ARCHITECTURE New York State | May '24

ARCHITECTURE

NEW YORK STATE ECONOMY, INFRASTRUCTURE & ARCHITECTURE

MAY ‘24

This issue delves into the intricate dance between economy and infrastructure and its profound influence on architectural work. The articles featured in this issue explore the relationship between these elements and the world of architecture, shedding light on the economic factors driving architectural trends and the role of infrastructure in shaping urban fabric. As visionary creators shaping the built environment, the perspectives shared offer invaluable insights into how economic dynamics mold the landscapes we design. Join us in this exploration of the nexus of economy and architecture and be inspired by the diverse and enlightening contributions from our community of architects.

* The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AIA New York State. Any content provided by our authors are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

President’s Letter 4

Executive Vice President’s Letter 5

Closing the Workforce Gap: Leveraging Technology and People for Building Decarbonization 6

NYC 2100: A Vision for a Resilient Future with Six Feet of Sea Level Rise 12

Community Design that Befits all Residents 18

Construction Cost Trends: Microeconomic Design Application - UpState New York 1st Quarter 2024 22 An Optimist’s Guide to the Economy 28

PRESIDENT’S LETTER

Dear AIA New York State Members,

As we release another issue of our quarterly publication, I am filled with a sense of pride and optimism for our profession. This edition’s theme—the intricate dance between economy and infrastructure and its influence on architectural work—could not be more timely or significant.

Architecture, at its core, is a response to the needs and aspirations of society. Our work is inextricably linked to the economic realities of our time and the infrastructure that forms the backbone of our cities and communities. The articles featured in this issue explore the dynamic relationship between these elements, shedding light on the economic factors driving architectural trends and the critical role of infrastructure in shaping our urban fabric.

AIA New York State is dedicated to addressing how architects impact their communities and make them better. Recently, we had the privilege of learning from practitioners and elected officials who have successfully navigated these complexities. Through their insights and the successful completion of transformative projects, we explored the “how-to” questions that are pivotal to creating more cohesive and inclusive environments. These discussions underscored the importance of our role in not just designing buildings, but in fostering connections and enhancing the quality of life for all residents and businesses.

The Excelsior and Professional Service Awards, held on May 9, celebrated the remarkable achievements in publicly funded buildings. These awards highlight the impact of welldesigned infrastructure and public spaces on community well-being and economic vitality. The awardees exemplify the innovative spirit and dedication to public service that we, as architects, strive to embody.

As we move forward, let us continue to engage with the economic and infrastructural forces shaping our work. Let us be advocates for thoughtful, inclusive design that bridges divides and promotes sustainability. Our ability to adapt and respond to these forces will define the future of our profession and the communities we serve.

Thank you for your unwavering commitment to excellence and your contributions to the practice of architecture. Together, we can navigate the complexities of our ever-changing world and create spaces that inspire and connect.

Warm regards,

Willy Zambrano, FAIA 2024 President | AIA New York State

EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT’S LETTER

Dear AIA New York State Members,

I am continuously amazed by the profound impact of your work as architects and the vital role you play in shaping the future. This issue’s theme—the interplay between economy and infrastructure—highlights the critical factors influencing our profession and the built environment.

Architecture responds to the evolving needs and aspirations of society. Projects today are intertwined with the infrastructure that supports our cities and communities. This edition delves into how the elements of addressing community social needs and provides insight into the economic drivers behind architectural trends and the importance of infrastructure in crafting resilient urban landscapes.

At the recently held (Re)Connecting Communities conference, leaders and innovators who have successfully addressed complex community issues, shared experiences and the outcomes of their projects. They offered valuable lessons on creating cohesive, inclusive environments. These conversations reinforced the significant impact we have not only in designing structures but also in fostering community connections and improving quality of life.

On the same day, the Excelsior & Professional Service Awards celebrated excellence in publicly funded architecture for its 10th year. These awards recognize the profound effect that thoughtfully designed public buildings and spaces have on community well-being and economic vitality. The awardees represent the pinnacle of innovation and dedication to public service, values we all strive to uphold in our work.

As we navigate the future, let us remain engaged with the economic and infrastructural forces that influence your work. Together, we must champion inclusive, sustainable design that unites and uplifts communities. The profession’s adaptability and responsiveness to these forces will shape the legacy you leave for future generations.

Thank you for your unwavering dedication to excellence and your contributions to the architectural profession.

Sincerely,

Georgi Ann Bailey, CAE, Hon. AIA Executive Vice President | AIA New York State

1

CLOSING THE WORKFORCE GAP: LEVERAGING TECHNOLOGY AND PEOPLE FOR BUILDING DECARBONIZATION

by Katey Beaton, John Mikesh, & Hailey Moll

The role of our built environment in the worsening effects of climate change is unequivocal. In the U.S., residential and commercial buildings account for one-third of greenhouse gas emissions.1 In cities, buildings often comprise a more significant share of emissions, up to 50-75%.1 To meet this challenge, we have a historic opportunity nationally to drive rapid building decarbonization, with a rise in policy and unprecedented federal funding as the vehicles to support it. The Biden Administration calls for a net-zero emissions building portfolio by 2045 and halving

emissions by 2032.2 Eight major U.S. cities, one county, and four states have passed building performance standard laws.1 As cities begin to retrofit millions of buildings to improve their energy efficiency and operate without fossil fuels, the need for specialized, skilled labor to complete this work is in high demand, and architects should embrace and support this evolved workforce.1

Additionally, growing technological innovations and new design practices are fundamentally altering the construction field, creating skill gaps that necessitate an expanded and evolved workforce.3 Recent advancements in technology and building processes, such as Advanced Building Construction, Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings, automation, robotics, low carbon materials, resilient design, and modular and recyclable construction, “are transforming buildings from static objects in the environment into active participants,” and “represent system-level changes to the way we design, build, and operate buildings.”3

However, our current workforce is insufficient to meet this scale of technological and environmental change. The current workforce is aging and retiring from their jobs, resulting in a labor shortage and a skill deficiency among those remaining.1 Our need to grow the capacity of our building workforce thus requires significantly expanding the range of workers that can join the industry. The diversification of skills required for the shifting role of buildings in information and communication

Katey Beaton

John Mikesh, Assoc. AIA

Hailey Moll

technology, data analysis, software engineering, building science, computational design, and mechanical engineering creates a possibility to expand the definition of the construction field and involve more distinctive skill sets.3 Quite inevitably, too, this expanded workforce must now recruit workers from historically underrepresented populations in construction, as US population projections predict a more ethnically and racially diverse composition beyond 2030.4 Embracing this technological renaissance and demographic shift, we must close the workforce gap through the intersection of technology and equity, achieving the growth necessary to meet ambitious climate goals.

The integration of technology will operationally improve the way buildings are constructed and has the potential to help expand who works in the construction trades. Artificial Intelligence can be used to translate technical materials and documentation into various languages and identify and remove gender-biased language throughout recruitment processes.5 The shift to digital workflows and data-led practices will attract more people from diverse backgrounds and remove invisible biases, providing more flexible schedules and remote work settings.6 The implementation of wearables and site sensors can promote increased safety standards on construction sites.7 Integrating robotics into construction workflows will expand those who can join the workforce and “create opportunities for people, such as those with disabilities, to be involved in the construction trade who may not otherwise be physically able to do some of the building tasks.”8 These innovations in construction technology can help rapidly expand the potential workforce, but technology alone cannot guarantee the scale and diversity required to meet current climate goals. Additional support mechanisms should be considered to ensure this equitable transition.

The automation and specialization of the construction industry will likely increase the cost to businesses, training programs, and workers from the addition of advanced equipment, as witnessed by the mechanization of Maine’s logging industry.9 This will disproportionately impact smaller companies, as they are

unlikely to take the financial risk of purchasing new equipment and are hesitant to hire workers who do not already possess the necessary skill set. To ensure this advanced technology is accessible to training programs, equipment manufacturers can provide the equipment. This can reduce training costs and promote familiarity with the brand.

Foundation and government grants could help small construction firms purchase equipment or fund staff to receive training. Additionally, energy and architectural collaboratives could be leveraged to help promote technologies for energy efficiency or net-zero building construction and assure local training programs and businesses have access to these.

For individuals entering the construction workforce, the level of entry has potentially been raised. Managing newly advanced equipment and workflows may require laborers to earn an advanced degree or graduate from specialized vocational training programs. Traditional construction workers will also need additional training to upskill and stay relevant within the industry. Registered apprenticeship programs, internships, paid training, and on-the-job training programs can work to address workforce capacity and readiness by providing attractive and compensatory training opportunities and creating secure employment pipelines for incoming workers. Employers, governments, and industry associations, such as architecture and engineering, can sponsor apprenticeship programs. Funding from the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signal and incentivize the construction industry to prioritize an apprenticeship model. Smaller businesses could join consortiums with other employers to participate in established apprenticeship programs.1 Providing services to limit barriers to employment is also critical, such as stipends for completing education, childcare subsidies, transportation, and other wrap-around services that individuals need to be fully employed. The Kentucky Housing Corporation, for example, utilized state grant funding to train new quality control inspectors for its federal Weatherization Assistance Program and covered the cost of training, paid an hourly rate to complete training, and covered the cost of travel and lodging to complete training.10

While technology holds promise to attract and recruit historically underrepresented populations in the construction industry, public awareness campaigns will be needed to advertise the viability of this career path. Economic and/or workforce development agencies can partner with nonprofits, industry associations, unions, and employers to use multiple channels and widen outreach outside traditional networks.1 Understanding if these groups are aware of emerging construction technologies and how they aid in this transition is vital to leveraging more workers and ensuring the construction trades are inclusive.

In conclusion, the construction industry is undergoing a significant transformation due to technological advancements and the need to address climate change. However, this transformation also presents an opportunity to diversify the workforce and involve new skill sets.

The integration of technology can help to advance safety and efficiency, remove biases, and expand the pool of potential

This diagram, provided by the Deloitte Economics Institute, illuminates how the existing construction industry will be able to integrate into and participate in the green economy emerging from building decarbonization. Source: Deloitte Economics Institute

John Mikesh and Michael Aiardo conducting research at the Autodesk Technology Center in Boston, MA working collaboratively with an ABB industrial robotic arm. Research sponsored by CEMEX Global R&D, under the guidance of Julie Larsen and Roger Hubeli, Syracuse University. Source: John Mikesh, 2019

workers. As we move towards a more sustainable and equitable future, it will be critical that we ensure these advancements are accessible to everyone, regardless of their background or economic status.

This must be addressed at the beginning of a construction process, when the project team typically sets goals, timelines, and expectations for everyone involved. At this time, potential bottlenecks in the construction workforce can be identified early, and appropriate stakeholders can be proposed. By identifying manufacturers, contractors, and maintenance teams early, gaps in skills can be resolved productively instead of causing delays and unexpected costs towards the end of a project. Through this cooperative structure and embracing this technological renaissance, we can reach the growth necessary to achieve a low-carbon future while creating a more diverse and inclusive workforce.

Architects can and must advocate for these changes in the construction industry. Without these changes, our vision of a net-zero built environment will persist in blueprints. The problem is no longer what we will do, but who will do it. l

Endnotes

1. Howard, Sylvie Gallier, Esposito, Nicolas, Ross, Vaughn, Johnson, Kate, etc. “Growing the Workforce Needed for Building Retrofits: A Guide for U.S. Cities.” C40 Cities (New York, NY). March 7, 2024. https://c40.my.salesforce.com/sfc/p/#36000001Enhz/a/ Vo0000002bDB/qpGKZ155V0Y9Fd9f9w2lROtmZFfnazc6oLKSXyWua9k.

2. Executive Office of the President. “Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability.” Federal Register (Washington DC), December 8, 2021. https://www.federalregister. gov/documents/2021/12/13/2021-27114/catalyzing-clean-energy-industries-and-jobs-through-federal-sustainability.

3. Truitt, Sarah, Bean, Jonathan, Sullivan, Julia, Paranjothi, Gokul, and Moe, Allison. “Completing the Circuit: Workforce Development for Advanced Building Construction and Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings.” U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Washington DC), March 2022. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/ fy22osti/80480.pdf.

4. Vespa, Jonathan, Medina, Lauren, and Armstrong, David M. “Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060.” Current Population Reports. P25-1144. U.S. Census Bureau (Washington, DC), 2020. https:// www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/ demo/p25-1144.pdf

5. Chandha, Saikran. “Breaking down Language Barriers: How AI Is Enabling Global Collaboration.” Fast Company (New York, NY), May 22, 2023. https://www.fastcompany.com/90897944/breaking-down-language-barriers-how-ai-is-enabling-global-collaboration

6. Hakimian, Rob. “How Technology Is Helping to Level the Playing Field for Women in Construction.” New Civil Engineer (London, UK), January 16, 2024. https://www.newcivilengineer.com/opinion/how-technology-is-helping-to-level-the-playing-fieldfor-women-in-construction-16-02-2024

7. Jones, Kendall. “Construction Technology Is Reshaping the Industry.” Construct Connect (Cincinnati, OH), December 3, 2020. https://www.constructconnect.com/blog/technology-reshaping-construction-industry

8. Cain, Stephanie. “Robots Are Solving Construction’s Challenges, Including a Workforce Shortage.” Fortune (New York, NY), January 4, 2024. https://fortune.com/2024/01/04/ai-make-business-better-housing-construction/.

9. Beaudoin, Jack. “Lessons in Wood: An Innovative Program Prepares a New Generation of Loggers.” Northern Woodlands (Lyme, NH), December 1, 2023. https://northernwoodlands.org/articles/ article/lessons-logging.

10. Truitt, Sarah, Williams, Juliana, and Clarke, Ardelia. “Building a More Diverse, Equitable, and Inclusive Energy Efficiency Workforce.” U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Washington DC), March 2022. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81498.pdf

Katey Beaton, BSc, has worked for the last five years professionally within the energy efficiency and building decarbonization space as a researcher and data analyst in consulting. She has become well versed in building electrification technologies as well as the barriers to implementation, particularly around the workforce. Katey is extremely passionate in supporting people and the climate crisis and therefore finds workforce development to be a key intersection in ways technology and equity can overlap through a Just Transition.

Hailey Moll, MPA, BSc, is a scientific researcher and communicator with a focus on urban policy and climate change. As Manager of Educational Resources at the Building Energy Exchange, she harnesses her strong communication skills and scientific foundations to help accelerate an equitable transition to a low-car-

bon, healthy, and resilient built environment through research, advocacy, and training the building workforce and its decision-makers.

John Mikesh, Assoc. AIA, MA, BA, is a researcher and designer with a strong emphasis on construction techniques, material properties, and digital delivery systems. He is currently a Computational Researcher and a member of the AIA NY Future of Practice Committee. Having held research positions at Princeton University, Syracuse University, CEMEX Global R&D, and TerreformONE and a Design Residency at Autodesk Technology Center, John stays abreast of the latest trends in environmental construction and demonstrates a keen interest in continually finding carbon-reducing solutions.

Beauty, Strength and Safety

When it comes to rooftop decks, almost any railing material will keep your guests safe, but why settle for function only - when you can have functional art instead?

No other commonly used material can match the tremendous visual impact of a stainless steel railing system. And, when the railing is custom designed, and then prefabricated by AGS, the value proposition for stainless railing becomes undeniable.

2

NYC 2100: A VISION FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE WITH SIX FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE

by William Kenworthey AIA, LEED AP Principal, Regional Leader of Planning, HOK

William Kenworthey, AIA

There’s Based on current projections for sea level rise by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), a large portion of the city could be underwater by 2100. This poses an existential threat to one of the world’s most iconic metropolises.

Home to nearly nine million residents, New York City faces unprecedented challenges from climate change. Projections indicate that a six-foot rise in sea level and the likelihood of more powerful storms could impact an area that houses 1.4 million people by 2100. HOK’s research explores long-term land use strategies and hopeful visions for the city’s future, focusing on planned retreat, the emergence of a new coastline experience and denser transit-oriented development to support migration to higher ground.

Our study identifies 7,200 acres of developable land within a five-minute walk of existing or proposed rail transit in the city’s four outer boroughs—Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island—potentially accommodating the at-risk population and anticipated growth.

This work demonstrates how climate change is reframing approaches to urban design and land use planning. It also illustrates how coupling key policy considerations with tactical solutions can promote long-term planning, climate justice and resilient design in metropolitan areas.

The Rising Challenge: Sea Levels and NYC’s Future

Rising sea levels from climate change seriously threaten many major coastal cities, including New York City. HOK’s Planning + Urban Design practice explored equitable, resilient design strategies for how cities can adapt to this long-term challenge in our NYC 2100 research project.

Figure 1. Context: New York City.

New York is currently planning coastal protections for up to six feet of sea level rise for select portions of city, including the 10 miles of coastline in southern Manhattan (Figures 1 & 2) (Rebuild by Design, n.d.; The City of New York, n.d.). However, this protective infrastructure requires significant investment and will not address a large portion of the city’s 500-mile coastline.

Our study focused on the outer boroughs to understand the possibilities of planned retreat and hopeful visions for accommodating a growing, migrating population.

Assessing Risk and Identifying Opportunities

The study mapped areas with the highest flood and storm surge vulnerability throughout New York City’s outer boroughs. It considered social, economic and equity factors that could compound climate risk. The effect of sea level rise on critical infrastructure and vulnerable populations was also identified (Figures 3-8) (FEMA, n.d.; NPCC, 2019; NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice, n.d.). The analysis revealed that most of the vulnerable population is non-white and includes130,000 people living in NYCHA (public housing). Additionally, 155,000 households in high-risk areas are below 2019 poverty levels, underscoring the disproportionate burden on vulnerable and marginalized communities.

The study also found that much of New York City’s critical infrastructure is at risk of flooding. This includes all three major metropolitan airports, several subway lines, many power plants and thousands of industrial properties, further exacerbating the potential environmental and economic impacts of sea level rise.

To accommodate at-risk residents and the city’s population growth, the study explored opportunities for transit-oriented, mixed-use neighborhoods outside the path of rising waters. We identified 7,200 acres of resilient development potential within a five-minute walk of existing or proposed transit stations. This would require an average Floor Area Ratio (FAR) increase of 3.3 over the 2020 existing build-out to satisfy the projected residential demand (Figure 9) (New York Building Congress and HOK, n.d.).

From Vulnerability to Vitality

The study’s findings underscore the need for a holistic and inclusive approach to addressing climate change, creating resilient places and new opportunities for populations migrating away from the shifting coastline. Developing projects around public transit improves access to jobs and opportunities, reduces emissions and creates walkable, climate-resilient neighborhoods. Increasing mixed-use density near transit is critical to mitigating barriers to affordability and mobility.

Each Community District will need to consider issues related to flooding and growth, with some reducing housing and losing land to the sea. Others will grow significantly and thus need to incorporate strategies to address gentrification, services and traffic (Figure 10).

Figure 2. Context: Planned protections by the City for six feet of sea level rise.

Figure 3. New 2100 coastline with six feet of sea level rise.

Figure 4. 2100 base flood elevation with six feet of sea level rise.

Figure 5. New York City Housing Authority impacts.

Figure 6. Population impacts by race.

Figure 7. Median household income impacts.

Figure 8. Critical Infrastructure Impact

Brooklyn and Queens are likely to be the most impacted by both sea level rise and the potential for transit-oriented development (Figure 11). These boroughs have extensive subway and commuter rail networks that can support higher-density development in safer areas further inland from the shifting coastline.

The vision for Brooklyn’s Gowanus/South Slope neighborhoods shifting coastline includes parks and social gathering spaces that demonstrate how urban design can help cities live with water and create new opportunities for recreation, art and community. This vision (Figures 12-14a) illustrates resilient development strategies, recreational spaces in flood plains, affordable housing typologies, expanded pedestrian areas and mixed-use ground floors provides maker spaces, food & beverage, educational spaces, and supporting community amenities/services. Trackless trams and dedicated micromobility lanes can enhance mobility for the increased residential population (Figure 14b).

Jamaica Center in Queens (Figures 15-16a) has several subway lines, commuter rail service to Long Island, and AirTrain service to JFK Airport. This transit-rich area is currently underbuilt based on existing zoning. The vision shows how mixed-use podiums and high-density residential towers can add significant development capacity while providing recreational spaces and amenities at an upper level in a land constrained environment. Bridges across streets support the additional density while, below, trackless trams add capacity to the transportation network (Figure 16b).

The new coastline vision for Hunters Point/Long Island City (Figures 17-18a), which are equally supported by significant subway and commuter rail infrastructure, showcases adaptive strategies like wet flood-proofed market spaces, green infrastructure, elevated walkways/utilidors and a vibrant working waterfront edge. The density of existing transit options allows for new activities along the shifting urban shoreline. (Figure 18b)

Charting a Course Toward Resiliency and Equity

NYC 2100 serves as a model study demonstrating how an integrated approach to resilient planning and design can better serve coastal cities and their neighborhoods, commercial centers and transportation systems while prioritizing the needs of vulnerable populations.

The research highlights the urgent need to address climate justice and equity in adaptation strategies, as marginalized communities face disproportionate risks from sea level rise. Identifying at-risk and opportunity areas now is crucial for developing comprehensive and effective climate change solutions that protect critical infrastructure and ensure a just and resilient future for all residents.

By embracing equitable, resilient design strategies, cities like New York can adapt to the challenges of rising sea levels while creating thriving, sustainable neighborhoods for future generations. l

References

FEMA. (n.d.). National Flood Hazard Layer. https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/national-flood-hazard-layer

New York Building Congress and HOK (n.d.). Building the of New York: Transit and Land Use. https://www.hok.com/ideas/publications/new-york-city-transit-and-landuse-planning-for-record-populations

New York Panel on Climate Change. (2019 March). New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding. https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley. com/doi/10.1111/nyas.14011

NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice. (n.d.). Coastal Surge Flooding. https://climate.cityofnewyork.us/challenges/coastal-surge-flooding/

Figure 9. Development opportunities within five-minute walk of existing or proposed rail transit.

Figure 10. Community Districts overlaid on 2100 base flood elevation.

Figure 11. Brooklyn and Queens site identification

Figure 12. Gowanus and South Slope, Brooklyn

Figure 13a. Existing view of Gowanus/ South Slope at 9th Street looking east.

As an urban designer and architect, Bill leads HOK’s urban design projects across the Northeast region. He has been responsible for leading high-profile projects throughout his 25 years in the field, and his work includes efforts for government agencies, private developers, institutions and Fortune 500 Companies. Bill has successfully navigated the approvals and public engagement processes for projects in cities including New York, Philadelphia, Arlington and Hartford. His past work includes the implemented public spaces at the Miracle Mile & Giralda Avenue streetscapes in Coral Gables, Florida, and the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s Roberts Research Campus. Bill has published and lectured internationally on public realm, waterfront development and resiliency.

Figure 14a. Existing view of South Slope at 9th Street looking west.

Figure 14b. Rendering of South Slope at 9th Street looking west.

Figure 15. Jamaica Center analysis summary.

Figure 16a. Existing view of Jamaica Avenue looking west.

Figure 13b. Rendering of Gowanus/South Slope at 9th Street looking east.

Figure 13c. Rendering of Gowanus/South Slope at 9th Street looking east – flooded scenario.

Figure 16b. Rendering of Jamaica Avenue looking west.

Figure 17. Hunters Point/Long Island City analysis summary.

Figure 18a. Existing view of 46th Avenue looking west.

Figure 18b. Rendering of 46th Avenue looking west.

3 COMMUNITY DESIGN THAT BEFITS ALL RESIDENTS

Undoing damage caused by prioritizing infrastructure over people.

by Scott Townsend, Principal, SWBR

Well-designed infrastructure supports a community and enhances the residents’ lives. Since the sixties, however, urban infrastructure has been poorly executed and, oftentimes, deliberately caused catastrophic damage to families and communities. Is the harm caused irreparable? The jury is out and depends on what we all do next.

Most now realize the devastating effect caused by intrusive urban highways—our friends and neighbors living by highways, the communities and connections destroyed by them, ever-growing health and wealth disparities, and our planet’s suffering due to our hyper transportation network reliant upon fossil fuel guzzling cars.

OK, so attitudes about auto-centric infrastructure creation are changing but are the habits of using and creating them changing fast enough? That’s up for discussion.

Culturally speaking, our approach moving forward must be that community design is the priority and infrastructure should simply support it. For perspective, infrastructure is a mode of sustaining life (utilities) and a way of getting around (transit). That is it. Nothing more.

Albany Redline Map

Scott Townsend, AIA

Empire State Plaza & Arterial - Under Construction - 1972

The origin of infrastructure?

To support community needs and improve lives.

As American cities took shape in the 19th century, the infrastructure was basic – perhaps enough public space to allow horse and buggies to pass but not much else. As time moved on, so did our needs. Water needed to be brought in, and human waste and stormwater had to be collected and discarded. The next wave brought electricity to the masses and, later, phones.

What is rudimentary and deemed basic now, was liberating back then.

The 19th century infrastructure—utilities—were proportionally scaled for the neighborhoods, towns, and villages. Not only were utilities not intrusive, but they were welcomed and seen as a priority. For decades, new discoveries and inventions emerged and became necessities for daily life.

Broadening our lens, mass transportation was taking shape and influencing the needs of municipalities and cities. Villages, towns, and cities desired train stations that went far and larger municipalities incorporated subways, trolleys, and buses with local, regional, and national routes. Moving folks conveniently, cost effectively, and within the confines of the road systems available was best to do in mass, thus the phrase mass transit. No one minded sharing mass transit accommodations since it was communal, and people identified with their communities and doing things as others did.

What changed? Policies and Infrastructure became exclusionary, no longer serving all.

We, in the United States, became a victim of our own success and excess. And racism.

American ingenuity, mid-20th century leadership, a flourishing economy, and a newly found freedom loving consumerism led us down that road. Legislation passed and policies were implemented that paralleled the country’s euphoric, warwinning zeitgeist and evolving lust for expansionism.

The legislation adding fuel to this mindset was many, each adding to the larger, cumulative impact that negatively affected our cities, communities, and its citizenry.

In the 1930’s, President Roosevelt, through the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation, had maps for 239 cities created that ranked investment areas. Most black and brown communities, designated as being hazardous investment areas, were denoted in red, thus the term ‘redlining’. If you resided in a redlined area, you probably couldn’t get a loan or, if you could, the interest rates would be outlandish.

In 1944, President Roosevelt’s administration passed the GI Bill of Rights, providing money and stipends for veterans to use for education and housing. Demand for cheap housing plots spiked as land outside of cities was abundant and inexpensive.

The outcome was that redlined communities, predominantly black, brown, and migrant communities, were disincentivized

BEFORE: Downtown Albany, NY

to accumulate wealth while predominantly white veterans were incentivized to not only get an education but encouraged to flee the urban cores and purchase suburban land and housing. These two policies laid the foundation of what we see today.

In 1956, just a dozen years later, President Eisenhower passes the Interstate and Defense Highway Act (aka: The Great Highway Act). This led to the era of urban renewal a decade or so later. Like steroids to a bodybuilder, this act, coupled with the auto industry pumping out affordable cars, became the accelerant to what was already occurring.

The large swathes of urban redlined areas were in rapid decline while suburban growth was accelerated, rapidly gaining in wealth, population, and influence.

Policies passed and actions taken represent the priorities of an era. The mid-20th century saw the push for white flight to escape ‘urban blight’, as politicians often referred to urban communities. This suburban migration and its negative effect on black and brown communities tragically coincided with the Civil Rights movement and passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 outlawing racial discrimination.

In 1977, President Carter, passed the Community Investment Act which sought to eliminate the practice of redlining. Regarding highway planning and expansion, it fell into the too little, too late category.

What’s next?

Community evolution through inclusion.

Studies show that walkable communities comprised of a diverse population where residents have an available array of amenities and choices (transportation, stores, restaurants, parks, recreation, etc.) lead to safer, healthier, more livable communities. When those traits are present, most designers, owners, developers, and civic leaders would deem them a success. But are they always? Too often success for some comes at the expense of others.

That is the unfortunate, unvarnished truth, and our history is fraught with examples. Often, a newly created ‘successful’ place - defined successful by those in power and afforded by those occupying high stations in society – excludes or displaces people not occupying those stations in society.

Why does this occur? Placemaking is an investment, and the return on that investment must work. Math is the bottom line. For a project’s bottom line to work, the revenue generated must yield a higher return than the initial investment made, thus the term return on investment, or ROI. The investment costs (land purchase, construction, professional fees, interest rates, etc.) have little leeway. Oftentimes, the flexibility can only occur on the revenue generation line.

When a project’s costs escalate, which they often do, the amount of revenue generated (purchase price or tenant rent) increases. When that occurs, another stratum of folks and families can’t afford to live there.

That is a definition of exclusion. It is deemed gentrification or displacement if people or families that resided in the place prior to its improvement are priced out due to the escalated living costs of their own community.

Excluding, gentrifying, and/or displacing people from where they live shouldn’t be seen as success. So how do we ensure this doesn’t happen? When investing in existing communities, there must be mechanisms that ensure current residents can afford to stay and encourage a diverse population.

Eight decades ago, an era of legislation benefiting a majority white population while suppressing a minority black and brown population, began. Now, eighty years later, legislation, policies and practices must not only reverse the decisions made but rectify the damage done.

Just as the damage caused was deliberate and intentional, there must also be a deliberate and intentional effort to repair it.

Let’s begin by empowering the community and its citizenry. Suggested ways include creating community benefit agreements for areas and neighborhoods, land use committees or planning commissions comprised of residents, task force appointments, and so on.

It takes work—work done by us all—to undo the damage and give everyone the chance to succeed and thrive. l

Scott Townsend is a Principal at SWBR, a multi-discipline design firm located throughout Upstate NY, that seeks to Positively Impact Lives through Meaningful Design, as well as the founder of the Albany Riverfront Collaborative, Inc., an advocacy group seeking to reconnect Albany, NY to its riverfront and all communities to one another.

Arterial Fence, 2002. Photo Credit: Scott Townsend, AIA.

4

CONSTRUCTION COST TRENDS: MICROECONOMIC DESIGN APPLICATIONUPSTATE NEW YORK 1ST QUARTER 2024

by Brandon Salazar PhD, CEO and Joe Cohen AIA, CPA, LEED, FMP, CEP, COO, S&C Companies

Understanding construction cost trends in the microeconomic Upstate NY environment is crucial to the success of any project.

To do so we’ll review:

• U.S. macro construction environment,

• Construction commodity material pricing,

• Consumer price inflation (cpi),

• Construction escalation,

• Micro Upstate NY Construction Market

- Bureau of Labor statistics for construction in the metro-regions of Buffalo, Rochester, and Albany.

- Mega-projects that could be skewing the already stressed local construction labor pool and increase Subcontractor profit margins,

• Highlighting a local WNY project adapting design & engineering for current economic conditions.

US BLS last year showed a solid growth rate of “Construction Put in Place” of 14% ($2.1 trillion month of Jan 2024 vs. $1.84 trillion at month of Dec 2023). This strong growth rate is due to a rebound in construction from the Federal run up of interest rates during 2022. Nonresidential is pulling up residential construction rates. January 2024 shows a 22% Nonresidential increase, $1.19 trillion Jan 2024 vs. $978 billion Dec 2022=$212 billion growth. Versus a comparatively modest

6% Residential increase, $912 billion Jan 2024 vs. $863 billion Dec 2022= $49 billion growth. Most of the Nonresidential construction growth was driven by the Manufacturing sector that increased by $92 billion. During 2023 Manufacturing grew 70% from $133 billion in December ‘22 to $225 billion for the month of January 2024. This growth offset weakness in the Nonresidential sectors of Office and Commercial. Residential will probably continue to grow due to the lack of affordable housing and rates stabilizing. While the Nonresidential Manufacturing segment is leveling off. The Manufacturing Segment increase is slowing from its’ previous boom year. Institutional, health and education, work should continue its’ growth from 2023. Hopefully Commercial and Office markets will not implode due to contract extensions preventing foreclosures in 2023 but now may occur in 2024.

Joe Cohen, AIA

Brandon Salazar, PhD

Energy pricing affects the cost of construction materials. As energy prices not only affect the shipping of construction materials but also the cost to produce materials that rely on petroleum. Examples of these construction products are plastics, polyurethane, roofing, and asphalt.

As demand, based upon economic conditions, goes so does energy pricing. Although the U.S. economy maintains a steady growth rate, as measured by GDP, the rest of the world has not.

Reduction in fossil fuels will hopefully accelerate with efforts by Countries, such as the U.S. and Groups, such as the E.U., to move towards more sustainable forms of energy.

Events in the Mideast could restrict supply of fossil fuel and increase pricing but have not yet.

Construction material price increases have come down from their 2020 COVID price spike. We believe the Worldwide supply

Material components of ENR’s building & construction cost indexes national: structural steel, portland cement,2 X 4 lumber.

chain has changed. Prior to COVID the 10 year average for escalation from 2009 to 2019 was 3%. In 2020, the height of COVID, construction material escalation was 35%. Since then, escalation has reduced to 19%/yr in 2022 and 9%/yr in 2023. Construction material escalation for the year of March 24 / over March 23 is at 6%.

The CPI is the most widely referenced measure of U.S. Inflation. The CPI utilizes a broader basket of goods than ENR’s MPI. This will result in both the CPI & MPI moving in similar directions the MPI will be more volatile with typically higher rates of escalation than the CPI inflation rate.

BCI-National: 68.38 hours of skilled labor: bricklayers, carpenters, and structural ironworkers’ rates, plus 25 cwt of standard structural steel shapes at the mill price prior fabricated, plus 1.128 tons of portland cement, plus 1,088 board ft of 2 x 4 lumber.

The difference between ENR’s BCI and MPI is that the BCI basket of goods mimics what is utilized on a typical building construction site. Half of the basket includes construction materials the other half includes the trades workers’ wages. Again, a broader basket that includes both construction materials as well as the trades required for installation will be less volatile than the MPI. Not only since it is a bigger basket but also that labor prices are not as susceptible to anomaly occurrences in the marketplace and supply chain disruptions. It is to be noted that although the ENR BCI is less volatile than the ENR MPI it still is MORE volatile than the border-based US CPI. We believe that in the U.S supply chains, since COVID, has evolved to be more localized and adaptive to disruptions. The new post-COVID construction supply chain is also less efficient than the pre-COVID construction supply chain. Prior to COVID the 10-year average of the ENR BCI from 12/2009 through 12/2019 was 2.36% construction escalation rate / year. Since COVID the 4-year average from 3/2020 through 3/2024 was 6.85%. With March ’24 over the March ’23 annualized rate being 3.60%. Given recent potential supply chain disruptive events we are not confident that this escalation rate will hold. The Red Sea attacks by the Houthi rebels on commercial ships may disrupt the supply chain. To date it has not had a drastic effect on escalation, an example of the more stable U.S. Supply chain. On a domestic level the Baltimore Harbor-Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse may disrupt the supply chain. We believe a 5% to 6% for 2024 escalation rate would be appropriate.

Microeconomics, The Upstate Markets:

Speaking with Upstate NY subcontractors, most report being very busy with the problem being availability of skilled trades workers, especially in urban areas. Availability of skilled trades workers per capita is better in rural areas since that is where most skilled trades workers reside. The gap between union and merit shop wages and fringes is shrinking from the low supply, high demand for skilled trades labor. The unions’ training programs are the only organized source for additional trades skilled labor. The good news is that interest by younger adults in joining apprenticeship programs seems to be increasing.

The CPI is put together by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the change of cost of consumer basket of goods & services including; Housing, Transportation, Food, Medical, Education, Recreation & Apparel.

Per the BLS, all three Upstate-major metro markets have very similar sized construction trades labor pools with a range of 19,000 to 25,000 construction trade workers. They all seem to be on very similar seasonal cycles. The upstate NY cold seasonal weather makes winter construction difficult. Adding to the cyclical nature of the work is that the educational market prefers construction to occur during their facilities’ summer season break.

Having similar sized pools of labor that operate on the same seasonal construction schedules does make these markets susceptible to trade labor shortage spikes, caused by megaprojects. Each of the Upstate NY Metro Regions have megaprojects. Rochester has the $650 million expansion project at the University of Rochester Medical Center Strong Memorial Hospital in construction. Outside of Rochester is the $650 million Fairlife dairy processing facility that has started construction. Gov. Kathy Hochul announced that the state will put $1 billion towards expansion of the Albany NanoTech Complex semiconductor research and development center. The $495 million construction of the NanoFab Reflection is supposed to breakground very shortly.

Excavation, foundation, and steel erection have begun at the $1.75 billion Buffalo Bills stadium. As shown below this project will add significant demand to the local skill trades. Especially as most of the work will stress different trades at different times depending on when it occurs within the project schedule.

Recently the Bill’s Stadium work would have high demand for Equipment Operators and Teamsters required to run the Rigs for Pile Driving, Excavators and Hauling Dump Trucks. Talking with one of the areas’ largest Pile Driving Companies they knew the heightened demand was coming and tried to plan accordingly. If local skilled labor cannot meet the demands for the Bills Stadium, the GC/CM will hire per diem out-of-town trade skilled workers.

Orange - Anticipated additional local tradeworker demand for Bills Stadium Project.

Blue - Projected local active construction trade workers in the Buffalo-Metro region, seasonally adjusted per Historical NYS Bureau of Labor and Statistics .

Local WNY project adapting design & engineering for current economic conditions:

City of Lackawanna New City Hall - CPL Architecture Engineering Planning

Project is an adaptive re-uses the existing Knights of Columbus Hall at 2838 South Park Avenue.

The public facing departments and the City Council Chambers will be contained within the footprint of the existing building. A Northeast addition for the administrative nonpublic program will be constructed behind the renovated South Park Avenue facing existing building.

Sustainability: A GeoThermal Well Field of 36ea 400lf deep wells will be provided under the Southeast parking lot. Discussions were had with potential well drilling subcontractors to discuss the possible Operator Engineer shortage that may occur due to the Stadium work. They informed us that since this is specialty work it would require their own trained staff with drilling equipment specific to geo-thermal well field installation. They did not feel the Stadium work would impact them.

Site: Existing grades are maintained to reduce regarding work and minimize haul-off. The front lawn is mostly maintained. All new planting will be indigenous. Bioswale water retention systems will be provided in lieu of underground water retention systems.

Exterior: The existing masonry facade nature will be maintained as it hearkens back to the working blue-collar nature which is the City’s history. The existing feature wall front facing South Park Avenue will be clad with Dekton synthetic stone. An 18” high Dekton synthetic stone base will be added to the existing building and the new addition to tie the two buildings together. Dekton synthetic stone trim will be added to highlight all main entry doors. The public will enter a glass enclosed lobby addition. The nonpublic administrative addition around the back will be clad with a clean simple metal panel and have punched window openings.

S&C Companies-A Certified MBE. A full-service preconstruction consulting business. Our mission is to help you build a better Western-Central NY Community. Specializing in Project Cost Estimating. Check us out at https://sc-companies.com

Brandon Salazar PhD is CEO at S&C Companies and in charge of day-to-day operations. His responsibilities include proformas for property acquisitions, rehabilitation & new construction, estimating quantification and construction related contracting; anything that is required to keep projects moving forward. bsalazar@sc-companies.com, (610) 393-7625

Interior: -The public will enter the new glass enclosed vestibule and will be guided down the main corridor clad with rustic brick. The main corridor will lead to public servicing offices and the Council Chambers. The City Council Chambers Bench, Podium and Rail will be a dark wood laminate, with a masonry feature wall behind the Council Bench. A backlit Lightglass interior skylight system will highlight the City Council Bench. The space will provide the authority and respect that is expected when presenting to the City Council.

Structure: The addition is an efficient rectangle shape with administrative offices off a double loaded corridor. With moment connections the structural steel framing is a light 7.20 Lbs/ sf. Most of the new mechanical equipment will be on the new structure. Keeping mechanical equipment off the front facing existing building minimizes modifications to the existing structure and also hides HVAC equipment from public view. l Editor’s note: Due to a delay in the publication date, economic conditions as expressed in the publication are dated.

Joe Cohen AIA, CPA, LEED, FMP , CEP is COO at S&C Companies. Board Member WNYAIA and Head of Government Committee. He possesses a unique combination of skills and expertise that he has amassed through over 30 years as a cost engineer/estimator in Western New York. Regardless of what phase your project is currently in, Joe is fully capable of providing estimating related services that will maximize return and ensure your project’s success.

jcohen@sc-companies.com, (716) 465-1503

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AN OPTIMIST’S GUIDE TO THE ECONOMY

by Tonja Adair, AIA, Founding Principal, Splice Design

Iam optimistic. Throughout my career as an architect and urban designer, I have been excited about the physical transformation of our spaces and environments, as well as the relationship of energy and infrastructure to our society at large. Infrastructures are the backbones of how we act and grow as societies. Architects tend to be strongly associated with our physical infrastructures, buildings, environments, social spaces, transportation, etc.; yet we could take a broader view and see economy as another infrastructure interrelated to the more tactile ones we impact. On a daily basis, individuals may be more concerned about gas and groceries (depending on one’s location in the country or a particular state), rather than where energy comes from or the watershed where one lives. At least until a natural disaster strikes—hello superstorms and rolling black outs!

We all see and feel the world rapidly changing.Pick an issue— politics, climate change, human rights, social justice, gender equity—and it can dominate our news feeds. When we think of the economy, ideas of supply and demand, monetary or fiscal policies that feed growth models or the effect of inflation/ deflation come to mind. However, if we look at the economy through a lens of growth, stewardship, and equity, it can be thought of as another infrastructure; one that comingles with sustainability and resilience (social and environmental). Through this lens, there is a role for government, private and public investment, and the individual. In this model, for

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/invest/?utm_source=invest. gov

growth to be inclusive, it needs to be reflected in policy as well as budgets.

I am excited for the three bills passed by the current administration; one focusing on infrastructure, another on climate change, taxes and inflation, and a third on science and semi-conductors. The interactive map shown below highlights

Tonja Adair, AIA

private investments and public infrastructure, illustrating impacts from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act.

We are well into a digital transformation and energy transition that will continue to bring innovation and adaptation to industries worldwide. AI is around us. We will need to determine how to harness the technology, as one tool to help drive productivity with an emphasis on augmentation of our human capabilities. Incremental approaches to a more responsible consumption of resources will continue to inch us toward an inflection point of renewable energy sources making economic as well as zero carbon sense.

Programs that stem from Justice 40, The Climate Pollution Reduction and Green Bank Grants are down payments for longterm investment to encourage higher, more inclusive growth in our communities at large.

The Climate Pollution Reduction Grants Program Priority Action Plan for New York State was released March 1st of this year and shares the directives from the Climate Act (which took effect in New York State in January 2020) as:

• 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030

• 85% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050

• 70% renewable energy by 2030

• 100% zero-emission electricity by 2040

• 6,000 MW of solar by 2025

• 3,000 MW of energy storage by 2030

• 9,000 MW of offshore wind by 2035

• 185 trillion Btu of end-use energy savings

Embedded within these program directives are opportunities geared towards the knowledge and skills based in our architectural profession. These are forward leaning strategies that align with AIA’s current strategic plan to achieve zero-carbon, resilient, and regenerative built environments for all. The bills and programs set a stage where private and public sector investment along with organizations and individuals can step into driving collective action towards a better future. This is an opportunity to work with sister industries to form inter-disciplinary solutions with smarter design and cleaner technologies impacting new construction, renovations and retrofits that scale. Our current AIA President continually encourages us to harness our unique knowledge set by leveraging resilient solutions to filter through individual buildings to third spaces and beyond, elevating and prioritizing environmental sustainability, equity and the healthy systems our communities and cities need.

For economic growth to be sustainable and inclusive, we need to look at it in context of environmental and social objectives. As architects, we excel at creative thinking for achievable solutions; turning the desirable into deliverables for our clients. It is exciting to see the transformations in science and energy

Graphic: The Climate Action Collaborative identified Transportation, the Built Environment, and Waste Sectors as priorities for the PCAP. Taken from Priority Climate Action Plan for the Capital Region, March 1, 2024

sectors, and digital technologies. How we embed these renewable and non-renewable resources into design and our communities will drive demand for systems, materials, equipment, and services influencing our overall standard of living. Part of our collective stewardship is in how we measure the success of these ventures. Value will need to be seen through a lens beyond the traditional profit and loss attributed to standard economic models. This is not [economic] growth at all costs; instead it is growth that is aware of the costs to individuals, our communities and the planet. So get involved, join a committee, as well as a conversation, like those at the recent (Re) Connecting Communities Conference in Albany on May 9th. Discussions centered on how we can create connective designs. Keynote speaker Vishan Chakrabarti, FAIA, encouraged a thought process of infrastructure of opportunity, where we consider all that can create social mobility and connectedness. So, be inspired. Go to the AIA convention June 5-8th in DC to engage in more conversations. Take a broader view of the infrastructures that drive growth for our communities. I’m optimistic. Are you? l

Tonja, currently serving as the AIANYS Vice President of Communications & Public Awareness, has over 25 years of experience in architecture and design. She has managed diverse projects, including residential designs, public spaces, and both small and large retail and commercial structures, with assignments spanning internationally in Dubai and Santiago, and domestically in New Orleans, Georgia, and Florida.

Before founding Splice Design, Tonja spent a decade with Thompson Ventulett Stainback and Associates in Atlanta and also worked with Beyer Blinder Belle in New York. Her interest in urban design led her to post-graduate studies at Columbia University, where she focused on public realm vibrancy in New York City and Ecuador. Her research highlighted how spaces serve as innovative social infrastructure.

Tonja approaches architectural and urban design conceptually, emphasizing the impact of spaces on people’s experiences. She believes in collaborative client relationships to create resonant buildings and spaces, ensuring clear communication of design influences and their integration.

Splice Design is a women-owned studio + architectural design practice working across scales from interiors to buildings, and urban design strategies based in NYC and Atlanta. Tonja is a past president of the New York Chapter of the National Organization of Minority Architects and previously served as the AIA New York State Board Secretary.

Zetlin & De Chiara LLP, one of the country’s leading law firms, has built a reputation on counseling clients through complex issues. Whether negotiating a contract, resolving a dispute, or providing guidance to navigate the construction process, Zetlin & De Chiara is recognized as a “go-to firm for construction.”

MAY ‘24

ARCHITECTURE NEW YORK STATE is a quarterly publication developed by AIA New York State, 50 State Street, Albany, NY 12207

For questions, comments and editorial content ideas, contact Robin Styles-Lopez, Director of Communications at rstyles-lopez@aianys.org or 518.449.3334.