Rob Romeijn, Joachim Schipper, Anne Roos Schrader, Nienke van der Meij, Tim van Lieshout, Suzanne Vrinte, Megan Louise Weddell, Ali Al-Jaberi, Mirella Daurer, Naomi den Besten, Miguel Heilbron

The Youth NGO’s from around the world for their input: Afghan Youth Council, African Youth Parliament, Agenda for Reconciliation, AMC'S International Students Association,Associação De Ecologia Da Escola Superior Agrária,Association for Sustainable Human Development, Association of Youth Intellectual, ATTAC Argentina, Australian Red Cross (WA), Casa de la Juventud, Club of Environmental Education, Coalition for the International Criminal Court, Delfi XS, Diplomats Centre Club Junior, ECCO e. V., ECPAT Sweden, Edikanfo Progressive Foundation, EYF / Swedish Youth Council / WSSD Youth Caucus, German UWC Network, Ghumusar Mahila Sangathan, International Association of Lawyers of the Caucasus, International Peace Bureau / Hague Appeal for Peace, International Young Professionals Foundation, International Youth Parliament / African Youth Parliament, Iran Center for Future Researchers (ICFR), Iwokrama Intl Centre for Rain Forest Conservation and Dvlpt, Juristes Sans Frontiers, Korean Federation for Environmental Movement, Mathematics Students' Society, Mexican Youth Council, Multiethnic Children and Youth Peace Centers, Nasapiste, National Environment and Planning Agency, No Kidding With Our Kids Foundation, Pacific Concerns Resource Centre, Resource Renewal Institute (RRI), Rotaract Club Casablanca Atlantic, Search for Common Ground, St Kitts National Youth Parliament Association, The African Academy of Sciences, The Earth Charter Initiative / The Earth Council, The Link Diversity Campaign / YES Worldwide, The Youth Roundtable on the Environment, THIMUN Youth Assembly, Tolerance in Diversity, UNESCO Aruba, UNESCO Surinam, UNESCO Tunisia, United Nations of Youth Network, United Nations Organization of Youth - Georgian Net, University of the Philippines Economics Towards Consciousness, University of Waterloo, Unrepresented Nations and People's Organization, Vienna International Community on Sustainable Development, Women's Consortium of Nigeria, Worldvoices Norway, Yomag.net, Youth Agenda 2002, Youth Association for Habitat and Agenda 21, Youth Association of Zambia, Youth Council of Serbia, Youth Environment Council of South Australia, Youth for Johannesburg, Youth Info Club

A project initiated by UWC Nederland as part of the UWC Youth Action Summit 2002. Please copy, distribute and disseminate these findings as much as possible but don’t forget to mention United World Colleges Youth Action Summit as its origin!

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Adriaan Wagenaar adriaan@openmindsopenworld,com +31 6 51543914

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UNITED WORLD COLLEGES NEDERLAND Max Euwe plein 30, 1017 MB Amsterdam, +31-20-4222331, www.uwc.nl , info@uwc.nl

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