Luxury Trends Year-End 2019 Tahoe/Truckee Market Report
DicksonLuxury.com
COVER PROPERTY FEATURED:
GREETINGS IN THE NEW YEAR AND WELCOME TO OUR ANNUAL LUXURY HOME MARKET REPORT FOR 2019
14643 TYROL ROAD TAHOE DONNER $1,440,000 MLS# 20192845
Dickson Realty, Truckee, is pleased to present the 2019 Annual Luxury Home Market Report, highlighting the news and trends of luxury home sales in the region. While it is hard to believe another year has passed so quickly, what better time than the Year 2020 to focus on creating a 20/20 vision plan for success this year. We hope one goal is home ownership in Truckee/Tahoe and that Dickson Realty might be part of that achievement. In 2019, the number of homes that sold for $1,000,000 and above numbered 332, a decrease of 4% compared to 347 sold in 2018. The Truckee market area was the strongest representing 218 of the transactions; while West Shore Lake Tahoe, California had the highest single sale at $37,000,000. The overall market achieved a total of $749,791,033 in sales. Representing 241 sales, the highest volume was in the price ranges of $1,000,000 to $2,000,000. Median prices and days on market were virtually the same versus 2018, and inventory for luxury properties remains very low with only 180 active listings at the time of this report. The golf course communities of Martis Camp, Gray’s Crossing and Lahontan, when combined, achieved 8% increases on average pricing and 20% increases on median pricing. Based on their second white report of 2019, Luxury Portfolio International is tracking increased buyer demand in more affluent and ultra high net worth Buyers for resort second homes. We hope you find the information we have provided useful in planning your next real estate sale or purchase. Our team of Dickson Realty Luxury Homes Specialists is available to provide you with competent expertise in this market area. We will work hard for you to achieve the most positive outcome whether you are buying or selling. Buyers for resort second homes. We hope you find the information we have provided useful in planning your next real estate sale or purchase. Our team of Dickson Realty Luxury Homes Specialists is available to provide you with competent expertise in this market area. We will work hard for you to achieve the most positive outcome —Broker/Manager, Dickson Realty Truckee whether you are buying or selling.
Luxury Home Averages Over $1 Million January - December 2019 compared to January - December 2018
-4%
-8%
-4%
+2%
TOTAL UNITS SOLD
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
AVERAGE PRICE PER SF
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
2019:218 2018: 226
2019: $2,217,234 2018: $2,410,791
2019: $624.00 2018: $650.00
2019: 101 2018: 99
Data Source: Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service (TSMLS) as of January 5, 2020
Luxury Home Sales over $1 Million Truckee NUMBER OF SALES AVERAGE SALES $ HIGHEST SALE $
Alpine Meadows NUMBER OF SALES
218 $2,217,234 $13,600,000
AVERAGE SALES $ HIGHEST SALE $
North Shore, Lake Tahoe, CA NUMBER OF SALES AVERAGE SALES $ HIGHEST SALE $
7%
$1,616,750
AVERAGE SALES $
$3,650,000
AVERAGE SALES $
$5,475,000
HIGHEST SALE $
$3,000,000– $4,999,999
11%
$1,639,041 $3,650,000
42 $3,323,421 $37,000,000
Active Listings Over $1 Million $5,000,000 and higher
$1,000,000– $1,999,999
73%
HIGHEST SALE $
24
West Shore, Lake Tahoe, CA NUMBER OF SALES
Sold Listings Over $1 Million $5,000,000 and higher
NUMBER OF SALES
6
42 $1,852,683
Squaw Valley
9%
$1,000,000– $1,999,999
48%
$3,000,000– $4,999,999
21%
$2,000,000$2,999,999
10%
$2,000,000$2,999,999
22% $1,000,000– 241 Sold Listings $1,999,999 $1,417,414 Average Price
$1,000,000– 87 Active Listings $1,999,999 $1,461,401 Average Price
$2,000,000– 32 Sold Listings $2,999,999 $2,428,093 Average Price
$2,000,000– 39 Active Listings $2,999,999 $2,459,989 Average Price
$3,000,000– 36 Sold Listings $4,999,999 $3,748,056 Average Price
$3,000,000– 38 Active Listings $4,999,999 $3,796,421 Average Price
$5,000,000 23 Sold Listings and higher $8,502,826Average Price
$5,000,000 16 Active Listings and higher $7,654,312 Average Price
95 Average Days On Market
110 Average Days On Market
125 Average Days On Market
171 Average Days On Market
137 Average Days On Market
131 Average Days On Market
200 Average Days On
307 Average Days On Market
Data Source: Tahoe Sierra Multiple Listing Service (TSMLS) as of January 5, 2020
Recent Dickson Sales
SOLD $3,005,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $2,037,500
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,640,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,425,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
Lahontan
Northstar
Gray's Crossing
Donner Lake
SOLD $2,100,000
Donner Lake
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,960,000
Seller & Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,640,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,340,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
Tahoe Donner
Gray's Crossing
Ponderosa Ranchos
Recent Dickson Sales
SOLD $1,300,000
Buyer & Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,110,000
Buyer & Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,085,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,023,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
Tahoe Donner
Tahoe Donner
Tahoe Donner
Tahoe City
SOLD $1,250,000
Buyer Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,110,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,080,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
SOLD $1,020,000
Seller Representation by Dickson Realty
The Meadows
Tahoe Donner
Tahoe Donner
Tahoe Donner
Current Luxury Listings Pending
$1,440,000
14643 Tyrol Road MLS# 20192845
$1,295,000
735 Conifer MLS#20191498
Tahoe Donner
Northstar
$1,300,000
16356 Greenlee MLS# 20190894
$1,198,000
220 Basque MLS#20192400
Russell Valley
Northstar
Pending
$1,189,000
15220 Wolfgang Road MLS# 20192568
$1,099,000
11442 Chalet Road MLS# 20193033
Tahoe Donner
Tahoe Donner
$1,175,000
12330 Snowpeak Way MLS# 20192278
$1,149,000
237 Basque MLS# 20193199
Tahoe Donner
Northstar
Old Greenwood
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,724,462
-13%
$1,983,000
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,688,000
-20.2%
$2,115,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-9%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+83%
FROM LAST YEAR
75
82
DAYS ON MARKET
11 UNITS SOLD
6
Gray’s Crossing
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,542,666
+9.1%
$1,414,066
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,600,000
+18.5%
$1,350,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+20% FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+60% FROM LAST YEAR
85
71
DAYS ON MARKET
24 UNITS SOLD
15
Lahontan
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price AVERAGE $
2019 2018 2018
AVERAGE PRICE
+11.8%
$2,611,625 $2,336,644
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN $
MEDIAN PRICE
+27.2%
$2,792,500 $2,195,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+15%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-26%
FROM LAST YEAR
118
103
DAYS ON MARKET
20
27
UNITS SOLD
Schaffer’s Mill
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price AVERAGE $
2019 2018 2018
AVERAGE PRICE
-10.6%
$1,561,791 $1,746,900
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN $
MEDIAN PRICE
+9.8%
$1,558,250 $1,419,500
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+44% FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+20% FROM LAST YEAR
121
84
DAYS ON MARKET
12 UNITS SOLD
10
Martis Camp
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$5,394,610
+2.7%
$5,254,822
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$5,100,000
+9.1%
$4,675,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-16%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-32% FROM LAST YEAR
151
179
DAYS ON MARKET
32
47
UNITS SOLD
Northstar
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,810,871
-1.6%
$1,840,363
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,652,500
+7.7%
$1,535,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+36%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-15%
FROM LAST YEAR
167
123
DAYS ON MARKET
28
33
UNITS SOLD
Squaw Valley-Alpine Meadows
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,634,583
+2.7%
$1,591,833
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,412,500
-7.8%
$1,532,500
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-53%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
+100% FROM LAST YEAR
134
284
DAYS ON MARKET
30 UNITS SOLD
15
Lake Tahoe – North Shore
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,852,683
-24.1%
$2,440,612
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,450,000
-6.8%
$1,555,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+44% FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-29%
FROM LAST YEAR
125
87
DAYS ON MARKET
42
59
UNITS SOLD
Lake Tahoe – West Shore
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$3,323,421
-26.5%
$4,518,844
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,613,350
-15.1%
$1,900,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
-27%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-7%
FROM LAST YEAR
84
115
DAYS ON MARKET
42
45
UNITS SOLD
Tahoe Donner
January-December 2019 vs. 2018 Average vs. Median Average vs. Median Price
MEDIAN $
AVERAGE $
2019
2018
AVERAGE PRICE
$1,320,298
+7.8%
$1,224,649
FROM LAST YEAR
MEDIAN PRICE
$1,233,334
+5.0%
$1,175,000
FROM LAST YEAR
Average Days on Market vs. Units Sold 2019
2018
DAYS ON MARKET
+11%
FROM LAST YEAR
UNITS SOLD
-8%
FROM LAST YEAR
51
46
DAYS ON MARKET
45
49
UNITS SOLD
I’M LOCAL I’M GLOBAL
®
INDUSTRYLEADING SALES. WORLD-CLASS SERVICE.
MORE U.S. HOME SALES VOLUME $32 BILLION MORE U.S. HOME SALES VOLUME IN 2018 THAN OUR CLOSEST COMPETITOR AMONG THE TOP 500 FIRMS 300
Leading Real Estate Companies of the World® Keller Williams
565 COMPANIES
4,300 OFFICES
130,000 SALES ASSOCIATES
OVER 70 COUNTRIES
250
Non-LeadingRE Independents Berkshire Hathaway Home Services RE/MAX
$222
Sotheby’s International Realty Century 21
200
HomeSmart
$192
ERA
$182
Better Homes & Gardens Realty Executives Exit Realty
150
100
®
Leading Real Estate Companies of the World
1.1 MILLION GLOBAL TRANSACTIONS
Coldwell Banker
$254
$89
$83 $72
50
$30 $14
$14
$12
$7
$.5
0
Volume shown in billions of dollars This bar chart is sourced from REAL Trends Top 500 for 2018, realtrends.com
®
© 2019 Leading Real Estate Companies of the World. All Rights Reserved. C–Sales Volume. 04.19
Equal Housing Opportunity.
As an affiliate of Leading Real Estate Companies of the World,® Dickson Realty is a local and global market leader working on your behalf. LeadingRE’s world-class marketing resources and connections allow us to provide you with a truly exceptional real estate experience.
What is the current state of the resort and second home market? Affluent consumers are in acquisition mode Those who are in the market to purchase a luxury second home are adding to their portfolio and unlikely to sell their existing second home at this time—thus there
are more buyers than sellers. Interestingly too, this means that sellers are also buyers, but buyers are not necessarily sellers.
RESORT/SECOND HOME MARKET— TOTAL GLOBAL AFFLUENT Sell Exclusive
16%
Both Buy and Sell
62%
Buy Exclusive
Both
22%
Buy Exclusive Sell Exclusive
Buyers show more confidence in the market than sellers. More than half of buyers believe that now is a good time to purchase a second home, while relatively few
Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
22% 62% 16%
28% 72% 0%
69% 0% 31%
think it is a good time to sell. As noted previously, these consumers are quite savvy when it comes to home ownership; 76% own two or more properties currently.
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS IT A GOOD TIME TO DO? Buy a Secondary Home | Sell a Secondary Home 80%
70%
70% 60%
54%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
26%
22% 11%
11%
0% Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyers
Luxury Second Home Sellers
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
Fueling the competition We are seeing a rising competitive spirit, as today’s buyers believe that other potential buyers have reached the same conclusion, that it is a good time to purchase, possibly fueling a fear of missing out on the best properties.
More than half of luxury second home buyers believe the market is getting stronger as new money floods the global marketplace.
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS BEST DESCRIBES YOUR POINT OF VIEW ON THE LUXURY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET? Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
22% 23% 22% 33%
55% 25% 15% 5%
49% 33% 13% 6%
It is getting stronger (more buyers) It is getting softer (fewer buyers) It is not changing very much I do not know about this market Some sellers show concerns, as 33% believe the market is getting softer. This may be influenced by media reports about climate change threatening beachside resort communities, limited snowfall at ski resorts or news about golf course closure rates. Beyond that
perception, they show signs of concern in their own financial stability, coupled with the potential to turn a profit in the near term. These may be strong motivating factors to sell.
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
Bottom line: There are more potential buyers now than ever before Global personal wealth has continued to grow at a rapid pace since 2010. Despite a slight contraction between 2014 and 2016 the overall growth rate has been staggering. Looking more recently, in just the past four
years, personal wealth globally has grown by 15% and the number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) has increased by 25%. The potential market for luxury property has never been bigger.
CREDIT SUISSE: GLOBAL WEALTH TREND
$340,000
High-net-worth individuals
45,000,000
$320,000
40,000,000
$300,000 35,000,000
$280,000 $260,000
30,000,000
$240,000 25,000,000
$220,000
20,000,000
$200,000 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total personal wealth in USD billions
USD $1 Million+ Net Worth Individuals | Global Personal Wealth
2018
CREDIT SUISSE: HNWI AND PERSONAL WEALTH LEVELS WORLDWIDE INDIVIDUALS (MILLIONS OF ADULTS)
$1–5 Million (net worth) $5–10 Million (net worth) $10+ Million (net worth) Total HNWI (NW $1 Million+) million adults Personal Wealth Levels (USD billions)
2015
2018
Percent Change
29.8 2.5 1.5 33.8 $275,531
37.1 3.3 1.8 42.2 $317,084
25% 31% 22% 25% 15%
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
While the market bears an ever-growing group of potential buyers, sellers are showing signs of concern that cannot be ignored. Luxury second home sellers appear to have concerns over the economy’s continued expansion; two-thirds predict a recession is coming, though most believe it will last less than one year. Despite similar demographics to buyers, sellers have a distinct mindset toward concern for their assets.
Those at the highest end of the wealth spectrum (over $10 million in assets) represent a unique opportunity. While the mainstream market has concern and behaves with caution, this consumer is becoming more aggressive with investing and feeling extremely confident in the market. Our last paper, Media and the Message: Marketing Real Estate to the Affluent, detailed the media consumption habits of the global high-net-worth household, and some insights can be carried forward for the ultra-high-networth consumer, specifically:
External factors, such as the strength of the global economy and security of retirement assets create significant concern for sellers, their own behavior may be complicating matters. Sellers are 65% more likely than buyers to say they spend beyond their means and are 30% more likely than buyers to be worried they may run out of money someday. Their aggressive positioning in the market (currently own 3.8 homes on average) combined with high luxury living may be too much risk to bear ahead of an expected economic slowdown. Divesting from the property may also free up some much needed cash flow.
This group is more reliant on agents than websites for information (though they do use both). Online videos, articles, and advertising in real estate/design magazines and news media elicit an above average response.
Total Affluent
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
21% 39% 51% 21%
55% 49% 56% 37%
56% 65% 73% 61%
Confident in the strength of the global economy Concerned with the security of retirement assets Agree I worry that at some point I may run out of money Agree I spend beyond my means
DO YOU THINK THAT YOUR COUNTRY IS HEADING INTO A RECESSION? Total Affluent
50% Yes
Average # of months duration
12.6
Luxury Second Home Buyer
Luxury Second Home Seller
43%
63%
Yes
Average # of months duration
10.3
Yes
Average # of months duration
Article and images used with permission from Luxury Portfolio International. For more info, visit www.LuxuryPortfolio.com/blog
9.4
TRUCKEE 530.587.7444 DOWNTOWN RENO 775.324.7000
CAUGHLIN RANCH 775.746.7000
PORTOLA 530.832.1700
DONNER LAKE 530.587.4811
DAMONTE RANCH 775.850.7000
SOMERSETT 775.746.7222
NORTHSTAR 530.562.1140 MONTRÊUX 775.849.9444
SPARKS 775.685.8800
DicksonLuxury.com | luxury@dicksonrealty.com
© 2020 Dickson Realty. All rights reserved. Although the information above is deemed reliable, Dickson Realty does not guarantee its accuracy. If your property is currently listed for sale, this is not intended to be a solicitation.