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Michael Frantantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, sees lending volume hitting new highs in the new year.
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here is no question that housing has so far led the country through the economic doldrums caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, when the final count comes in later this year, new and existing home sales in 2020 are likely to have set a record. “If you asked around, it would probably be difficult to find anyone who has something nice to say about the year 2020 as a whole,” says Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a New Jersey mortgage information service. But that’s “unless you ask people connected with the residential real estate industry.” Whether they are mortgage lenders or brokers, realty agents or sales
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associates, homebuilders or folks with significant connections to or between them (think title agents, real estate attorneys and the like), Gumbinger says these professionals “would likely have very nice things now to say about 2020, at least from a business standpoint -- and that’s even if they were cursing their misfortune only eight or nine months ago.” Now the question is, can the market keep up its blistering pace in 2021? And the answer is – drum roll please – yes, at least for the time being. Bolstered by a new president who supports housing with, among other things, a $15,000 tax credit to be taken at closing, not when home buyers file their federal income tax returns, the market should continue to thrive, according to most housing economists. There may be a few
| NATIONAL MORTGAGE PROFESSIONAL MAGAZINE
bumps along the way. But otherwise, only a lack of properties for sale should pose any real problems. “The Biden Presidency could bring several impactful changes to the house market,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. “The home buyer tax credit he proposed as a candidate would help Americans cover their down payment, and an expected wider role for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the secondary mortgage market means mortgage rates will remain low.” To see what mortgage professionals and their allies can expect going forward, let’s dissect the housing sector into its four key components – existing houses, newly constructed homes, financing and mortgage rates. Then, we’ll follow up with a few words about the commercial sector:
