USA OUTLOOK OCTOBER 02 TO OCTOBER 06, 2023

Page 1

www.amchamguate.com WEEKLYNEWSLETTER OCTOBER02TO OCTOBER 06

Autoworkers strike has cost US economy nearly $4B, report says

An ongoing strike carried out by tens of thousands ofautoworkershascost theU.S.economybillionsof dollars, denying workers their wages and cutting output at car companies, according to a study from a Michigan-based research firm that was reviewed byABC News.

Overitsfirsttwoweeks, thestrikecostworkers$325 million in lost wages while imposing more than $1 billion in manufacturing declines at the Big 3 U.S. automakers – General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, which owns Jeep and Chrysler, the Anderson Economic Groupfound.

Accounting for additionalcosts to suppliers, dealers andconsumers,thestrikecausedatotalofnearly$4 billion in economic losses over its first two weeks, thereport said.

The work stoppage has grown steadily since its launch last month.

Nearly 13,000 members of the United Auto Workers walked out of three auto plants in Michigan, Missouri and Ohio on Sept. 15, the first day of the strike.

Souce:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/autoworkers-strike-cost-us-economy-4breport/story?id=103660564

McCarthy’s ouster could hurt the US economy

The fights between Washington lawmakers have becomeincreasinglyviciousevenwhenthestakes could not be higher. Squabbles on the Hill have consequences,andthelatestmay leadtoanother credit downgrade that could seriously damage theUSeconomy.

Over the summer, squabbling between the two parties nearly led to the US defaulting on its debt for the first time since the nation was founded almost 250 years ago. Then over the weekend the governmentnarrowlyavoidedashutdownthanks to a deal Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy forged withDemocrats.

But the move to keep the government funded through mid-November prompted an effort by hard-line Republicans led by Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz to oust McCarthy as speaker of the House. They succeeded in doing so in a historic vote on Tuesday.

Don’t expect this to go unnoticed by Moody’s Investors Service, the last of three major credit ratings agencies to assign US debt the highest possible AAA rating.

October 03, 2023 October 02, 2023
Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images Photo: CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/03/business/nightcap-mccarthy-
Souce: downgrade/index.html

Private sector job growth fell well below expectations: ADP

A key employment measurement for the U.S. economy came in well below expectations for September, indicating some labor market weakness amid othersigns ofstrength.

The U.S. economy added 89,000 private-sector jobs in September, according to payroll firm ADP. Economists polled by Dow Jones were expecting nearlydouble that amount at 160,000jobs.

NumbersforAugustwererevisedupto180,000jobs addedto the economy.

“We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month,” Nela Richardson, chief economist for ADP, said in a statement. “Additionally, we are seeing a steadydeclineinwages inthe past 12 months.”

Leisure and hospitality jobs drove the gains in September, adding 92,000 jobs, while transportation jobs decreased by 13,000 and business services jobs dropped by 32,000.

Broken down by business size, small and mediumsized businesses added 167,000 jobs, while large companies shed83,000 jobs onthe month.

Souce:

https://thehill.com/business/4237832-private-sector-job-growth-fell-well-belowexpectations-adp/

U.S. online sales to grow 4.8% in crucial holiday season, report says

Online sales duringthe crucialU.S. holiday season are expected to rise 4.8% from a year earlier as retailers go all out to woo inflation-hit consumers with even bigger discounts and promotions, a reportfromAdobeAnalyticsshowedonThursday. The sales are also expected to grow at a much faster pace and hit $221.8 billion for the period between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 which includes some of the biggest shopping days such as Cyber Monday, Thanksgiving and Black Friday. That compares with$211.7billion ayearearlier.

Adobe said the holiday season would see heavy discounts this year, especially in the toys, sporting goods and furniture categories, with markdowns peaking at 35%.

Last month, Mastercard's (MA.N)SpendingPulse report forecast a 6.7% rise in online sales during theholidayseason.

Retailers prepare months in advance for the allimportant season as it brings in nearly a third of theindustry's annualrevenue ina goodyear.

October 05, 2023 October 04, 2023
Photo: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh Photo: AFP via Getty Images Souce: https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-online-sales-grow-48crucial-holiday-season-report-2023-10-05/

Gas prices could fall to $3.25 by Halloween as oil plunges

Afterspikingtoalarminglevelsjustlastweek,oilpricesaresuddenlyinfree-fallmode.Thedramaticreversal should bringrelief to drivers (and nervous centralbankers) verysoon.

US oil prices plunged by 5.6% to $84.22 a barrel on Wednesday, marking the biggest one-day decline in a year. Crude droppedeven further Thursday, sinking as lowas $82.24 a barrel, afive-week low.

ThisisquitetheU-turn,evenforthenotoriouslyboom-to-bustoilmarket.Asrecentlyaslastweek,UScrude briefly touched $95 a barrel and Wall Street banks were predicting $100 or higher amid Saudi Arabia and Russia’s aggressivesupply cuts.

Now, gas prices arealready starting to retreat andexperts predict sharper drops to come.

Thenationalaveragefor regulargas dippedto $3.77agallononThursday,accordingtoAAA.That’s11cents belowthe 2023 peak set last month when gas prices experienced anunusualpost-LaborDay jump.

Gas prices willtumble to nearly$3.50 agallonnationally overthe next few weeks, AndyLipow, president of consulting firm Lipow OilAssociates, told.

Pointing to sinking wholesale prices, retail prices should drop each day by between 1.5 cents and 2.5 cents a gallongoing forward.

Souce:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/05/business/gas-prices-fall-by-halloween/index.html

October 06, 2023
Photo: Canva Pro

Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.