I.M.F. Upgrades Global Outlook as Inflation Eases
The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that it expected the global economy to slow this year as central banks continued to raise interest rates to tame inflation, but it also suggested that output would be more resilient than previously anticipated and that a global recession would probablybeavoided.
The fund warned, however, that the fight against inflation was not over and urged central banks to avoidthetemptationtochangecourse.
Global output is projected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2023, from 3.4 percent last year, before rebounding to3.1percentin2024.
The I.M.F. projects growth in the United States to slow to 1.4 percent this year from 2 percent in 2022. Itexpectsthejoblessratetorisefrom3.5percentto 5.2percent next year, but that it is stillpossible that a recession can be avoided in the world’s largest economy.
“ThereisanarrowpaththatallowstheU.S.economy to escape a recession altogether, or if it has a recession,therecessionwouldberelativelyshallow,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist,said.
Souce:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/30/business/economy/imf-world-economicoutlook.html
U.S. consumer confidence ebbs in January; inflation expectations rise
U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in January as households continued to worry about theeconomy'sprospectsoverthenextsixmonths, asurveyshowedonTuesday.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidenceindex slippedto 107.1 this month from 109.0 in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 109.0. The survey places more emphasis on the labor market, which remainstight.
Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations rose to6.8%from6.6%lastmonth.
The present situation index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, increased to 150.9 from 147.4 last month. But the expectations index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business,andlabormarketconditions,droppedto 77.8from83.4inDecember.
This measure is below 80, a level The Conference Boardsayswasassociatedwithrecession.
Federal Reserve hikes interest rates 0.25 percentage point
The Federal Reserve is raising its benchmark interestrateaquarterofapercentagepoint,officials withthecentralbanksaidonWednesday,itseighth consecutive hike as policy makers try to subdue inflation.
The latest increaseinthe federalfunds rate— what banks charge each other for short-term loans — is smallerthantheFed's0.5percentagepointincrease in December as well as a string of three-quarter pointmovesoverthecourseof2022.
With the latest increase, the Fed's target interest rateissetinarangebetween4.50%and4.75%—its highestlevelsincelate2007.
TheFedsaiditscampaigntocurbpricesisworking, whileindicatingitplanstokeeprateshighforsome time.
"Over the past year we have taken forceful actions totightenthestanceofmonetarypolicy,"FedChair Jerome Powell said in a press conference Wednesday."Even so, we have more work to do. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserveandservesasthebedrockofoureconomy," hesaid.
Souce:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-raises-interest-rates-0-25percentage-point-2023-02-01/
People are snapping up chickens that are “heavy layers” in response to egg inflation
Spooked by a huge spike in egg prices, some consumers are taking steps to secure their own future supply. Demand for chicks that will grow into egg-laying chickens — which jumped at the onset of the global pandemic in 2020 — is rapid again as the 2023 selling season starts, leaving hatcheriesscramblingtokeepup.
Hatcheriesfromaroundthecountryarereporting thatdemandissurprisinglyrobustthisyear.Many attribute the spike to high grocery prices, and particularly to rapid inflation for eggs, which in December cost 59.9 percent more than a year earlier.
Grocery inflation has been particularly acute as grain supplies contracted and costs for fuel, fertilizer and animal feed have soared. Compounding the situation, avian flu began sweeping through commercial chicken flocks early last year, pushing egg prices sharply higher. Highly pathogenic avian flu had been found at farms raising 58 million birds in 47 states as of January, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Jobs report: U.S. economy adds 517,000 jobs in January, unemployment rate falls to 3.4% as labor market stuns
U.S. job growth blew past expectations in the first month of the year as the labor market continued to breezethroughinflation-fightingmonetarytighteningbytheFederalReserve.
The Labor Department released its monthly jobs report for January at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Here are the numbers,comparedtoWallStreetestimates:
Non-farmpayrolls:+517,000vs.+188,000expected
Unemploymentrate:3.4%vs.3.6%expected
Averagehourlyearnings,month-over-month:+0.3%vs+0.3%expected
Averagehourlyearnings,year-over-year:+4.4%vs.+4.3%expected
Friday's shock numbers mark a sharp jump from the prior month, which saw payrolls rise by an upwardly revised260,000.Theunemploymentrateslippedbackdownto3.4%inJanuary,thelowestsince1969.
Souce:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/january-jobs-report-labor-market-economyfebruary-3-2023-125436675.html