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g at e way › wa r n i n g : g r a p h i c
for whom the bellwether tolls Tracking the state’s presidential politics
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE
1992
YEAR
George Bush
Bill Clinton
Until the 2008 presidential election, Missouri was seen
as a bellwether: It had consistently voted for the winner in all but one race since 1904. But the state remained red for Barack Obama’s two terms, throwing its popular vote to the national losers and defying the adage “As Missouri goes, so goes the nation.” For a look at how the state’s politics have changed, we turned to Kenneth Warren, professor of political science at Saint Louis University, who co-wrote a chapter titled “The One That Got Away: Missouri’s Break From Ultimate Swing State Status” in the 2015 book Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter. —sarah c. truckey
RESULTS
Clinton (44%) defeated Bush (34%) and Ross Perot (22%) in Missouri.
Clinton attracted both Democrats and Republicans, especially those whose counties bordered Arkansas. He overwhelmingly won in the Bootheel, as well as the northern half of the state. (In the 1956 presidential election, former Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson won Missouri in part because he’d governed a border state.)
1996
In recent times, no other Democrat has come close to doing as well in Missouri as Clinton did in 1996. He again dominated rural counties, winning by double digits over Dole. Bill Clinton
Bob Dole
2000 Al Gore
George W. Bush
Clinton (48%) defeated Dole (41%) and Perot (10%) in Missouri.
Bush (50%) defeated Gore (47%) in Missouri.
Many of the state’s Republicans disliked Gore’s stances on the environment and gun control, as well as his association F u n Fa with the recently impeached Clinton. St. Louis C c t o accounts unty for 20 percent o f th state’s vo e te.
2004
Kerry’s urban, leftist opinions failed to resonate with many conservative Missourians. The number of Republican votes increased by 64 percent since 1996; Democratic votes rose by 33 percent. George W. Bush
2008
John Kerry
John McCain
Bush (53%) defeated John Kerry (46%) in Missouri.
McCain (49%) defeated Obama (49%) in Missouri.
2012
Barack Obama
Barack Obama
22
ANALYSIS
stlmag.com November 2016
Mitt Romney
Romney (54%) defeated Obama (44%) in Missouri.
Obama’s race and liberal politics attracted many of the state’s Democrats and revolted some Republicans, who were more interested in McCain’s military background and POW status. But nationally, McCain lost by a 7 percent margin, effectively eliminating Missouri’s bellwether status.
Romney lost nationally by 4 percent, yet won Missouri by nearly 10 percent. The only Missouri counties that Obama won were along Interstate 70, where dense populations of Democrats reside. Romney’s success could be attributed to Obama’s minimal campaigning in the state, as well as the right campaigning to evangelicals.
Illustration by Todd Detwiler