THE FUTURE ISSUE
FEATURING WHAT AUSTRALIA CAN LEARN FROM DUBAI GLOBAL CHALLENGES IN BIM
INSIGHTS INTO THE FUTURE AND THE AUSTRALIAN CONSULTANTS WHO BUILD IT
MARCH 2016
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BIM GLOBAL
Exactal Director Simon Lovegrove AAIQS looks at the challenges faced worldwide in differing regions as they seek to implement their own version of the BIM solution.
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The last (and all-too-often under-valued) phase of any project is a proper closeout, including a thorough lessons learned analysis. Eight students from Bond University recently worked with the AIQS Dubai chapter, to take this concept of ‘lessons learned analysis’ to an entirely new dimension.
Contributing Editor Stephanie Ifill Graphic Designer Guilherme Santos CEO Grant Warner
03 07 08 38 REGULARS 44 MAR 2016 CONTENTS
Australia learn?
INSIGHTS INTO THE FUTURE AND THE AUSTRALIAN CONSULTANTS WHO BUILD IT
Success in future demands a constant eye on the question, ‘are we innovating at a sufficiently rapid pace to equip us for future growth and success as individual consultancies and contractors, and collectively as an industry?’ Perhaps more importantly, given our geographical proximity to quickly growing Asian nations, is the question, ‘are we innovating quickly enough to compete with the consultants and contractors from other developed nations who must surely be aware of the huge opportunities that a rapidly-growing Asia presents?’
CHALLENGES
DUBAI What can
COVER STORY
Editorial Contributions The Australian Institute of Quantity Surveying encourages readers to submit their articles relating to quantity surveying, the built environment and associated industries including; construction economics, cost estimating, cost planning, contract administration, project engineering and the macroenvironment. T: +61 (02) 8234 4009 E: marketing@aiqs.com.au
SNAP SHOT
FROM THE CEO
COVER STORY
EVENTS & SOCIAL
BUILDING COST INDEX AVAILABLE IN PRINT ONLY
Subscriptions The Building Economist is available to AIQS Members online. If you would like to receive the print version, subscribe for 1 year (4 editions) for $220 (inc. GST) or purchase a single edition for $55 (inc. GST) at www.aiqs.com.au. Disclaimer The Institute does not take any responsibility for the opinions express by any third parties
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involved in the development of the Building Economist Magazine.
THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 1
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SNAPSHOT INDUSTRY NEWS
REVOLUTIONISING THE WAY AUSTRALIANS BUILD THEIR HOMES The newest modular prefabrication construction technology has been unveiled
The GBCA launched the Green Star rating system in 2003, and since then has certified more than 1,050 buildings, communities and fitouts throughout Australia. IWBI administers the WELL Building Standard™ (WELL), a performance-based system for measuring, certifying and monitoring features of the built environment that impact human health through air, water, nourishment, light, fitness, comfort and mind. The two organisations announced the new partnership at the Green Cities 2016 conference in Sydney, after signing a memorandum of understanding which outlines their commitment to work towards common goals. “A truly sustainable building not only addresses environmental impact, but social and economic impact too. Green Star’s focus on indoor environmental quality provides a critical foundation for human health and well-being – one which WELL enhances through its dedicated focus on evidence-based medical and scientific research and measurable performance,” says the GBCA’s Chief Executive Officer, Romilly Madew. The organisations will now work together to identify opportunities to align the two rating systems, develop events and education offerings, and promote building practices that improve the health and well-being of occupants. Green Business Certification Inc. (GBCI), which provides third-party certification for the WELL Building Standard, will also support efforts to promote and deliver WELL across Australia.
“A TRULY SUSTAINABLE BUILDING NOT ONLY ADDRESSES ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT, BUT SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT TOO” The GBCA and IWBI have agreed to work collaboratively to promote health and well-being in the design, construction and operations of buildings, fitouts and communities in Australia. The newest modular prefabrication construction technology has been unveiled to industry with the aim of revolutionising the way Australians build their homes. The new proprietary construction system, Modulum, is being implemented in 12 new sites across Sydney and promises to reduce the time and costs associated with traditional construction methods. A family home can be designed and built in as little as 12 weeks when using Modulum’s proprietary wall system, roofing system and suspended flooring system. The technology means it can also be customised to any site, allowing for each home design to be unique and enjoy cross ventilation, thermal performance and orientation to site. “Australia’s unique environmental factors are now being addressed through innovative construction technologies, while increasing labour costs and trade skills shortages are forcing the need for efficiency. Modulum removes human error and generates zero waste. Far less time on site is required to build a home. Combined this greatly reduces the overall cost of the build for the client,” said Mr Little, Modulum’s managing director. Modulum is made up of patented, sophisticated composite structures that ensure the external fabric of the building is low maintenance, requiring no painting or up keeping, while also providing a highly efficient insulation system for the home. It also caters for Australia’s harsh conditions, meeting regulation bush fire, flood and heritage related controls; and it is termite proof. “We believe that great design and great quality should be affordable,” said Mr Little. - Modulum is a grant recipient of the Australian Government's Industrial Transformation Research Program and provides PhD Candidate Scholarships as a Training Centre for Advanced Manufacturing of Prefabricated Housing For more information visit http://www.modulum.com.au/
For more information, please visit http:// www.wellcertified.com THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 3
SNAPSHOT INDUSTRY NEWS
BUILDING FOR THE FUTURE - A GLOBAL DILEMMA Registrations are open for the 2016 Pacific
Association of Quantity Surveyors (PAQS) Congress PAQS comprises of professional quantity surveying members from China, Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Canada, South Africa, Brunei, Sri Lanka, Fiji and of course, New Zealand. The 2016 Congress is to be held in Christchurch on May 20-24th 2016, with 300-400 delegates expected. After a sequence of large earthquakes during 2010 and 2011 which had devastating effects on both the community and the city itself, Christchurch is re-emerging as a vibrant and ever-changing city. The earthquakes have provided an unprecedented opportunity to rethink, revitalise and renew the city of Christchurch. With the city in the midst of being reimagined, it makes it a particularly relevant and timely host destination for PAQS 2016. The theme for the Congress is "Building for the Future – A Global Dilemma". The congress aims to explore the new and innovative building construction structures and techniques that are being used not only in Christchurch but worldwide as the increase in devastating world weather events causes the construction community (architects, engineers, quantity surveyors, environmentalists) to rethink the way buildings are constructed and the need to reduce the cost escalations and construction time frames. For more information and to register, visit http://www.paqs2016.com
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THE RISE OF THE BIM MANAGER
With more than 70% of firms using Building Information Modelling (BIM) on over 30% of architectural design projects*, a new breed of tech-savvy architects are rising to the fore. BIM Managers with a high degree of specialist expertise in design software and technologies are becoming an indispensable feature of leading architectural firms. Peddle Thorp, a progressive architecture, planning and interior design practice with offices across Queensland, led the charge to adopt BIM workflow over five years ago and saw a positive ROI over an estimated four years. “For our clients this is a revelation, they no longer have to imagine the structure and think about contingencies. When our digital drawings are combined with gaming technology such as virtual reality devices, it means they can virtually ‘walk through’ the building to provide feedback on design.” Successful BIM Managers must have a complete understanding of all aspects of design and construction from every stakeholder’s perspective as well as a grasp and passion for technology. Mark Cronin, Peddle Thorp’s Design Systems Manager says, 'the seamless use of technology means that design issues and decisions are resolved rightly at design stages, and not at a later and more costly stage on site. " The role enables better multi-party communications by managing the flow of project information through a well-structured methodology. The result is improved client satisfaction, increased ROI and higher quality building projects. BIM also provides advantages for future work, such as hospital refurbishments. By reviewing the project models, a team member can see every detail of every material, right down to an individual light fixture—from manufacturer and lead time through to performance level. This edition of the Industry News was brought to you in association with Union Square an international software’s company. *http://www.consultaustralia.com. au/docs/default-source/bim/ the-business-value-of-bim-inaustralia-new-zealand.pdf
SNAPSHOT AIQS NEWS
GAIN GREATER EXPOSURE FOR YOUR COMPANY VIA THE A-LIST The A-List is the go-to business register for all
THE AIQS ACADEMY
During the course of 2016, the Academy will roll out up to 100 topics.
enquiries received by the Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors. As the leading Association for Quantity Surveying in Australia, we regularly receive enquiries from organisations looking to engage the skills of a Quantity Surveyor. As part of our future strategy, the Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors (AIQS) will be actively engaging representatives within government and the industry, in order to promote the value of quantity surveying and the benefits of engaging a quantity surveyor. Benefits with your subscription: • A 12 month online listing on the A-List, the go-to register used by the AIQS who regularly receive enquiries from organisations and individuals looking to engage Quantity Surveyors • 20% discount on all listings if you have more than one business location listing • The A-List will be actively marketed via the AIQS - including on our website, throughout our e-bulletins and magazine, social media and printed marketing materials • Marketing of your business to corporations and Commonwealth, State and Territory governments while the Institute advocates the reasons for engaging a Quantity Surveyor • 10% discount on other AIQS Advertising rates • An invitation to the A-List Lunch for your region, providing an excellent opportunity to network So jump the queue, register now and be the first to start receiving new clients! To view the A-List and sign up to start your listing please visit http://www.aiqsalist.com.au
With 52 Academy topics now live there has never been a better time to start investing in training for your employees or project team members. The Academy has recently released the ability to prepurchase the Academy Certificate (100 topics). Each individual who completes the Academy Certificate will receive a professional certificate of recognition. The Academy can be used as your 'official organisational training' and can help up-skill employees and project teams on best practice in quantity surveying. By purchasing the Academy Certificate, you will receive the maximum discount possible - SAVE up to $1,500! For more information about the academy or to purchase topis please visit http://www.aiqsacademy.com
SERIOUS ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY
AIQS is seeking articles on Sustainability for the June edition of the Building Economist Promote your key achievements to the industry and gain added exposure for yourself, your projects and your organisation by submitting your article for the upcoming edition of the Building Economist. The focus for the June 2016 edition of the Building Economist is Sustainability. This edition will explore sustainability in terms of eco-friendly projects, where environment sustainability is the key to successful outcomes and industry-leading sustainable practices that enable a 'longer life' in terms of building and construction. How did your project develop and adhere to 'sustainable' practices and what were the benefits that were delivered to the project, the environment and the future of the built environment? Submit your article or express your interest to marketing@ aiqs.com.au to be involved now.
THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 5
navigate • select • succeed Conduit Recruitment: Conduit Recruitment
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Conduit Recruitment are the for the the Australian Institute of preferred Quantityrecruitment Surveyors.agency In partnership Australian of Quantity Surveyors. In partnership with with themInstitute we provide: them we provide: • Recruitment services to builders, consultants and developers
• Recruitment services to builders, consultants and developers – see our website for our sectors and strengths – see our website for our sectors and strengths
• Advice on recruitment matters and HR solutions within the • Advice on recruitment matters and HR solutions within the construction industry
construction industry • Salary surveys • Sponsorship of various events including AIQS Annual Dinners, AIQS CPD Events, Excellence in • Sponsorship of various events including AIQS Annual Dinners, Construction Awards, PIF Yacht Regattas, Young Engineers Awards and many others AIQSCPD Events, Excellence in Construction Awards, PIF Yacht Regattas, • Seminars on relevent industry issues such as OH&S, Staff Retention, Recruitment Strategies, Emerging Young Engineers Awards and many others Trends, Economic Forecasts, Workplace Relations, Staff Contract Law, etc • Seminars on relevant industry issues such as OH&S, Staff Retention, Recruitment Strategies, Emerging Trends, Economic Forecasts, Please direct all queries to Greg Ford at Workplace Relations, Staff Contract Law, etc • Salary surveys
gregf@conduitgroup.com.au or call him on 02 9929 7224. Please direct all queries to Joe Brownell at joeb@conduitgroup.com.au or call him on 02 8277 5200. For all our current vacancies see our website www.conduitgroup.com.au For all our current vacancies see our website www.conduitgroup.com.au
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FROM THE CEO
THE FUTURE ISSUE
Here we are at the end of the third quarter for 2015-16, and it’s been a busy time for the Institute. Implementation of the Strategic Plan is well underway, with a number of new initiatives being rolled out in the immediate to near future. The Academy is live on the Institute’s website with approximately 50 topics released to date, and another 50 topics scheduled to be released over the coming months. This initiative is well on its way to becoming the fundamental source of quality Quantity Surveying education, enabling those seeking Institute membership via Pathway 2 to meet the academic entry requirements by completing the assigned 100 topics (coined the AIQS Academy Certificate). Individual specialist topics can also be purchased in order for members to maintain their CPD requirements. We all understand the importance of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) – it is ultimately a fundamental part of being a Quantity Surveying professional and ensures your continued competence over the course of your career. It is useful to think of CPD as a tool to stay relevant and up to date within your role and the knock-on effects of this may lead to increased public confidence in individuals and the profession as a whole. AIQS is developing a new CPD framework that will be applicable from 1 July 2016. We will be moving away from the current triennium based 40 hours to an annual 15 CPD point system, which is in essence only an extra two CPD points per year. To assist members meeting these new requirements we will be developing and implementing increased CPD offerings across the country. The Institute’s office staff will be working more collaboratively with Chapters in identifying and facilitating an increased
range of CPD going forward, from webinars, face-to-face presentations, and Academy topics. Members will be required to lodge their CPD records annually and this will easily be done via the AIQS website. Coupled with the establishment of a new CPD framework is the implementation of the Certified Quantity Surveyor (CQS) status, which will also be available in the next financial year. This certification will be available to Corporate Members of the Institute, and will be marketed to all levels of government, corporate Australia, the ATO, and financial institutions, as the pre-eminent qualification for quantity surveying professionals. The new CPD and CQS arrangements are part of Institute’s drive to raise the profile of the Quantity Surveying profession and the role the Institute plays in ensuring members maintain the highest possible professional and technical standards. In line with plans to drive stakeholder engagement and ultimately providing a one-stop-shop for all of the Quantity Surveying profession, we will be establishing national committees covering Education & CPD, Standards (professional & technical), and Communications to assist with identifying issues and providing an additional mechanism for increased member engagement. We will be looking to engage with members to actively participate on these national committees to assist in driving increased services and information to both Institute members and external stakeholders.
“We will be moving away from the current triennium based 40 hours to an annual 15 CPD point system” One of the highlights of AIQS’s calendar, the Infinite Value Awards (IVA), will be held on Thursday 27 October at the Four Points by Sheraton in Darling Harbour. This year promises to highlight Partnerships in Construction and the award categories have been revamped to showcase collaborations across the Built Environment. We encourage you to bring along your clients, team members and all stakeholders involved to celebrate your successes! The focus of the IVA is no longer an internal pat-on-the-back for the profession, but rather to provide a platform for members’ firms to market themselves externally to the broader construction industry, funders, government, and associated industries, through the various awards. The primary winners on the night will be your clients and allied professionals, so get involved early. Nominations will open and Early-bird tickets will be available from May so get in early to secure you table.
Grant Warner
CEO The Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors
THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 7
COVER STORY
COVER STORY What might be significantly different about the built environment in the future? Are we innovating at a sufficient pace to equip us for future growth? We start this 'Cover Story' by looking at trend forecasts through the eye of a Quantity Surveyor. What are the trends of which we should be concerned? What are the filters through which we should analyses them to determine the optimum way forward for our own practices? Better defining data positions one to define a vision and a strategy, and furthermore, avoids potential threats.
Authors The following authors have contributed to the development of this article.
Alan Patching (FAIQS) Professor at Bond University
Alan Patching is a Fellow (Ret) of the AIQS and professor of Project Management and Construction Management Practice at Bond University. He has extensive experience working overseas and actively follows trends as a basis for advising current students. Alan has negotiated some of the largest property deals in the country’s history including the purchase of Chifley Tower from the Bond Corporation, several record breaking leases and the deal to bring Tiffany of New York to Australia. He was the CEO of the owning entity of the Sydney Olympic Stadium, and was the owner’s project director for the largest Olympic Stadium ever built.
Chris Caton
Chief Economist, BT Financial Group
Over the past few years Dr Caton has accurately foreseen many movements in the economy, both globally and locally, and has openly shared these predictions with the AIQS community at our yearly seminar. During a breakfast seminar in Sydney on 1st February 2016, Chris offered key insights into the international forces affecting the Australian economy, including what’s going on in the US, Europe and China. Chris presented detailed analyses of past, present and future predictions for movements in the economy, both nationally and internationally. Chris also advised on sound investment strategies in order to maximise return on investments and to minimise risks.
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Insights into the future and the
Australian consultants who build it By Professor Alan Patching FAIQS, Bond University. I once presented with a well-known economics journalist at a formal dinner for Adelaide’s business leaders. I was the curtain raiser and he the main event (a circumstance for which Quantity Surveying had prepared me well!) As we took the stage, the organiser asked us to conclude with comments regarding what might be significantly different about doing business in Australia in the future. This was well before the days of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) but subconscious force triggered my suggestion that corporations that benefited from flourishing in a community would be expected to contribute to the benefit of that community in financial and other tangible ways. I was happy with the insights I had delivered, making (I suspect) a total of one in that room who thought that way. Verbalising the collective thoughts of the room, my journo colleague countered that the duty of corporations was to maximise
value and return to shareholders, not for a moment thinking that helping the community might in any way achieve that objective. He also chastised that I was confusing the roles of private and public sectors, something that was never productive in a market economy. He was, of course, correct in corporate principle. Galactically short-sighted, but correct in corporate principle. He’d answered a question about the future with an emphasis on status quo, which will seldom be a good way to prepare for the future. Thankfully, time has shown he was also altogether wrong, with CSR now a major marketing cornerstone of most all community-minded organisations worldwide. The lesson is that there will never be a shortage of people and organisations proffering prophesy, but even a strong agreement on future probabilities doesn’t make them certainties, and it doesn’t
THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 9
mean that all probabilities have been included in discussion, the latter point well demonstrated by the GFC, for example. I believe looking at trend forecasts through the critical eye of a QS, but then applying long proven approaches to business/ practice leadership and management constitutes the best possible approach to always being in the best position to sustainably exploit the future. This begs the questions, what are the trends with which we should be concerned? And what are the filters through which we should analyse them to determine the optimum way forward for our own practices?
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A likely increase in the number of middle class consumers, which is anticipated to reach 3 billion across Asia by 2030. This could trigger an increase in the amount of money available for investment off-shore and increase demand for higher standards of consumables and therefore of retail outlets, and also higher standards and more variety in business and vacation accommodation options, all with potential impact on regional property markets.
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An expectation for a Chinese tourism (expected to realise up to $20 billion in revenue) led a mini boom in hospitality-related infrastructure in Australia and has been the subject of industry specific publications and discussions. This stands as evidence of the Asian growth impacts to which I refer. Several reports reference the significant increase in hotel rooms currently being considered or already under design or construction.
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Demand for higher levels of education, with offshore education preferred by many, and Australia becoming the obvious choice for many because of a weakening dollar, strong reputation in education and post-graduation visa availability for professionals in certain fields. I already see this trend manifest in classes I teach at Bond, with international student numbers rising strongly in recent years. However, a study of increasing student numbers combined with a review of those seeking education away from home reveals India to be a strong market on both counts. Here is my question for readers, ‘If youngsters from these countries see sufficient opportunity in our industry, in our country to convince them to leave their families at a relatively young age, learn a new and difficult language and study in that language, should we not reflect on the opportunity they see.
Let’s begin with a review of just a few key trends.
A FEW IMPORTANT TRENDS Several accountants and economists publish trends and forecasts relevant to many number of industry sectors. The number these days prompts the question becomes, ‘which should we consider in any strategic market analysis? From reading these trend forecasts and interviewing a couple of well-known figures in international economics in 2014 (one being an economic advisor to President Obama), I think the following would be relevant to any astute developer, contractor or consultant:
THE ASIA SITUATION One could fill this entire edition of BE several times over with comments on Asia alone. The most salient factors appear to me to be: •
A growth factor north of 6% in several large Asian countries, notably China and India, which might represent a slow-down compared with past figures for those countries but still is nearly triple the world average, and well above western countries generally.
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Both the well-known economics writer, Harry Dent Jr. of the USA and Obama administration economics advisor, John Thomas, told me in 2014 discussions that many wealthy Chinese would rather take a risk on Australian property dropping 2535% than keep all their cash in a bank that could be ‘raided’ or heavily taxed with little or no pre-warning or consultation. The point is Australian businesses in property and construction could do well to change their thinking from reasons they might want to invest in our economy (which could result in a conclusion that a particular stream of investment is unlikely to continue) and start thinking from the perspective of those who are actually currently investing. They might then be in a position to make a better judgement regarding the extent of future investment that just might be likely and what opportunities this presents for their businesses. These could arise from either an ongoing and increasing level of Asian investment in property and construction in Australia, or from opportunities that could be created by the quickly increasing numbers of middle class families in countries like India and Vietnam, creating demand for a higher standard of consumables and services within their own countries.
INNOVATION BECOMES REALLY SEXY Continuing innovation will be crucial to the success of every country and every business in the decades ahead. Few question Australia’s reputation for being innovative. We made our mark in many fields – from medical research (Aspro, ultrasound technology, spray on skin technology and the bionic ear – Cochlear implant) and aviation (aircraft escape slides that double as life rafts, the ‘black box’ and various navigation aids) to high speed WiFi and plastic polymer bank notes, to name just a few. There’s been innovation in our industry as well, especially in materials. However,
do we really believe we’ve reached the ultimate in contractual delivery systems, paperless project management and administration, and even simple cross contract human collaboration? Few project and contracts managers with whom I interact have time for the simple ‘lessons learned’ exercise recommended for the completion of projects. These could trigger some minor but very useful innovation. We’ve innovated in the area of documents preparation and BIM technology, but there is more to be done if we are not to be hallmarked with the characteristic of doing what works well enough, as fast and as often as possible with little investment in taking a collective breather to find a better, more effective – and possible better-valuefor-money approach to many aspects of construction and development. Success in future demands a constant eye on the question, ‘are we innovating at a sufficiently rapid pace to equip us for future growth and success as individual consultancies and contractors, and collectively as an industry?’ Perhaps more important, given our geographical proximity to quickly growing Asian nations, is the question, ‘are we innovating quickly enough to compete with the consultants and contractors from other developed nations who must surely be aware of the huge opportunities that a rapidly-growing Asia presents?’
HEALTH The aging population, combined with a ‘she’ll be right, mate’ attitude to dietary discipline, is likely to present increasing demand for age and health care facilities, but that one is easy to see. What is more difficult to grasp is an expected megamove by current 40-somethings, having seen their parents suffer unenviable sunset years, towards a significantly more preventative rather than curative attitude to health care. It will most likely mean a move
THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 11
towards preventative testing and health maintenance program establishment. From a property perspective, the question concerns whether this expected new source of demand for services would be satisfied from existing medico-health facilities or from newly established local and regional centres.
DEFINING A STRATEGY The biggest mistake organisations can make is to fit a strategy to a current opinion or sense about the market environment in which it operates without first renewing and reviewing all the relevant available data. The key trends I identified earlier are by no means extensive, but rather are included to give an insight into the types of areas a serious organisational strategic planner might be seeking data upon which to structure a sound strategic plan. Data collection should not only be about trends. However, commencing with expert sourced trends data can serve to broaden outlook in the larger strategic planning exercise. Collecting and reviewing the relevant trends defining data better positions one to define a vision, strategy and strategic objectives to exploit market opportunities. Furthermore, a thorough internal audit and external audit can provide the data for an effective identification of internal strengths and weaknesses, external opportunities and threats that will provide insight into how best to progress that exploitation. Resist the urge to stop there in your strategic analysis. Champion business people always identify one further factor – a crucial factor - the Critical Success Factor(s). It is often the critical success factor that enable us to complete a useful gap analysis, in which we can identify the shortcomings our organisation has in relation to delivering its strategy. Critical success factors almost invariably include
some reference to key people skills. To launch a strategy without identifying and closing a critical gap in the ‘people’ area is folly indeed. For example, if you were to decide to move forward with a focus on involvement with projects involving Chinese investors or developers, whether that was in Australia or elsewhere, it would be smart to employ some Mandarinspeaking professionals. Fortunately, the attraction of Australian education is producing outstanding young bi-lingual professionals upon whom we can call.
DEVELOPING A MARKETING PLAN TO DELIVER THAT STRATEGY The essence of all good marketing strategy has been the four ‘P’ principle. This simple approach says marketing success follows from a thorough review of the following: •
Product: what you intend to promote within a particular market segment
•
Price: the price at which you intend to promote that product or range of products within a specific market segment
•
Promotion: the techniques and tools you will use to promote specific products at specific prices within clearly defined market segments, and
•
Place: where you will conduct that promotion of those products at those prices
For any consultancy or contracting organisation contemplating future business strategy based on current broader regional market and economic trends, these four ‘filters’ remain important. I would counsel adding one more – people/partnering. Previous off-shore opportunities (south east Asia in the eighties, Middle East since the 90s) has shown the importance of collaborating with local partners with whom you have taken the time and effort to establish strong and trusting relationships.
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2016 Global Economic Outlook By Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial Group The start of the year 2016 has delivered several consecutive negative months for the Australian share market, with February being no exception. The ASX200 fell by a further 2.5% after its 5.5% drop in January. In mid-February, it entered “bear market” territory, being down by more than 20% from its late-April 2015 peak. On about the same day, the ASX200 dropped below the value it had recorded 10 years earlier. Of course that doesn’t mean that share-market investors have experienced zero returns over the past decade; the accumulation index, which takes account of dividend payments was up by 57% over the same interval. The US share market (as measured by the S&P500 index) fell by 0.4%, its third successive monthly decline. The Dow was actually up for the month, albeit by just 0.3%. Last month I suggested that markets were being driven by (an exaggerated) fear of severe global economic weakness or recession. That remains the case. These concerns can alternatively be listed as China, currency wars, commodity prices (particularly oil), capital flows (particularly from the emerging world to the developing world) and credit spreads. In the matter of currencies, there are two that have played a significant role in economic and market developments in the past two years. One, in
my view, has largely escaped credit/blame, while the other has received too much. The one that has escaped attention is the US dollar, which has risen by more than 25% since mid-2014, with its rise being the main reason why the Australian dollar has fallen. There is a symbiotic relationship between this rise and the fall in the world oil price and the US dollar. The rise in the big buck has made it hard for US manufacturing and has cut into the offshore earnings of listed US companies, thus holding back the US share market. The currency that has taken too much of the blame for financial-market gyrations is the Chinese Yuan (or Renmimbi as it is known to its friends). In mid-August last year, the Yuan was devalued by about 2% (the peg against the US dollar was moved by that amount). This was interpreted by many as the catalyst for significant sharemarket weakness around the world. Then in December, the Chinese authorities announced that the currency would henceforth be managed with respect to a basket of currencies (a trade-weighted index in effect), although it would of course, still be quoted against the US dollar. In early January, the peg against the US dollar was moved significantly and once again this caused paroxysms in global financial markets. So what are the Chinese up to?
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Nothing nearly as sinister as many have concluded. Bear in mind that the currency is pegged to the US dollar, which has appreciated significantly since mid-2014. So if nothing were done, the Chineese currency would go up. And this is what has happened. In looking at the Yuan’s trade-weighted index, the currency has been dragged up in recent years because of the strength of the US dollar, by more than 25% since 2011. And all that the recent moves have done is to stabilise the value of the currency. Furthermore, it’s actually the market, rather than the authorities, moving the currency. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) stands ready on any day to buy or sell the yuan in order to maintain the peg. And recently it has been doing far more buying than selling. So the authorities are actually holding the currency up, preventing the market from moving it down. Of course, to do this, the Bank has been selling part of its foreign exchange reserves in order to buy the Yuan. The risk is that one day the PBoC decides that this is no longer a desirable use of its foreign exchange reserves (of which there are still a lot), and so decides to clear out the speculators by engineering a significant one-time devaluation, say of 10%. Were that to occur, the paper
would again hit the fan in global financial markets. But knowledge of this likely outcome is the biggest reason why it will never be allowed to happen. For the other factors on the list— commodity prices, credit spreads and capital flows—February appears to have brought some kind of stabilisation. Key OPEC members have agreed to hold output at the current levels, with the result that oil prices appear to have finally bottomed, while iron ore prices, while remaining volatile, have also moved up. Credit spreads ( junk bond yields) remain high, particularly for US energy companies. And no wonder. The average (not marginal) cost of extracting a barrel of oil for North American oil producers is about $68, while the price is less than half of that. Hence the need for debt financing. Importantly, however, spreads no longer appear to be widening.
MEANWHILE BACK IN AUSTRALIA I’m writing this on the eve of the Q4 2015 GDP result. This is likely to show continued sluggish growth. The partials to date suggest that the much-looked for recovery in non-mining capital spending is still over the horizon somewhere. The January jobs data showed an unwelcome increase in the unemployment rate, from 5.8% to 6%, but it is probably best to treat that as more statistical “noise” than “signal”. There is no evidence that the economy is getting worse, but nor is it improving dramatically. The latest housing data shows a welcome stabilisation in prices and a significant pullback in growth in lending to domestic investors (some of this may be a classification issue; it now behoves some who may previously have been classified as investors to identify as owner-occupiers). The tax reform debate drags on, with trial balloons launched and then shot down, most notably a higher GST. In my opinion, the debate went wrong when it was couched as tax reform (roughly speaking, revenue neutral) rather than an acknowledgement of the need either to raise taxes or to cut back the rate of growth of spending (or a bit of both), in the name of
budget repair. Once one talks about merely changing the tax mix, it all becomes very difficult. Economic modelling suggests that there would be positive effects from using a higher GST to finance lower corporate taxes, for example, but such a shift is close to political suicide. If we admitted to ourselves that we will one day need more revenue, then the obvious candidates are the “big” taxes; the GST and personal income taxes. In the case of the latter, raising rates appears to be anathema; indeed the call is for lower rates to offset the pernicious effects of “bracket creep”; effects that have been massively exaggerated. But if you don’t want to raise rates, then the obvious thing to do is to look at “leakages”— the major ways used to avoid paying more income tax than otherwise. Hence the focus on negative gearing and superannuation tax concessions. The latter are still to be canvassed but they certainly will be. The negative gearing issue is a complex one; too complex to deal with properly here. A possible “solution” is to cap the losses that can be claimed, or to reduce the capital gains tax discount, which would take a lot of fun out of the negative gearing game. On 1 March, the RBA elected to hold the cash rate steady once again. It remains a reluctant cutter and I continue to believe that 2% is the floor. Over the course of January, the Australian dollar was rangebound, between 70.3 and 72.4 US cents, finishing at 71.7 cents. My end-of-year forecast remains 67 cents. I have again reduced my end-of-year forecast for the ASX200, from 5500 to 5400.
THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 15
AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF QUANTITY SURVEYORS
AIQS Academy CertiďŹ cate Available Now Save $1,500!
The AIQS Academy The AIQS Academy is an on demand, online training portal available for all Quantity Surveying professionals. This platform provides further CPD options to AIQS Members or Non-Members and can be accessed from a location of your choice. Each topic takes approximately two hours, but completion can be at your own pace and work around your busy schedule. During the course of 2016, the AIQS Academy will roll out up to 100 topics. The topics available have been individually reviewed and assessed at the highest standard expected by the AIQS for continuing professional development. The AIQS Education Committee will regularly review and update the offerings of the Academy, to ensure a wide ranging and relevant topics. The Academy can be used for your organisational training, enhancing the professional skills of your Quantity Surveyors.
Meet AIQS Membership Entry Requirements
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The Academy can be used as a pathway to AIQS Membership by ensuring you have the necessary skills required to meet the Institute’s academic entry requirements.
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Applicants seeking Institute Membership with a partially qualifying degree (Pathway 2), will be able to meet the academic entry requirements by completing the 100 Academy topics available.
The Academy provides continuing professional development (CPD) opportunities for AIQS Members and Non-Members.
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Undertaking CPD ensures your skills remain current and relevant in addition to ensuring you fulfill your requirements for continued membership.
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AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF QUANTITY SURVEYORS
Topics Available as at 31 March 2016 General Procurement Advice - Provide Input into the Development of the Project Brief - Collect Procurement Requirements - Evaluate Project Delivery Systems - Undertake Constructability Analysis
Basic Skills - Basic Measurement Skills - Communication Skills - Personal & Interpersonal Skills - Business & Management Skills - Computers & IT Essentials - Construction Law & Regulation - Diversity in the Workplace - Safety in the Workplace - Professional Practice - Construction Technology
Construction Change Management - Establish Extent of Proposed and Actual Scope Changes - Manage Cost Claims During Construction Resource Analysis
Budgetary Process - Cost Management & Monitoring Procedures - Cash Flow - Budgeting for Projects - Preparing Cost Reports Cost Estimating - Preparing Estimates - Developing Cost Components Cost Planning - Analyse & Advise on Various Alternative Design Solutions - Project Cost Objectives & Parameters - Prepare Cost Plan - Prepare Project Implementation & Procurement Plan - Analyse Time Related Cost Data - Cost Estimate Using the Time Related Data - Data Required to Prepare Cost Plans - Provide Advice on Cost Plan to Client
Measurement of Building Works - Preliminaries - Demolition - Ground works – Excavation, Filling & Hardcore, Paper & Plastic Membranes - Ground works – Underpinning & Rock Stabilisation - Driven Piling & Cast Insitu Piling - Formwork - Insitu Concrete - Prestressing - Reinforcement Claims & Dispute Resolution - Establish Background and Collect Data - Negotiate Claims Under Contract - Dispute Resolution Processes - Expert Witness Financial Audit - Bank Reports
Tender Process - Prepare Documentation Inputs to the Tender - Evaluate & Award of Tenders
Contact AIQS Level 3 70 Pitt St Sydney NSW 2000 +61 2 8234 4000 education@aiqs.com.au
How do I purchase Academy topics? Visit www.aiqsacademy.com.au to sign-in or create a login before viewing or purchasing the topics available. How much does a topic cost and are there discounts available for AIQS Members? - Members = $65 per topic and Non-Members = $75. - Purchase topic bundles (5-10) to receive up to a 20% discount. - Pre-purchase all 100 Topics and save $1,500. (Members = $5,000, Non-Members = $6,000).
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INSIGHT
Global Challenges in BIM
From small beginnings in a suburb of Brisbane in 2003, Exactal’s presence in eight global offices supports CostX users in seventy countries. As a 5D BIM and digital estimating tool, the uptake of CostX has both contributed to and benefitted from the new paradigm of technology in the global QS profession. From this unique perspective, Exactal Director Simon Lovegrove AAIQS MRICS looks at the challenges faced worldwide in differing regions as they seek to implement their own version of the BIM solution.
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In the past twelve months, members of Exactal’s QS team have presented on the topic of 5D BIM and digital measurement to audiences at events in such diverse locations as Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Dubai, Oman, Toronto, Vancouver, Las Vegas, Phoenix, London, Manchester, Dublin and others. The level of interest is invariably high – a recent AIQS CPD event in Muscat attracted more than 100 attendees – and demand seems set to continue. Each location has its own perspective on BIM but the common thread driving this demand across all locations is a desire for practical advice on BIM implementation. Awareness of BIM is high and most people have a grasp of the theory, but what they are looking for is guidance on what BIM actually means on a day-to-day project basis and how it will directly affect them. The “what’s in it for me” reaction is a very human response which is why it’s universal. It emphasises that the key to successful BIM implementation lies in education and training. Within this context, it’s interesting to look at what’s happening in different parts of the world and compare this to the Australian experience.
“
The difference between Australia and the UK is particularly interesting. Australia’s BIM journey started as a bottom-up, grass-
roots driven movement which took the widespread introduction of a particular BIM authoring application as a catalyst for industry practitioners to innovate and explore new workflows. The work was primarily done on a project-by-project basis dealing with challenges as they arose with teams basically making it up as they went along. Quantity Surveyors were well placed to participate owing to the prevalence of CostX in Australia. At the time, there was little published guidance available so protocols were either developed on their own or adapted from US-based material. It may not have been full-blown BIM, but the result of making the effort to work in model-based environments was to equip the practitioners involved with an extremely high level of practical, applied-BIM experience at a project level. What was completely lacking was any kind of government or industry lead to co-ordinate these efforts and establish national standards. Conversely, the UK’s top-down approach stemmed from a Government Construction Strategy Cabinet Paper published in May 2011, which identified the importance of construction to the UK economy and highlighted the need to improve productivity and eliminate waste. It is instructive to quote directly from the strategy:
Building Information Modelling 2.29 At the industry’s leading edge, there are companies which have the capability of working in a fully collaborative 3D environment, so that all of those involved in a project are working on a shared platform with reduced transaction costs and less opportunity for error; but construction has generally lagged behind other industries in the adoption of the full potential offered by digital technology. 2.30 A lack of compatible systems, standards and protocols, and the differing requirements of clients and lead designers, have inhibited widespread adoption of a technology which has the capacity to ensure that all team members are working from the same data, and that: • the implications of alternative design proposals can be evaluated with comparative ease; • projects are modelled in three dimensions (eliminating coordination errors and subsequent expensive change); • design data can be fed direct to machine tools, creating a link between design and manufacture and eliminating unnecessary intermediaries; and • there is a proper basis for asset management subsequent to construction
”
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Five years later, several standards are in place and so much work has been done that to an extent, the plethora of material in the UK market has already lead to a measure of BIM fatigue before the mandate even comes into effect. The conundrum is that despite having the standards to follow and all of the educational material at their disposal, large sections of the UK industry particularly in the SME area remain largely ignorant of how to go about working with BIM and still lag well behind many of their Australian counterparts in this area. What they need to do is stop talking about BIM and start actually doing it, preferably by starting small rather than trying to jump straight in at Level 2. Their main problem is that most of their published material is too high level. PAS 1192-2 seems wildly esoteric. They need some practical implementation advice, which based on the project experience they have already gained, Australian practitioners are probably amongst the best equipped in the world to give to them. Ironically, in comparing the two approaches, most UK commentators will talk about how Australia lags behind the UK and is “following their lead”. It’s understandable that they would see it that way, and at a national level it’s undeniably true in terms of the framework that has been put in place. But many UK practitioners now face the extreme challenge of at some point trying to flick a switch and go overnight from zero BIM to Level 2 BIM which is totally impractical. What’s more, Level 2 is not yet in place and they are already talking about Level 3. Experience in Australia would suggest that a more transitional approach to the BIM journey is required to enable teams to develop their understanding and usage of BIM in a more measured way. Again, it
comes down to the people, not the theory. The Australian chapter of buildingSMART www.buildingsmart.org.au continues to make valiant and worthwhile efforts under their National BIM Initiative to document standards and protocols and deliver educational resources. The Natspec National BIM Guide www.bim. natspec.org also seeks to establish a national framework for consistency in BIM execution. What Australia is actually missing is any kind of imperative for BIM adoption – a response to the “what’s in it for me” question at a national level. A document which appears to have risen without trace is “A Framework for the Adoption of Project Team Integration & BIM” jointly published by the ACIF www. acif.com.au and APCC www.apcc.gov.au in December 2014 and touted as “the first time Industry and Government have come together to develop a cohesive national approach to the effective adoption of PTI and BIM”. The document recognises the latent BIM capability of the industry and the need for affirmative action by the government to consolidate the position and start to make up the lost ground. In Asia, things are different again. There is a high level of interest in BIM as a potential enabler for continued rapid growth in construction and infrastructure, and certain key organisations and client groups are very advanced in BIM knowledge. Singapore’s Building and Construction Authority www.bca.gov.sg identified BIM as an enabler for its stated goal of championing an excellent built environment. It has published standards, provides training and initiated the BIM Fund to provide grants to firms undertaking BIM adoption. The “carrot” approach is laudable but BIM still seems to struggle to gain traction at grass roots
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level. In Hong Kong there is no industry wide mandate, but the Hong Kong Housing Authority www.housingauthority. gov.hk has long researched the potential of BIM to improve productivity on its capital works program and set its own milestone to implement BIM on all projects by 2015. It has published comprehensive standards and in company with the MTR Corporation stands as an exemplar to the industry. In Malaysia, the Construction Industry Development Board has established a BIM Portal www.bimcenter. com.my to promote BIM and provide resources. However, in all these locations at project level 2D working practices remain very well entrenched across the industry. Again the “what’s in it for me” question leads to lack of engagement. For Quantity Surveyors, this might be partly explained by the fact that BoQ preparation is still a major part of the QS workload in Asia. Consequently, there is a somewhat misguided expectation that the value proposition for 5D BIM will lie in automated SMM-compliant quantities at documentation stage. When it becomes apparent that this is not the case, interest wanes and the true value of BIM as a means to optimise design at schematic stage fails to gain traction. So what can we learn from all this? Well, the reality of BIM implementation is that there is work involved, regardless of where you are in the world and what level of BIM maturity your local industry happens to be at. Even after you invest in education, training, software and hardware, the first model you receive may not be up to the required standard. You may have to educate the designer as well. Is it worth it? Yes of course, because the benefits of BIM are self-evident and well documented. The fact that its delivery at current levels of
implementation sometimes falls short does not alter this. In order to fully exploit BIM, the implementation processes still need to be improved and the workflows still need to be established. This is where the Australian experience has been so valuable because there has been less concern about trying to define what is a BIM project as opposed to a non-BIM project. If a 3D authoring application has been used, the approach has been to adapt workflows to make use of whatever model data can be exploited, whilst still using the fall-back of working in 2D to meet the deliverables. As the team develops their working protocols and understanding of BIM, the usage of BIM data can be ramped up. This is where the combined 2D/3D functionality of CostX has been central in facilitating the transitional approach to BIM. A hybrid 2D/3D approach is needed because the dimensional properties of a 3D data model are not complete and they do not comply with any recognised measurement standard. However, the QS can certainly use the dimensions as the basis of quantities. All native BIM files contain comprehensive dimensional data, but generally Quantity Surveyors are not equipped to handle native BIM files. Instead, the commonly accepted medium of file interoperability is IFC. Governments like it because it is an open standard and not proprietary to any particular software house and buildingSMART promote it as the cornerstone of Open BIM. It would therefore be reasonable to expect the data in an IFC to be logically presented, understandable, and to contain the dimensional properties that can be used to formulate quantities. Unfortunately, IFC implementation by the various software
houses varies in quality so often this is not the case. To understand why, it is important to have an appreciation of IFC. IFC is an excellent transfer mechanism but the emphasis needs to be on the data, not the file format. For an example of how IFC data can be leveraged and workflows adapted to suit the data available, we can look at the 2014 AIQS publication “Detailed Building Measurement – Volume 1� which describes a methodology for quantification of a 3D model. The native model file and an IFC 2x3 are available for download via the AIQS website at Careers and Education / Detailed Building Measurement Resources. The file provided is a standard export and consequently contains no dimensional data.
workflow means better decision making, leading to improved construction and whole-of-life outcomes. Notwithstanding the various challenges that they may face, countries that are mandating or actively promoting BIM at government or whole-of-industry level will reap the associated productivity benefits and will also become more competitive internationally. Australia needs to consolidate and capitalise on our underlying BIM capability to maintain our position on the world stage.
If the native file is opened in its host application, the IFC can be re-exported but this time the Base Quantities or Model Quantities (or both) options can be enabled. The quantities are then available in the IFC and can either be used just to review or bulk-check the measured quantities, or for fully automated quantity extraction rather than manual input. This provides the QS with a choice to adopt whatever combination of 2D/3D works best and make use of the model data in the way deemed most appropriate. When working with BIM, you have to know where to look for the data you need, and what to do with it when you find it. The role of the QS moves from a measurement task to one of validating the data, filling the gaps and above all applying professional judgement. International standards may vary but with a bit of knowledge and a little effort, Quantity Surveyors can easily leverage BIM to achieve huge gains in productivity. Better cost advice provided sooner as part of a collaborative team
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INSIGHT
What Australia can learn from Dubai By Professor Alan Patching, Bond University LEARNING FROM OUR COLLEAGUES ELSEWHERE Our colleagues at the various professional institutions relating to project management have long professed that the last (and alltoo-often under-valued) phase of any project is a proper closeout, including a thorough lessons learned analysis. Eight students from Bond University recently worked with the AIQS Dubai chapter, to take this concept of ‘lessons
learned analysis’ to an entirely new dimension. An industry wide, rather than project-specific, lessons learned exercise. The AIQS conducted a CPD evening during which we worked in a highly energized and interactive environment to identify important lessons learned for the benefit of not only Dubai-based industry professionals, but also of those from other countries around the world. In a sense the exercise constituted an
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outstanding expression of Corporate Social Responsibility. The evening’s objective was to add value for future development in both Dubai and other countries by identifying and publishing: •
The most important lessons Dubai’s development could teach the rest of the world, and
•
The most important lessons Dubai could take from the rest of the world to enhance its future projects
The exercise was facilitated by this author and conducted using a Nominal Group Technique in which members were divided into teams, and then worked silently to identify individual lessons and problems. The group members then worked interactively to remove duplication of ideas and to priorities the remaining ideas. Finally, each group nominated their top few ideas in each category of analysis and, following further removal of duplication, a final list was prepared within each category. Let’s take a look at what evolved from the evening.
WHAT DUBAI COULD TEACH THE REST OF THE WORLD While it was recognised that many projects suffered from overruns of budget and schedule, particularly before the global economic crisis, the strong body of opinion was that Dubai really had a lot to teach the rest of the world when it comes to expansion and development. Key among the positive lessons identified were the following: The importance of strategic development leadership Despite some issues that were relatively quickly resolved, such as development getting well ahead of infrastructure, especially in regard to the number of bridges, Dubai stands as an example of the benefit of a development plan driven by Vision and Strategy. The ability to embrace a diversity of workforce characteristics Dubai represents a strong platform for an international and multi-cultural workforce to work collaboratively in a peaceful environment. There are plenty of opportunities for off-shore corporations to work from structured economic zones which encourage investment in Dubai in terms of financial , human and other resources. Dubai has also developed as an ideal and central base for such investors to do business throughout the Middle East Region
The imperative of good projects governance Dubai has raised to the challenge of early projects problems and a blistering pace of development to become recognised as a regional leader in project management and projects governance. Dubai sees effective project management and strong base of very well qualified and experienced projects professionals to be a key reason for its expansion success. The critical nature of expeditious infrastructure development There was definitely a time when Dubai suffered from infrastructure lagging significantly behind development, with traffic issues being a key indicator of the extent of the collective problems. However, while Dubai still experiences some of the traffic and other challenges faced by all large and growing cities, it has done an exemplary job of identifying the root cause of infrastructure issues and acting quickly and efficiently to alleviate those problems. The common sense of world class projects benchmarking Dubai has long maintained consistency in studying the best projects in the world as a basis for deciding many of its own projects. The ‘Metro’ is a salient example. During construction it was largely anticipated to be a white elephant for all but the working class.
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User numbers of some are three times the expectation, and massive development in areas adjacent to the main ‘red’ line in particular, have proven the Metro to be another triumph of research and benchmarked based strategic decision making over skepticism and negative thinking. Dubai’s government supports development with a non-stop and can-do attitude and a relatively rapid approvals process When the Ruler first announced the development of Dubai Internet City late in the last century, many scoffed. After all, it was in the desert some 25 km from the then centre of the city. Now, of course it stands virtually in the centre of Dubai, fully occupied by some of the world’s biggest names internet-related technoloqy, yet another testament to the emirate’s visionary leadership. That blend of vision and ‘can-do’ government attitude has become one of the hallmarks of the city’s development. For example, when municipal approvals of the types of development that had not been seen before began to slow things down, separate development approval authorities were established in the quickly growing free zones. An expectation for modern, experimental architecture that would be produced at a rate to match the development rate of Dubai. When Dubai wanted the best in the world, it went to the best in the world to get what it wanted. Buildings by many of the preeminent names in world architecture form the city’s skyline, and the quality of design and construction has markedly improved as the city’s world benchmarking endeavours got into full stride. Other emirates have now followed this principle that, to have the best development, one needs to employ the best consultants and contractors in all aspects of the project. Access to cheap and productive labour While many in the west might see this as
a negative aspect of the Dubai story, the people working in the environment were strongly in favour of it being included in this list of lessons to the rest of the world. As one experienced QS mentioned after our CPD session, ‘the west thinks only of these labourers being paid a fraction of what professionals in Dubai get paid, but there is another side to the story. The money they send to their home countries, where they get significant exchange rate benefits, makes many of them quite well off compared with some of their compatriots. Here is not the place to enter debate on the topic; sufficient to note there appears to be more than one side to the story.
WHAT DUBAI COULD LEARN FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD Allow sufficient project planning time Despite huge and positive changes since the GFC, many developers still try to push projects to tender and construction with insufficient contract planning and project planning time, resulting in a continuation, in some spheres of development, of the unnecessary cost and time overruns borne of the ready, fire aim, approach of the past. Generally speaking, many projects would benefit from better scope definition, feasibility studies and planning. Don’t be satisfied with a cost index that lacks depth and standardisation This point is self-explanatory but was one that many in the workshop felt was a major concern of the development industry in Dubai, and the regions generally. Promote cross contract partnering and collaboration Many contractors operating in the region maintain ‘old school’ attitudes to contract administration with ‘claims engineering’ an issue. These contractors could learn from a more modern relationship-based approach to contracting with partnering principles instituted and respected.
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There should be better protection of investors and all developers should have to disclose funding arrangements at the commencement of projects Local members of the CPD meeting agreed protection of investors is improving and is not an issue when dealing with the more sophisticated developers. However, they were of the opinion that there is more to be done to reach world benchmark standards in this area. In addition, they considered it should be a formal requirement that developers confirm funding status under threat of punitive action of consultants or contractors are misled in that regard.
There should be a continuous program for labour force management This point is self-explanatory. The group regarded that this has begun but needs to be continued. A wider range of contract delivery systems should be considered and Alternative Dispute Resolution processes should be adopted Dubai has traditionally used traditional approaches and lump sum tendering for the majority of its construction projects. Although there is now some movement towards various other forms of contract delivery, there is much room for education about and adoption of other delivery systems to suit different styles of project undertaken at different times during the economic cycle and for different clientcontractor relationships (and even funding arrangements).
In addition, the adoption of facilitation and mediation approaches to dispute resolution was seen as something long overdue.
CONCLUSION While this analysis was undertaken for Dubai in particular, many involved with the exercise were of the opinion it probably applies far more broadly throughout the Middle East region. It can be easy to sit back and focus on the negatives of another projects environment, but far more beneficial to learn from the lessons others have learned. I trust this list of items identified by the dedicated team of QS professionals in Dubai and the students from Bond University is useful to all construction industry professionals as a filter through which their own operations can be reviewed, analysed and improved.
PEOPLE
View Point Quantity Surveying from the view of a Project Manager Yvonne Butler (CEO, AIPM)
It is no secret that Quantity Surveyors often work with Project Managers on construction projects. So what do Project Managers think of the Quantity Surveying profession and how do they view the professionalism of AIQS Members?
Yvonne Butler, the CEO of the Australian Institute of Project Management (AIPM) was recently interviewed and offered her viewpoint.
the planning stages through to the implementation and closure. Quantity Surveyors are valued consultants and an important part of the team.
Q: Have you heard of The Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors and what are your previous dealings with Members of AIQS?
The two disciplines [Project Management and Quantity Surveying] share many things in common; we have a high-level of professionalism, an ongoing commitment to deliver successful outcomes within budget constraints and can add significant value to projects through our professional code of ethics. Members of both Institutes offer opportunities for continuing professional development in order to improve professionalism, to upskill project teams and develop industryleading standards.
A: I have heard of AIQS and both professions have worked closely together for a long time. Several professional independent project management organisations that I know of currently work closely with Quantity Surveyors, in all aspects of the project; from
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Q: What has been the success for the rise of the project management profession and how does the role of a Quantity Surveyor fit into these success?
A: Project Managers take a holistic approach when tasked to manage all areas of a project and often have specialised skills and experience in certain industries. This could include information technology or the construction industry for example. Project Managers not only offer the ability to manage projects, but when combined with knowledge of a particular industry or sector, the value add can be substantial.
But due to the vast array of expectations of Project Managers, highly specialised skills are often sought in certain areas such as costing the quantities required for a large and complex construction project. This is where a Project Manager may turn to a Quantity Surveyor. Quantity Surveyors are viewed as valued consultants during the life of a project, can help minimise risks and essentially add value to project outcomes.
Q: Why may a Quantity Surveyor NOT be engaged during a construction project and what could Quantity Surveyors do to ensure they are engaged up-front?
A: Budgetary constraints often play a large role during projects. Project Managers must be vigilant, adhere to project budgets and operate within a
specific level of acceptable variance. The cost of engaging a Quantity Surveyor may not in certain circumstances be within budget, and therefore no matter what benefits or efficiencies a Quantity Surveyor could offer, the project cost may not allow for this.
When project planning occurs, projected project costs will be developed. Once this has been set, it may be hard for a Project Manager to insist on engaging a Quantity Surveyor. If a Quantity Surveyor is involved during the planning stages of a project and the benefits can be quantified, this could result in a Quantity Surveyor being engaged throughout the life of the project.
Q: What do you believe are the most important factors facing Project Managers, Members of professional Associations such as AIPM and AIQS and the industry as a whole moving into the near future?
A: In the long term, government mandates could pose significant opportunities or threats moving into the future. Government policy can often drive outcomes, whether it be to the positive of one profession, or the detriment of another. The ability of an industry, professional body or individual to innovate, diversify and refresh skills, can offer new opportunities that may not have existed within the current environment.
A professional Association like AIPM, would like to ensure that project managers remain strong into the future. If policy decisions could negatively impact productivity project management
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as a profession, industry peak bodies such as AIPM need to be there advising government, providing representation and advocacy for their profession and the likely negative impact that a change in policy may have.
Q: Is there anything else you would like to add that you believe of high importance, now and moving into the future?
A: Being a member of an Association is of critical importance. Associations can help support employees, provide professional development opportunities and further education. Being a member is tax deductable and offers many benefits. The support an individual can gain from being part of an Association can help guide your career path and provide you with many opportunities.
Certification and using post-nominals can exhibit to industry your level of skills and experience within the current environment and can help you ‘stand out from the crowd’. Associations can help give members support, offer a voice within the community and act on their behalf. I would encourage all professionals to be part of an Association.
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Tomorrow’s Built Environment driven by Black Swans Treshani Perera
PhD Student - RMIT, AUS Unpredictable events are labelled as a concrete and precise category of knowledge named ‘unknown’, ‘improbable’ or ‘uncertain’, but according to Taleb (2008), it is simply the lack of knowledge. For instance, before the discovery of Australia, the rest of the world was convinced that all swans were white. The sighting of the first Black Swan illustrates the fragility of knowledge. Taleb (2008) coined the term ‘Black Swan’ to
describe these random events which have the following three key characteristics: rarity, extreme impact and retrospective predictability. The framework of Black Swan events, distinguished events into known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns based on the availability of model/data dichotomy and deconstructed into its constituent parts as tabulated in the following table.
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Known Knowns
Known Unknowns
Unknown Unknowns
Model and data
Model but no data
No model, no data (No idea)
e.g. Y2000 computer bug
e.g. earthquakes
e.g. asteroid attack
• • •
• •
• • •
Certainty; Impact easily estimated; After the fact explanation shifts the focus to errors in judgment or some other human form of causation.
•
Predictable; Impact can easily cascade; After the fact, shifts focus to errors in judgment or some other human form of causation.
Unpredictable; Massive impact; After the fact, explained to appear less random and more predictable.
Source: Sikich (2010); Taleb (2008)
Earlier, these rare and extreme consequences associated with Black Swan events are included in the definition of disaster. These can be grouped into three types: natural, man-made and hybrid disasters. These have been increasingly dominating the environment. According to the sigma terminology, a catastrophe is identified in the sigma database when insured
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losses, total economic losses or the number of casualties exceed a certain threshold. Based on the sigma criteria, figure shows the level of recorded natural catastrophes and manmade disasters during 1970-2015 which shows an upward trend, where the number of recorded events has increased from 94 to 336 in the past 40 years.
The existing risk management literature focusses almost exclusively on known knowns. However, a large fraction of realworld risk management challenges fall in the domain of known unknowns and unknown unknowns. The increasing complexity of the world made up of a tangled web of relationships and other interdependent factors, which eliminate predictability and cause outsized events by developing cascades with the chains of reactions. Thus, Black Swan logic makes what is unknown is far more relevant than what is known. In the built environmental context, the performance of any property cannot be judged without assessing the risks. The pricing of property is based on conventional property valuation techniques as risks are commonly pooled to provide a measurement of value. Higgins (2015) in his research categorised the impact of Black Swans risks related to place risks (e.g. Earthquakes, hurricanes) can damage the physical buildings and the space risk (e.g. Global financial crisis, cyber-attacks) associated with the economic loss for the space occupier that may spread across several unrelated locations. Therefore, property decision should incorporate sufficient understanding of possible occurrence of known-unknown events to make a viable corporate property decision. Taleb (2008) coined that instead of trying to anticipate lowprobability, high-impact events, the most appropriate response is to reduce the vulnerability to them. Risk management should be about lessening the impact of unknowable instead of developing sophisticated techniques that perpetuate illusions of social and economic environment. For instance, structures can be designed to withstand strong earthquakes in an earthquake prone area (e.g. Structural design of the Taipei 101 tower). As another example, there was no quantifiable information prior to the terrorist attack to the World Trade Centre on September 11, 2011. Consequently, the level of awareness has been increased and such events are included in the known unknown category. As a provision, new building design features can limit the impact of airborne terrorism. Taleb (2012) coined this new disease as ‘neomania’ that makes us build Black Swan-vulnerable systems. As the built environment progressing towards neomania, the associated roles in the field must go on par with this antifragile tinkering. For instance, it is the time to contemplate beyond the conventional quantity surveying practice of life cycle cost measurement to give much depth to the uncertainties by means of risk-adjusted measurement in order to deliver reliable outputs.
Treshani Perera worked as a Quantity Surveyor in Sri Lanka for the Central Engineering Consultancy Bureau before entering academia as a quantity surveying lecturer at the University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka. Currently, she is undertaking her PhD in Built Environment at RMIT University, Australia on Forecasting the Performance of Commercial Property Market: Beyond the Primary Reliance on Econometric Models.
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SCHOLARSHIP WINNERS
Congratulations to the AIQS Year 12 Scholarship winners Each year the Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors awards a number of scholarships each year for Year 12 students who qualify for entry into a Quantity Surveying, Construction Economics, Construction Management (Economics) or other appropriate course at an AIQS accredited university in Australia.
Applicants are assessed on their Year 11 English and Maths results as well as an essay submission on the topic “Describe the role and services of the Quantity Surveyor (Project Cost Manager) and comment on the future of the Quantity Surveying profession.”
The scholarship is to the total value of AU$3,000. This includes: • AU$2,000 cash • AIQS published text books and manuals to the value of AU$1,000. • AIQS student membership This year three scholarships were awarded to:
Miranda Plumb (Somerville House High School, Brisbane) accepted into Bachelor of Urban Development (Construction Management) at Queensland University of Technology
Jeremy Walker (Oakhill College, Sydney) accepted into Bachelor of Construction Management and Property at University of New South Wales
Congratulations to Miranda, Rui and Jeremy, we wish you all the best as you embark on your university degrees. Applications for the 2017 Scholarships close on Tuesday 26 April 2016, please visit www.aiqs.com.au for more information.
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Rui Yang (Mandurah Baptist College, Perth) accepted into Bachelor of Construction Management and Property at University of New South Wales
AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF QUANTITY SURVEYORS
SCHOLARSHIPS AVAILABLE FOR 2016 Each scholarship awarded is valued at AU$3,000 and includes: AU$2,000 AIQS published text books and manuals to the value at AU$1,000 and AIQS Student Membership.
The entry requirements are as follows:
Are you currently completing Year 12 and looking to study Quantity Surveying, Construction Economics, Construction Management (Economics) at university? The Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors (AIQS) offers a number of scholarships for Year 12 high school students who qualify for entry into a Quantity Surveying, Construction Economics, Construction Management (Economics) or other appropriate course at an AIQS accredited university in Australia.
ENTRY REQUIREMENTS
Complete the Scholarship Application Form Include a certified copy of your Year 11 academic record, results and report and Submit your 500 word essay.
Submit your 500 word essay on the following topic:
“Describe the role and services of the Quantity Surveyor (Project Cost Estimator) and comment on the future of the Quantity Surveying profession” Entries close Tuesday 26 April 2016.
Contact Lani Kirby Events & Education Manager Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors Suite 303, Level 3, 70 Pitt Street, Sydney NSW 2000 +61 2 8234 4002 education@aiqs.com.au
FURTHER INFORMATION For further information about this Scholarship opportunity (including criteria and entry forms) visit the AIQS website on www.aiqs.com.au On the AIQS website, go to Careers & Education / Scholarships
Measurement of Building Works While the measurement of formal bills of quantities (BQs) may be less common than it was, the need to measure building work for estimating and other purposes remains. Building measurement is core content in all construction/quantity surveying courses, yet there are few Australian resources available for students apart from a handful of books, notes and examples produced by individual lecturers. Books from the UK and US are of little practical use due to differences in the way building work is done and measured and, of course, there is the problem of the antiquated units of measurement that persist in the US. The AIQS publication Detailed Building Measurement is intended to provide a useful additional resource for students and early career quantity surveyors that complements the books currently in use such as Paul Marsden’s Basic Building Measurement. This book is, however,
more of a reference book for self-study than a textbook for use in lectures. It does not contain measurement exercises, for example, but it does provide a very detailed measure of a complete building. Anyone wishing to understand how building work is measured can follow the measurement process step by step. A set of supporting resources can be freely downloaded from the AIQS website; they include a virtual 3D model of the building, a complete BQ and printable drawings. The book contains a detailed specification for each trade and a breakdown of each measured item from the BQ with a written commentary explaining various aspects of the measurement process. The BQ has been measured in accordance with the fifth edition of the Australian Standard Method of Measurement of Building Works (ASMM) and the BQ produced using Buildsoft’s Global Estimating software. The text is supported by more
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than 50 detailed diagrams and drawings showing details of construction and of the measurement process.
work and the rules regarding minimum sizes for deductions in calculations are explained in some detail.
The project is a small two storey residential block containing two apartments. It comprises of cavity brick walls sitting on strip footings, with ground and upper floor slabs and a timber truss and concrete tile roof. The measure includes detailed BQs for all the necessary trades including hydraulics and electrical as well as external works. Although such detailed measurement may not be so much these days, the authors believe that students who can successfully grapple with this sort of detailed measurement will be much better equipped to measure all sorts of work for whatever purpose quantities are required: cost planning, early estimates, tendering or contract administration.
While the measurement has been done in a quite detailed manner, a pragmatic approach has been adopted and, where appropriate, some shortcuts have been made that reflect the sort of practical approach that would be sensibly taken by a professional measurer. These are explained, often with diagrams to show that the effect on final quantities is insignificant. The aim is to develop students’ awareness of the importance of accurate measurement but at the same time to demonstrate that there is a practical limit to the level of accuracy required.
The intent is that students can view the 3D model which will assist them in interpreting the 2D drawings. They can then analyse any BQ item by finding the matching table of dimensions in the relevant trade section in the book and then see how the measurer has extracted the necessary dimensions from the drawings and married them to ASMM compliant BQ descriptions. Detailed layouts for electrical and hydraulics will help students understand the sort of assumptions that measurers have to make as they work out dimensions for such things as pipe and cable runs which are generally shown on engineers’ drawings, that are only diagrammatic and are often not to scale. The individual trade sections are preceded by two chapters that deal with a range of general concepts. Terms such as ‘girth’ and ‘splay cutting’ are explained with supporting illustrations and some of the key clauses in Section 1 of the ASSM are discussed; clauses such as those related to the measurement of circular
There is some emphasis on the importance of measurement in the context of pricing work. Students who take the time to work through the book should end up with not only a better understanding of the process of measurement, but also a deeper knowledge of how construction pricing is related to how we measure. The book is not comprehensive in that the project that was measured does not include some key trade sections: there is virtually no structural steel, for example, and no columns or structural beams other than a few in Woodwork. As a result, a second similar book is planned; it will focus on a small commercial/industrial building with some steel framing, metal roofing, commercial glass, suspended ceilings and pier and beam footings. The authors hope that the first book and any that follow will prove to be valuable for students and teachers alike. Many students do find building measurement challenging; this resource aims to make the mysterious processes of building measurement a little accessible.
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Order your copy from AIQS Bookshop www.aiqs.com.au Detailed Building Measurement - Volume 2 AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF QUANTITY SURVEYORS
DETAILED BUILDING MEASUREMENT VOLUME 2
please visit
Latest Publications DETAILED BUILDING MEASUREMENT VOLUME 2
RICK BEST, PETER SMITH AND JUDY DOHERTY
AUSTRALIAN STANDARD METHOD OF MEASUREMENT OF BUILDING WORKS SIXTH EDITION
AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF QUANTITY SURVEYORS
This learning resource has been prepared to assist students and practitioners in improving their understanding of the ASMM and of the detailed measurement involved in BoQ preparation. Volume 2 contains specifications and measurement for the remaining trades required for the construction of a small building. Standard Price: AU$70 Member Price: AU$55 Note: Discounts available when purchasing Volumes 1 & 2.
Australian Standard Method of Measurement of Building Works 6th Edition The sixth edition of the Australian Standard Method of Measurement of Building Works is now available. Published by the Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors and Master Builders Association, ASMM6 provides a uniform basis for the measurement of building works.
AUSTRALIAN STANDARD METHOD OF MEASUREMENT OF BUILDING WORKS SIXTH EDITION
The methods of measurement laid down herein shall be applicable to the preparation of Bills of Quantities before the works are commenced equally with the measurement of finished works and variations. Standard Price: AU$95 Member Price: AU$80
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Major changes from the ASMM 5th edition include: •
Incorporation of a new trade section covering façades, which now includes curtain wall (moved from trade section on windows)
• Finishes - There are now seperate sections dealing with: • Tiling, slab & paving • Carpet & resilient finishes • Applied finishes, render and textured finishes • Partitions section now includes measurement of: • Composite partitions • Acoustic partitions • Fire partitions •
Groundworks now addresses backfilling with previously excavated materials and disposal of excess previously excavated materials, and backfilling to trenches
•
New trade section covering “reinforcement”, “prestressing”, “pre-cast concrete”, “tanking and waterproofing”, and “formwork”, have been separated out from the previous single trade for concrete
•
External elements now includes timber fencing, road/carpark line marking, and external concrete slabs <150mm thick
•
Trade section on furniture replaced with furniture, fittings, and equipment, with seperate section for joinery
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EVENTS & SOCIAL
BREAKFAST SEMINAR WITH CHRIS CATON
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| MARKET OUTLOOK 01 FEBRUARY, SYDNEY
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Offering key insights into the international forces affecting the Australian economy, including whats happening in the USA, Europe and China THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 39
EVENTS & SOCIAL
CONDUIT TO YOUR FUTURE ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| QUEENSLAND, YQS 17 MARCH, BRISBANE
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Three Quantity Surveyors share their experiences and advice with Queensland YQS
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2016 INFINITE VALUE AWARDS PARTNERSHIPS IN CONSTRUCTION
THURSDAY 27 OCTOBER FOUR POINTS BY SHERATON DARLING HARBOUR, SYDNEY
Over the past four years the Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors and industry partners have successfully recognised the infinitely valuable contributions of our peers and their construction projects through the annual Infinite Value Awards. This year we aim to raise the bar by highlighting how a collaborative approach can drive a successful project, build industry confidence and develop industry professionals â&#x20AC;&#x201C; this is demonstrated by the theme Partnerships in Construction. The Gala Dinner The 2016 Infinite Value Awards Gala Dinner, to be held on Thursday 27 October represents the perfect opportunity to celebrate project successes and professional achievements with clients, stakeholders and project team members. The Awards In 2016, the award categories have been revamped to highlight industry partnerships. The focus of the awards will be on recognising QS firms and individuals, but also membersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; clients, project managers, contractors as well as developers, financiers, all levels of government, academics. Additionally, project-based winners will be awarded two trophies: the principal award to the project client and the secondary award to the nominating firm.
Important Dates Award Nominations Open Award Nominations Close Award Finalists Announced Early Bird Gala Dinner Bookings Close Gala Dinner Bookings Close
May 2016 Friday 15 July 2016 By Thursday 1 September 2016 Thursday 1 September 2016 Wednesday 26 October 2016
(unless sold out prior)
www.infinitevalueawards.com
2016 Infinite Value Award Categories - Nominations open in May Future Leader Award is designed to recognise, encourage and celebrate the up and coming â&#x20AC;&#x153;movers and shakersâ&#x20AC;? within the construction industry.
Lifetime Contribution Award honours those who have made an outstanding contribution to the Quantity Surveying industry and have dedicated a significant amount of time to champion the profession both inside and outside of the work environment. Quantity Surveying Advocacy Award is designed to thank those in the industry that actively engage with and endorse the role of the QS It provides an opportunity for QS firms to put forward their best clients/advocators in gratitude for their continued support. Research and Teaching Award celebrates those who have dedicated their careers to educating and increasing the knowledge and skill base of the profession. It aims to recognise the contribution they have made to the industry through research and education. Women in Construction Award celebrates the women who are dominating the industry and making significant impact in a stereotypically male space. It honours the achievements of key female players who campaign for the role of women in the construction industry. Indigenous Award celebrates the achievements of an Indigenous project partner who displayed exemplary professionalism and made a valuable contribution to a specific project completed within the last two years. Sub-contractor Award celebrates the achievements of a sub-contractor who delivered best value/cost saving innovations to a specific project completed within the last two years.
Leasing Agent Award aims to reward and recognise an individual or team who were instrumental in raising finance for a specific project by reaching and/or exceeding leasing targets. The project must have been completed within the past 2 years. Architectural Excellence Award celebrates excellence in the field of Architecture. This is a project-based award is aimed at projects that are pioneers in terms of design as well as function, and are influencing the very face of the Australian built environment. Engineering Excellence Award celebrates excellence in the field of Engineering and represents the very best in the industry. The project must demonstrate the positive impact they have had on the community and the resulting social benefits of the project as a whole. Government Project Award recognises the value and excellence of a local, state or federal government department or authority in its association with the property, infrastructure and construction industries. Sustainable / Green Project Award aims to reward and recognise a project/building that has made significant impact in the environmental space and the principals of sustainability have been at the forefront of the design and execution of the project. The project must also have continued these fundamentals through the post-handover fit-out.
BCI
BUILDING COST INDEX THE BUILDING COST INDEX IS PUBLISHED IN THE PRINT VERSION OF THE BUILDING ECONOMIST. IT CONTAINS DATA THAT CAN BE USED AS A PREDICTOR FOR THE ESTIMATED TIMES FOR DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION AND INCLUDES A SUMMARY OF THE PAST, PRESENT AND ESTIMATED FUTURE CONSTRUCTION COSTS. 44 - MARCH 2016 - THE BUILDING ECONOMIST
BUILDING COST IMARCHNDEX2016 THE BUILDING ECONOMIST - MARCH 2016 - 45