USA OUTLOOK APRIL 10 TO APRIL 14 / 2023

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www.amchamguate.com WEEKLYNEWSLETTER APRIL10TOAPRIL14

Housing is so unaffordable that banks are losing money for each mortgage they finance

The housing environment is so unaffordable that certain banks lost money for each mortgage they financed last year — the first time that's happened, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

In 2022, independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks lost an average of $301 for every mortgage they financed, the association said in a recent report. That represents a 113% decrease from last year's average income of $2,339 a mortgage and is the first time that banks posted negative profits for financing home loans since the MBA began recording profits in 2008.

That's largely due to the decrease in housing activity, MBA's vice president of industry analysis, Marina Walsh, said in a statement. Prospective buyers are holding back from the market as mortgage rates hover near a 20-year high and limitedhousingsupplykeepshomepriceselevated.

Banks and other mortgage companies each financed an average $2.6 billion in loans in 2022, roughly half the $5 billion figure for 2021.

Souce:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-housing-marketunaffordable-mortgage-rates-home-prices-inventory-demand-2023-4

IMF cuts GDP forecasts, says global economy heading for weakest growth since 1990

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday released its weakest global growth expectations for the medium term in more than 30 years.

The Washington, D.C.-based institution said that five years from now, global growth is expected to bearound3%—thelowestmedium-termforecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.

“The world economy is not currently expected to return over the medium term to the rates of growth that prevailed before the pandemic,” the fund said in its latest economic outlook.

Intheshortterm,however,theIMFexpectsglobal growth of 2.8% this year and 3% in 2024, slightly below the fund’s estimates published in January. The new estimates are a cut of 0.1 percentage point for both this year and next.

Looking at some of the regional breakdowns, the IMFseestheUnitedStateseconomyexpandingby 1.6% this year and the euro zone growing by 0.8%. However,the UnitedKingdom is seen contracting by 0.3%.

APRIL 11, 2023 APRIL 10, 2023
Photo: Robert Galbraith/ Reuters Photo: Ishara S. Kodikara | Afp | Getty Images
growth-forecasts-inflation-high-until-2025.html
Souce:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/11/imf-world-economic-outlook-april-2023-weak-

FBI warns consumers not to use public phone charging stations

The FBI is warning consumers against using public phone charging stations in order to avoid exposing their devices to malicious software.

Public USB stations like the kind found at malls and airports are being used by bad actors to spread malware and monitoring software, according to a tweet last week from the FBI’s Denver branch. The agency did not provide any specific examples.

“Carry your own charger and USB cord and use an electrical outlet instead,” the agency advised in the tweet.

While public charging stations are attractive to many when devices are running critically low on battery, security experts have for years raised concerns about the risk. In 2011, researchers coined the term “juice jacking” to describe the problem.

“Just by plugging your phone into a [compromised] power strip or charger, your device is now infected, and that compromises all your data,” Drew Paik, formerly of security firm Authentic8, explained to CNN in 2017.

More and more companies are calling workers back to the office — or outsourcing to cheaper workers overseas

Landing a remote job could become more and morechallenging. That'sbecausecompetitionfor remoteworkintheUSremainsfierce,thenumber ofjobpostingsareonthedecline,andsomeofthe remote jobs that remain are being outsourced overseas.

As of March, roughly 13% of US job postings were remote, according to the staffing firm Manpower Group, down from 17% in March 2022 but up from the pre-pandemic level of 4%. By the end of 2023, Nick Bloom, Stanford economist and leading work-from-home researcher, previously told Insiderthattheshareofremotepostingscouldfall to 10%.

"Employees in the US still want fully remote roles but these are shrinking," Bloom said, pointing to thebusinessesthathavecalledemployeesbackto the office at least a few days per week.

Somecompaniesareembracingremotework,but not in the US. Instead, they're outsourcing jobs overseas and saving on labor costs.

Souce:

APRIL 13, 2023 APRIL 12, 2023
Photo: Canva Pro
warning/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/12/tech/fbi-public-charging-port-
Photo: Getty Images Souce:
https://www.businessinsider.com/remote-jobs-return-to-office-outsourcing-to-
cut-costs-2023-4

U.S. retail sales fall 1% amid high inflation and rising rates

AmericanscuttheirspendingatretailstoresandrestaurantsinMarchforthesecondstraightmonth,asign consumers are becoming more cautious after a burst of spending in January.

Retail sales dropped 1% inMarch from February, asharper decline than the 0.2% fall in the previous month. Lower sales of autos, electronics, and at-home and garden stores drove the decline. The data isn’t adjusted for inflation, which rose only slightly last month.

The decline in sales adds to other recent evidence that the economy is cooling as consumers grapple with higher interestrates andthe impact ofa year-long bout ofelevatedinflation. Companies are posting fewer open jobs, hiring has slowed even as it remains solid, and layoffs have ticked up.

Inaddition,economistsarecloselywatchingto seeifbankspullbackonlendinginthewakeofthecollapse of two large banks last month. Many smaller banks have lost deposits to larger competitors, which could force them to offer fewer loans to consumers and businesses That could further weaken growth.

Last month, sales fell 3% at gas stations, a drop mostly driven by lower prices. Sales increased by a strong 1.9% at online stores, and ticked up 0.1% at restaurants and bars.

Souce:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/14/us-retail-sales-fall-1percent-amid-high-inflation-and-rising-rates.html

APRIL 14, 2023
Photo: Dustin Chambers | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesTimes

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