JOSEPH SCOTCHIE

jscotchie@antonmediagroup.com

Roslyn native Richard Haass remains in the news. Recently, media outlets reported that Haass, along with Charles Kupchan and Thomas Graham, have met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergy Lavrov with the hope of beginning negotiations that might end the RussoUkrainian War. The trio are not current government officials; they are members of the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) and former State Department officials. Haass is the outgoing president of the CFR.

The meeting, which took place in April in New York, is described as a “Track Two” diplomacy meeting, one where government officials are not involved, but one that might lay the groundwork for a “Track 1.5” meeting where such officials engage in high-level diplomacy.

While both the White House and the Kremlin declined to comment, the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy only added that its position on the war had not changed. “Our position is unchanged — the fate of Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine. Many times the president and all our official speakers spoke about it. Not anonymously, but quite specifically and publicly,” officials told the media.

The meeting took place as Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive to retake provinces lost to Moscow since the initial Russian invasion took place in 2014.

U.S. and European capitals do not expect that offensive to succeed on such a grand scale. But they hope that once it ends this fall, negotiations even if only resulting in a frozen conflict that began in earnest.

In April, Haass and Kupchan co-authored an essay for Foreign Affairs, the publication of the CFR, spelling out a best-case scenario.

The article acknowledged cold realities.

“After just over a year, the war in Ukraine has turned out far better for Ukraine than most predicted. Russia’s effort to subjugate its neighbor has failed,” it began. “Ukraine remains an independent, sovereign, functioning democracy, holding on to roughly 85 percent of the territory it controlled before Russia’s 2014 invasion. At the same time, it is difficult to feel sanguine about where the war is headed. The human and economic costs, already enormous, are poised to climb as both Moscow and Kyiv ready their next moves on the battlefield. The Russian military’s numerical superiority likely gives it the ability to counter Ukraine’s greater operational skill and morale, as well as its access to Western support. Accordingly, the most likely outcome of the conflict is not a complete Ukrainian victory but a bloody stalemate.”

“The West needs an approach that recognizes these realities without sacrificing its principles,” the essay continued. “The best path forward is a sequenced twopronged strategy aimed at first bolstering

Ukraine’s military capability and then, when the fighting season winds down late this year, ushering Moscow and Kyiv from the battlefield to the negotiating table. The West should start by immediately expediting the flow of weapons to Ukraine and increasing their quantity and quality. The goal should be to bolster Ukraine’s defenses while making its coming offensive as successful as possible, imposing heavy losses on Russia, foreclosing Moscow’s military options, and increasing its willingness to contemplate a diplomatic settlement. By the time Ukraine’s anticipated offensive is over, Kyiv may also warm up to the idea of a negotiated settlement, having given its best shot on the battlefield and facing growing constraints on both its own manpower and help from abroad.”

“The second prong of the West’s strategy should be to roll out later this year a plan for brokering a cease-fire and a follow-on peace process aimed at permanently ending the conflict. This diplomatic gambit may well fail. Even if Russia and Ukraine continue to take significant losses, one or both of them may prefer to keep fighting. But as the war’s costs mount and the prospect of a military stalemate looms, it is worth pressing for a durable truce, one that could prevent renewed conflict and, even better, set the stage for a lasting peace.”

Other broader concerns include the reality that the war is “eroding the West’s military readiness and depleting its weapons stockpiles; the defense industrial base cannot keep up with Ukraine’s expenditure of equipment and ammunition.”

In addition, the conflict is “imposing high costs on the global economy, as well. It has disrupted supply chains, contributing to high inflation and energy and food shortages. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that the war will reduce global economic output by $2.8 trillion in 2023.”

There is also the political calculus. With a presidential campaign approaching, the possibility of a Republican Party victory would place future aid in jeopardy.

The co-authors admit that a lasting peace may never happen with President Vladimir Putin in power. And so, a frozen peace may be the best possible outcome for now.

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