PLAYERS TALK
A QUESTION ABOUT PROGRESSIVES Why Do They Seem To Hit At The Same Value?
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he question I have is why some progressives hit at the same number every time and others hit at a different number? This seems like cheating to me. I should be able to win a progressive jackpot on any slot at any number! James Berkoff—via email This is a great question James! We think this is very insightful and many of our readers are curious about the topic in general. We’ll provide you with an explanation based on the mathematics behind the design of progressive jackpots in order to answer your question. There are three basic types of progressives. Let’s identify them as Open-Ended, Must-Hit-By, and Maximum-Value. OpenEnded progressives have a starting amount (usually referred to as the base or reset value) and continue to climb until some event occurs and the amount displayed on the meter is awarded. Must-Hit-By progressives also have a base value and continue to climb until some event occurs and the amount displayed on the meter is awarded, or the must-hit-by value is reached and that value is awarded. Maximum-Value progressives are Open-Ended progressives with, obviously, a maximum value the meter will not climb over. As former slot machine game designers, we never liked Maximum-Value progressives because they give an impression the progressive is somehow set up. In any event, once any progressive’s value is awarded, the meter returns to the reset value and the process begins again. Regardless of how the event which awards a progressive actually occurs, there is always some mathematical probability associated with that event. So, let’s use a real-world analogy and keep things simple in order to explain how progressives tend to be awarded at approximately the same value. A standard deck of cards contains 52 different cards. We will associate the Ace of Hearts as the card which, when drawn, awards the progressive. The other 51 cards in the deck do not award anything. Therefore, the chances of awarding the progressive on a single draw of one card out of the deck, after randomly shuffling, is 1 in 52 or 0.0192 or 1.92%. The question now becomes, after how many draws of one card
06 Arizona Gaming Guide | January 2022 | azgamingguide.com
out of the randomly shuffled deck will the progressive be awarded? Any ideas? 52, anyone? Let’s prove why the answer is in fact 52! The chances of drawing the Ace of Hearts out of a randomly shuffled deck of cards is 1 in 52. There’s no arguing needed. That’s just mathematical fact. But, the way to reinforce this fact would be to actually shuffle a deck, draw one card, and record the outcome. If the drawn card is the Ace of Hearts, mark “P” for progressive. If not, mark “N” for not. Make sure to repeat this process at least 10,000 times. After recording at least 10,000 results, count up the number of “P” marks made and I’ll wager really good money you’ll have right around 192 “P” marks (remember the probability was 0.0192, or 1.92%). Exactly 192 of them? No, not every time you perform this experiment. But, perform the experiment over and over again and the combined results will show, on average, over time, when you draw from a randomly shuffled deck of cards, every 52nd draw will be the Ace of Hearts (10,000 divided by 192 is about 52). This is why a progressive seems to award at roughly the same value. But, due to randomness, individual outcomes will vary! The main difference with winning our Ace of Hearts progressive and a slot’s progressive is the chances are much smaller. More like 1 in 10,000, or 1 in 100,000. By the way, for now, slot machine regulations prevent the chances of the highest win on a game from surpassing 1 in 50,000,000! Have fun & good luck! $
