Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management - Earthquake

Aakash Bhochhibhoya

Charaf eddine Djelouat

Melika Nematollahikheirabadi

Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

Spatial Planning - winter semester 2022-2023

Outline

Introduction

Definition causes and effects

Why we need Spatial Planning ?

Case Studies Algeria-Nepal- Iran

A/Characterization of the setting

• Key information about the country

• Hazard profile

• Vulnerability profile

• Risk profile

B/Management strategy

• Key objectives

• Role of actors

• Key instruments/measures

C/Importance/relevance for spatial planning

D/Discussion

Introduction

Natural Disaster

A natural hazard is the product of a geological, geophysical or hydro-meteorological activity in the form of an earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, flooding or storm (Benson & Clay, 2004).

Earthquakes are generally caused by a sudden release of stress along faults in the earth’s crust.

There are four types of earthquakes

• Tectonic earthquakes

• Induced earthquakes

• Volcanic earthquakes

• Collapse earthquakes

Introduction

Causes

• Plate Tectonic Movements

• Volcanic Eruptions.

• The construction of large dams results in earthquakes.

• Other Reasons: Nuclear explosions, climate change?

Effects

• Damage to buildings, roads, rails, factories, dams, and bridges.

• Landslides

• Fires in the forest and urban areas

• Floods and Tsunami

Introduction

Why do we need Disaster Risk Management?

Every year, around 60,000 people die worldwide in natural disasters. The majority of the deaths are caused by building collapses in earthquakes ( world bank)

Trigger Other natural disasters: Tsunami, Flooding, Landslide......

Algeria

Algeria in Numbers

Algeria in Numbers

https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/algeria/vulnerability

Algeria in Numbers

source: global earthquake model GEM

Algeria in Numbers

Annual average losses Major Earthquakes in Algeria

Date Localization Magnitude Casualties and damages

1954 Chlef 6.7 1243 Casualties

1980 Chlef 7.7 5000 Casualties

80% of residences and other buildings damaged or destroyed $5.2 Billion

2003 Boumerdes 6.8 2200 casualties more than 100 000 buildings were destroyed $5 Billion

source: Making Algeria Resilient Achieving Disaster Risk Reduction in the Arab States: Good Practice Country Brief 2013

source: global earthquake model GEM

Disaster Risk Management

Disaster Risk Management

preventiomand preparedness

General Rules

*National monitoring system

*National warning system

*National simulation programs

Specific prescreption

Disaster Risk Management

Response

*Highways and roads

infrastructur e

*Strategic links and telecoms

*Strategic value Buildings

Devices for strategic security

Additional devices

Relief

Planning

Particular planning plans

Structural measures

*Insurance system

*ORSEC Plans

National Inter-dep Departmental Municipal Sensitive sites

Strategic reserves

Repair damage

Specialized institutions

Internal intervention plans

Disaster Risk Management

EL Asnam Earthquake

1980

The National centre of “Recherche

Appliquée en Genie Parasismique” (CGS), a specialized research centre for earthquake engineering

1990

The national authorities finalized the national construction code by 1983

RPA 81

1987

In1988 Revision of RPA 81 and introduction of new micro-zoning identifying seven zones

RPA88

New Urban planning instruments

PDAU and POS

Disaster Risk Management

2000

Law n °04-05 14 August 2004 on Disaster Management and new building regulations adopted the new version of RPA 99

2006-2010 Earthquakes

New delegation to coordinate multiple sectors

Revision of the national construction RPA99

Boumerdes Earthquake

2003

-Seismic regulations revised in 2008

-National Scheme for Land Use planning SNAT first integrated DRR.

2013

Disaster Risk Management

Integrated DRM agenda

Since 2009, Sustained political interest, engagement and commitment from the highest political office have given the issue of DRM national prominence.

As part of a long-term program 2010-2031 program for new highway improvement, transport networks and maritime infrastructure, the Ministry of Public Work established the Algerian Seismic Public Works Code (RPOA) and developed a database to mark major infrastructure at risk from earthquake.

The Ministry of Land-Use Planning and Environment worked closely with UNDP to integrate DRR into urban planning. This effort was informed by GIS mapping, which is supporting the implementation of risk-sensitive plans across nine wilayas.

Disaster Risk Management

Seismic risk management planning in Algeria is based on the following actions

The main actors are

Seismic monitoring of the territory

Laws on planning and urbanism

Research Centre for Astronomy, Astrophysics and Geophysics

Set of paraseismic rules

Technical control of construction and insurance obligation

National Centre for Applied Research in Earthquake Engineering

Technical control of construction

Ministry of housing, urban planning and cities

Structural measures on existing structures

Training Formation

Challenges

The lack of clearly defined institutional coordination mechanisms for DRM at the national and sectoral level, coupled with weak local implementation and regulatory capacities, has made it difficult for codes and standards to be enforced.

The 2004 law requires municipalities to have specific disaster management responsibilities. However, resources and capacities at the municipality level remain limited. additional support is required to empower municipalities to undertake effective DRM actions, through the provision of adequate budgets and capacities.

Even though the DRM Agenda of Algeria showed a strong will to deal with disasters, there much remains to be done on Algeria’s path to reducing vulnerabilities and building greater disaster resilience.

The civil society sector remains weakly engaged.

References

Application of Remote Sensing and GIS to Assess the Construction Pressure on the Environment of Algiers (Algeria) During the Three Last Decades and Their Evolution by the Use of Markov Chain

THE NEED FOR AN INTEGRATED DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR CITIES OF GEO-TECHNO-ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS IN NORTH AFRICA: A CASE STUDY OF ALGIERS (ALGERIA)

Programme 2018-2019 de revue par les pairs dans le cadre de la coopération de l'UE en matière de protection civile et de gestion des risques de catastrophe.

Making Algeria Resilient Achieving Disaster Risk Reduction in the Arab States: Good Practice Country Brief

Think hazard https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/4-algeria/EQ

Ali Benssam, Nadia Nouali-Taboudjemat Towards an IT-Based Platform for Disaster Risks Management in Algeria

Nepal

Map of Nepal

From the fiscal year 2020-21 on May 15, Nepal’s new map covers an area of 147,516 sq km. The new map incorporated the villages including Gunji, Nabhi and Kuti lying in Limpiyadhura, Lipulekh and Kalapani.

Nepal in Numbers

Population (Million): 30.567

Total land area: 147,181 km2

Population density: 202.8 per km2

Population Growth Rate (%/Year): 1.62

GDP (Billion USD): 20.91

GDP per Capita (USD): 920

Gross Savings Rate (%): 31.7

Life Expectancy (Years): 71

GINI Index: 22.5

Human Development Index: 0.6

Nepal in Numbers

Nepal is one of the seismically most active regions in the world, and will remain one for millions of years.

Nepal in Numbers

Seismic Hazard

Nepal ranks 11th and 16th globally in terms of vulnerability to earthquakes and multi hazards respectively (UNICEF). Whereas Kathmandu is one of the highly seismic prone city among 27 megacities in the world. It lies in Zone V i.e. is the most vulnerable area.

Nepal in Numbers

Average losses

Nepal ranks 11th and 16th globally in terms of vulnerability to earthquakes and multi hazards

Nepal in Numbers

Nepal (April 25, 2015)

Aftershocks until May 12, 2015

▪ Nepal – high population density remote communities poorly constructed buildings and unstable slopes the catastrophe was made so much worse

▪ Over 40 aftershocks about 4.5 or higher in 3 days

▪ It causes landslides and avalanches – sleeping out in the open & rainy season was near

Nepal in Numbers

The earthquake in Nepal that rocked the nation on 25 April - avalanches, flying rocks and smothering debris, and historic sites, squares and spires all reduced to random piles of rubbles.

Economic Analysis of Losses

Earthquake 2015

Think: Nepal has 81 % of its population living in rural areas, often on steep mountain sides. How does this impact on the level of seriousness of the hazard?

UK gave £ 33 million in aid. Japan sent search and rescue teams. Many people were pulled out of the rubble and survived. India provided 50 tones of water, and medical supplies.

Background – National Context

Timeline of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Nepal

Timeline of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Nepal

Disaster Risk and Management Act, 2074 (2017/2018)

Repeals and replaces the Natural Calamity Relief Act of 1982 A.D. Provides for the cooperation of national and local authorities in the framework of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council in the case of natural disasters in Nepal.

Focuses on protecting public life, public and private property, natural and cultural heritages, physical properties and minimizing the disaster risk.

Timeline of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Nepal

Post disaster: 8 months after the earthquake – establishment of NRA (Nepal Reconstruction Authority)

For policy making and fund arrangement

⮚ Providing house reconstruction grant (NRs 300,000) = 2,300 USD

Reconstruction Authority; NRA was formed with the clear plan to maximize the use of local labor, resources and means guided by legal framework and Post Disaster Recovery Framework (2016 2020).

Need of RSLUP in Kathmandu Valley (Nepal)

Urban Economic Region

Inward Migration

Haphazard

Urban Sprawl

Exposed to Multi Hazard Risk

To develop a comprehensive land use plans of Kathmandu valley with consideration of multi hazard risk sensitivity and climate change stimuli.

Need of RSLUP

RSLUP (Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan)

Alignment of RSLUP in Kathmandu Valley (Nepal)

Preparation of KV - RSLUP was aligned with the following plans and policies.

National Land Use Policy 2012 A.D. (MOLMCPA)

2012

Long Term Development Concept Plan (DUDBC)

2002

National Urban Development Strategy (MOUD)

2015

2015 - 2035

Draft 20 Years Strategic Development Master Plan (KVDA)

Municipal Hazard Risk and Land Use Zoning Maps

Earthquake (25 April 2015)

SHORT TERM

Tent cities sprung up Epicenter area was visited by helicopter the day after the earthquake

LONG TERM

Asian Development Bank (ADB) provided a USD $3 million grant to Nepal for immediate relief efforts

ADB - USD $200 million for the first phase of rehabilitation

90 percent of soldiers from the Nepalese army mobilized to worst hit areas

GIS tool “Crisis mapping” was used to coordinate the response

UK donated £73 million

The UK provided 30 tones of humanitarian aid and 8 tones of equipment

On May 1st international aid agencies like Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) and the Red Cross

Surgeons and inflatable hospitals were used

UK offered expert help by sending around 100 search and rescue responders, medical experts, and disaster and rescue experts

Earthquake (25 April 2015)

BUILDING CODES & BYLAWS

Focuses on Structural members

National Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET)

Challenges

Lack of sensitization about the importance of considering Disaster risks.

Lack of local political interest is also a challenge in mainstreaming Disaster risk issues into land use planning.

Different values of the land held by different section of the population.

Lack of coordination between various ministries and different Government bodies.

Data collection, analysis , mappings were done but lacking in implementation process - Bylaws and Codes

Less effort by KVDA and MoUD for it’s Implementation

References

▪ Website of Swiss Seismological Service, 2020, ETH Zurich.

▪ Website of US Geological Survey, 2020, usgs.gov.

▪ Disaster Risk Reduction in Nepal-Status Report 2019, GoN/ADPC/UNDRR.

▪ Probabilistic seismic liquefaction hazard assessment of Kathmandu valley, Nepal, K. C., S. et. al., 2020.

▪ Revisiting Major Historical Earthquakes in Nepal: Overview of 1833, 1934, 1980, 1988, 2011, and 2015

Seismic Events, Chaulagain, H. et. al., 2018.

▪ Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment, 2010, GoN/ADPC/NGI/CECI.

▪ Nepal Earthquake 2015-Post Disaster Needs Assessment-Vol. A: Key Findings, 2015, GoN-NPC.

▪ Disaster Risk Management: Policies and Practices in Nepal, Dangal, R., 2011.

▪ An Open Data and Citizen Science Approach to Building Resilience to Natural Hazards in a Data-Scarce Remote Mountainous Part of Nepal, Parajuli, B. P. et. Al., 2020.

▪ Resilience, E. (2014). Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning Guidebook, February.

▪ Thapa , P. B. (2018). Geo disaster and risk sensitive land use planning in Nepal. 35, 167 170.

▪ Government of Nepal. (2019). Nepal Disaster Report 2019. 1 54.

▪ Narasimhan , R. (2017). Addressing Disaster Risks in Development Planning. 1 51.

▪ Final Report ,Kathmandu Valley Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan (2016)

▪ Resilience, E. (2014). Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning Guidebook, February.

▪ Thapa, P. B. (2018). Geo disaster and risk sensitive land use planning in Nepal. 35, 167 170.

▪ Government of Nepal. (2019). Nepal Disaster Report 2019. 1 54.

▪ Narasimhan, R. (2017). Addressing Disaster Risks in Development Planning. 1 51.

▪ https://www.undrr.org/about undrr/history

▪ https://unfccc.int/process and meetings/the paris agreement

▪ Integrating Risk Sensitivity Concerns in IUDP, A Case Of Changunarayan, MSc

▪ http://www.kvda.gov.np/

IRAN

Iran in Numbers

Population: 85,028,760

Area: 1.648 million km²

Population Growth (annual %) 1.2 Life expectancy: 77

Population Density

Population Density

• Due to the geographic and climatological features of the country, the distribution of the Iranian population has always been very uneven.

• The heaviest concentration is in the western and northern part of the country, where 64% of Iranians live on 27% of the territory (72.4 km2).

Geographical location

• The Iranian Plateau is subject to most types of tectonic activity, including active folding, faulting and volcanic eruptions. It is well known for its long history of disastrous earthquake activity. Not only have these earthquakes killed thousands, but they have also led to waste of valuable natural resources. Since 1900, at least 126,000 fatalities have resulted from earthquakes in Iran. In addition, the Iranian Plate is bordered by the Indian Plate (to the southeast), the Eurasian Plate(to the north), and the Arabian Plate (to the south and west), which is where the Zagros fold and thrust belt (an ancient subduction zone) lies.

Iran in the middle of three plates

Plate boundarys shown in red, Map: Wissensplattform eskp.de, Licence: CC BY 4.0)

Type of Climate

Frequency of Disasters in Iranian Provinces

Seismic Hazard in Iran

• Earthquake experts believe that Iran is one of the most prone to earthquakes in the world

• According to the official statistics of the last 25 years, six percent of the country's casualties were caused by earthquakes.

• Statistical analysis of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.6 on the Richter scale indicates that there have been about forty earthquakes in Iran in the last hundred years

Major earthquakes in Iran

The 9.4 million people of Tehran make their homes in the 1,700 square kilometers in the sprawling urban city.

• The city is very densely populated, with an average of 1.6 people per room in the houses across the city - and 11,800 residents per square kilometer.

Tehran

• Tehran is located in a seismic prone area in an active part of Alpine-Himalayan Orogenic belt

(Alborz Mountain Range) and has surrounded by several active faults. This city has experienced some destructive earthquakes in its history.

Risk map of Tehran, (Kamranzad, 2020)

Master Plan

Considering the existing condition, Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO), one of the subsidiaries of Tehran Municipality, has formulated a master plan for disaster risk reduction in Tehran:

The framework of the master

The three objectives are in correspondence with three plans:

1. prevention and mitigation plan,

2. emergency response plan

3. rehabilitation and reconstruction plan.

The ten strategies are classified dependent on earthquake countermeasure.

MAIN COMPONENTS OF TEHRAN DISASTER MANAGEMENT MASTER PLAN

Mitigation

1.strengthening existing buildings

2.strengthening existing buildings

3.Identification of safe evacuation space

4.Strengthening existing infrastructures and lifelines

5.Establishment of disaster mitigation policies

Preparedness

1. Provision of earthquake information and education

2. Establishment of community level disaster management organization

Emergency response

1. Improvement of emergency response system

2. Formulation of emergency response plan

Reconstruction

• Establishment of reconstruction and rehabilitation procedure

• Stage 1- Establishing the Preliminary Framework for Urban Reconstruction: This framework should be formulated within one week from the time of the earthquake for confirming the initial framework for the reconstruction of the city.

• - Stage 2- Formulation of Basic Policies for Urban Reconstruction: These policies should be decided from one week to one month after the earthquake. During this period the basic policy regarding the reconstruction of the city will be drawn up at the postdisaster reconstruction headquarters in order to make clear the fundamental approach to be taken towards the rebuilding work, and when this has been determined the residents will then be notified of it.

• - Stage 3- Formulation of Basic Plan for Urban Reconstruction: This plan should be prepared from one month to six months on. During this period a basic plan will be drawn up for rebuilding the town and with this clarify the both the fundamental plan for the regeneration of the whole of the Tehran City and/or each area that has suffered damage and also the methods for achieving this.

• - Stage 4- Confirmation of the Work Program for Urban Reconstruction: These activities should be implemented from six months to a year on. In this stage the work will be conducted towards getting the agreement of the local residents and create a program of work for the reconstruction based on the basic plan that was formulated.

• - Stage 5- Implementation of Urban Reconstruction Projects: This part will be started after one year and

• may last for several years. In this stage, rebuilding the town will be forwarded based upon the work program for urban reconstruction drawn up in Stage 4. In order to carry this out rapidly, endeavors to secure financial resources will be indispensable.

The large number of casualties from Iranian earthquakes has been mainly due to:

• The immediate, total destruction of adobe and other improperly built buildings and a lack of reinforcement of aseismic building codes or any proper control;

• time of the earthquake (day or night);

• Delay in emergency action and lack of plans for a proper and immediate search-and-rescue operation following an earthquake;

• Demography;

• Underestimating geological hazards;

• Endemic poverty and vulnerability;

• Corruption of irresponsible authorities

Mis/Management

• These disasters have always generated short periods of attention for discussions of earthquake risk and relocation plans for affected areas for rich countries with plenty of resources (money, engineers, scientists, and planners), where people and investments are concentrated in settlements located along active fault zones

• A few months after each disaster-causing medium- to largemagnitude earthquake, earthquake-risk-minimization plans and awareness by news media, authorities, and citizens are forgotten. Even complete destruction of urban and rural areas has not stimulated any serious action in reinforcing buildings, retrofitting existing public structures, or avoiding construction of buildings on active faults in cities like Tehran, Tabriz, and Neyshabur.

Reference

• Mahmoud Golabi, Mahdi Shavarani, Gokhan Izbirak, 2017, An edge-based stochastic facility location problem in UAV-supported humanitarian relief logistics: a case study of Tehran earthquake

• Poormohamadi, Mosayebzadeh, 2008, vulnerability of Iranian cities agians earthquake and the role of local participation

• Zangiabadi, Tabrizi, 2006, Tehran earthquake and spatial assessment of vulnerability of urban areas

• Hoseini, Amini hoseini, 2008, RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN EARTHQUAKE RISK MANAGEMENT

PLANS AND PROGRAMS IN TEHRAN

• Mahdinia, Mohammad Hadi, Achieving an integrated approach to reduce urban vulnerability against earthquake, Case Study: Metropolis of Mashhad, Iran

• Kamranzad , Memarian ,Mehdi Zare, 2020, Earthquake Risk Assessment for Tehran, Iran

• https://resource-allocation.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12962-020-00242-8/figures/5

Discussion Part let’s Play a reflection Game

(3 groups) Work as a team and fast. 18min thinking- 4min presentation for each group.

• As spatial planners, put yourselves in decision-maker positions. Brainstorm weaknesses and strengths regarding strategies and measures implemented by the government of Nepal before and after the last Earthquake.

• Based on the previous answer and your background as a planner, suggest a new Scheme for Earthquake management.

Think !!!

• What are the Challenges arising in your country because of (Incomprehensive) Land Use planning?

• Who are the key players in your Country for Disaster Risk Management/LU Planning?

• Resilience, Resilient recovery, Build up better…..

• ………

PS: There is no right or wrong answer just be yourself, confident and Elaborate

Reflection Game (Group 1)

Reflection Game (Group 2)

Reflection Game (Group 3)

Groups

THANK YOU!