Trump’s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds
Betting markets have narrowed significantly on the eve of Tuesday’s presidential election, eroding Donald Trump’sleadoverKamalaHarrisas Americans cast their vote.
The former president and his allies have touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling in recent weeks, as the top platforms put him way ahead of Harris.
Aselectiondaynears,however,Trump’svictoryodds have faded, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend.
Betting markets have surged in popularity during this election campaign, with prominent apps like Polymarket and Kalshi surging up the app stores.
Many betting market forecasts for who was most likely to win the election also diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, a few weeks ago betting platforms put Trump clearly ahead.
Donald Trump wins 2024 US electioninhistoriccomeback
Assassination attempts, criminal convictions and a change in political opponent couldn’t stop Republican Donald Trump winning the 2024 US election.
Trump swept to a decisive victory on Wednesday morning after winning several crucial battleground states.
In three months’, time, the 45th president of the United States will become the 47th at an inauguration at the US Capitol. It’s the same location his supporters stormed and ransacked with a goal of stopping the certification of Joe Biden’selectionon6January2021.
Since then, Trump has made a remarkable political comeback that culminated with a victory speech to a sea of supporters wearing his iconic red MAGA caps.
"America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” he said to a crowd heaving with excitement.
At the same time, hope had drained away from Kamala Harris's supporters, who were leaving in droves from the Democratic Party event where she was hoping to make her own victory speech.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/04/presidential-election-bettingodds-polling
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/czxrnw5qrprt
Stocks surge to record highs as Trump returns to presidency
U.S. stocks rallied sharply to close at record highs on Wednesday after Republican Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a stunning comeback four years after being voted out of the White House.
The Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each ended at record levels with investors expecting lower taxes, deregulation and a U.S. president who is not shy to weigh in on everything from the stock market to the dollar, although fresh tariffs could bring challenges in the form of a higher deficit and inflation.
The Republican's win powered a rally in so-called "Trump trades," sending U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher, with the benchmark 10-year note yield hitting a four-month high of 4.479%. Bitcoin hit a record high of over $76,000 and the dollar was on track for its biggest one-day percentage gain since September 2022. "Investors were kind of portfolio jockeying to score up some of their risk exposure in anticipation of an outcome that was going into it, seemingly a toss-up," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
"And obviously, it turned very quickly and led to a very muchrisk-on daytoday inwhichanythingthatisn'ttied to the ground from a cyclical or pro-growth standpoint is absolutely launching."
Stocks close higher after Fed cuts interest rates
U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve announced a cut of 25 basis points (bps)ininterest rates,extendingasharprally sparked by Donald Trump's return as U.S. president.
The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as policymakers took note of a job market that has "generally eased" while inflation continues to move toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target.
Markets had almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut for the November meeting and will now eye upcoming commentary from the central bank for guidance about the path of monetary policy.
Investor expectations that Trump would lower corporate taxes and loosen regulations sparked a surge in each of the three major indexes in the prior session, with both the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 recording their largest one-day percentage jumps in two years.
"Elections have consequences and we could see a marginal improvement in growth relative to their forecasts, but also a marginal increase in inflation relative to their forecasts. That would call for a more gradual pace of rate reductions."
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