US Outlook March 20 to March 24 / 2023

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www.amchamguate.com WEEKLYNEWSLETTER MARCH20TOMARCH24

US economy has investor backing as bank risks grow

Marketshavebeentradingasiftheendoftheworld is at hand – but what most participants see, behind therecentfinancialturmoilandcontagionfears,isa still-strong US economy, the MLIV Pulse survey shows.

The collapse of three US banks and the scramble to rescue others, including Europe’s Credit Suisse Group AG and First Republic Bank, sent stocks and bond yields plunging. Bets on Federal Reserve monetary tightening got dialed back, swap contracts reflect expectations for rate cuts within months, and recession warnings areramping up.

The survey was conducted after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, but before a weekend rescue of Credit Suisse, which wiped out holders of the bank’s riskiest bonds, raising concerns about a credit crunch.

Most lean toward a scenario in which the Fed ekes out some more rate hikes, even though history suggests that if recession risks do materialize, centralbanks canrapidlypivot to monetaryeasing.

Yellen tells nation’s bankers that the crisis is ‘stabilizing’

Speaking to the American Bankers Association, TreasurySecretaryJanetYellensaidstepstakento date – including an extraordinary rescue plan announced a week ago Sunday to assure depositors in two failed institutions they would have access to their money and other financial assistance made available by the Federal Reserve – should ease liquidity and credit concerns facing theindustry.

“The steps we took were not focused on aiding specificbanksorclassesofbanks.Ourintervention wasnecessarytoprotectthebroaderU.S.banking system,” Yellen said. “And similar actions could be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs thatpose theriskof contagion.”

Banks,especiallysmaller,regionalones,arefacing an exodus of deposits as customers seek the safety of larger banks while there has also been movement of money from banks that pay lower interest on their deposits into higher-paying money market accounts. This has the dual effect of destabilizing the smaller banks and tightening credit conditions throughout thesector.

MARCH 21, 2023 MARCH 20, 2023
Photo: LA INFORMACIÓN
Souce: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-20/us-markets-fear-financialcrisis-while-investors-still-confident-in-economy#xj4y7vzkg
Photo: JIM WATSON/AFP/GETTY IMAGES Souce:
https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2023-03-21/yellen-tells-nationsbankers-that-the-crisis-is-stabilizing

Fed raises interest rates 0.25%, intensifying inflation fight despite banking fears

The FederalReserveon Wednesdayraised its shorttermborrowingrate another0.25%,intensifying the central bank's fight against inflation despite concern that previous rate increases helped trigger thenation's banking crisis.

The Fed's benchmark interest rate has contributed to thefinancialemergencyfacing U.S. banks.

Inflation has fallen significantly from a summer peak, though it remains more than triple the Fed's target of 2%.

The rapid rise in interest rates, however, tanked the value of bonds held by Silicon Valley Bank, precipitating its failure and cascading damage for thefinancialsector.

Inastatement,theFedrejectedconcernsaboutthe financial system. "The U.S. banking system is sound andresilient," thecentralbank said.

Overthelastyear,theFedhasraiseditsbenchmark interest rate by 4.5%, the fastest pace since the 1980s.

California bill would ban processed foods that use chemicals linked to health risks

Assembly Bill 418, proposed by Rep. Jesse Gabriel from Woodland Hills, would ban processed foods withthechemicalsreddyeno.3,titaniumdioxide, potassiumbromate,brominatedvegetableoiland propyl paraben.

Allfivechemicalshavealreadybeenbannedinthe European Union due to studies that have linked them to dangers to people's health, including an increased risk of cancer, behavioral issues in children, harm to the reproductive system and damagetothe immune system.

The chemicals are often put in processed foods to makethemlastlonger,tastebetterandlookmore enticing.

The chemicals that would be banned by AB 418 have either never been independently evaluated, or were reviewed decades ago, by the Food and Drug Administration. The chemicals have been allowed to enter the country's food supply by being labeled a "generally recognized as safe" chemical.

emicals," said Gabriel. "This bill will correct for a

Souce:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/fed-decide-rate-hike-weighs-priority-bankingcrisis/story?id=98012003

MARCH 23, 2023 MARCH 22, 2023
Photo: Alex Brandon/Associated Press Photo: Canva Pro Souce:
https://abc7chicago.com/skittles-california-ban-bill/12991747/

Oil slides as U.S. holds off refilling strategic reserve

Oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid declining European banking shares and after U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said refilling the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may take several years, dampening demand prospects.

Brent crude fell $2.50, or 3.3%, to $73.41 a barrel by 1031 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude futures dived $2.47, 3.5%, to $67.49 a barrel.

Both benchmarks, which fell about 1% on Thursday, were on track to end the week slightly higher, after postingtheirbiggestweeklydeclinesinmonthslastweekduetobankingsectorturmoilandworriesabout a possiblerecession.

A stronger dollar , which rose 0.6% against other currencies on Friday, also fuelled the sell-off. A stronger greenback makes crude more expensiveto holders of othercurrencies.

"The lack of crude buying for the SPR represents a major blow to the oil demand outlook," PVM Oil analyst StephenBrennock said.

TheWhiteHousesaidinOctoberitwouldbuybackoilfortheSPRwhenpriceswereatorbelowabout$67$72per barrel.

Souce:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-us-holds-off-refilling-strategic-reserve-2023-03-24/

MARCH 24, 2023
Photo: Mario Tama | Getty Images

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