USA Outlook February 13 to 17, 2023

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www.amchamguate.com WEEKLYNEWSLETTER FEBRUARY13TOFEBRUARY17

Oil Succumbs to One-Two Punch From US Oil Release and Inflation

OilextendedlossesthatbeganafterMonday’sclose with the announcement that the US was selling more crude from its strategic reserves, with a higher-than-expected inflation figure adding pressure.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve will fall to its lowest level in over 40 years as a result of the administration’s decision to move forward with a congressionally mandated sale of 26 million barrels of crude. West Texas Intermediate settled near $79 a barrel, slipping on the day but clawing back from overa3%dropearlyinthesessionafterdatashowed consumerpricesrosethemostinthree months.

Oilhashadamixedstartto2023astradersattempt to price the impact of China’s re-opening, supply curbs announced by Moscow and persistent concerns of a recession in the US. Crude stockpiles continue to grow, contributing another headwind for potential bulls. US inventories are projected to rise for the seventh straight week in the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report tomorrow.

Souce: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-drops-us-plan-sell-235849470.html

Apparently, love does have a price. It's $25.9 billion

Being alive sure feels expensive lately, and the rising costs of goods certainly hasn't spared Valentine's Day staples like flowers, candy, or a nicedinner out.

Who are they? The many Americans who will be spending an estimated $25.9 billion on wooing their boos(andothers)fortheholiday.

According to the National Retail Federation, that figure is up from $23.9 billion in 2022. Based on their survey, about half of all consumers over 18 plantocelebrate,withanaverageof$192.80spent byeach person.

That spending total isn't just for lovers, either. The survey of 7,616 U.S. adults found that the budget includedgiftsforfriends, pets,andco-workers.

CandyisthemostpopularchoiceforaValentine's Daygift,followedbygreetingcards,flowers,adate night, jewelry,giftcards,andclothing.

FEBRUARY 14, 2023 FEBRUARY 13, 2023
Photo: Canva Pro Photo: JEWEL SAMAD / AFP Via Getty Images Souce: AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File
https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/2023-02-14/apparently-love-does-have-a-price-its25-9-billion

SEC proposes rules that would change which crypto firms can custody customer assets

The Securities andExchange Commissionvoted 4-1 on Wednesday to propose sweeping changes to federalregulationsthatwouldexpandcustodyrules to include assets like crypto andrequire companies to gain or maintain registration in order to hold thosecustomerassets.

Theproposedamendmentstofederalcustodyrules would “expand the scope” to include any client assets under the custody of an investment advisor. Current federal regulations only include assets like fundsorsecurities,andrequireinvestmentadvisors, like Fidelity or Merrill Lynch, to hold those assets with a federal- or state-chartered bank, with a few highlyspecific exceptions.

It would be the SEC’s most overt effort to rein in even regulated crypto exchanges that have substantial institutional custody programs serving high-net-worth individuals and entities which custody investor assets, like hedge funds or retirementinvestmentmanagers.

The move poses a fresh threat to crypto exchange custody programs, as other federal regulators actively discourage custodians like banks from holdingcustomercryptoassets.

Souce:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/sec-chair-gensler-crypto-firms-need-to-registerto-custody-assets.html

Japanese company opens first auto parts plant in Guatemala

A Japanese company opened the first auto parts plant in Guatemala on Wednesday as part of an effort to boost the region’s economy and curb outmigration.

The plant is run by Yazaki North America, Inc. and makes automotive wiring harnesses. The $10 millionplantwasopenedwithassistancefromthe U.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopment.

It was part of an appeal by U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in 2021 for companies to invest in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. The idea is to create jobs for people in the region so they wouldn’thavetoemigrate.

The Yazaki plant in the western province of San Marcos will employ about 1,000 people. USAID providedfundingforadvisers.

The company's investment plan is US$160 million over a five-year term to install several factories, mainly in Guatemala, but also to expand its operationsinElSalvador.

FEBRUARY 16, 2023 FEBRUARY 15, 2023
Photo: Canva Pro Photo: Puerta del Istmo
kamala-harris-el-salvador-guatemala-city-3201aa59211b21a23aaea95d26528c22
Souce:
https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-us-agency-for-international-development-

Consumer debt hits record $16.9 trillion as delinquencies also rise

Consumerdebthitafreshrecordattheendof2022whiledelinquencyratesroseforseveraltypesofloans, theNewYorkFederalReservereported. Debtacrossallcategoriestotaled$16.9trillion,upabout$1.3trillion fromayearago,asbalancesroseacrossallmajorcategories.

Despite a decline in originations, mortgage balances increased to $11.9 trillion, up about $250 billion from the third quarter and about $1 trillion from a year ago. Originations for new home loans and refinancings fell to $498 billion, less than half where they were for Q4 in 2021 and a drop of about $135 billion from the thirdquarter.

Mortgage loans considered in “serious delinquency” of 90 days or more rose to a rate of 0.57%, stilllow but nearlydoublewheretheywerefromtheyearprior.Autoloandebtdelinquenciesrose0.6percentagepoint to2.2%, whilecreditcarddebtjumped0.8percentage pointto4%.

“Credit card balances grew robustly in the fourthquarter, while mortgage andauto loan balances grew at a more moderate pace, reflecting activity consistent with pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw,economicresearchadvisorattheNewYorkFed.

Souce:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/consumer-debt-hits-record-16point9-trillion-asdelinquencies-rise-as-well.html

FEBRUARY 17, 2023
Photo: Athit Perawongmetha | Reuters

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