DECISION
MAKING
MODELS
2020
Mustafa Bahar
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DECISION-MAKING
MODELS?
WHY NOW?
*A VALUABLE PIECE OF YOUR OPERATIONAL TOOLBOX WHAT IS A GROUP DECISION MAKING? (COLLABORATIVE DECISION MAKING) Definition: is a situation faced when individuals collectively make a choice from the alternatives before them. The decision is then no longer attributable to any single individual who is a member of the group
Cohesiveness can be more specifically defined as the tendency for a group to be in unity while working towards a goal or to satisfy the emotional needs of its members.This definition includes important aspects of cohesiveness, including its multidimensionality, dynamic nature, instrumental basis, and emotional dimension Synergy; is the creation of a whole that is greater than the simple sum of its parts (Programmed-Non Programmed) Salat al-Istikharah:is a prayer recited by Muslims when in need of guidance on an issue in their life “And make counsel with them in the affair; so when you have decided, then place your trust in Allah; surely Allah loves those who trust”1 . Quran 3:159. “And those who respond to their Lord, keep up prayer, who consult among themselves, and who give out (to the poor) part of what we have given them”2 Quran 42:38.
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1. THE RATIONAL/
CLASSICAL MODEL: Definition: It is a rational model of decision-making that assumes that decision makers have access to complete information and are able to make an optimal decision by weighting every alternative. FEATURES 1. Problems are clear. 2. Objectives are clear. 3. People agree on criteria and weights. 4. All alternatives are known. 5. All consequences can be anticipated. 6. Decision makes are rational. STEPS 1. Listing All Alternatives. Not limited with time or resources. 2. Ranking Listed Alternatives. Cognitive Ability to recognize all the information. 3. Selecting the Best Suited Alternative. Because we believe we rank objectively, It’s possible to find the best solution; which maximizes the utility of the organization.
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2. BOUNDED RATIONALITY
MODEL /ADMINISTRATIVE
MAN MODEL:
Definition: In the foundation of the administrative model of decision-making lies the belief that decision makers often settle for a less than ideal solution because of time and motivation shortages. Instead of seeking the best solution that maximizes the value of the decision, the decision maker accepts the first available 'good enough' alternative producing a value above the minimally acceptable. The concept of settling for a less than perfect solution is clled satisficing. FEATURES 1. Progresses by The achievement of a goal 2. Better decisions only happens due to full info and desire and motivation. 3. Time and motivation Shortage 4. Herbert A. Simon If appropriate means are chosen to reach desired ends the decision is rational. 5. Heuristic (Good Assumptions) / Sequential Attention (One solution at a time) STEPS 1. Lack of Information/wisdom leads to limitations in time and motivation 2. Lowered Quality of Final Decision 3. Pros-Less time to reach a decision 4. Pros-Can still be efficient. 5. Pros-Cheaper and requires less resources.
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3. RETROSPECTIVE
DECISION MODEL
(IMPLICIT FAVORITE
MODEL): Definition: This decision-making model focuses on how decision-makers attempt to rationalize their choices after they have been made and try to justify their decisions.This model has been developed by Per Soelberg. FEATURES 1. Believe that your decision is rational 2.Justification is essential. Reasoning is valid. 3. Success and failure can be resulted. 4. All factors can be quantified and analyzed personal values, personality traits, psychological assessment, perception of the environment, institutional and judgmental capabilities and emotional interference must also be understood and credited FAILED STEPS 1. Indecisiveness. 2. Postponing decision until last moment. > Decision Plan 3. A failure to isolate the root cause of the problem 4. A failure to assess the reliability of informational sources 5. The method for analyzing the information may not be the sound one 6. Do implement the decision and follow through 7. IMPLEMENTATION : Assign > Deadlines> Evaluation Process > Contingency Plans
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4.THE VROOM-YETTON
-JAGO DECISION MODEL Definition: is the fact that not all decisions are created equal. Some decisions are extremely important and will require input from many people, while other decisions can be made quickly as they won’t have long-lasting effects on the organization as a whole. Understanding this basic concept is important, because you aren’t going to use the same decisionmaking process for all choices that you have to make. With the assistance of this model, you can customize your approach to decision making based on the situation at hand. FEATURES 1. Striving for the positive outcome. 2. Leadership style is as vital as decision model 3. Flexible and can be modified based on each proposition. 4.Extend of impact on individuals in organization = “Buy in” Internally 5. Time management “dictates” conducting enough research STEPS 1. Decision Quality. a. Where you think about how important it is to produce the right decision. b. Pick & Choose where to use your resources wisely. 2. Subordinate commitment a. Choose where to “include team members” in decision making. 3. Time constraints a. Develop a clear timeline 4. Decide which leadership style will be best for making this decision Autocratic / Consultative / Collaborative
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5. THE OODA LOOP Definition: This model is relatively simple and straightforward, but it can be highly effective. When you think about the operations of your organization in the frame of the OODA Loop, you will quickly see that you are never going to be finished making decisions. This model is a loop for a reason – it continues with no end in sight, for the life of the organization in question. FEATURES 1. Stay Open Minded 2. Don’t allow your personal orientation, or poor decision is very likely. 3. Progressive Decisions. 4. Act Ensure all affected ones are “on board” How you monitor implementation & after release. Reviewing & observing result –lessons learnt 5. This is Lifecycle Loop, so it never ends. STEPS 1. Observe 2. Orient a. Don’t Allow your personal experience get in the way to be update & upgraded about the circumstances. 3. Decide 4. Act
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6. THE RECOGNITION-
PRIMED (RDP)
DECISION MODEL Definition: (RPD) is a model of how people make quick, effective decisions when faced w/ complex situations. In this model, the decision maker is assumed to generate a possible course of action, compare it to the constraints imposed by the situation, and select the first course of action that is not rejected. RPD has been described in diverse groups FEATURES 1. Limited Time 2. Take it all in Gather Data Listen to those involved Is it changing over time? Assess Level of Urgency 3. Gathered Intelligence. 4. Generate alternative scenarios. 5. A solution which rectify the situation. STEPS 1. Experiencing the situation. a. Take it all in. b. Listen and Ask how they fix it the situation 2. Analyzing the situation. a. Don’t jump on the first idea that pops in your mind. b. Analytical Process c. Ask “triggering” questions for potential solutions inspired by past experiences. 3. Implementing the decision a. Timely manner. b. Plan must be practical. No Space for thoughts, ideas, etc.
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7.AND THE
OTHERS… Definition: There are many solution systems and there will be generated more as the technology supports. What matters the most is decision makers have to keep a certain progress to evaluate the efficiency of any given model.
Shared Decision Model The PACED (Problem-Alternatives-CriteriaEvaluate-Decision) Decision-Making Model The GREAT (Give-Review- Evaluate- Assess- Think) Making Model The DARE (Define-Assess- Respond- Evaluate) Decision Making Model The Incremental Model (Divide into small segments and combine them at the end) of Decision Making 1972* The Garbage Can Model (Chaos > First Solutions > Choice Opportunities) (Problems + Solutions + Participants + Choice Opportunities) of Decision Making Judicial Decision Making The Strategic Model (A Mix which is not reversable) The Attitudinal Model (Emotional) Legal Model (Heartless) Ethical Dilemma Decision Making The Uustal (Sensitivity – Judgment – Motivation – Action) The Baird (Rationality – Sensibility – Autonomy – Equality) (Ethical Lens Framework) The Rational Actor Model of Decision Making Instrumental rationality Desires> 1 Actions > 2 Beliefs > 3 Information
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8. THE LADDER
OF INFERENCE* Definition: to help you avoid making poor judgments based on your past experiences, biases, or other factors. You should be aiming to set aside as much personal influence as possible in order to make choices that are simply in the best interest of the organization as a whole. FEATURES 1. Seven ‘rungs’ on the ladder that is supposed to represent the common thought process that we go through while making decisions 2. All about tearing apart your lines of thinking in order to build them back up again on a better foundation. 3. You always want to be able to defend your decisions in business and using this tool will help you to do just that in the end. 4. Patience > Honesty > Open Mindness STEPS 1. Reality and facts a. Stop> To avoid to jumping conclusions b. Make sure you are at the bottom of the ladder. To do so, ask tough questions to bring the group down 2. Selected reality 3. Interpreted reality a. Separate Facts from Fiction 4. Assumptions 5. Conclusions 6. Beliefs 7. Actions
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CONCLUSION In Order to Have a Successful operation, You need your 4 main blocks functioning properly.
◦Decision Rights – Information ◦Motivators – Structure ◦Mapping - Flow ◦Open & Informal Culture - Relationships LEADS TO CULTURE CHANGE 1. Understand Current Culture 2. Decide Where we want to go a. Define its strategic direction b. Organizational culture look like c. Vision for the Organization’s Future d. How Culture change accomplish that vision 3. Must Decide to Change Behavior (Hardest Step)
BABY STEPS 1. Shift the dynamics a. Improve Decision Models 2. Make room for innovation a. Demand Feedback 3. Open the curtains a. Process transparently 4. Define Progress Flow Chart HOMEWORK 1. https://courses.lumenlearning.com/wmorganizationalbehavior/ FUTURE IDEA... Transformation of the organization to be able to respond to following questions: Can your organization generate information at any given time about social impact, project completions, overall motivation based on defined metrics?