Financial
Cindy van Rijswick, Rabobank’s fruit and vegetable specialist
Horticulture’s (near) future: questions and some (cautious) answers Even before the global pandemic, known and lesser-known forces were steering production models in a different direction. But COVID-19 seems to have accelerated that. Every so often, we all, as human beings, citizens, and economic players, have to face new, ever-changing challenges imposed on us by a rampaging climate and changing society. The fruit and vegetable sector is no exception.
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ill the changing climate, local focus, es. Growers there will likely cultivate, and cultivation technology advances in particular, less grain, instead emphadrive a geographical shift in cultivation? sizing other crops. You sometimes hear Will the high gas prices lead to growers that Europe will eventually become more accelerating their use of greener energy? dependent on Northwest Europe for its Will the cooperative model slowly die out food supply. However, we shouldn’t lend due to ever-expanding farms and invest- too much weight to that for our region,” ment firms’ interest in the fruit and vege- Cindy begins. table sector? We put these and other questions to Cindy van Rijswick, a fruit and “Perhaps we’ll have slightly higher average vegetable specialist at Rabobank. This yields than in the south, but due to often Dutch bank not only lends mortgages to recurring extreme weather conditions, consumers but also likes presenting itself like dry weather or floods, we too are at as an agricultural sector partner and pio- the climate’s mercy. The Andalusian counneer in the energy transition field. cil’s Environmental Information Network calculates that in the 2021/2022 hydro“Jumping right in to answer the first ques- meteorological year, southern Spain’s tion: there’s indeed a shift in the crops average rainfall was more than 30% below grown in different countries. In Spain, normal values. In November, 80% of the especially in the south, there are increas- Guadalquivir basin was officially declared ingly alarming reports of water shortag- an ‘area in a state of unusual drought’.”
In California, growers choose crops that yield a lot, but also use a lot of water
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ALMOND TREES IN CALIFORNIA Cindy says California’s climate is similar to some Mediterranean regions. There, too, drought is often already setting crop farms’ agendas. “Californian growers are often choosing other crops, particularly those that will sell for more in stores, thus promising better returns. But, bizarrely, many of these crops also require plenty of water. For example, people have switched from rice to almonds, and are using drip irrigation, But almond trees still consume a lot of water. They do bring in a lot of money, though,” she says. In the Salinas Valley, lettuce cultivation used to be strong; now, strawberry plots rule the roost. After all, strawberry cultivation’s attractive income ensures farmers can keep paying the higher land prices. “And even higher-value crops may, perhaps, eventually push out strawberries, too. Much of that is still grown in open fields and is quite draining on water resources.” Not to mention the labor issue, which also plays a role in crop selection. Nuts can mostly be harvested by machine, strawberries can not yet.
In Europe, Peru has emerged as an important avocado supplier for that market in recent years. And, according to calculations by the consulting firm, Inform@ cción, its exports grew by 28.2% last year. These could keep growing similarly in the coming years. Yet, the changing climate may well cause that country to lose between 55 and 70% of areas suitable for avocado cultivation by 2050. So finds a study published in January in the scientific journal PLoS ONE. For now, Peru’s advantage is that it can channel a considerable amount of water from the Andes to the growing areas.
