USA Outlook, December 02 to 06, 2024

USA OUTLOOK WEEKLY NEWSLETTER DEC 02 TO DEC 6

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DEC 02, 2024

DEC 03, 2024

Nasdaq, S&P 500 post record closing highs; investors await more data The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Tuesday, driven by gains in technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly, with broader market activity subdued as investors awaited critical jobs data later in the week. Analysts anticipate the U.S. monthly employment report on Friday, alongside private payroll data and the ISM services report, as key indicators for market direction.

Photo: Reuters

US manufacturing contraction slows in November, outlook uncertain U.S. manufacturing showed signs of improvement in November, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.4 from October's 46.5, though still signaling contraction. New orders expanded for the first time in eight months, and input prices dropped, reflecting optimism about potential businessfriendly policies. However, weak demand and backlogs continued to challenge production, with only three industries reporting growth, including computer and electronic products.

Federal Reserve policymakers offered reassurance about inflation trends but avoided signaling their stance on a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming December meeting. Financial markets currently estimate a 72% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Notable corporate movements included Amazon's 1.3% gain following its AI platform announcement at the AWS conference, while Tesla shares dropped 1.6% due to a decline in Chinamade vehicle sales. Despite a 5.7% rise in November, market strategists suggest the strong year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 (up 27%) might pause while waiting for fresh catalysts.

Concerns over tariffs, destocking, and labor shortages persisted, though some sectors saw reshoring efforts. Construction spending rose, boosting hopes for residential investment, while the Atlanta Fed raised its Q4 GDP growth estimate to 3.2%. Despite these gains, uncertainties in trade and monetary policy remain hurdles for future growth.

Photo: Andrew Kelly Source: Source:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/04/presidential-election-bettingodds-polling https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-manufacturing-improves-

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-bide-time-with-focus-more-data-fedcommentary-2024-12-03/

DEC 04, 2024

DEC 05, 2024

US labor market steadily cooling amid higher job openings, low layoffs

The U.S. labor market showed resilience in October,

Photo: Reuters

US Republicans eye two-step Trump legislative agenda Republicans in Congress are planning a two-step strategy to advance President-elect Donald Trump’s priorities as they prepare to control both chambers next year. Led by incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the plan involves using the budget reconciliation process to bypass the Senate filibuster.

The first bill will focus on border security, energy deregulation, and defense spending, while the second will aim to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, set to expire next year, along with new tax breaks Trump has proposed.

with job openings rising by 372,000 to 7.744 million and layoffs dropping by 169,000, the largest decrease since April 2023. The job openings-to-unemployed ratio increased to 1.11, indicating steady labor demand. Professional and business services, accommodation, and food services led the gains, though federal government vacancies declined.

Hires fell by 269,000 to 5.313 million, reflecting reduced activity across sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and finance, partly due to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. However, quits surged by 228,000 to 3.326 million, signaling worker confidence in finding better opportunities.

Economists anticipate a rebound in November’s payrolls, projecting 200,000 new jobs after October's hurricane-affected 12,000 gain. Despite ongoing challenges, the report suggests an orderly labor market slowdown, with limited large-scale layoffs supporting wage growth and consumer spending.

The plan has sparked concerns over its fiscal impact, with projections estimating up to $7.75 trillion in additional debt over the next decade. Despite these challenges, Republican leaders aim to finalize a budget resolution by January and pass the first reconciliation bill by March, leveraging their majority to implement their agenda within a narrow window of opportunity

Photo: Reuters Source:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-republicans-eye-two-step-

Source:

hhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-openings-rise-october-layoffsdecrease-2024-12-03/

DEC 06, 2024

US economy grew slightly in recent weeks, Fed survey says

Photo: Reuters

The U.S. labor market showed resilience in October, with job openings rising by 372,000 to 7.744 million and layoffs dropping by 169,000, the largest decrease since April 2023. The job openings-to-unemployed ratio increased to 1.11, indicating steady labor demand. Professional and business services, accommodation, and food services led the gains, though federal government vacancies declined.

Hires fell by 269,000 to 5.313 million, reflecting reduced activity across sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and finance, partly due to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. However, quits surged by 228,000 to 3.326 million, signaling worker confidence in finding better opportunities.

Economists anticipate a rebound in November’s payrolls, projecting 200,000 new jobs after October's hurricane-affected 12,000 gain. Despite ongoing challenges, the report suggests an orderly labor market slowdown, with limited large-scale layoffs supporting wage growth and consumer spending.

Source:

hhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-economy-grew-slightly-recent-weeks-fed-survey-says-2024-12-04/