99
Annex C
Risk analysis Resources are always limited and so must be targeted to where they are most likely to have an impact. Risk analysis is an important tool for focusing resources on priority issues. Equally, in terms of keeping a disease out of a country, it is sometimes hard to justify the ongoing expenditure, and this becomes increasingly so the longer it has been since a previous outbreak. It is a form of preventive medicine. Although it is widely accepted that prevention is better than cure, this is a lesson too often learned after the event. Regular updating of risk analysis will demonstrate to policy-makers and stakeholders an ongoing need for maintaining vigilance, or it will provide justification for switching resources to different disease threats. Risk analysis is commonly used in disease preparedness to identify the highest risk/priority diseases for which planning is required and to identify potential preventive measures. Risk assessment can seem like a complex topic, but it can be carried out with relatively Table 5
Comparison of qualitative and quantitative risk analysis
Advantages
Qualitative risk analysis
Quantitative risk analysis
Less data-intensive
Can give numerical bounds to uncertainty and variability
Fewer resources required Advanced mathematical skills not necessary Usually need to do first anyway Often all that is required to make a decision
Allows sensitivity testing which identifies key parameters and also crucial data deficiencies Can undertake “what if” testing for both risks and risk reduction Comparisons seem easier
Everyone can understand the output and reasoning Disadvantages
High/medium/low risk description is subjective (hence the need for full transparency) Comparisons are difficult
Data-intensive (and data often not available) Resource-intensive Mathematical skills required (i.e. probabilities) For complex stochastic assessments, specialist software is required Numbers can be misleading; assumptions are often ignored Can be difficult to explain acceptable risk ranges (probabilities) May not be necessary (often?)
