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OneRoof.co.nz
ONEROOF-VALOCITY HOUSE VALUE INDEX
THE SLOW BURN IS COMING
Northland $837,000
New Zealand $1,052,000
+6.4%
The housing market has so far shrugged off interest rate rises and Covid lockdowns, ending the year with prices higher than ever. But value growth in some regions has stalled and there are clear signs that 2022 won’t be as hot – just don’t expect there to crash. OWEN VAUGHAN and CATHERINE MASTERS report.
+5.9%
Auckland $1.506m
+6.6%
Waikato $937,000 year ago the housing market was in boom mode, with the country’s average property value up 12% on the previous year to $827,000. The headlines screamed “housing frenzy” as first-home buyers and investors, enticed by ultra-low interest rates and driven by post-lockdown FOMO, flooded the market. Concerns were raised that prices were rising too quickly and in December the Reserve Bank signalled its intention to bring back the loan-tovalue ratio rules it removed in March 2020 in a bid to take the heat out of the market. Fast-forward 12 months, however, and house prices have gone even higher, with the average property value rising 27% to just over $1.05 million, despite repeated a!empts to slow the pace of growth. The Reserve Bank is again threatening to tighten the flow of credit, amid fears that inflation is out of control and that house price rises are at unsustainable levels. This time there are signs that the boom is coming to an end. While overall house price inflation is still strong, the housing market is showing signs of fatigue in some parts of the country. The OneRoof-House Value Index figures for November point to slowdowns in eight regions. The weakest part of the country is Marlborough, where the average property value rose just 1.1% over the quarter to $759,000, although Gisborne and Manawatu-Whanganui were not far behind, recording growth of just 2.7% and 3.6% respectively. Canterbury, driven by strong sales action in Selwyn and Christchurch, enjoyed the country’s biggest rise per quarter, with its average property value up 9.3% to $743,000. And despite a more than three-month-long lockdown, Auckland saw its average property value rise 6.6% to just over $1.5m - $93,000 more than where it was at the start of the Delta outbreak. Southland Buyer demand in the $498,000 city is strong and sales +4.6% volumes are picking up after a slow and uneasy September, with more stock making its way to market and agents racing to cram in as many auctions as they can before Christmas.
+4.6%
Bay of Plenty $1.022m
+5.9%
The Bay of Plenty has joined Auckland and Greater Wellington in the $1m club, with Gisborne quarterly growth of 5.9% pushing the region’s $688,000 average property value up $57,000 to $1.022m. +2.7% Also fast approaching the $1m milestone are Tasman (average property value of $973,000) and Waikato ($937,000). Taranaki With an average property value of $373,000, Hawke’s Bay $667,000 the West Coast remains the cheapest region for $878,000 property, although with quarterly growth of +4.1% +5.4% 5.7% it’s likely to nudge over the $400,000 mark last three months to sometime soon. Manawatu$1.254m. Of the major metros, Christchurch enjoyed the Whanganui Dunedin remains the biggest quarterly value rise (up 10.1% $668,000 weakest major metro, to $731,000), which is not surprising +3.6% with the city’s average given its recent strong run of Nelson property value rising 4.1% auction sales. $866,000 over the quarter to $731,000, A 7.7% rise over the quarter while three-month growth added another $85,000 to +5.7% in Queenstown-Lakes and Tauranga’s average property Wellington Tasman Hamilton was 4.9% and 5.3% value, now $1.189m, and it’s Marlborough $1.094m $973,000 respectively. possible that continued heat $759,000 +4.4% Property values in all but in the market will push it +5.8% +1.1% four of New Zealand’s 72 ahead of Wellington, territorial authorities grew over the quarter. On where the the slide were Waikato (-1%), Ashburton (-1.9%), average West Coast Ruapehu (-2.1%) and Kawerau (-8%), although all property value $373,000 four saw 12 months of growth of more than 20%. rose 3.6% +5.7% Within Auckland, the heat is evident on ($44,000) in the Waiheke Island (up 8.9% over the quarter to $2.073m); new-build mecca Papakura (up 8% to $1.141m); and South Auckland, where developers’ thirst for land has driven up the average property Canterbury value 8.2% to $1.122m. $743,000 The Auckland suburbs that have done best during lockdown are all coastal: Piha (up 14.6% +9.3% to $1.51m); Tawharanui Peninsula (up 14.4% to $2.344m); and Kawau Island (up 14.4% to What the $1.018m). map tells you Dollar-wise, home-owners in Herne Bay came The map shows the up tops, with the last three months adding average property value almost $300,000 to the average property value. for each region on November 15, 2021 and The harbour-front enclave is still the country’s the three-month change most expensive suburb for real estate, with the in growth. The different colours on the map average property value breaking the $4m mark express the change in (Murupara in Whakatane is the cheapest, with an house values in each location - orange means average property value of $174,000). Otago strong growth, blue means Of the 768 suburbs nationwide that recorded $899,000 slow or negative growth.
+4.7%
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