Authors of AJKC

UT H OR A S C O

K J A F

Csepregi, Zsolt Deputy Director for International Affairs The Great Divider/Connecter—Southeast Asia’s Future: A Shatterbelt or a Gateway Region?

Interview with Professor Tan Eng Chye, President of NUS

Interview with HE Ng Shin Ein, Ambassador of the Republic of Singapore to Hungary

Hamar, Balázs Head of Brussels Office and Deputy Director The Republic of Korea and ASEAN—Striving to Be the Best Partner

Kocsev, Bence Historian, Head of Győr Office

Papp, Viktória Anna International Relations Manager (China)

Schwarcz, Emese International Relations Manager (Japan) Decolonisation and the Changing Political Geography of Southeast Asia

Indonesia and the South–South Cooperation from Bandung until Today

Good Neighbour, Bad Neighbour— The Developing Relations between China and ASEAN

AJKC Book Review

A View on Regionalism through Japan–ASEAN Economic Relations

O F R E F E R E N C E S 8

Cover photo

Gardens by the Bay, Singapore. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission.

Inner cover photo

Inner front cover: Petronas Twin Towers, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission. Inner back cover: Vietnamese Girl. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission.

Photos between Chapters

2: Marina Bay Sands, Singapore. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission. 3: Hạ Long Bay, Vietnam. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission. 4: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission. 5: Angkor, Cambodia. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission.

2

INTRODUCTION

ASEAN—An overview in figures. Source of data: IMF and UNDP. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’ Southeast Asia graphics. Source: MuchMania/Shutterstock.

The Great Divider/Connecter—Southeast Asia’s Future: A Shatterbelt or a Gateway Region?

Most of the ethnic minority people in Sapa (Vietnam) work their land on sloping terraces. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission.

An economic pioneer of the region: Singapore. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission.

The ancient Khmer city of Angkor in Cambodia is one of the most visited places in Southeast Asia. Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission.

Southeast Asia is home to more than 240 million Muslims— about 42% of Southeast Asia’s and about 25% of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims. (The photo shows the Sultan Salahuddin Abdul Aziz Shah Mosque in Malaysia.) Source: Péter Antall’s private collection. Author: Péter Antall. Used with the author’s permission.

Decolonisation and the Changing Political Geography of Southeast Asia

The European colonisation and dates of independence in Southeast Asia. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:European_colonisation_of_Southeast_Asia.png, author: Rumilo Santiago, licence: CC BY-SA 4.0. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Member states of MAPHILINDO created in 1963. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO). Source: https:// commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_SEATO_member_ countries_-_en.svg, author: Maximilian Dörrbecker, licence: CC BY-SA 2.5. Redesign: Péter Somos.

Transforming Higher Education to Meet Future Challenges: The Experiences of NUS—Interview with Professor Tan Eng Chye, President of NUS

The photo published in this interview was provided by the NUS.

3

ASEAN PERSPECTIVES Interview with HE Ng Shin Ein, Ambassador of the Republic of Singapore to Hungary

The photo published in this interview was provided by the embassy.

Sustainable Development Towards an Integrated ASEAN Economic Community—Lessons from the Fight Against COVID-19 in Vietnam

Chart 1: Comparison between labour productivity of Vietnam and other regional countries (Vietnam =1). Source of data: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2015. The chart was created by the authors and designed by Péter Somos.

Chart 2: Contribution of production to growth, 2011–2015 (%). Source: Động thái và thực trạng kinh tế – xã hội Việt Nam 5 năm 2011–2015. Nhà xuất bản Thống kê – Công ty Cổ phần In Khoa, Hanoi, 2016. Design: Péter Somos.

Chart 3: Total-factor productivity growth, 2008–2013. Source of data: IMF: Potential growth for the rising Asia. 2014/1, cited from Vu Thanh Tu Anh [et al.]: Institutional Reform: From Vision to Reality. Harvard Kennedy School, 13-17/4/2015. 7. <https://ash.harvard.edu/files/ash/files/2015.04.05-velp_2015_ framework_paper-e.pdf >.The chart was created by the authors and designed by Péter Somos.

Chart 4: Foreign direct investment in Vietnam, 2000–2018 (net inflows, BoP, current US$). Source of data: Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) – Vietnam. The

World Bank. <https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT. DINV.CD.WD?end=2018&locations=VN&start=2000 > Licence: https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses#cc-by. The chart was created by the authors and designed by Péter Somos.

Southeast Asian Regional Processes from Indonesia’s perspective

The borders of Indonesia. Source: https://commons.wikimedia. org/wiki/File:Indonesia-Exclusive-Economic-Zone.png, authors: Maximilian Dörrbecker (Chumwa) and B1mbo, licence: CC BYSA 2.5. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

What does ASEAN centrality mean? Source of information: Mely Caballero-Anthony: Understanding ASEAN’s centrality: bases and prospects in an evolving regional architecture. The Pacific Review. 2014/4. 536–584. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Table 1: The top 20 countries employing Indonesian migrant workers, 2011–2014 (in person). Source: Indonesian Migrant Worker. Wikipedia. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_ migrant_worker > Accessed: 21 May 2020. Licence: CC BY-SA 3.0 Unported. Design: Péter Somos.

Great Power Competition from a Singaporean Perspective

Chart 1: Ethnic groups in Singapore (2018 est.). Source of data: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ geos/sn.html, licence: https://www.cia.gov/about-cia/sitepolicies/#copy. Design: Péter Somos.

Chart 2: Singapore’s major export and import partners in 2017. Source of data: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/geos/sn.html, licence: https://www.cia.gov/ about-cia/site-policies/#copy. Design: Péter Somos.

Table 1: The top 15 foreign direct investors in Singapore, 2014–2018 (in billion USD). Source: Foreign Direct Investment in Singapore 2018. © Department of Statistics, Ministry of Trade & Industry, Republic of Singapore, https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/ media/files/publications/trade_and_investment/fdi2018.pdf. Licence: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/terms-of-use, https://data. gov.sg/open-data-licence. Design: Péter Somos.

Singapore has always been an important transportation hub throughout history—and it continues to do so. Source: May_ Lana/Shutterstock.

The Singaporean Growth Model

Table 1: Economic indicators of Singapore’s development, 1965–2019. Sources of data: Department of Statistics, Singapore. <https://www.singstat.gov.sg > Accessed: 20 May 2020. Singapore Trade to GDP Ratio 1960–2020. Macrotrends. <https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/SGP/singapore/ trade-gdp-ratio > Accessed: 14 June 2020. Design: Péter Somos. The chart was created by the author and designed by Péter Somos.

Chart 1: Unemployment rate in Singapore, 1980–2021 (%). Source: Unemployment rate. International Monetary Fund DataMapper. <https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/ LUR@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/SGP > Licence: https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm, fair use. Redesign: Péter Somos.

Prime Minister Chok Tong Goh (left) and George Yeo (centre) meets Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld in 2003. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Goh_Chok_ Tong_and_George_Yeo_Yong-Boon._2003.jpg, author: R.D. Ward, licence: public domain.

Philippine Foreign Policy in the Context of the Southeast Asian Great Power Competition

Airbases in the Philippines the US can use as part of the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

President Rodrigo Duterte with Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzō and members of the Philippine delegation during the former’s visit to Japan in 2016. Source: https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Duterte_and_Abe_with_Philippine_ Delegation_20161026.jpg (Philippine Information Agency), author: Albert Alcain, licence: public domain.

4

PARTNERS AND INFLUENCES India’s Act East Engagement: From Southeast Asia to the Indo-Pacific

Narendra Modi, prime minister of India (middle, in white) and ASEAN heads of state and government at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi in 2018. Source: https://pcoo.gov.ph/wpcontent/uploads/2018/01/20180125-ph-alcain11.jpg, author: Presidential Communications Operations Office, the Philippines, licence: public domain.

India’s maritime borders. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/File:Map_of_the_Territorial_Waters_of_the_Pacific_Ocean. png#/media/File:Map_of_the_Territorial_Waters_of_the_Atlantic_ and_Indian_Ocean.png, authors: Maximilian Dörrbecker (Chumwa), licence: CC BY-SA 2.5. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Indian ships in the Bay of Bengal during the 2017 Malabar naval exercise. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Ships_from_the_Indian_Navy,_JMSDF_and_the_United_ States_Navy_sail_in_formation_in_the_Bay_of_Bengal_during_ exercise_Malabar_2017.jpg, author: US Navy, licence: public domain.

Australia’s Role in the Indo-Pacific’s Shifting Power Dynamics

Aids to Pacific island countries (in million USD). Source of data: Pacific Aid Map. Lowy Institute. <https://pacificaidmap. lowyinstitute.org/ > Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

China’s friends and relations in the Pacific. Source: John Garrick: Soft power goes hard: China’s economic interest in the Pacific comes with strings attached. The Conversation. 16 October 2018. <https://theconversation.com/soft-power-goes-hardchinas-economic-interest-in-the-pacific-comes-with-stringsattached-103765 > Licence: CC BY-ND 4.0. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Australian prime minister Scott Morrison and Indonesian prime minister Joko Widodo in a 2018 meeting. Source: https://www. flickr.com/photos/kedubesaustralia/44349906102/, author: Timothy Tobing, licence: CC BY 2.0.

Containers in Port Vila, Vanuatu. Source: https://www.flickr.com/ photos/mikecogh/31406589001/, author: Michael Coghlan, licence: CC 2.0.

Good Neighbour, Bad Neighbour—The Developing Relations between China and ASEAN

Southeast Asian railway routes built with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Chart 1: Trade balance, 2013–2018 (in billion USD). Source of data: https://data.aseanstats.org/dashboard/imts.hs2, licence: https://www.aseanstats.org/terms-and-conditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos.

Chart 2: Annual growth, 2014–2018 (%). Source of data: https:// data.aseanstats.org/dashboard/imts.hs2, licence: https://www. aseanstats.org/terms-and-conditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos.

Chart 3: Top reporters in 2018 (in billion USD). Source of data: https://data.aseanstats.org/dashboard/imts.hs2, licence: https://www.aseanstats.org/terms-and-conditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos.

A View on Regionalism through Japan–ASEAN Economic Relations

ASEAN Plus Three countries. Source: https://commons.wikimedia. org/wiki/File:ASEAN_Plus_Three_members.png, author: Rdb, licence: CC BY-SA 3.0. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Chart 1: Japanese–ASEAN export and import, 2014–2019 (in billion USD). Source of data: https://data.aseanstats.org/ dashboard/imts.hs2, licence: https://www.aseanstats.org/ terms-and-conditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos. RCEP leaders at the partnership’s 2nd summit in 2018. Source: Press Information Bureau on behalf of Prime Minister’s Office, Government of India, 14 November 2018, http://164.100.117.97/WriteReadData/Gallery/PhotoGallery// 2018/Nov/H2018111457818.JPG. ID 133481. Published under Government Open Data License—India: https://data.gov.in/ sites/default/files/Gazette_Notification_OGDL.pdf.

The Republic of Korea and ASEAN—Striving to Be the Best Partner

Members of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC). Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Treaty_of_Amity_and_Cooperation.png, author: 23prootie, licence: CC BY-SA 3. Redesign: Péter Somos.

Table 1: Flows of Inward Foreign Direct Investment to ASEAN from South Korea, 2014–2019 (in million USD). Source of data: ASEANstats, https://data.aseanstats.org/indicator/FDI. AMS.TOT.INF, licence: https://www.aseanstats.org/terms-andconditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos.

Chart 1: Trade in goods between the ASEAN and South Korea compared to that between the ASEAN and the world, 2010–2019 (in billion USD). Source of data: ASEANstats, https://data. aseanstats.org/trade-annually, licence: https://www.aseanstats. org/terms-and-conditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos.

Table 2: Visitor arrival to ASEAN member states from South Korea, 2013–2018 (in person). Source of data: ASEANstats, https://data. aseanstats.org/visitors, licence: https://www.aseanstats.org/ terms-and-conditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos.

EU–ASEAN Trade Relations: Beyond the Impasse

The EU’s free trade agreement (FTA) and investment agreement negotiations in ASEAN. Source: Blue Book 2020. EU–ASEAN Natural Partners. <https://euinasean.eu/wp-content/ uploads/2020/04/EU-ASEAN-Blue-Book-2020-eDocument. pdf > Licence: © European Union, 1995–2020, https://eeas. europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/8157/legalnotice_en; https://ec.europa.eu/info/legal-notice_en#copyrightnotice. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

EU–ASEAN. Source: Kawin Ounprasertsuk/Shutterstock.

5

REGIONAL ISSUES ASEAN–Australia Relations: Location, Position, and Timing

Members of FPDA, CPTPP, and QSD. Sources: https:// commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Five_Power_Defence_ Arrangements_member_nations.PNG, author: SelfQ, licence: public domain; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-

Pacific_Partnership_members.svg, author: L.tak, licence: CC BY-SA 4.0; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Quadrilateral-3.jpg, author: Darouet, licence: CC BY-SA 4.0 Redesign: Péter Somos.

Table 1: Australian trade with Southeast Asia, 2018–2019 (in million AUD). Source: Australian Department of Foreign Affairs’ Country Fact Sheets. Design: Péter Somos.

Maritime Competition in the Indo-Pacific—The Role of ASEAN Nations

China’s maritime claim and UNCLOS exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea. Source: https://commons.wikimedia. org/wiki/File:South_China_Sea_vector.svg, author: Goran teken, licence: CC BY-SA 4.0. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Naval equipment of the main Southeast Asian navies, 2020. Source of data: The Military Balance 2020. IISS–Routledge, London, 2020. 224. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

The Indo-Pacific Strategy and ASEAN

Countries participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:H00030en_fig01.jpg, author: Antichik, licence: CC BY-SA 4.0. Redesign: Péter Somos.

Countries of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ASEAN_Regional_ Forum_Map.png, author: Aris. Katsaris, licence: CC BY-SA 3.0. Redesign: Péter Somos.

The importance of the ASEAN region is patent in the new power struggles. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ File:Shipping_routes_red_black.png#/media/File:Shipping_ routes.png, author: T. Hengl, licence: CC BY-SA 3.0. Redesign: Péter Somos.

ASEAN–EU Cooperation: Present and Future

Trade and investment. Source: Blue Book 2020. EU–ASEAN Natural Partners. <https://euinasean.eu/wp-content/ uploads/2020/04/EU-ASEAN-Blue-Book-2020-eDocument. pdf > Licence: © European Union, 1995–2020, https://eeas. europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/8157/ legal-notice_en; https://ec.europa.eu/info/legal-notice_ en#copyright-notice. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

The EU and ASEAN. Source: Blue Book 2020. EU–ASEAN Natural Partners. <https://euinasean.eu/wp-content/ uploads/2020/04/EU-ASEAN-Blue-Book-2020-eDocument. pdf > Licence: © European Union, 1995–2020, https://eeas. europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/8157/ legal-notice_en; https://ec.europa.eu/info/legal-notice_ en#copyright-notice. Redesign: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Indonesia and the South–South Cooperation from Bandung until Today

Countries attending the Bandung Conference in 1955. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Asian-African_ Conference_Participants.svg, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ File:NAM_Members.svg, authors: Ichwan Palongengi and Bugoslav, licence: CC BY-SA 3.0. Redesign: Péter Somos.

Members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in 2012. Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_ NAM_Members_and_Observer_states.svg, Maxronneland, licence: CC BY-SA 4.0. Redesign: Péter Somos.

The members of the Group of 77. Source: https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/File:G_77.svg, author: Kyat02, licence: CC BY-SA 3.0. Redesign: Péter Somos.

The members of the Group of 15. Source: https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:G15_Nations_01.png, author: Eric Lefort, licence: CC BY-SA 4.0. Redesign: Péter Somos.

Regional Economic Integration for Global Access?—The Case of ASEAN

Early regional economic initiatives in Southeast Asia. Data compiled by the author. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Regional integration agreements since the late 1980s. Data compiled by the author. Design: Péter Magyar ‘Medoks.’

Chart 1: Intra-extra ASEAN trade, 2013–2018. Source of data: https://data.aseanstats.org/dashboard/imts.hs2, licence: https://www.aseanstats.org/terms-and-conditions-of-use/. Design: Péter Somos.

Table 1: Top ten sources of foreign direct investment inflows. Sources of data: ASEAN Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Database as of 05 October 2016. Foreign Direct Investment Statistics. Association of Southeast Asian Nations. <https:// asean.org/?static_post=foreign-direct-investment-statistics > Accessed: 26 May 2020. Design: Péter Somos.

6

ANTALL JÓZSEF KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

All pictures published in this chapter are possessions of the Antall József Knowledge Centre.

7

AUTHORS

The portraits of our contributing authors were provided by themselves. The portraits of authors of the Antall József Knowledge Centre are possessions of the Antall József Knowledge Centre.

9 NEXT ISSUE

It was thirty years ago that the world turned upside down in Eastern and Central Europe. Our future, perhaps for the first time during the tormented 20th century, finally seemed to look bright, as we threw off the Soviet yoke and left the spectre of Communism behind. Changes came as a shock, as nobody really expected them—although many had hoped for them. However, the first years, despite all the faith pinned on them, proved to be controversial, as people set their hopes too high, looking forward to achieving a Western lifestyle within a few years.

In spite of the initial hopes turning sour, the past thirty years still provide us with a perspective to claim that the overall balance of the changes is positive; no one thinks nowadays that continuing the Socialist dream would have been a viable option for the country.

The next issue of In Focus magazine aims to weigh the nature of the changes and pinpoint the main takeaways that can serve as an inspiration for the present and the future. In this attempt, the magazine strives to connect generations—help those who were witness to the events remember and those who were not there understand the importance those years, while also honouring the memory of József Antall, whose name our institution bears. IMPRINT

Publisher: Antall József Knowledge Centre Publishing Director: Péter Antall, Director, AJKC Editor-in-Chief: Zsombor Szabolcs Pál Editors: Zsolt Csepregi, Emese Schwarcz Language Editor: Mónika Vajda Proof-reader: Mónika Vajda Contributors: Csilla Lichtenstein, Zita Mihály Graphic Design:

Péter Magyar ‘Medoks,’ Péter Somos Pre-press Preparation: Péter Somos Cover: AJKC Printed and Bound: Printing Solutions Bt. Managing Director: Ádám Szöllősi

CONTACT INFORMATION

Antall József Knowledge Centre 1093 Budapest, Czuczor utca 2. +36 20 310 8776 www.ajtk.hu www.ajtkkonyvmuhely.hu

Previous issues of In Focus are available for free on the Knowledge Centre’s webpage www.ajtk.hu ISSN 2677-111X HU ISSN 2677-111X